Faith and Hope

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Faith and Hope

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:16 am

I go on and on about how the word, 'value' is misused and glorified by most in the fantasy industry.
I'm not sorry.
Yesterday, there were several instances where Jordan Zimmermann was picked up in various leagues. Some of the teams picking up Zimmermann, dropped Tanner Roark.
During drafting season, some experts were telling us of the 'value' of Roark.

They told us the 'value' was that Roark played with a winning team.
(The Nationals are one game over .500)

They told us that Roark had an ERA under 3.00 in two of his last three years.
(As if his 4.67 ERA in 2017 can be overlooked)

The point is that Roark's 'value' was only perception. Three months later, the reckoning is that a washed up and an undraftable pitcher on draft day (Zimmermann) is now more rosterable than a 10th round 'value' (Roark).
Most times, we are RE-active in a supposedly PRO-active hobby.

Yesterday, Kyle Tucker was bought in Main Event leagues for triple figures, ranging from $100 to over $400.
The owners of Tucker do not know what he will do. Their thought is that he had good minor league numbers and that those numbers will be carried over to the Big Leagues.
We pay and even over pay for the chance of getting a game changing bat.
They are a new toy.
Much more fun to bid on then a Jorge Polanco, or Lucas Duda, or Ronald Guzman.
We have seen Polanco, Duda, and Guzman. We've seen them succeed and we've seen them fail.
We've never seen Kyle Tucker fail.
That is the draw.
The hope that he will continue the numbers from minors to majors.
It could happen.
Rhys Hoskins came up last year (with much lesser bids) and set the Major Leagues on it's ear with his power.
But hot shots like Alex Bregman and David Dahl who breezed through the minors, did not carry that ease over to Major League pitching the same year they were bid on.

We all play this game differently. I seldom bid triple figures for any player. I'm conservative and do not go 'all in' with putting my hopes on one player.
Not a slam on players that do, Tucker may be a world-beater. A possible game-changer.
In his case, his 'value' is limitless in that we have yet to see him fail.
Players like this always get more of a lift. We are drawn to shiny objects and Tucker has that shine.
In another month, we'll all realize his true measure.
In the NFBC, in-season rostered players have three true outcomes.
He starts.
He sits.
He's dropped.
'Value' is replaced by 'faith' and 'hope'.
When starting, we have faith and hope that our players will succeed.
When benched, we've lost a little of that faith and hope in our player, whether it is bad play or bad match-ups.
When dropped, we have lost faith and hope.
That player will have 'value' because he will be picked up by another Manager the next week.
But to us, without faith or hope, he is 'dead' to us.

Will Zimmermann throw better than Roark over the last part of the season?
Will Kyle Tucker carry over him Minors number to the Majors?

We have no idea.
None at all.
BUT, we place 'value' on recent events.
If drafting now, Roark and Zimmermann would be drafted in similar rounds.
Kyle Tucker would leap in ADP.
We make the same mistakes over and over.
Recent events when drafting told us that Roark was a viable pitcher while Zimmermann was washed up.
Now, we don't care about Roark's team or past stats.
We have lost faith and hope. THAT, is far more important than draft day 'value'.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Edwards Kings
Posts: 5879
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: Duluth, Georgia

Re: Faith and Hope

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:11 am

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:16 am
I go on and on about how the word, 'value' is misused and glorified by most in the fantasy industry.
I'm not sorry.
Yesterday, there were several instances where Jordan Zimmermann was picked up in various leagues. Some of the teams picking up Zimmermann, dropped Tanner Roark.
During drafting season, some experts were telling us of the 'value' of Roark.

They told us the 'value' was that Roark played with a winning team.
(The Nationals are one game over .500)

They told us that Roark had an ERA under 3.00 in two of his last three years.
(As if his 4.67 ERA in 2017 can be overlooked)

The point is that Roark's 'value' was only perception. Three months later, the reckoning is that a washed up and an undraftable pitcher on draft day (Zimmermann) is now more rosterable than a 10th round 'value' (Roark).
Most times, we are RE-active in a supposedly PRO-active hobby.

Yesterday, Kyle Tucker was bought in Main Event leagues for triple figures, ranging from $100 to over $400.
The owners of Tucker do not know what he will do. Their thought is that he had good minor league numbers and that those numbers will be carried over to the Big Leagues.
We pay and even over pay for the chance of getting a game changing bat.
They are a new toy.
Much more fun to bid on then a Jorge Polanco, or Lucas Duda, or Ronald Guzman.
We have seen Polanco, Duda, and Guzman. We've seen them succeed and we've seen them fail.
We've never seen Kyle Tucker fail.
That is the draw.
The hope that he will continue the numbers from minors to majors.
It could happen.
Rhys Hoskins came up last year (with much lesser bids) and set the Major Leagues on it's ear with his power.
But hot shots like Alex Bregman and David Dahl who breezed through the minors, did not carry that ease over to Major League pitching the same year they were bid on.

