Modern Day Drafting

[DOUGHBOYS]

I love drafting. Maybe even more than the pursuit of trying to win a league.
You may laugh.
But, I know a fella that drafted almost 30 NFBC teams last year, then tried to do minimal work in in-season management, lineups and FAAB.
THAT is a guy who likes drafting more than any other part of our hobby.
We try to be bank thieves in drafts. We start out by not caring about 'the small bills'. We only want the best.
As the drafts go on, the drafters differ in what truly is 'the best'.

I have a friend who thinks Nick Pivetta is a steal for this upcoming season. He'll get in some early drafts to divine where Pivetta will be taken, so that he can pounce on him later in the more important drafts.
When asking him what he expected of Pivetta for next year, he replied that 200ip, 200k, with a 1.25 WHIP and 3.25 E.R.A. seemed reasonable.
I told him that if truly believing that, he would make sure to collar Pivetta in EVERY draft. Even Over drafting him to get those numbers for his team.
He said that he couldn't. He believed that he was one of the few that was 'in' on Pivetta. He also said he was greedy and that even though, in his mind, Pivetta would return third or fourth round numbers next year, he liked the thought of getting him in the 20th round.
Unfortunately for my friend, he is not alone on being 'in' on Pivetta.
Pivetta was drafted in the twelfth round of a current draft.

In my first draft this year, I considered selecting Joey Votto.
Never before this because I considered Votto as being way over drafted since acquiring the love for strolls to first base.
I couldn't stand the thought of a first, second, or third round pick preferring a walk than helping my RBI totals.
But after his dreadful last season (did you notice it was dreadful, yet maintained his love for walks? Double Whammy!), Votto has fallen in drafters minds.
He was taken in the seventh round of the first PreMature Draft.
In that round, Votto becomes a character actor on our playlist, not the star.
I can tolerate that.
So don't be surprised that in one or two drafts this year.... I select Votto (Wow, that was hard to write)

Managers are really starting to screw with fantasy baseball. Back in the day, the best nine players would take the field almost every day.
Not now.
Now Managers try to be a part of the game.
They shift.
They platoon.
They over use their bullpen to nauseam.
They have effected our game in another way too.
The Catcher.
It is hard to be an every day catcher in this day and age. Now, a Manager may feel like a pitcher throws better with a certain catcher.
Hence, 'personal catcher'.
And now 'framing' is important to Managers. Framing a pitch or even being a good defensive catcher has nothing to do with our game.
Or does it?
Gary Sanchez will get less time because he is not a good defensive catcher.
Tyler Flowers misses starts because his teammate is a better 'framer'.
Catcher was a backseat position for drafters in the past, now, they are in the trunk.
There are 30 teams in baseball, but only six catchers had qualifying at bats last year. Only 10 catchers mustered even 400 at bats last year.

I have vowed to not to draft likely platoon players highly this year. Drives me crazy.
Kyle Schwarber can hit 40 or 45 homers like Joey Gallo can.
But does not get the chance. He has a Manager that wants to prove that he is smart by pitting righties vs lefties and lefties vs righties.
Schwarber is a free swinger. Like Gallo, it doesn't matter if a lefty or righty is throwing. If making good contact, the ball will go a long way.
The Skippers that played their best nine players knew this.
They also knew that with more looks against lefties, a left handed batter would be more educated about them and learn tricks to become a better hitter.
For fantasy purposes, a player like Schwarber becomes a headache.
If going into a three game series facing two righties, his owner has to decide between him and a possible three game starter.
If going into a three game series vs. two lefties, he is almost a sure sit.
The three homers hit in that series go as 'waste stats'. Meaning it happened, but it didn't happen for his owners.
By the end of the year, Schwarber has hit 26 homers, but eight of those were wasted stats.

The season-long game gets tougher every year.
Heck, we used to look at Starting pitchers of a game to see which team had the big advantage that day.
Who has the advantage if the Starters are Ryne Stanek vs. Ryan Tepera?
Oh sorry, those are 'Openers' not Starters.
Another arena where Managers are showing how smart they are.
By the way, have you also noticed that 'Manager decisions' have become 'Organizational decisions'.
EVERYBODY wants to be smart now!
It used to be that the Manager had the say in whatever goes on, on the field.
Gone.
It's a different day and different game for us, especially.
We have to put all these thoughts into the drafting of a player.
And like the Manager, we have to pretend like we're smart when making these decisions.

