Number one is trust.
We trust in that player.
Besides the top two picks, who we are cocksure to have great seasons, the trust comes in all forms.
Some drafters prefer Arenado because he has been consistent.
Some drafters prefer Lindor and Jose Ramirez because they believe in the continuation of five category goodness.
Some drafters prefer high ceilings and even more than a 'normal' first round return in Ronald Acuna Jr.
Some drafters prefer getting a lead in a category, such as Scherzer or Sale for strike outs or Trea Turner for stolen bases.
Some drafters prefer the sudden upturn and believe it will continue, as in Yelich, Martinez, Bregman, and Baez.
Whatever reasoning we utilize besides sheer numbers, trust is the main factor.
Number two is more deceiving. We somehow, fool ourselves into thinking that we will never find a better player than the player we draft first.
For winners, this is usually untrue.
Last year, there were several teams that drafted Clayton Kershaw with their first pick. (And remember just last year? The 'Big 4 Pitchers were Kershaw, Kluber, Scherzer, and Sale)
None of us thought that Jake deGrom was a first rounder.
Anyway, the teams that did start with Kershaw had a chance of winning if selecting Bregman in the fourth round, Merrifield in the fifth round, or Javy Baez in the 10th round.
All, future number one's.
During drafting season, we fool ourselves.
Never believing that a mere mortal 10th rounder will have first round numbers.
I'm partnering in a $1,000 DC with a friend.
We drafted 15th and selected Goldy and Bregman with our turn picks.
Our next turn, we took two more offensive players in Guerrero and Bellinger.
It wasn't till the next turn that we took our first Starter.
It was Miles Mikolas.
My friend lamented that in drafting Mikolas instead of two strike out artists that we were sure to lose the category.
This is how we fool ourselves.
Were we behind in strike outs after that round?
Hell yes!
But, somehow we under score the draft ahead of us.
44 rounds of draft ahead of us!
Mike Clevinger, Mike Foltynewicz, German Marquez, Blake Snell, Jose Berrios, Charlie Morton, Patrick Corbin, and James Paxton comprise half of the pitchers that had 200 K's last year.
All, available in rounds 6-50.
Somebody asked me, "Who can be this year's Javy Baez?"
I responded that Yoan Moncada may be a good bet.
He looked at me like I had just swallowed a turtle.
"Moncada?" Wayyyy too many strike outs! "Not enough contact!"
I'm guessing he would have had a negative reaction to ANY player I named.
I reminded him that Baez set a career high of striking out last year.
11th in baseball.
But nobody cares because of his terrific year.
I asked my friend who led baseball in striking out before Moncada.
He didn't know.
I reminded him that it was Aaron Judge. The same Aaron Judge who slugged 52 homers and rose to near first round status.
Strike outs are one statistic. A statistic that is DRILLED into us by experts as being BAD.
In fantasy, they're an out.
I tell my friends that I would much rather see Javy Baez missing on strike three than owning Joey Votto and seeing him take ball four with runners on second and third.
I know that it hurts my team more for that at bat. But I also know in other at bats, Baez will connect while Votto again takes a walk.
20 players with qualifying at bats last year had 80 or less strike outs. Only 20.
Of these 20 players, only three hit more than 20 homers (Ramirez, Rizzo, Gregorius).
And only one of those players resides in the first round (Ramirez)
Contact is wayyy over rated.
By the way, here is a list of the players with least strike outs in qualifying at bats the last three years....
2018- Andrelton Simmons
2017- Joe Panik
2016- Joe Panik
Not exactly fantasy goodness.
It is what the players do when making contact that matters.
And if wanting contact so bad, why do experts tell us how wonderful the BB is? So peculiar.
And again I have gotten off subject. (This kind of post drives real writers crazy)
First rounders are fluid.
Our job is to find first rounders in other rounds.
It happens EVERY year.
We don't believe it till we see it.
But if trusting our first round pick and adding other first rounders along the way, a Main Event League Championship and Overall contention can be yours.
