Faith and Hope
Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:16 am
I go on and on about how the word, 'value' is misused and glorified by most in the fantasy industry.
I'm not sorry.
Yesterday, there were several instances where Jordan Zimmermann was picked up in various leagues. Some of the teams picking up Zimmermann, dropped Tanner Roark.
During drafting season, some experts were telling us of the 'value' of Roark.
They told us the 'value' was that Roark played with a winning team.
(The Nationals are one game over .500)
They told us that Roark had an ERA under 3.00 in two of his last three years.
(As if his 4.67 ERA in 2017 can be overlooked)
The point is that Roark's 'value' was only perception. Three months later, the reckoning is that a washed up and an undraftable pitcher on draft day (Zimmermann) is now more rosterable than a 10th round 'value' (Roark).
Most times, we are RE-active in a supposedly PRO-active hobby.
Yesterday, Kyle Tucker was bought in Main Event leagues for triple figures, ranging from $100 to over $400.
The owners of Tucker do not know what he will do. Their thought is that he had good minor league numbers and that those numbers will be carried over to the Big Leagues.
We pay and even over pay for the chance of getting a game changing bat.
They are a new toy.
Much more fun to bid on then a Jorge Polanco, or Lucas Duda, or Ronald Guzman.
We have seen Polanco, Duda, and Guzman. We've seen them succeed and we've seen them fail.
We've never seen Kyle Tucker fail.
That is the draw.
The hope that he will continue the numbers from minors to majors.
It could happen.
Rhys Hoskins came up last year (with much lesser bids) and set the Major Leagues on it's ear with his power.
But hot shots like Alex Bregman and David Dahl who breezed through the minors, did not carry that ease over to Major League pitching the same year they were bid on.
We all play this game differently. I seldom bid triple figures for any player. I'm conservative and do not go 'all in' with putting my hopes on one player.
Not a slam on players that do, Tucker may be a world-beater. A possible game-changer.
In his case, his 'value' is limitless in that we have yet to see him fail.
Players like this always get more of a lift. We are drawn to shiny objects and Tucker has that shine.
In another month, we'll all realize his true measure.
In the NFBC, in-season rostered players have three true outcomes.
He starts.
He sits.
He's dropped.
'Value' is replaced by 'faith' and 'hope'.
When starting, we have faith and hope that our players will succeed.
When benched, we've lost a little of that faith and hope in our player, whether it is bad play or bad match-ups.
When dropped, we have lost faith and hope.
That player will have 'value' because he will be picked up by another Manager the next week.
But to us, without faith or hope, he is 'dead' to us.
Will Zimmermann throw better than Roark over the last part of the season?
Will Kyle Tucker carry over him Minors number to the Majors?
We have no idea.
None at all.
BUT, we place 'value' on recent events.
If drafting now, Roark and Zimmermann would be drafted in similar rounds.
Kyle Tucker would leap in ADP.
We make the same mistakes over and over.
Recent events when drafting told us that Roark was a viable pitcher while Zimmermann was washed up.
Now, we don't care about Roark's team or past stats.
We have lost faith and hope. THAT, is far more important than draft day 'value'.
I'm not sorry.
Yesterday, there were several instances where Jordan Zimmermann was picked up in various leagues. Some of the teams picking up Zimmermann, dropped Tanner Roark.
During drafting season, some experts were telling us of the 'value' of Roark.
They told us the 'value' was that Roark played with a winning team.
(The Nationals are one game over .500)
They told us that Roark had an ERA under 3.00 in two of his last three years.
(As if his 4.67 ERA in 2017 can be overlooked)
The point is that Roark's 'value' was only perception. Three months later, the reckoning is that a washed up and an undraftable pitcher on draft day (Zimmermann) is now more rosterable than a 10th round 'value' (Roark).
Most times, we are RE-active in a supposedly PRO-active hobby.
Yesterday, Kyle Tucker was bought in Main Event leagues for triple figures, ranging from $100 to over $400.
The owners of Tucker do not know what he will do. Their thought is that he had good minor league numbers and that those numbers will be carried over to the Big Leagues.
We pay and even over pay for the chance of getting a game changing bat.
They are a new toy.
Much more fun to bid on then a Jorge Polanco, or Lucas Duda, or Ronald Guzman.
We have seen Polanco, Duda, and Guzman. We've seen them succeed and we've seen them fail.
We've never seen Kyle Tucker fail.
That is the draw.
The hope that he will continue the numbers from minors to majors.
It could happen.
Rhys Hoskins came up last year (with much lesser bids) and set the Major Leagues on it's ear with his power.
But hot shots like Alex Bregman and David Dahl who breezed through the minors, did not carry that ease over to Major League pitching the same year they were bid on.
We all play this game differently. I seldom bid triple figures for any player. I'm conservative and do not go 'all in' with putting my hopes on one player.
Not a slam on players that do, Tucker may be a world-beater. A possible game-changer.
In his case, his 'value' is limitless in that we have yet to see him fail.
Players like this always get more of a lift. We are drawn to shiny objects and Tucker has that shine.
In another month, we'll all realize his true measure.
In the NFBC, in-season rostered players have three true outcomes.
He starts.
He sits.
He's dropped.
'Value' is replaced by 'faith' and 'hope'.
When starting, we have faith and hope that our players will succeed.
When benched, we've lost a little of that faith and hope in our player, whether it is bad play or bad match-ups.
When dropped, we have lost faith and hope.
That player will have 'value' because he will be picked up by another Manager the next week.
But to us, without faith or hope, he is 'dead' to us.
Will Zimmermann throw better than Roark over the last part of the season?
Will Kyle Tucker carry over him Minors number to the Majors?
We have no idea.
None at all.
BUT, we place 'value' on recent events.
If drafting now, Roark and Zimmermann would be drafted in similar rounds.
Kyle Tucker would leap in ADP.
We make the same mistakes over and over.
Recent events when drafting told us that Roark was a viable pitcher while Zimmermann was washed up.
Now, we don't care about Roark's team or past stats.
We have lost faith and hope. THAT, is far more important than draft day 'value'.