[Thurman15]

Good points Doughboys. Too many Managers trying to show how smart they are. But it can backfire. If Tampa wants to sign a free agent starter, how will it go over when they tell him "yes you will be a starter, but you won't actually start till the 3rd inning". If the pitcher is good enough, he won't sign in Tampa with that arrangement. Then we have the Angels going with a 6 man rotation. So Dallas Keuchel is interested in signing with the Angels, but he is told "you only start every 6 days" (often 7 days with with off days). You think he will sign there ? No way. So these "innovative" teams can be hurt by their "genius managers"

Thank goodness the rosters don't get expanded. A larger bench would be an invitation for some Managers to platoon half their hitters. And how many lefty hitters never learn to hit lefthanders, not because they can't learn, but because they never get the chance. Just too many Managers trying to get noticed by changing the game.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Agreed.
The Managers role has also changed in other ways. The General Manager or President of operations has never had their paws on on-field situations like they do now.
Some teams have the Manager and General Manager meeting almost every day!
Back in the day, the General Manager fostered the talent, the Manager brought it out and used that talent to its fullest extent on the field.
Managers are also cheerleading more than leading. The players are paid too much to really be told what to do.
Not hustling? That may 'cost' a player a Start. If a star like Manny Machado, it is now acceptable by brass, Watching Dave Roberts avoid talking of Machado's lack of hustle in the playoffs, beyond amusing.

What about us in fantasy?
The Managers trying to be too smart with platoons, shifts, and at ease resting, or substituting, has changed our game.
The draft, once the ultimate indicator on a full season fantasy season has diminished in percentage of importance.
It still is the most important factor, After all, without the foundation of a great fantasy team that the draft provides, there simply is no great fantasy team.
BUT, In-Season management is becoming more and more important.
Annually, I look back at my own managing prowess.
Without looking, I know that there was a series in which I benched Marwin Gonzalez and he went off and had a one homer, five rbi game.
Then there was the two game series for a slumping Ozzie Albies in which he had two homers.
Those make us feel like crap.
But in looking at my players stats, I did a pretty good job.
I was especially proud of Kiki Hernandez hitting almost .400 in his starts and below .200 on my bench.
And that Matt Davidson was productive each time in playing against the Royals.
Major League Managers have made us follow in their reckoning.
If Steven Souza was playing in a series vs. three right handed pitchers, our lineups suffered if he had to be in our own lineups.
Now, more than ever, it is tougher for us to 'carry' injured players or minor league prospects that take an unproductive seat on our bench.
Last year, Paul DeJong got hurt and was supposed to be out for six weeks.
It was fairly early in the season.
The decision was tough for DeJong owners.
Carry him for six weeks or cut him.
I cut him.
In today's environment, I will get more 'play' or stats with that bench spot than I would with six weeks of DeJong gone and eight weeks of DeJong playing.
Earlier in NFBC seasons, I would have held DeJong.
I believe that NFBC owners with six injured players on their bench are only torturing themselves.
Those players are dead numbers.
Dead numbers are a fantasy teams worst enemy.

[fwicker]

Thanks for the great posts, they are entertaining and illuminating reading. I agree with you on drafting being the key element:

I was in a Main event with you this year (that you won); I had the number 1 draft and I left the room thinking that I had really stolen it from you and several other excellent players. My first 12 were Trout, DeGrom, Carrasco, Rendon, Posey (too high but he was now going to have Longoria hitting behind him and McCutchen ahead of him, Price, Iglesias, Villar, DSantana, Bruce and Eaton. The last three turned out to be disastrous, and Posey may have been wishful thinking. I later took a gamble on Greg Holland that also didn't pan out. I know that there's a lesson on drafting in here somewhere and maybe it's that I took 4 pitchers before my 2nd outfielder (in some drafts OF is drained early).

But it's a lot of fun both to draft and do the post-mortem both after the draft and after the season.

Another thing I'm figuring out for the Mains is it pays to be a grinder, i.e. make speculative FAAB pickups. When I looked back on this draft I made half the moves that you and John Pausma did.

And BTW it was nice meeting you in Las Vegas.

