Hobby 1, NFBC Drafters 0

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Hobby 1, NFBC Drafters 0

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:32 am

I believe that NFBC owners are the best fantasy players in the world.
They put their money where their mouth is. They study, live, and breathe that baseball season until the season is no more.
Then, study for the next season.
Each of us wil study in different ways. Different statistics will give us different roads to follow.
Some of us will see a player from the previous season and we'll make a mental note that that player would look great on our rosters.
That's right, we will study in-season for next season.
The study brings us all to different conclusions. This is what makes the in-game of the NFBC, fun.
As an NFBC drafter and player, there was one player being drafted last year that I thought other NFBC players were totally missing the mark on.
No, it was not Joey Votto.

It is Trea Turner.
Trea Turner was at a solid number four adp in the NFBC. Mere percentage points behind Nolan Arenado from being third Overall.
Third!
'Trey' Turner?
Why so high?
Was it the power surge of 2016?
Turner hit 12 homers in two months that year.
It happened.
And some believe that when a player displays a skill, he owns it.
Which is poppycock in some cases.
When Tiffany displays a diamond, they own it.
When players display a skill, we're the ones that own it. By drafting.
The player has the skills. We own them. That's the way it works in our game.
Brady Anderson who is similar to Turner in many ways, once hit 50 homers. Anderson did not own that skill. He merely displayed it one year.
His drafters were the lucky ones who 'owned' that skill.
Many have different theories in how and why Anderson displayed that skill. But, I'm getting off track.

Simply, Turner is not a player in which power can be relied on.
His speed, however, is real.
It would not surprise me to see Turner lead the league in steals for many years.
His owners can 'relax' in that category. But, Only that category.
Steals is an isolated category. It is the only isolated category in roto and the NFBC.
Even a Closer picking up a Save, will contribute strike outs and may help with WHIP and ERA.
Steals do not help ANY of the other four categories.
Sure, he is closer to scoring a run, but an extra base hit from a more powerful hitter has the same effect.

Besides the skill display and ownership thereof axiom, Turner owners rely on another saying.
'Speed never slumps'.
'Speed never slumps', may I introduce you to Billy Hamilton.
Hamilton has two skills that he 'owns'. Speed and slump.
It could last a week, a month, a year, or even a career, right Billy?
Hamilton has been a popular pick among NFBC players. We love our speed.
'Speed never slumps' was said to remind fans that speed was an integral part of baseball. That a fast player can still hit the ball poorly and beat out hits.
Of course, this was said well before shifts came into prominence.
In Turner's case, the meaning is different.
Turner's speed, itself, has slumped.
He has not stolen a base in July.
He only has two stolen bases during the last 30 days. He has also slumped at the plate, going two for his last 26 at bats. No rbi since his big game 10 days ago.
He led baseball in stolen bases a month ago. Now, in a pack with 22 stolen bases.

I like Trea Turner as a player. I like the way he plays the game.
I just wouldn't like him as a first round pick. Especially, as high as number four.
Turner has not set himself apart from other players with similar skills.
I believe that was the thought process in why NFBC drafters took him so high.
The thought being that, best case scenario, Turner would hit 20 homers and steal 80 bases, while the other categories took care of themselves.
He may be able to do that one year.
But, I wouldn't bet a number one choice, that this or any other year would be that year.

Starling Marte is three runs short of beating Turner in every roto category this year.
Marte was DL'd earlier this year and has 60 less at bats than Turner.
Tim Anderson has similar numbers to Turner.
Billy Hamilton, with all of his poor hitting this year, has just as many stolen bases and only two less runs scored than Turner.
The point being that Turner has not separated himself from others like him.
That was the hope of his drafters. It is what made Turner the number four Overall pick in the NFBC.

NFBC drafters are the best in the world.
Sometimes though, the hobby has a way of kicking our ass.
In Turner's case, Hobby 1, NFBC Drafters 0.
We can't blame injury or even under performance.
In baseball, Turner ranks fourth in stolen bases.
30th in Runs.
77th in batting average.
99th in home runs.
116th in rbi.
And really, we can't be too surprised by any of these figures.
The problem is not with Turner.
The problem was with our hope of higher expectation.
The under performance, in this case, was ours.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Hobby 1, NFBC Drafters 0

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Jul 15, 2018 3:13 pm

A follow-up after a conversation....


I had a conversation with an NFBC player. After reading my piece, he asked how I could be so hard on Trea Turner.
I'm not hard on Turner. I'm hard on us, the drafters.
Turner's season is much what I expected. He may have a couple more homers than I expected and a few less steals, but Trea Turner, to me, is being Trea Turner.
I have never thought of him as first round material. Especially, fourth Overall.

My friend lamented that I had discounted Turner's potential.
I responded, "What potential?"
We know he is fast, we know he can steal.
We know he has a little pop.
Maybe as he gets bigger and older, that changes.
But for now, what else is there?
I told my friend that I would rather have Javier Baez on my team next year.
And I would rather have Lindor...and Ramirez...and Bregman...and Benintendi...and JDMartinez...and Freeman.
None of these players were in the top 15 of adp last year.
And if we bring Trout, Betts, Altuve, Arenado, Blackmon, Machado, Scherzer, Sale, and Severino, into the picture, there are 15 players mentioned that should be selected before Turner.
When taking a first round pick, we shouldn't have to hope that a player will 'reach his potential'.
We want a player that is trusted. A player who is a rock that can possibly exceed already high standards.

It is not Turner's fault that our expectations were too high.
It is on us.
I related to my friend that I would gladly draft Turner.
Just not in the first round.
And maybe not the second either with Harper, Judge, Stanton, Kluber, Kershaw, Rizzo, Bryant, Goldschmidt, and our friend Joey Votto not mentioned yet.
Sometimes, we think too much of speed.
Dee Gordon gets selected in the second round and maxes out at three categories.
Ironically, his drafters say, "I'm going for broke" when drafting Gordon.
Truly, it is the other way around.
They are drafting Gordon for comfort in one category, while totally ignoring two others.
Speedsters are speed stars.
We make the mistake of giving them more credit than they are due.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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