Cloudy, With a Chance of Rizzo

[DOUGHBOYS]

The more I try to read into minor league stats, the more perplexed I get. Sometimes, I think it is all for nothing.
We have no idea how these kids are going to react when they hit the Big Time. Albert Pujols, with little fanfare took to hitting Big League pitching as f it were High School ball. At the same time, there are guys with fanfare like Matt LaPorta who is just mashing the ball at AAA (again), and we know good and well that LaPorta will probably fail again when being called up.

There were many minor league followers that hailed the Kansas City Royals as the team of the future. Well, there future is here and they don't look good.
Hosmer, Gordon, Moustakas, and Hochevar have all had moments of greatness. But, none can really be called a 'Star'. The Royals have an ownership that is similar to cult leaders (forgive the comparison, I am not CALLING them cult leaders, only recognizing the similarities), while taking in money from season ticket holders and fans, they promise a bright future, of a coming that will be glorious, a coming that only they will see. Blah, blah, blah.
Omaha has seen the value of the Royals system, while Kansas City remains a way station for the New York's, Boston's, and other high paying teams of baseball. In effect, their own minor league team.

Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey were going to be pitching dominatrix. Instead, Hughes is used and Homer is homer'ed every other start. Max Scherzer, a sure thing, became anything but.
And yet, less heralded pitchers like Henderson Alvarez, Jerome Williams (the later version), and Ryan Vogelsong seemingly flip a switch and all of a sudden, 'Get it'.

Fantasy-wise, I refuse to pay much for a top prospect. For every Braun, there seems to be 10 Rizzo's or LaPorta's.
Mike Trout did not 'get it' last year. This year, he does. The time frames vary also.
Bryce Harper seems to get it. But, we thought the same thing of Hosmer last year. The only thing I can say about Harper is that his power is real. I predict before the year is through, that Harper hits one of the five longest homers in the Bigs....and it'll be hyped till we want to hide.
The arm is above average, but gets over hyped with each throw. His speed is just a bit over average and that also gets hyped. His fielding is average or even below and he has already shown some chinks here.
His hitting is what will determine how long his stay is in the Big Leagues. My opinion, which really means little, is that Harper goes through bouts of inconsistency. Affordable for the Nats, since injuries dictate that Harper be in the lineup. But, if Harper struggles over a longer period of time, his psyche becomes part of the thought process.

Rookies are like the weather. We have experts telling us what is going to happen, but all to often they're wrong. My Aunt Ruth always said to plan for a bad day and smile when it isn't.
That is the attitude I take when drafting or bidding on rookies, expect the worst, and smile if the worst never comes.