The Truth Is We Suck....And We Know It

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

The Truth Is We Suck....And We Know It

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:14 am

We do our best. Every year, we do our best.
But every year, we get our ass handed to us.
The thing is, sometimes in this hobby, we are not trying to see who the best forecaster is, but we try to be the best of the worst.
I looked over a few Main Event drafts last year. There are a lot more bad picks than good picks.
You may say this is impossible. That eventually, all picks even out.
They don't.
Many players are sent to the minors. Many players get hurt. Many players simply, under perform.
These players are replaced, mostly, by players we did/would not draft in a Main Event.

When drafting, some drafters try to find the most 'value' out of players. The reckoning is that they will select a player in the fifth round this year, but surely, that player will be selected in the top four rounds the following year.
Hardly ever does it work that way.
Oh sure, occasionally it happens, but for the most part, eh, no.

Here is the fifth round of my Main Event draft from last year.....


5 1 McCutchen, Andrew
5 2 Abreu, Jose
5 3 Oh, Seung Hwan
5 4 Britton, Zach
5 5 Yelich, Christian
5 6 Myers, Wil
5 7 Melancon, Mark
5 8 Lucroy, Jonathan
5 9 Carpenter, Matt 3B
5 10 Schwarber, Kyle
5 11 Diaz, Edwin
5 12 Contreras, Willson
5 13 Trumbo, Mark
5 14 Ramirez, Hanley
5 15 LeMahieu, DJ

Other than to illustrate the folly of taking Closers too early, the list tells that no drafter got a whole lot of 'value' in the fifth round.
We were better off with Abreu, Yelich, and Contreras who at least didn't 'give away' value.
We could even say that this was a 'survival round' in that 15 selections were made and that a drafter was better off if not getting negative value from a player.

Go back through any draft last year.
It is true that there will be many more bad picks than good.
A player can get hurt, under perform, get caught taking PED's, get sent to the minors, lose their role, slump.
All these items conform to make a pick a bad pick.
The only way to make a pick good, is if the player performs at or above his average.
A lot more can go wrong than right.

Top picks are the toughest. A lot more is expected from our top picks.
So when Madison Bumgarner can't ride a trike or Miguel Cabrera has an aching back, or Jonathon Villar plays like he is entitled instead of hustling, it hurts those drafters badly.
This goes against the grain of most drafters stating that the draft becomes more difficult as it progresses.
In actuality, the toughest part of the draft is the first few rounds.

I quietly snicker (QS, not LOL) when a drafter proclaims a 30-30 or 50 home run season for a player just drafted.
Is he trying to sell us or himself?
The truth is, that player will probably perform below expectations.
Most do.
This hobby is not easy.
A gardener buys a rose and finds it is dead when getting it home.
A stamp collector pays top dollar for a rare stamp, only to see that it is forged when getting it home.
In our hobby, stuff like this happens every year.
Rarely do we get what we pay for.
Yet, here we are.
Willing to try till we get it right.... knowing it will never happen.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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