Mondesi, Predictions, and My Two Cents....

[DOUGHBOYS]

We all have opinions.
AND, we think our opinions are righter than other opinions.
Same in fantasy baseball.
Adalberto Mondesi was taken in the second round of the PreMature Draft.
No big deal.
For a month or two at the Big league level, Mondesi dominated hitting home runs and stealing bases.
It's really easy to see how a drafter could fall in love with the skill set.
I seriously don't have a problem with a drafter falling in love with this skill set.

I do have a problem with what will follow in the coming weeks.
The predictors. The prognosticators. The forecasters.
Do they really help on a player like Mondesi?
The fellow drafting Mondesi in the second round is expecting a 25/75 type year or something close to that.
I don't do forecasts, but if I were for Mondesi, it would be more a long the lines of 10/25
I know, I know, you say he beat that in just two months this year.
In my mind, starting a new year is different. Pitchers have more of a 'book' on a hitter and also I wait on human nature.
Meaning that is in Mondesi's nature to miss time. He's had leg problems, shoulder problems, concussion, hamstrings, back problems, a 50 game suspension, and family emergency problems.
Some Big leaguers go through a whole career with half the maladies.
Mondesi has yet to see 400 at bats since reaching AA.
He has only played more than 110 games once since turning professional.

The predictors. The prognosticators. The forecasters. They will set their numbers in between those of the 10/25 Mondesi 'detractors' and the 25/75 of the avid Mondesi backers.
How does that possibly help fantasy players?
Does being in the middle really help anything?
If anything, it says look how well one can sit on a fence.
These folks don't want to be wrong, so their numbers do not disagree with either the detractors or backers.
Their cautious approach will have them give Acuna Jr. numbers like 30/25.
It is easy to think that Acuna Jr. had 433 at bats and next year, it'll probably be 550, so just add a few home runs and stolen bases.
WE can do that!
I guess what I'm asking from The predictors. The prognosticators. The forecasters is to have some balls!
Back some players!
If believing that Max Scherzer will again strike out 300 batters...WRITE IT!
Don't sell out and say 225.
We all know he can strike out 225.
Let us know that you REALLY back a player by giving him numbers that show you back him.
If not believing in Mondesi's ability to produce like I don't think he will...WRITE IT!
If being a Mondesi backer...WRITE IT!
It is so easy for predictors and even these idiots on twitter to judge a draft pick like Mondesi, but I give that drafter credit for having the cahones to draft Mondesi highly.
I respect that much more than middling predictions signifying nothing.
Just my two cents....

[DOUGHBOYS]

Just to follow up on this.....

I've already seen some projections for 2019. Kinda stupid.
I know, I know...they can be changed and modified with any changes that come with the off season.
Still, everybody should know those projections anyway.
If a player has a great year, a projector will put him down for a little less the coming year.
If a player did not have a good year, the projector has better numbers in store for them the next year.
Projectors do NOT help in making decisions for fantasy drafts.

Pre-draft choices contain three items that every drafter should have.

1. Study.
If studying, you will know about what each player can accomplish during the coming year.

2. Intuition.
This is hardly ever talked about.
A drafter can do his study, know the player and come up with a second round ranking in his head.
A different drafter can do the same study and come up with the player being no better than a sixth round draft choice.
Intuition, not study is what really sets most of us apart.

3. Luck.
If I am drafting in the 2019 Main Event draft and have the number four selection, I can throw out Trout and Betts,
So I set my sights on Lindor or Yelich.
I really, really, really want Lindor.
But he gets taken.
I select Yelich as my 'door prize'.
BUT Lindor is hurt over half the season and Yelich repeats last year. I win the Overall.
Everybody says how smart I am!
But I know it was just dumb luck that I ended up with a healthy first rounder all year.

[Atlas]

Interesting that you come up with Lindor and Yelich.
Recently heard those names in a conversation regarding PEDs.
Let the prognosticators factor THAT into their predictions.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Interesting that you come up with Lindor and Yelich.
Recently heard those names in a conversation regarding PEDs.
Let the prognosticators factor THAT into their predictions.

Really, any player putting up numbers beyond our scope seems to be fair game for a PED discussion.