Stuff

[DOUGHBOYS]

A down hitting year for Major League Baseball?......

It looks like no player will get 200 hits...

Jose Altuve had 200 hits the previous four seasons

(JD Martinez, Mookie Betts have 172 hits this season)

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It looks like no player will hit 50 home runs...

Giancarlo Stanton had 59 last year, Aaron Judge had 52

(Khris Davis 41, Martinez 40 this season)

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It looks like nobody will steal 50 bases

Last year, Dee Gordon stole 60 with Billy Hamilton one behind at 59

(Trea Turner has 37 this season)

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Two players are hitting above .317 this season

Last year, seven players hit .320 or more

(Only Betts and Martinez this year)

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Other things that are interesting.......

Blake Snell has won 18 games.
While it is true that Snell has pitched exceptionally well this season, the Wins, themselves can be considered lucky.
Snell averages less than six innings per start. Leaving almost 40 percent of the fate of his leads in ball games in the hands of the Rays bullpen....

Chris Sale AVERAGES three strike outs every two innings (146 inn, 219 K's).
More amazing, in Sale's 44 innings leading up to his injury, he gave up one run....and struck out 79 hitters.
Sale has allowed more than six hits just one time this season. Only one run was allowed in that game and Sale won the game.
Sale has also gone almost 70 innings since allowing his last home run.
I know that sabrs love digging into Jake deGrom's feats to disspell the Wins category, but Sale has had a truly terrific year( and only 12 Wins).

Ben Zobrist is third in batting average in the National League.
Zobrist's line is .313/60/9/55/2
Zobrist has to hustle to get the the required plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.
If Zobrist does indded when the crown, he will become the most irrelevant batting Champion during the fantasy era.
Fantasy era, I like that.
In more at bats, last year, Zobrist hit .232
Batting average has become the hardest roto category to predict.

Only three National League pitchers have more than 14 Wins (Scherzer, 17, Nola,16 Lester, 15).
Wins are shriveling up.
Last year, Corey Kluber was the only pitcher to average seven innings a start.
He have become the last pitcher who will ever do that.
Most starters this year, are averaging less than six innings per start.
(Remember when we laughed at the 'Quality Start' statistic? I know I did.)
'Openers' have even become a thing.
Ryan Yarbrough, who does not even average five innings an appearance, has embraced the role of 'Opener follower'.
Yarbrough has 14 Wins.
Even with Chris Sale's injury, Yarbrough has thrown 13 less innings than Sale, but has two more Wins.
Here are their lines...
Chris Sale- 1.97/12/219/0.85
Yarbrough- 3.78/14/115/1.26

Openers have a chance to change fantasy baseball significantly.
It takes starts away from traditional starters.
It also makes the 'Opener follower' dependent on the Opener.
If a pitcher like Yarbrough comes into a game already three runs behind, he will be hard-presses to get a Win.
This year, he has had a lead when coming into a game and without the five inning requirement that is levied against Starters, 'Opener followers' have an easier road when following a good 'Opener'.

Just my opinion here, I believe that 'Openers' are here to stay.
Further, I do not believe they will be followed by the likes of Ryan Yarbrough in the future.
I believe that 'Openers' will be expanded to two-three Openers tossing the first two or three innings, then be followed with 'Starters'
This would allow a pitcher like Max Scherzer or Chris Sale to throw a 'complete game' from the third or fourth inning on.
It would allow teams to have a choice between their best Starter or their Closer pitching in the ninth inning.
It would also allow a Manager to 'bench' a Starter should a game get out of hand early.
If the Openers give up at 6-0 or 7-0 lead in the first few innings. Sale or Scherzer types could be 'saved' for the game the next day.
There are a lot of benefits to the 'Opener' for Major League Managers.
I don't think it is going away.

[DOUGHBOYS]

'Columbo'- like, "Just one more thing"......

A lot has been made of JD Martinez this year. And he has had a great year.
Martinez is hitting .331 with 40 homers.
Spectacular in that he is in the gunning for a true Triple Crown.
Only four hitters in baseball history have a true Triple Crown.
But, consider this.
Remember Albert Pujols?
No, not the Anaheim Albert Pujols who is furthering career counting numbers while lowering his career batting average.
The St. Louis Albert Pujols.
In 2003, Pujols hit 43 homers and batted .359
Then, in 2004, .331 with 46 homers
2005, .330, 41 home runs
2006, .331, 49 homers
Pujols is the only modern day player to have four consecutive years of .330 and 40 home runs.
The Babe did it 10 times in his career!

