Bryce Harper and Having an MVP Early

[DOUGHBOYS]

I was just in a spirited baseball conversation.
The subject was Bryce Harper. The fellow I was talking with LOVES Bryce Harper.
In two words and one contraction, I don't.
Not one to ease his feelings, I told him that I believed that Harper was the most overrated player in baseball.
That he reminded me of Gregg Jefferies, in that he was supposed to rule the baseball world, but......no.

My friend argued about how young Harper was and that he was still learning.
"So what?", I responded, "I'm over 60 and I'm still learning!" "How much time is learning and how much time is doing?"
He argued that he is one of the best players in the game and still young enough to get better.
"How much time does it take to get better?", I asked.
Harper is young, but old in baseball years. This is his seventh year.
I offered that Harper has had one superstar year in seven. The year he won the MVP in 2015.
"WHAT A YEAR!", replied my now adversary, not friend.
"To have an MVP year under your belt in what is now his age 26 year, is something few players can brag about!", he crowed.
I let him know that Harper has only hit over 30 homers once, only scored 100 runs once, and has never, ever driven home 100 runs.
I scrunched up my face and asked him, "Aren't superstar power hitters supposed to drive home 100 runs EVERY year?"
Undeterred, he responded that under the bright lights, whether it is playoffs or a home run derby, Harper always comes through.
"Great", I said, "So when bored with the regular season, he has found his 'off button' ".
He queried, "Who would you rather have for the next five years, Harper in his 26-30 years or JD Martinez in his age 30-34 years.
As a contrarian, I answered Martinez. And the more I thought about it, Martinez IS my answer.
I think of Harper as being an inconsistent player. When interested, as in a new contract year to impress, he may be all that. The rest of the year's, who knows.
I picture JD Martinez as a slugging lug who doesn't really change in his 30's. Much like Nellie Cruz or Edwin Encarnacion, he'll continue swinging a more consistent power bat.
We left the argument as any two men would, each thinking the other was full of shit.

That back and forth made me think about something though.
Is it really unusual for a player to be under 26 and have an MVP Award on the mantel at home?
Hmm.
Upon further review, no it is not.
And it is not just a generational thing either. It has been happening since the 30's.
Jimmie Foxx was an MVP twice before his age 26 year.
Mickey Mantle turned the trick twice in the 50's.
Heck, Zoilo Versalles was an MVP before 26. Most of you just went, "Who?"
So was Vida Blue and Jeff Burroughs in the 70's.
Jose Canseco and Barry Bonds represent the 'PEDS for me' movement.
Bonds getting his MVP before learning that syringes could be used for something other than vaccinations.
Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau, and Dustin Pedroia have done it.
Not to mention the player Harper WAS compared with at an early age.
Mike Trout has won the MVP twice before 26.
The latest to do it was Kris Bryant.
It has been done 39 times in all.
By some special players and some not-so special players.

[Gb2715]

Speaking of guys that were going to be stars. Do you remember Jeff Conine? Yeah neither do I!!! Harper is just another .260 hitter with power. And today that isn’t that hard to find.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Baseball folks are victims by their own hand at times.
We hype players so much, that there is no way they can live up to expectations.
Harper is one of those.
Rhys Hoskins after his partial year, last year, is another.
Trea Turner, after a partial year with power was elevated all the way to fourth in ADP this year.
Incredible in what the hype machine delivers each year.

And the way RotoWorld goes on about Guerrero Jr., if the kid does NOT hit a homer each day, it's a shock for them.
It is our job to temper the hype machine.
Hoskins, Turner, and Guerrero Jr. will be very good, if not great players.
OUR problem is that we think it'll happen immediately.
Heck, one thing Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, and Mike Trout share is that they all had slow starts to their careers.
Many say this is a blessing in disguise. Humility is taught. They know at an early age that it won't come easily like other levels.
If coming out of the gates like thunder such as Turner did a couple of years ago, it becomes a constant expectation.
Nowhere to go but down.

We fall in love with a kids talent.
The power of Harper. The speed of Turner. The power/speed of Ronald Acuna.
THAT is what is on our minds when drafting.
Somehow, we front burner those talents and back burner the growing pains these kids will have in displaying those talents.
In our minds, these talents will overcome the struggles that lay ahead.
For Harper, it is now different.
He has played seven years.
He is what he is.
He has become an unsettled yearly fantasy player. No consistency.
Superstars are consistent. Mere stars can fade or shine bright, then fade again.
When selected in a draft, we know we will receive power via Harper, but really have no idea what his other totals will look like in any given year.
That may be his fantasy draw.
That when selected his drafters will say, "THIS, this will be THE year!"
But then again, we say that about ourselves and our players EVERY year

[JohnP]

Trea Turner has moved into top 10 hitters for $ earned as of early August. He's a lot closer to earning his draft selection spot than many of the others. Harper on the other hand....still scrolling.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I guess I really don't care about $ returned or if a player is returning the expected 'value' when selected.
With Turner and other speed first players, I believe that it makes it tougher for players to win their league when selecting these types of players in the first round.
One of the top 20 teams in the Main Event started their team with Turner.
Most other players drafted in the first rounds will have more home runs and rbi
Most will run neck and neck with him or beat him in batting average and runs scored.
It leaves the speed category as his only advantage.
We're trading two categories, sometimes more, to get the one.

Alex Bregman is three games from getting shortstop eligibility for next year.
Bregman, a third round selection last year, beats Turner in four of the five categories. I believe he will next year as well.
I guess we have to determine the comfort and edge of having a leader in stolen bases.
To me, the one category goodness of Turner, is not worth giving up on HR/RBI or K/ERA/WHIP leaders that other players have in the first round.
This year, it is really tough in rostering any National League lead off batter.
Only Matt Carpenter is in the top 80 in RBI (44TH) of National League leadoff hitters.
This is a blow for Blackmon owners too. Blackmon has 21 homers, but only 49 RBI.
Turner ranks 23rd in Runs.
Passable, not exceptional.
In all other categories besides stolen bases (1st) and Runs (23rd), he is merely average.

.268/67/20/65/10
.267/68/14/47/30

The top numbers are those of Didi Gregorius.
The bottom, Trea Turner.
The extreme higher price paid for those extra 20 bases does not make sense to me.