Babe or Shandler: Edge to the Babe

[DOUGHBOYS]

Take a look at RotoWorld updates.
Read the Baseball Forecaster.
Listen to any SABR.
All of these folks seem to fear the one thing that Babe Ruth told us never to fear almost 100 years ago.
The strike out.

We play in the NFBC. The strike out is like a pop up or ground ball. The strike out is an at bat. An out.
Like any other out.
Yet, all these scribes, all these experts want to read more into the strike out.
As if a strike out counts as a two at bat demerit.
They love putting the strike out together with the walk.
A k/bb ratio.
It sounds smart, but it's stupid.
The strike out has nothing to do with a walk.
Nothing.

For the most part, strike outs come more from power hitters than other hitters. They are looking to do more damage than a punch and judy hitter.
They may go outside of the strike zone more. They may have 'wilder' swings than most players.
And for some reason, these experts want to penalize them more than other hitters.
Here is a typical blurb from RotoWorld today....

'Khris Davis finished 1-for-3 with a two-run home run, a walk and two runs scored on Tuesday against the Rays.
Davis had a chance to be the hero in the bottom of the ninth inning against Tampa closer Alex Colome. The slugger worked his way into a 3-0 count, but the pitcher quickly turned the tables and ending up striking out Davis instead. If you're a fantasy owner of Davis, you take the good with the bad, and Tuesday's stat line is certainly a microcosm of his season.'

Negative connotations abound!

Davis leads baseball in striking out. It's the cost of doing business. He is also third in baseball with 27 home runs.
Now, how much do you care how many times Khris Davis walks?
I own him and I don't care.
Really, his 27/125 hr/k ratio is much more important.
I will trade five strike outs for a home run.

Broadcasters and scribes harp on 'productive outs'.
In the NFBC, unless driving in a run, there is no such thing as a productive out.
An at bat, making any out, is unproductive for us!
A piece of the ball that is hit for a pop up to the catcher is unproductive for all.
A strike out, the same.
Yet, that piece of the ball struck is a merit in terms of contact rate.
Woo hoo.

There are those that have been expecting 'regression' from Aaron Judge all year because of his 117 strike outs.
Regression, by the way, is another smart word.
It means that a player is falling out of the norm expected by experts and that experts can't be wrong, so they spout 'regression'.
How can Judge 'regress' when he has no past?
Just what is he regressing to?
Nobody knows.
But experts did not expect these kind of statistics from Judge. So, he must regress!
Shandler took a year before realizing that regression was never coming for Mike Trout.
Good times.

Judge has a homer for every four strike outs.
I'll take that in a New York Minute.
And if it 'regresses' to one in every five or six strike outs, I'll take that too!

Experts attach strike outs to everybody in the same way.
They are NOT a one size-fits all statistic.
To Aaron Judge, a strike out is part of the power game.
To Dustin Pedroia, it is a battle lost.
To Byron Buxton, it is 'not getting it'.

The top 25 strike out hitters (missers) in baseball have double digit home runs, except for Jonathon Villar.
Villar is confused and thinks he's a power hitter after his year, last year.
Clearing suffering from 'Homeritis'.
When getting over the disease, he will be a better hitter.
But, the top 25 strike out artists are there for a reason.
They are swinging hard.
They will hit more home runs.
They will strike out more.
No big deal.
An easy concept.
No smart words or new stats needed.

Fans are enthralled by Statcast.
A ball traveling at 115 mph gets a lot of attention.
What I'm left wondering is the mph of the bat swing itself.
I'm betting that mph of bat swing equals more mph when the ball is struck correctly.
The trade off for the velocity of that bat swing are less balls struck correctly and more balls missed.

I'd be more concerned if Khris Davis improved his contact percentage or k rate.
I know that it would most likely come at the cost of what I drafted Khris Davis for.
Home runs!
Babe Ruth's full quote from almost 100 years ago was, "Never let the fear of striking out ever get in your way."
He was talking to younger hitters.
The quote works the same for NFBC players today.