Bad Waiter Syndrome

[DOUGHBOYS]

Sometimes I scoff at current Major League pitchers. It's not their fault.
Agents, trainers, and clubs have assisted in making pitchers like bad waiters in a ritzy restaurant, giving us less of their time while expecting a larger tip.
I have self-lingo for pitchers to match these times.
If a pitcher pitches six innings, no matter the runs allowed, it is a 'Maximum Expectancy' game.
We use to snicker at the thought of a six inning, three earned runs games being called a 'quality start'.
Nobody laughs any longer.
Managers are hopeful that their pitchers throw six innings for their teams.
If throwing six innings, Starters have fulfilled all Manager expectations.

Chris Sale is the only pitcher in baseball who averages over seven innings per start.
Seven innings is a 'Complete Game' in my self-lingo.
Eight innings is a 'Completer Game'.
Nine innings is a 'Completest Game'.
There have been 39 'completest Games' this year.
Just five years ago, there were 128 'Completest Games'.

It's a trend that won't stop.
Can you even imagine pitch counts increasing? Yeah, neither can I.
That is also the mindset of every Major League club.
The 'Bad Waiter Syndrome' will continue in baseball with pitchers.
They continue to be the most sought commodity, while returning less production.
Justin Verlander is said to be a quality trading piece at the stiffest of prices.
He is averaging less than six innings per start.
Yet, Verlander leads baseball in pitches thrown.
Is Verlander more valuable in that teams can expect more pitches from him or less valuable because he throws less innings with those pitches?
Like an old beer commercial...
More Pitches!
Less innings!
More Pitches!
Less innings!
I digress.

Last year was the first complete Major League season in history with less than 100 Complete Games.
There were 83.
This year, we are heading for the 60..ish mark.
Just 20 years ago, there were 266 Complete Games.

What does this trend mean?
For fantasy baseball, it means lowering expectations.
Less Wins. For sure.
If the trend continues as rapidly as over the last 20 years, the Wins statistic, itself, will be in jeopardy.
Baseball will have to make a decision in lowering the standards for the Win or phasing it out altogether.

Robbie Ray has been one of the most valuable pitchers in fantasy this year.
Most will say it is because of his nine in 19 Win chances or his 149 strike outs.
Neither would be possible without his Manager maxing him out in most good starts.
A commitment not afforded most Starters.
Ray has been allowed to throw 98 pitches in 17 of his 19 starts. Topping 110 pitches in four starts.
You may think this is the product of a Manager with a poorer bullpen or a Manager who plays loose with the pitch count.
Nope.
Fellow Arizona ace, Zack Greinke averages 100 pitches per start. Never throwing more than 110 pitches.
Ray is allowed more pitches in some starts because his Manager realizes he needs more pitches to maximize the possibility for an Arizona victory.
In the end, Greinke has thrown more pitches.
He is more consistent in his 100+ pitches per game and is more efficient in throwing 15 pitches an inning, while Ray takes closer to 17.
Fantasy enthusiasts may have to look at statistics like PPS or Pitches Per Start instead of innings.
Or even PPGS, Pitches Per Good Start.

Batters are striking out more frequently. This has helped in keeping strike outs comparative to past years.
If that trend fades, individual pitchers striking out even 200 batters will become rarer.
The perfect storm of Chris Sale being the premier k artist, and being the only pitcher allowed to average over seven innings a start, and strike outs increasing per batter have made a 300 strike out season possible this year.
Sale has gotten to 200 strike outs faster than any other pitcher in baseball history. 141 innings.
And possibly, Max Scherzer who averages just under seven innings per start, could also join Sale with 300.
I'm looking forward to it.
I believe it will be the last time we will see a 300 strike out season by a pitcher.


For the baseball fan, it'll mean less individual achievements.
The 'Perfect Game'...The 'No-Hitter'...The 'Shutout' will become team accomplishments. Seldom performed by individuals.
We used to think of a combined no-hitter as being rare. It will become more common than the starting pitcher performing the task.
Already, shared 'Shutouts' are the norm.
Did you know that there have been 149 shutouts in baseball this year?
Only 18 of those, by one pitcher.
The Dodgers have 10 shutouts.
One by a Starter, nine by staff.

It doesn't make baseball any worse or any better.
It's just a change.
A change that has actually been part of an overall trend since baseball began.
We have gone from Starters throwing every day, to every other day, to every three days, to now throwing every five or sixth day.
We have gone from pitchers expected to throw every inning of a game, to most of a game, to now, two thirds of a game.
And more importantly, we have gone from pitch counts not being a thought to pitch count clickers monitored in every dugout.
Those pitch counts are sure to shrink as more years go by.
These pitchers will ask for even more money for less performance.
This trend has been true since free agency began.
And one that is sure to continue.