[DOUGHBOYS]

It was wonderful meeting you as well!
Wow, that was a tough league. I'm proud to have done as well as I did.
There were three top five round players that I thought were exorbitantly priced.
Trea Turner, Buster Posey, and Joey Votto.
I felt that none of those players could possibly return the numbers where drafted.
I'm not beating my chest. I just really felt that they were going WAAYY too highly.
A drafter who chose Posey in another draft that day was actually pleased with him at seasons end. He had drafted enough power and was happy to get Posey's average from a position that had little.

In season management is becoming increasingly more important. And that includes taking flyers on some players.
It's funny, Ervin Santana was available as a free agent and I passed.
I have a history with Santana. I never could get in sync with his starts. Although he may be a good pitcher, it really doesn't help me if I have his good starts on the bench and bad starts in my lineup!
One year, Santana threw a no-hitter...He was on my bench!
So, I prefer a lesser pitcher that better suits my needs.
By the way, I really don't mind Votto and Posey's price in early drafts this year. A much better price point for them.
As for Turner.....No way (again).

Edit-
In an early draft this year, I drafted out of the 15 position.
Trea Turner was still on the board.
He was not even a thought to me.
In fact, I still had three shortstop eligible players ahead of him.
For a first rounder, he gives above average numbers in stolen bases, average numbers for Runs, and below average numbers in HR, RBI, and AVG.
Why would I want below average numbers in three categories from a first round draft choice?
Mispriced.
After that round was over, I asked myself when Turner WOULD become a thought.
It was right around the turn of the second round into the third round.
He is very much like Marte and Merrifield, yet his price is a lot higher.
Marte and Merrifield play positions MUCH less rich than shortstop is this year.
Much rather take a shot on them if wanting speed early.
I don't understand the (al)lure of Turner.
He played a full year without injury last year, he did not return first round numbers.
Yet, there he is in the first round in most drafts this year.
As said, I don't get it.

[Bronx Yankees]

Hey, Dan. I need a mental break in my work day, so I'll take a stab at describing the allure of Trea Turner. I grabbed Turner early in one league last year and, while he under-performed his draft position, he was not the reason I lost that league. In fact, he had a pretty solid year, although admittedly was drafted too high.

I think the allure primarily is that: (a) speed is scarce; (b) Turner is a high-upside pick, which is particularly attractive in contests with an overall prize; (c) Turner's SB upside probably is north of 60 SB and maybe 70 SB (neither of which he has hit yet, but he still is young and arguably not yet in his prime); (d) unlike other "Judy" players with high SB potential (e.g., Dee Gordon, Billy Hamilton), Turner contributes in other categories; and (e) in most drafts, power was far more plentiful than speed in later rounds. Last year, Turner played 162 games (thereby hopefully shedding the misapplied health risk label); hit 19 home runs (better than most SS although I also largely discount positional scarcity except at catcher); scored 103 runs (which is excellent production in that category); had 73 RBI (which is a solid number for someone usually hitting at or near the top of the lineup); had 43 SB (second in MLB with a very-good success ratio); and hit .271 (which, while not great for a first round pick, is better than average in today's game). While some will point to a potential 30/100/100/20/.300 season as beautiful, five-category production, a potential 20/110/60/50/.270 season probably is more valuable in today's game.

I'm not sure how much weight you or others should put in various player raters. I have reservations myself. But, just to continue this discussion, I looked at the ESPN player rater for 2018. Turner's 19/103/73/43/.271 slash line had him ranked 19th most valuable of all MLB players (hitters and pitchers) last year, ahead of guys like Manny Machado, Gerrit Cole, Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman, Alex Bregman, Charlie Blackmon, Andrew Benintendi, etc. Not saying Turner is better than all of these guys, but it is one way of reflecting his value. In many drafts last year, Turner went anywhere from third to fifth. So did Arenado. While neither returned his draft value, Turner arguably had the slightly more valuable season. Getting arguably high-2nd round value out of a 1st round pick is not a bad outcome; many other 1st rounders did not sniff such high production.

Looking ahead to 2019, with health, one easily could see Turner improving on his 2018 stat line. Indeed, the potential absence of Bryce Harper is likely to result in more SB attempts. That being said, he also could regress. We don't know how Turner will do compared to 2018, although the same can be said about all players.