We all play this game differently. I seldom bid triple figures for any player. I'm conservative and do not go 'all in' with putting my hopes on one player.
Not a slam on players that do, Tucker may be a world-beater. A possible game-changer.
In his case, his 'value' is limitless in that we have yet to see him fail.
Players like this always get more of a lift. We are drawn to shiny objects and Tucker has that shine.
In another month, we'll all realize his true measure.
In the NFBC, in-season rostered players have three true outcomes.
He starts.
He sits.
He's dropped.
'Value' is replaced by 'faith' and 'hope'.
When starting, we have faith and hope that our players will succeed.
When benched, we've lost a little of that faith and hope in our player, whether it is bad play or bad match-ups.
When dropped, we have lost faith and hope.
That player will have 'value' because he will be picked up by another Manager the next week.
But to us, without faith or hope, he is 'dead' to us.

Will Zimmermann throw better than Roark over the last part of the season?
Will Kyle Tucker carry over him Minors number to the Majors?

We have no idea.
None at all.
BUT, we place 'value' on recent events.
If drafting now, Roark and Zimmermann would be drafted in similar rounds.
Kyle Tucker would leap in ADP.
We make the same mistakes over and over.
Recent events when drafting told us that Roark was a viable pitcher while Zimmermann was washed up.
Now, we don't care about Roark's team or past stats.
We have lost faith and hope. THAT, is far more important than draft day 'value'.
You are right. You and I FAAB very similarly, but I did put a $100 plus bid in on Tucker in both my leagues, won in neither (runner up in one, though... and runner-up doesn't even get you a kewpie doll!) though the winning bids from my leagues were on the low end. Still, I understand most of the bids. We have filtered and filtered and filtered the free agent pool and we all know that odds are the chaff we are looking at will not produce much. You hope for replacement level stats (I almost wrote "replacement value"...phew...just missed), forget really getting improvement. Streaming pitchers, potential closers-du-jour (or now, the who will be traded and who will get a new role tango), need SB so let's hold our nose and pick up Rajai Davis....bleech!

So along comes a Tucker...the fact that he COULD be a difference maker is enough because the free agents already there CAN NOT be difference makers. Or at least Tucker has the higher chance because, as you put it, he hasn't failed. All the others available in the FA pool have failed, most over and over again.

We will see....Correa comes back, does Gonzalez go to first or does Tucker go back down? Inquiring minds want to know.

Is Tucker Elvis Presley's alien love child? Enquiring minds want to know.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Faith and Hope

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:31 am

I put a smallish bid on Tucker.
For some reason, Astros minor leaguers do not strike gold immediately in the Bigs.
I know that is a huge generalization, but when Bregman, White, Reed, and Davis do not come out of the gates and take the bull by the horns when getting at bats, it makes me think along the same lines for Tucker.
Tucker is a can't miss prospect who can miss for a short time after being called up.
As mentioned, when Correa comes back, somebody's playing time will decrease. If Tucker hasn't impressed before the All-Star break, the easiest move is to send him back down to the minors.

Changing tracks.....

'Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees are "showing increased interest" in Manny Machado.'

Has Machado learned how to pitch?
The Yankees are going to go into the playoffs with 'Severino and the Gray Sabathankas'.
It is particularly more important for the Yankees and Mariners to obtain a really good starter.
Both may have to play in a one-game playoff. They need more than just one ace if wanting to go deep in the playoffs.
Cashman is an 'outside the box' thinker at times. I believe that he may come up with a surprise. May be a pitcher that these 'know (nothing) it all' scribes have not written about as yet.
For instance, I would have the Nationals ear about Scherzer and Strasburg right now. The Nationals may be sellers at the deadline and their window for winning any World Series is closing fast.
Jake deGrom would be a wonderful get. The Yanks and Mets are not ideal trading partners given their locale. But, if the Yanks could offer enough youth, they may have the pitcher that could get them deep in the post-season.
Jameson Taillon may thrive for a contending team.
Is Chris Archer available for a lowered price?

Atlanta, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Seattle could all use another reliable and a good starter as well.
I know that Machado is the focus point because of his name and past, but the real difference makers are on the bump.
Last edited by DOUGHBOYS on Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

User avatar
Edwards Kings
Posts: 5879
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: Duluth, Georgia

Re: Faith and Hope

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:19 am

True. A lot of this will be "drive up the cost for someone we have not intention of screwing up our farm system for" talk. And what teams will really be setting the market for this offseason? Is Machado still saying he only wants to play shortstop? Combo big market team and need at shortstop to make playoffs this year...any other team picks up Machado this year, the combo teams will just sit back and pick him up later without losing the prospects. In short, I have no clue where he will land.

And the Braves....I just do not know. Penciling in Teheran, Folty (a five inning pitcher in the AS game?) and Newcomb, I can see the Braves trading Clarabel Sanchez (I do not think his value can be any higher than right now) and then rolling the dice on Allard, Soroka, McCarthy (would trade him too, but I cannot imagine he would have much of a market), Fried, Gohara and Wisler. The Braves need bullpen help and third base help (yes, it is nice to have third shortstop in the infield, but the late inning heroics of Camargo....and Flaherty and Culberson for that matter...will soon reveal themselves to be a pumpkin carriage hauled by three mice).

Watch Pittsburgh...they have some very interesting under the radar a bit players they could dump. Texas...will Beltre jump to have a shot at the playoffs...the Rangers are doing a bit of showcasing....Minor would be a nice piece for someone, but as a starter or a reliver?

The next 21 days will be fun....
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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