Volume

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Volume

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:57 pm

We are all volume players in one way or another.
We will choose a player with four games during the week over a slightly better player with a two game week.
We will draft a lead off hitter over a batter that hits down in the lineup.
We will start two-start pitchers over a better pitcher who has one start.
We will draft a pitcher with no injury past over those that do.
The strategy in all of these cases is to get more volume or more chances to fill categories.

The belief in volume is that we don't have to be smarter. That if a player has enough at bats or innings, that he should obtain hits or strike outs or whatever else we're looking for from that player.
We invite luck.
If choosing Trey Mancini in playing three games over Matt Kemp, playing two, we are not stating that Mancini is not the better player, only that Mancini will have more chances to be the better player.

I wondered if volume is that great.
I found that it really was not.
In looking at the Overall Standings in the Main Event, only two teams who are in the top 10 of the standings are in the top 50 for innings pitched.
At bats find four teams from the top 10 in the top 50 of Overall Standings.

We walk the thin line of volume or vacuum.
In a vacuum, we put our best players forward at all times.
We even draft and study in a vacuum. We KNOW that player A is better than player B.
So, we draft player A.
But, when it comes down to player A for two games or player B for four?
That is a different story.

Desperation makes everybody do crazy things in all walks of life.
It is no different in fantasy baseball.
Low in the standings in strike outs or Wins?
We will start a 2-start Miami pitcher over a more talented one start pitcher.
We toss aside talent and start hoping to get wild cards in our draw.
We know that the leaders who roster Sale, Scherzer, Severino, etc will probably see more strike outs in their one start than desperation with a unreliable 2-starter, but we do it all the same.
In this way, desperation helps in driving up innings for losing teams.
In most cases, this volume tends to make owners feel good for only a short period of time.
They pay for the privilege for 2-starters with faab. Happy that they 'win' the bid.
Happy they are rostered and equally happy to start the pitcher.
Mostly, unhappy when the pitcher actually throws pitches.
Realization hits home that volume does not equal a trophy.

As said, it is a fine line we walk.
We want the most from our players.
We want them to be like Alcides Escobar in playing every day.
We just don't want them to be playing every day like Alcides Escobar.
It's tough/
It is both a very under estimated and very under appreciated skill for NFBC players.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Edwards Kings
Posts: 5878
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: Duluth, Georgia

Re: Volume

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:27 am

Yes...this is me. I do sit two-game offensive starters for three- or four-gamers. But I have always been a more is more guy. I agree that desperation if a factor. I started two players because they had eight games between them as opposed to two normal batters with only four games. But then again only 0.5 points separates the top three teams in my league. I will pat myself on the back for not going with two-start Urena this week....dodged that bullet!

In my Auction league I started three players (their teams play twelve games, though I doubt I get full AB in all twelve games) versus normal starters with only six games. The three starters (Gattis - two games in Colorado, so no DH; Seager and Gordan - two versus SF) replaced by Leon, Profar, and Russell. Last night, the replacements were collectively 3 for 9 with one run.

I will keep (as I normally do anyway) tracking through Thursday to see if the strategy worked....this time.

Good stuff...
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Volume

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:27 am

Volume is a bugger sometimes. One or two starting pitchers hurt at this time of year, can really leave teams in dire straits.
Funny thing about FAAB, in recent years, big money has been spent on relievers and highly touted prospects, but starting pitching candidates either from the minors or dropped on other teams, usually do not get large bids.
Trust, I believe is the key thing.
Tyler Chatwood was talked up in pre-season. Going to the Cubs, he was going to, for sure, pick up a lot of Wins.
And going from Coors to Wrigley would surely help any other problems.
That was pre-season when he had 'value'.
Now, he has been dropped and picked up and dropped more than a crazy lady with a dynamite body.

Still, Chatwood does get picked up. He gets picked up because the Starting pitching pool is so shallow.
Some teams have clung to Ervin Santana all year. He is finally going to throw in a game with just two months remaining in the season.
In my mind, he'll have to throw darned well to justify being kept on a roster for four months.
Imagine all the players bypassed in order to keep Santana.
Samardzija, Cessa, Lauer, Lugo, Montas, Trevor Williams, Cobb, Holland, Suter, German, Colon, Stratton, Cashner,etc all get passed around like a bag of sunflower seeds in the dugout of a high school baseball game.
All, picked up because maybe, just maybe, they'll do better on my roster than on a league mate's roster.
If having a good last outing, they are picked up by NFBC players hoping they gather consistency.
But inconsistency is what made them available.

The top catchers this year, Sanchez, Realmuto, Ramos, and Molina have all been dl'd at some point.
They are replaced (if replaced) by catchers who may give a run or rbi here or there, but ultimately only serve to drag batting average.
The volume in replacing a starting catcher, in this case, a placebo.
It make owners feel good to have a 'full lineup'. Even if it only serves to hurt his team more than help it.
It has been a bad year for catchers.
Sanchez was the first catcher selected in drafts. He has the most talked about groin in baseball.
That is a good thing for porn, not baseball.
Contreras and Posey, next off the board haven't been hurt.
That is the good news.
The bad news is their under performance in relation to where they were picked in drafts is staggering.
We have to keep them. We know there is nothing better in FAAB.
Posey and Contreras are leading catchers in at bats. They are providing volume only.
Here is Posey and Contreras compared to a past FAAB pickup....

Posey- .283/39/5/32/3
Contreras- .277/35/8/37/4
Hicks- .267/32/9/32/0

This isn't to knock Posey or Contreras, per se.
Only to illustrate that more volume does not always result in better statistics.
Although I shudder to think about Posey and Contreras stats had they NOT had volume.
On whole, catching is just horrible this year.
The 32,37, and 32 rbi from Posey, Contreras, and Hicks are not much better than the 28, 25, and 24 by backup catchers Romine, Diaz, and Hundley.

The point being that we have to assess volume.
It is a quality/quantity choice.
The great players give us both.
It is the other players, the many other players, that have us making decisions.
Those decisions are why we are where we are in our standings.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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