The earlier draft you mention, where you picked 15th, is one that I was in, too. I loved your picks at 15, and also would have passed on Turner to draft the hitter you selected. That being said, I easily could see - and justify - Turner being picked with a first round ADP. In the second round this coming year, there likely will be some big hitters with little to no speed, such Judge, Stanton, Goldschmidt, Freeman, etc. If going hitter/hitter with your first two picks, it arguably would make sense to grab a guy like Turner in Round 1 and a big bat in Round 2, rather than take certain hitters with little speed in Round 1 and another big bat. You definitely could argue otherwise, and these options also do not include taking an SP in the first two picks, which also is a very viable (if not advisable) strategy. Like many fantasy baseball debates, it also partially comes down to roster construction. There are few players that can have as big a categorical impact as Turner, and several others do far more damage to other categories than he does.

Interesting debate. OK, back to work for me.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Hi Mike,
Love it!
You point to Turner's 'contributions'.
The 19 homers, the 73 rbi, the .271 batting average. Which all are fine if I was getting them in 13TH ROUND!
Let's face it, Turner is being drafted for his speed and the fact that he hits more homers than Gordon or Hamilton is what makes him alluring.
I feel it's a trap.
Last year, you are correct, there were a lot of power guys (while sacrificing batting average) late.
In our drafts this year and at the end of the year last year, I noticed that there was speed to be had.
I don't think that Turner really offers anything more than Merrifield or Marte.
I believe the hype from two years ago is what really is making him a first round draft choice.
Did you see the selection of shortstops this year?
Andrelton Simmons was taken in the teens rounds in drafts.
His .277/77/14/69/19 stats from a year ago are not far from Turner's stats, except for stolen bases.
He 'contributes' those numbers from the teen rounds. The Teen rounds!
Make no mistake about it. it is only Turner's speed and hype that keeps him in the first round.

I don't know what Turner will do in the future. Nobody does.
But he played in every game last year. We can't really expect his numbers to go up.
Sure, circumstances can intervene where the Nationals become a running team, but it's doubtful.
There really are no running teams in this era.
The long ball is king.
Turner can steal 70 bases. So can Gordon. So can Hamilton.
But speed is being set aside.
Hamilton, Gordon, and even Turner were dropped in their batting orders last year.
Speed at the top, no longer necessary.
40 is the new 70 for stolen bases.
40 stolen bases does not set Turner or Gordon or Merrifield really apart from others.
The field is more bunched.
Simmons and his 19 stolen bases or even 11 in the teen rounds are a lot more appealing to me, with his contributions from the teens rounds, more appealing than spending a first round pick on Turner for his.

I love the debate, Mike!
Thanks and anytime work time doldrums hit you, I'm always here to talk ANY baseball!!!

[DOUGHBOYS]

PS-
Every player rater I have ever seen gives the stolen base WAYYY too much weight.
I believe it is so that they can include base stealers with the 'Big boys'. Almost always a fail.

[Thurman15]

Well Doughboys, as a 3 year NFBC man, I've read a lot of your stuff. You obviously know baseball well, and have had success in Fantasy Baseball. I like what you write, but this time I really disagree. I would absolutely take Trea Turner in the 1st round. Between roughly 11-14 overall. Here are my reasons.
First, stolen bases don't grow on trees, and Trea was 2nd in all of baseball with 43. There were only 11 players who stole more than 28 and half of them run a real risk of being a part time player. Turner is one that we know will indeed play full time. The 11 include Dee Gordon, Mallex Smith, Jon Villar, Adalberto Mondesi, and Billy Hamilton. Any in that group mightbe limited to a part time role. (some are obvious....I include Mondesi because with that horrendous strikeout to walk ratio, he runs the risk of being Byron Buxton) The bloom is off the rose for Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton. (they can't hit)

2nd reason, Trea does indeed have some power. You can't just write off 19 home runs. 73 RBI. And he scored over 100 runs.

3rd, Trea is still young, and might improve. But if not, his numbers are excellent.

4th Trea Turner takes walks, unlike Mondesi, Dee Gordon and Starlin Marte....and others. Gives him more chance to steal and more chances to score runs.

What I don't understand is why anyone would take Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper or Aaron Judge ahead of Trea Turner. I'm a monster Yankee fan and I love Aaron Judge but he is not a 1st round pick in my opinion. Giancarlo....well...lets just say I'm praying he is not an albatross contract. Bryce Harper is simple. Just look at his numbers. He has had 1 excellent year. The rest are all good. He is a very good hitter. He walks a ton. But that does not make him a 1st round pick.