Unfortunately, the Anaheim Pujols has pulled down his lifetime batting average to just .302
Numbers-wise, I hope that Pujols get 18 rbi to reach 2000 for his career and somehow maintains his .300 lifetime batting average.
Mickey Mantle's largest baseball regret is that he did not retire a .300 hitter (.298 lifetime batting average).
I hope it is not a regret for Pujols.
But getting back to the original point, when thinking of how good JD Martinez has been this year, give Albert a thought.
Umm, the St. Louis Albert.

[Bronx Yankees]

Other things that are interesting.......

Blake Snell has won 18 games.
While it is true that Snell has pitched exceptionally well this season, the Wins, themselves can be considered lucky.
Snell averages less than six innings per start. Leaving almost 40 percent of the fate of his leads in ball games in the hands of the Rays bullpen....

Chris Sale AVERAGES three strike outs every two innings (146 inn, 219 K's).
More amazing, in Sale's 44 innings leading up to his injury, he gave up one run....and struck out 79 hitters.
Sale has allowed more than six hits just one time this season. Only one run was allowed in that game and Sale won the game.
Sale has also gone almost 70 innings since allowing his last home run.
I know that sabrs love digging into Jake deGrom's feats to disspell the Wins category, but Sale has had a truly terrific year( and only 12 Wins).

Only three National League pitchers have more than 14 Wins (Scherzer, 17, Nola,16 Lester, 15).
Wins are shriveling up.
Last year, Corey Kluber was the only pitcher to average seven innings a start.
He have become the last pitcher who will ever do that.
Most starters this year, are averaging less than six innings per start.
(Remember when we laughed at the 'Quality Start' statistic? I know I did.)
'Openers' have even become a thing.
Ryan Yarbrough, who does not even average five innings an appearance, has embraced the role of 'Opener follower'.
Yarbrough has 14 Wins.
Even with Chris Sale's injury, Yarbrough has thrown 13 less innings than Sale, but has two more Wins.
Here are their lines...
Chris Sale- 1.97/12/219/0.85
Yarbrough- 3.78/14/115/1.26

Great stuff, Dan. Although you focused on Sale having fewer wins than Yarbrough, I think deGrom is the more extreme example. While wins always have been somewhat overrated as a stat (although it does have some meaning), I cannot remember any year where a starting pitcher got screwed out of more wins than deGrom. As of today:

188 IP
230 K
1.68 ERA
0.96 WHIP
8 wins.

You have a great mind for baseball history - do you remember a starting pitcher ever having 10 wins or less but who dominated like deGrom and seemingly is worthy of winning the Cy Young even in the absence of double-digit wins? I cannot.

Side note: while I'd be pleased to see MLB tweak the rules for wins, I am a traditionalist and prefer it to remain a roto category and am not interested in changing the category. Still, it does not seem to make much sense that Yarbrough is ineligible for a win if pitching Innings 1-4, but can be the winner when pitching innings 2-4.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

I used Sale because the press and fans are incredulous about Jake deGrom's bad luck.
Of course, it's the Mets. The Mets don't hit much and are a team that find ways to lose.
To me, it is just as surprising to see Sale with just 12 Wins on the best team in baseball this year.
Sale has 23 Starts with a 1.97 ERA on a team that scores runs at a prolific clip. He should be winning way more than just half his games.
It really doesn't matter. It is Wins. A category, we as fantasy players and pitchers in baseball have less control over, than any other category.
In 2010, Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young with only 13 Wins and barely above the .500 mark at 13-12.
More and more, Wins are becoming less important in measuring Starting pitchers. It's the right thing.
Sale and deGrom can only shut down opposing offenses. They have no control in how much their own offense scores or how badly the bullpen undoes their work.

A story.
I was score keeping a playoff game for a Rockies minor league affiliate on Sunday.
The Rockies team built a 6-1 lead. Their starting pitcher, the Rockies number one pick in this years draft, was removed after three innings because of pitch count.
The next pitcher threw two or three innings and when leaving, the Rockies clinged to a 6-5 lead.
The game finished with that same score.
I did not award the Win to the second pitcher.
I gave it to the set-up man who retired four hitters, including getting out of a jam of another pitcher's making in the seventh inning.
The MILB group in New York gave me grief over the decision.

'Tradionally', it should be the second pitchers Win.
We don't live in a traditional era.
Things are changing.
If I had the power, I would have awarded the Win to the Starting pitcher. By rule, I can't.
By the same token, I do not want Wins to be up to the score keeper.
The score keeper catches enough grief!
BUT, I would like to see the five inning rule for a Starter, reduced.