I love the feeling of Stupid

[DOUGHBOYS]

We see it all the time.
"I hope you are in my draft!"
"That draft was too easy, no wonder he finished so high!"
"Were those drafters drunk?"

Drafts are always easier when the season is done. No doubt about it.
I am in a draft currently that has Jake Arrieta available in the ninth round.
His ADP IS 80, which puts him as the fifth pick in the sixth round.
An Arrieta fan might say, "I hope you are in my draft", to any of us drafting.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with our skills. We know Arrieta is there and way past ADP.
And good drafters don't care.
Personally, I've passes on Arrieta because there are too many questions about him.
His slowly eroding skills and two miles an hour less on his fastball are concerning as well.
Still, somebody will draft him soon and when he does, he can either cry "VALUE" or want to take a shower.

If I am wrong about Arrieta, some numbskull will say, "That draft was too easy, no wonder he finished so high!"
Arrieta in the ninth round with second round numbers makes it look that way.
But, here we are in December, we don't know which team Arrieta will sign.
We don't know if he'll get 'fat' after signing a big contract.
And we know he's not the pitcher he was two years ago.
Or so we think....

If Arrieta falls to the 11th round, the questions about drafters soberness begins.
How can a pitcher have an ADP drop to the 11TH round, twice his ADP?
It would be because 15 drafters have lesser opinions of Arrieta than the masses.
It happens.
It is why we see such a wide variance in ADP's in regards to being picked in the third round of one draft, the 11th in another.
The perfect draft for us would be to covet 30 players that the other 14 drafters despise.
But, that won't happen.
And even if it did, everybody has their price.
If Joey Votto fell to the third round, I would draft him.
It's not about 'value' or 'policing' a draft. It is that I have Votto as third round material, even if I can't stand the way he makes me feel in watching him from a fantasy perspective.

Giancarlo Stanton was a large injury risk.
JD Martinez wouldn't be healthy at the beginning of the year.
Corey Kluber was good, not dominant.
Drafters dropped them accordingly.
In October, we're smart. Results are known.
Stupid drafters. How could they miss on Stanton, Martinez, and Kluber?
Amazing what two months can do.
Because here we are again.
Stupid again.
It is fantasy baseball.
We're all Smart in October. We're all Stupid in December.
I love the feeling of Stupid.

Edit- Oh, and one more thing...
This is the time of year when the 'Forecaster' comes out along with a slow trickle of magazines.
There job is to sound smart.
And they do.
'Sound' smart, I mean.
The reality is that if you are reading this, you probably have just as much fantasy sense as those who like to 'sound' smart.
Don't be fooled.
Don't let them dissuade you.
I purposely did not read the Forecaster last year and won my league.
Sometimes, outside sources do more harm than good.

Re-Edit- That sounded a little terse.
By all means, read the Forecaster.
I guess what I was trying to say is that we all get caught up in things.
For three and a half years, we shrug our shoulders at politics.
Then, we let outside influences, sometimes, allow us to get caught up in something we really have no business getting caught up in. They make us care for a few months leading up to the election.

Read the Forecaster. It's entertaining and the Numerish is fun.
Or, don't read it.
It is NOT the fantasy Bible.
Like religion itself, there are many factions to fantasy baseball.
They spout contact rate and Px and scads of other symbols and abbreviations.
And if that works for you, wonderful.
There are zillions of ways to win a fantasy league.
The Forecaster is one.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Full disclosure- I did order the Forecaster this year.
I am going to try it from a different angle.
But that is a story for later....