The moral of my story is Trea Turner is underrated. Your thoughts are the opposite. No problem to differ. But just as you are thinking "how can this guy think Trea Turner is so good" I'm thinking, "Dough has a real solid knowledge of the NFBC, but how can he not think Trea Turner is a 1st round pick." I do a few drafts, I like MTM Fast drafts, but in Vegas I'm there for the auctions.....and I'll be bidding on Trea Turner LOL

[DOUGHBOYS]

You'll get it.
You won't get it now.
You may not get it next year.
Most get it after rostering a guy like Turner.
I've seen it many times.
With Hamilton, Gordon, Juan Pierre, Carl Crawford. I believe Pierre and Crawford went in the first rounds because they were so blessed with steals.
It is ONE category. One.
When Crawford went in the first round, the same thing was said about him as what they say about Turner now.
He's sexy.
And men are driven by sex.
But, when we get older, we can put sex in its place and become more, shall we say, practical.

There were hardly any teams drafting Turner that did well last year.
And he played in almost EVERY GAME!
Turner cannot play in more games than he did last year, yet drafters are expecting better results?
What?
He gets beat like a drum in three categories by most other first rounders.
Even by some second rounders. And some third.
Johan Camargo had 19 homers and more rbi than Turner.
He can be had closer to the 18th round.
Let's face it, Turner drafters draft Turner because of speed.
One category. One.

And, his speed is very sexy....until the season begins.
Then, you find out that guys like Judge, Harper, and Stanton are continually putting up three categories.
Turner is not.
Turner is usually having a 4-1-1-0 box score with or without a stolen base.
Woo hoo.

Last year, Turner was taken third or fourth overall in most drafts.
His drafters got a complete season out of him.
Hardly missed a game.
Now, he is going between the tenth and 16th picks.
There's a reason for that.
Turner's drafters of last year realized that sexy does not win NFBC leagues.
And that how much more can be asked from a player who never got hurt last year?
Turner is what he is. An opportunistic base stealer.
He was never a prolific thief in the minors.
In fact his high's for his career happened in the Big Leagues.
Bill James lists 13 other base stealers as being faster than Turner.
Miguel Andujar is being drafted in the fifth round. He beat Turner soundly in three categories last year.
But, most will focus on the speed. One element.
It's sexy.
Ann-Margaret sexy.
But Ann never won an NFBC Championship and most who draft Trea Turner, will suffer the same fate.

You'll get it.
You won't get it soon.
But you will.
After you've paid your money.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Upon further review....I am even more resolute.
Turner's numbers are close to that of Starling Marte's numbers.
Marte played 17 less games.
Turner cannot play more games than last year. Marte can.
How can folks expect more from Turner this year?
Turner is simply Turner. A nice speed guy that can hit a little bit.
Marte has the same description. Only he is classified in ADP better.
Trevor Story is hardly ever taken in the first round.
He kills Turner in three categories, Turner has an advantage in Runs and SB's
Why draft the two category player when there is more to be had?
Going by last year, is 16 stolen bases and 14 Runs more important than TWICE AS MANY Home Runs, 37 more RBI and 20 points of batting average?
When Turner is taken in the second or third round next year (because his drop will be slow), I'll probably still have reservations about taking him.
I've seen what Turner can do in playing 162 games. It is/was not first round worthy.

As said, you cannot change my mind. You will not change yours. It'll take a year of over drafting Turner to do that.

[Thurman15]

Well I'm about to go in another MTM fast draft. I'm not AIMING for Trea Turner, but if I get 12-15 for my first pick, there is a good chance I'll take him. I definitely won't be taking Judge, Stanton or Harper. I'd love those guys in the 2nd round....never the first. But I didn't own Trea Turner last year, so possibly I will be disappointed. We'll see. You have good points. But I'm still a Trea Turner fan. LOL. Maybe we will meet in Vegas and I'll tell you how many times I got Turner. Of course I'd rather have a few of the elites more than Trea. Good luck, keep posting. Lots to talk about. Today alone, the Baseball world is churning fast.

