I Don't Know & Neither Do You

[DOUGHBOYS]

How do I prepare for the 2015 season?
If asked right now, I may take hitters with my first 14 picks and only then start taking pitchers. Our hobby has changed.
Half of our stats are provided by pitchers.
And pitchers are dead men walking.
Or living on borrowed time.
Or at the top of a cliff, clinging by their ulnar.
Any time we select a pitcher now, we are going through a virtual mine field in the selection.

Our fantasy lives turns the tables on real life.
Old Man Ibanez sucks but is healthy.
Young Jose Fernendez is virile and dashing and in the hospital.
Troy Tulowitzki, an abuser of Workman's Comp, is healthy and working.
Prince Fielder who never misses a day of work, is taking sick leave.
Boston can't seem to win without Jacoby Ellsbury.
The Yankees can't seem to win with him.
Dee Gordon is Billy Hamilton.
And Billy Hamilton is going to be ok. Just not a 4th round pick.

Pitchers like DeGrom, Whitley, Di Scarfinwhatever, and Shoemaker are already in the Big Leagues. Just two short months ago, none were even a thought for 50 round leagues.
We still don't really know who will be the Big Closer for some teams. The A's are in the middle of a merry-go- round. The White Sox had a sucky Closer, now they have to find another one. The Orioles don't have a clue who is Closing and I think the first time Qualls gets lit up, the Astros are back to square one.
Rosenthal, Jansen, and Chapman were in with the group of Closers that went in early rounds. Those choosing Papelbon, Street, and Cishek later in rounds have fared better.
We still don't know what happens in Cleveland and there are messed up situations brewing with other teams too.
Folks show their teams at the beginning of a year with only one Closer and others criticize for being 'short on Saves'. As if it is better to have a guy like Axford or Veras or Jimmy Johnson, who currently had a Closer job, knowing they were just renting the job.

Bryce Harper goes down and the 'I told you so' birds start chirping. Tulo plays on and it is courtesy of the 'Fantasy Gods'.
Sometimes, we're a stupid bunch.
Harper and Tulo are gifted hitters. But in a fantasy sense, they are the dumb jocks at a high school. They rely 100% on their athletic ability, disregarding their health and well-being. For Harper, it means flying around on a field making unnecessary dives and crashes. For Tulo it means making twisting turning plays even if not mandated. It catches up to both of them nearly every season. Harper has already met his maker this season. Tulo, currently making deals with the Grim Reaper.

So, it all leads back to the first sentence of this post.
Is Kershaw, Tanaka, or Cueto first round material next year?
I don't think so.
The way pitchers are falling to a ligamint has me scared of any pitcher.

So, who are the top 15 players for 2015 right now?
I'll give it a try here and then you can agree or disagree.
As everyone knows with lists like this, nobody is right or wrong.
So here we go....

1. Mike Trout
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Carlos Gomez
6. Andrew McCutchen
7. Giancarlo Stanton
8. Jose Abreu
9. Carlos Gonzalez
10. Yasiel Puig
11. Chris Davis
12. Edwin Encarnacion
13. Adam Jones
14. Jose Bautista
15. Freddy Freeman

These are in kind of a semi-order, but not a whole lot of thought went into it.
But, I do believe if drafts were held today, that this would be close to the adp we would have.
Some will disagree, saying that Tulo and Stanton have just not had their injury yet. And I agree, but till then, we have to give them their due.
Some of the names are there because of past years. Some, because of this year.
With Clayton Kershaw looking like Sammy Kershaw and Yu throwing like Hugh Grant, I couldn't put a pitcher in here. Maybe with a TJ already under his belt, Adam Wainwright becomes a thought.
I don't know.
And that's the point of this year, we all just don't know.

[Captain Hook]

too true ... but pitchers by their nature have always been a bigger risk. We are just seeing more and more injuries in a $$$ based game.

[Outlaw]

Enjoyable Read Dan... don't know why you don't write for a mainstream fantasy site, you always appear to be ahead of the curve...

any ways.. my take

1. Mike Trout
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Carlos Gomez - HE Gone replaced by Dozier
6. Andrew McCutchen
7. Giancarlo Stanton
8. Jose Abreu
9. Carlos Gonzalez
10. Yasiel Puig
11. Chris Davis- HE gone replaced by Greinke
12. Edwin Encarnacion
13. Adam Jones - he gone repalced by Tanaka
14. Jose Bautista
15. Freddy Freeman

also mine are in no partuclar order, but i did throw in 2 pitchers, at least for next year appear to be least risky top pitchers to injury. I actually prefer 5 other hitters also to Jones and Davis. Chris Davis is quickly becoming and enigma.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Thanks Mike, appreciated.

I have to laugh at myself. Tulo has kept himself healthy less than two months and I have him high on a list for next year.
That's the way we are though.
We are definitely a 'What have you done for me lately' crew.
Chris Davis hits over 50 homers last year, but has the gall to get hurt and hit more homers in one game than all season?
Screw him!
Down the totem pole he goes!
Is three year sets of stts better than a one year collection?
I use to think so. I used to think it gives players a better indicator or track record.
These folks would prefer a Joey Votto over a Yasiel Puig or Abreu.
Is that good?
I don't think so either.

Last year at this time, if we even knew who Jose Abreu was, we were calling him Jose Dariel Abreu. Now, he's a probable first rounder.
We live in a time of fantasy baseball where changes are coming as fast as a good NFL draft in fantasy football.
We put Tulo and Stanton on this list but would we draft them with a lot of money on the line?
I don't know.

Pitchers?
FUHGEDDABOUT IT!

Verlander and Scherzer have back to back crappy starts. And while their owners are cursing them through one side of their mouths, they're hoping there is no underlying factor in their elbow that prompted the bad outings.
So, we're cursing their performance while hoping they can take the mound again.

[Outlaw]

Dan sounds like you hate the word elbow these days.... even tonight i see Wacha and elbow and I say not again, but then see, just a foul ball on the elbow sitting in dugout.... but its all about the elbow these days and no one knows why and certainly not even the best fantasy players... like you say, total crapshoot...

[KJ Duke]

Dee Gordon is Billy Hamilton.
And Billy Hamilton is going to be ok. Just not a 4th round pick.

Don't write off Billy as a top 3rd-4th rounder just yet, Dough. Up to 18 SBs in spite of a horrendous start and some missed time. Dee has 27 now. The SB race will be more interesting than the HR crown this season.