The Head Start

[DOUGHBOYS]

Remember when we were younger and we'd race as kids?
The faster kids would give the slower kids a head start. Just enough of a head start to make the race more competitive and for that ego boost that comes with blowing by somebody at the finish line.

How does that relate to fantasy baseball?
Or Stats Ball?
Thanks to KJ, I'm going to go back to calling it Stats Ball. But only here.
'Fantasy baseball' carries a negative connotation among so many folks. Some people think we fantasize about being Big League ball players, so we do what we do.
Bah!
We merely enjoy using the stats from the game. When 'Our player' comes up, we're not wishing we were him, we're only wishing for good stats, but 'outside' folks don't see this.
It may be a little arrogant to change the term 'fantasy baseball' here, a title that has become ingrained everywhere, and change it to 'Stat Ball'.
So be it.
I've been called worse than arrogant before. This is a pin drop of a place on the fantasy baseball map, so I don't see much harm.

Anyway, getting back to how head starts relates to us...

We are at the point now where we don't know what kind of ball player Carl Crawford is. He hasn't played much in two years. And when he has played, he's been nothing special. Certainly, not near the player of his Tampa Bay days.
Blame it on him for taking the most money.
Blame it on the Red Sox for signing a round peg to fit a square hole.
Blame it on Rio.
But, if you drafted him this year, blame yourself.
The news was there. He would start the season hurt with little said about coming back soon.
In effect, the folks who drafted him, were giving league mates a head start.
Only, the other kids were not slower.

There are 28 Main Event leagues in our contest. Of those 28 leagues, if the season were to end now, only two Crawford owners would cash in.
420 teams in the Main Event Overall. Only three in the top 100 have Crawford rostered.

These owners don't know what they'll get from Crawford when he does come back. Daniel Nava may give them more than Crawford, Not because Nava is a better player. Nava just knows what he is doing for the Red Sox. His role is defined and he's comfortable.
Crawford did not look Red Sox friendly when he did play last year. The replay most shown from Red Sox highlights last year was Crawford's futile attempt at catching the ball that put a stake through Red Sox fans hearts of being in the playoffs.
This year, the Red Sox themselves, could be out of the pennant race when Crawford comes back, which may lead to a lot of 'rests' on the bench to make sure he is ready for next year.
Crawford did play in 130 games last year. Most would think it was a lot less. He stole only 18 bases. His forte, and the main reason he is selected so high in drafts. In 2007, he played in 143 games and stole 50 bases.
It's clear that Carl Crawford was the king pin and lynch pin for the Rays. With the Red Sox , he's more of a safety pin. He had over 400 at bats batting sixth or below in the lineup, less than 100 hitting 1-5.

For owners this year, Crawford has been a burden as both a wasted high draft pick and one less bench spot.
Penalties are severe in drafting any injured player. Especially in the NFBC.
Crawford's 'after March 1' adp was 82. A sixth round draft selection. Right next to him in that adp is Adam Jones. Although calling out either name can be construed as a calculated gamble, Jones owners, at the least, had a warm body on the field, and at the most, well, they have a break out year.

What about Crawford's future?
He's on the wrong side of 30 now. A time where the speed starts diminishing. He's on a team that will probably have a high turnover during the end of the year and off season. It'll only be then that we could really put an estimation as to Crawford's adp next year. Best case scenario is that he becomes a needed cog, not just a spare part. If Ellsbury is gone, he'll need to be sold on the fact that he owns the top of the lineup. If Ellsbury is there, Red Sox management will need to give him his role. Be it teamed up with Ellsbury at the top of the lineup or as a middle of the lineup disrupter (that should be a word, spell checker, you're killing me!)
As for our Stats Ball use, Crawford will always be over drafted in some leagues no matter what. Some can't resist the physical abilities, preferring to draft the body and hoping the head follows.
He's a 'projectionist' dream. He can still be projected as a 20/60 hitter, even though the odds are slim of that happening. But, projectionists would not be laughed at, in predicting those numbers.

For the first 10 weeks of the season, Crawford has been as good as Drew Storen, or Chris Carpenter, or Stephen Drew, but the cost for his owners has been significantly higher.
For the owners of Crawford, I hope he comes back and plays well during the second half. Most likely, he can never furnish sixth round numbers, even with a herculean effort. But maybe he can play well enough to remind them of why he was drafted, and be a reminder to all of us to stay away from injured players on draft day.
That head start given to the other kids is a bitch to make up.

[Money Men]

The only defense I can offer as a Crawford owner is the elbow injury was an unknown at the time of the draft.

We were all going off of reports of the wrist injury and when he would recover and return from it. Many had pegged him and Dunn as key bounce back vets - the kind of guys with a track record coming off a subpar season who lead many fantasy teams to the promised land the following year.

The news about the elbow injury and his inability to throw didn't pop up until after the season had started.

Now we can debate the merits of selecting injured players and saving a roster spot for them forever. Crawford just happened to be the rare guy who went injury-injury instead of Missouri-Missouri.

(But I'm still hoping for a speed boost when he returns post All-Star break).

[DOUGHBOYS]

Now we can debate the merits of selecting injured players and saving a roster spot for them forever.

I usually go with the 'half theory' after the first six weeks of the season.
I don't trust time frames given by teams in the first six weeks, they are often wrong.
After that time, it's the half theory.
The half theory works like this...
We are in our 11th week of 26 weeks. 15 weeks to go.
If I had a player go down now and the news is that he will be out for eight weeks or more, I would more than likely cut him. If it's 4-8 weeks, I hedge and try to find out more.
Players usually do not beat the time frame and are not usually 'themselves' when first getting back.
As always, there are exceptions to the rule-
Any first rounder or second rounder that are 'difference makers' would be exceptions.
In fact, any difference makers would be exceptions. Kipnis, Harper, and Trout would be difference makers. Peralta, Erick Aybar, and Kendry Morales would not.
By dropping these guys immediately, somebody in our league will spend $$$ to get them, after all, they are Brand Names, and take up a valuable bench spot playing the waiting game. A game that is tough to win.
Almost any pitcher would most likely be cut. Pitchers almost never beat the timetable. And, teams are more careful with pitchers. We're probably not going to see that pitcher perform to high standards, especially near the end of the year with his team out of the pennant race. This where we see a pitcher get bombed and have him say, "I used all my pitches and treated it like spring training, I'm just glad I'm healthy again". This comment pisses off every owner of his, of course.
If in the pennant race, they'll be super careful with him, or if that good, hold him out of late season games to be ready for the playoffs.
Lose/lose.

Just my take...