[DOUGHBOYS]

YAY!
SOME REAL BASEBALL NEWS!
'Bout time!
I believe the Mets are being the Mets again with the whole Cano deal.
So political.
Cano, who put his agent on the map is now getting rewarded by that very same agent, now that he is GM of the Mets!
Cannot make this stuff up.
At best, the Mets are getting a real good Closer.
At worst, they are over paying for a players back end of contract, saying bye bye to their last three first round draft picks, and possibly retarding the growth of McNeil or Alonso.
What in the world?!

[DDK]

I can't wait to draft Turner! I hear he's been working out really hard.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Is he.....Wait for it.......Wait for it....

IN THE BEST SHAPE OF HIS LIFE

Way to beat the Spring Training writers, Dorian!

[mbendar16]

Mike touched on it briefly, but the allure of Turner is much higher in an overall contest than a league. If he does live up to his max potential, it's maybe 1 or 2 league points in steals, but possibly 50-100 points overall. If he has last year's season, those 40-50 steals does exactly what it should if formulating that draft plan from an overall perspective.

With steals becoming more scarce each year, Turner will continue to be a 1st round pick as long as the steals are at least 40. It's why Altuve and Goldschmidt have the ability to be great picks if their steal totals rebound to previous year levels.

With this noted, I don't value speed as much as I should, and as such, Turner will likely not be on any of my teams this season

[DOUGHBOYS]

Mike touched on it briefly, but the allure of Turner is much higher in an overall contest than a league. If he does live up to his max potential, it's maybe 1 or 2 league points in steals, but possibly 50-100 points overall. If he has last year's season, those 40-50 steals does exactly what it should if formulating that draft plan from an overall perspective.

With steals becoming more scarce each year, Turner will continue to be a 1st round pick as long as the steals are at least 40. It's why Altuve and Goldschmidt have the ability to be great picks if their steal totals rebound to previous year levels.

With this noted, I don't value speed as much as I should, and as such, Turner will likely not be on any of my teams this season

I get it. And I get why he is being selected too high. Speed is a seducer.
At the same time, it is unfair to compare Turner to either Goldschmidt or Altuve.
They both have around a .300 batting average that can be counted on.
I can see Turner's batting average diminishing further (Omigosh! Somebody said that Turner may do WORSE next year, not better!) if falling into the trap of actually trying to hit more homers.

Goldy and Altuve have also passed the test of time. Turner has not.
I get the roster construction angle.
I nmost cases though, drafting Turner means bypassing a number one pitcher or a slugger with average.
Those are four category players folk!
At best, Turner is a two category player.
The speed is sexy, sure. But....Speed kills!
Especially in the first round.

[DOUGHBOYS]

The other day while drafting, a drafter selected Whit Merrifield and told the league" Trea Turner Lite!"
I responded, "Nope, Trea Turner... period"
Over the last two years, Merrifield has over 100 more at bats, but look at this comp.
These are the last two year statistics of Turner and Merrifield.

Turner.......275/178/30/118/89
Merrifield..298/168/31/138/79

Let's also add Starling Marte's last two non-PED years...

Marte...290/152/29/118/80

Merrifield and Marte ARE Trea Turner.
They simply do not have Turner's hype or price tag.
Merrifield and Marte are like buying $40 Payless Shoes, while somebody buys the same shoes on Rodeo Drive for hundreds of dollars in Turner.

Turner drafters are allowing hype to cloud judgment.
They're willing to over pay for that hype.
I'd rather open the classic book, 'Great Expectations' than use drafting techniques of the same title.
There were many Merrifield and Marte owners who won large dollar leagues last year, few with Turner.

Next, Chris Sale.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Chris Sale has been a popular pick this early draft season.
Strike outs galore!
Pitches for a great team!
Wins!

But,....BUT, the wheels are getting wobbly.
Sale was hurt last year.
An August and September where he vanished.
In the past, he hasn't gotten injured....he has faded.
Over the last three years, Sales's September E.R.A. is 4.17
Sale owners virtually lose an Ace when they need him most.

Sale starts every year like a ball of fire.
Ends them like a flickering match.
Now that injury has entered the fray, I'll look elsewhere.

[Thurman15]

We agree on this one Dan. I'm not touching Chris Sale this year. I've always had him on one or more teams in the past, but with injuries creeping in, and I thought he had a slight velocity drop, he can't be trusted to be elite again. He MIGHT, but then again he might not. I see his price (draft or auction) staying the same this year, so I won't be buying him. Also Corey Kluber....less strikeouts, velocity drop, 32 years old......but may go just as high as he usually does, so I'm out. Kershaw....out.....Bumgarner...out !! All still good pitchers, but all declining a bit.

[DOUGHBOYS]

We agree on this one Dan. I'm not touching Chris Sale this year. I've always had him on one or more teams in the past, but with injuries creeping in, and I thought he had a slight velocity drop, he can't be trusted to be elite again. He MIGHT, but then again he might not. I see his price (draft or auction) staying the same this year, so I won't be buying him. Also Corey Kluber....less strikeouts, velocity drop, 32 years old......but may go just as high as he usually does, so I'm out. Kershaw....out.....Bumgarner...out !! All still good pitchers, but all declining a bit.

Well good, it's good that you came around to your senses!

There was a drafter in a recent draft that stated players shouldn't shift too much between now and April.
I didn't say anything back in chat, BUT ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!
Look, let's take Jonathon Schoop.
He is languishing around the 15th round area. Nobody knows what to expect from him.
Let's say that Schoop signs with the Rockies.
Two Huge dominoes fall and rise.
Schoop becomes a top 10 round pick. Instantly.
Nobody STILL knows what to think of him. We just know we think of him more in Colorado.
AND....Poor Garrett Hampson. His 12th round adp falls to below 20 round adp
One signing. Two giant shifts.

Sometimes drafters are like 70 Year old Grannies who have made a recipe one way their whole life.
Change is all around them, but they believe in what they have done in the past to work for the future.
It even happens to writers.
Case in point is Eric Karabell.
I swear this guy has never evolved from a fantasy standpoint.
Yes, I know he has NFBC friends and he's probably a nice guy.
Great.
BUT, I can find statements he made 15 years ago that he still touts today.
For instance, waiting on relievers.
Here are some lines from Karabell....

NOT-TO-EARLY 2019 Rankings: 'My first relief pitchers do not show up in the first five rounds of my rankings. Jansen, Kimbrel, Diaz and Treinen feel like a top tier on their own, but more like Round 8 or so. If I do not get them at all, so be it. Give me JosPene Leclerc and Kirby Yates 15 rounds later! Perhaps Mr. Rodney sticks around and finds work as a closer somewhere.'

Does Karabell really play against drafters who take Yates and LeClerc 15 rounds later? 23rd Round?
No wonder he can win some leagues!
Seriously?
Get in touch, Eric!
There are also some times when wanting a first rate Closer.
If Diaz falls to round six or seven, you wouldn't select him?
C'mon.
You treat your readers like morons.
Each draft is different, Telling readers that stuff is ludicrous.
The game has evolved.
Karabell has stated the same things every year.
No change.
Try another recipe,Eric. You may like it.

[SpinningSeams]

The other day while drafting, a drafter selected Whit Merrifield and told the league" Trea Turner Lite!"
I responded, "Nope, Trea Turner... period"
Over the last two years, Merrifield has over 100 more at bats, but look at this comp.
These are the last two year statistics of Turner and Merrifield.

Turner.......275/178/30/118/89
Merrifield..298/168/31/138/79

Let's also add Starling Marte's last two non-PED years...

Marte...290/152/29/118/80

Merrifield and Marte ARE Trea Turner.
They simply do not have Turner's hype or price tag.
Merrifield and Marte are like buying $40 Payless Shoes, while somebody buys the same shoes on Rodeo Drive for hundreds of dollars in Turner.

Turner drafters are allowing hype to cloud judgment.
They're willing to over pay for that hype.
I'd rather open the classic book, 'Great Expectations' than use drafting techniques of the same title.
There were many Merrifield and Marte owners who won large dollar leagues last year, few with Turner.

Next, Chris Sale.

Delusional Turner Disorder. I had it once, thankfully I am cured.

[SpinningSeams]

I love drafting. Maybe even more than the pursuit of trying to win a league.
You may laugh.
But, I know a fella that drafted almost 30 NFBC teams last year, then tried to do minimal work in in-season management, lineups and FAAB.
THAT is a guy who likes drafting more than any other part of our hobby.
We try to be bank thieves in drafts. We start out by not caring about 'the small bills'. We only want the best.
As the drafts go on, the drafters differ in what truly is 'the best'.

What is the record for number of drafts a person enters in the first month of Draft Champion Leagues being open?

Asking, for a friend.