Aesop's Faables

[DOUGHBOYS]

We can call this a continuation of my last post. Only this will deal more with the faab process itself. Faab is the most puzzling part of the NFBC for new folks. I get a lot of PM's from new folks and more than 50% ask about faab.
When giving it a lot of thought, it's a horrible process. Mostly because we are so limited by all of us being online instead of live.

Let's say I lost Mariano Rivera and wanted to replace him with both Robertson and Soriano. If the bidding were live, I would call out Robertson's name and most likely pay through the roof for his services. This happened here last week. Now, that I've secured Robertson, I'd want to handcuff Soriano. With Robertson already rostered, Soriano means more to me than the other 14 teams and he would be obtained for less money.

In our world, we pick two numbers and hope for the best. Worst case scenario would be to have little faith in Soriano and picking him up while losing Robertson.
Or sometimes we'll need four or five players and start strings for each dropped player. When we see the players received, we may get players that all have the same strengths and weaknesses, simply because those are the players that fell to us. So much luck is involved.
Like I said, a horrible process, but it's the best we got unless somebody can come up with something better.

We all have different thoughts about what our bench should look like.
When I first started here, I wanted coverage at as many positions as possible in case of injury. It sounds good, but most of the time the bench players ARE bench players and shouldn't be in the lineup anyway.
I've changed my thinking to get the best 30 players I can and have a nice mix of hitting and pitching reserves.
If injury occurs, I'll fix that with the next faab.

There was a post today that stated a catcher was picked up even though the bidder hadn't a need at catcher. If the catcher is a good enough hitter (Flores, in this case), having three catchers is all good.
However, he also stated that one reason was to possibly block another team in need of a catcher.
At this time of year, we really don't know who our true competition is. At the end of the year, he may need the team he blocked the catcher from getting to pass a team that he is in direct competition with in rbi or home runs, we don't know. Blocking a team for the sake of blocking a team at this time of year is meritless.

The most asked question is how much to bid.
First, I don't judge my bids by what the second bidder bid. I don't care. If I have a large need for a player, I will over bid. I will compare my bids with those from other leagues the next day, because I feel that those bidders had the same need I did.
I felt a couple of my teams needed more speed this past weekend. I set out to get Bernadina, Blanco, and Gentry or even two of them.
Bernadina has played well, has a spot near the top of the lineup, and has that mix of power and speed that fantasy folks like. I thought about bidding $100 with the thought of crushing all other bids. But the more I thought about the weaknesses of Bernadina's game....the hit in batting average, previous benchings and being sent down, and being a little injury prone....that $100 became $75, and the $75 became $55. I got Bernadina in one league and not the other. If I hadn't hedged my bets, I would have gotten him in both, but he is only filling (for my teams) one category of need.

Pitchers are different. Closers this year are out of the ordinary. It seems like there are two or three new ones each week. For the most part, they are lesser pitchers trying to fill a Managers dream. Santiago, Cashner, Cishek, Lidge, and Cordero have all gone for huge amounts of dough and given little in return. We are a 'I want it now! ' society, and when it's thought that a closer has the job, the money follows.
Unless absolutely desperate, I won't be a bidder. Instead looking to catch $1 or $2 lightning in a bottle by faabing a closer in waiting....Which with this year's pace, that wait will be a short one.

Starters are a different breed. A lot depends on whether they are fully in the rotation, their ability to get strike outs, the teams that are coming up on their schedule, and for streamers, how soon before he has a two start week.
I wanted Christian Friedrich (Now there is a name out of the tv show, 'Frasier')this week for all my teams. He impressed me with his first outing and he was signed with the thought that he could be a number two starter some day.
The fact that he has two starts, one at home (Sea) and one on the road (SF) actually worked against me a bit.
I have to increase my bid for Friedrich to leapfrog the planners and streamers that had less longer term faith in him, but liked his chances against those teams.
Depending on team, my bids were in the 30's and 40's and he was secured on each team.

Right now, we are buying players from faab. We should be paying more because we get these players services for the next 20 weeks. Saving faab and having the most faab money in your league has never been my style. And I'm a tightwad!
I'd rather be paying for players over a long period of time, than renting the players with two or three weeks to go in the season. If I have triple digit faab by the time September starts, I consider that a fail as to how I spent my faab. We won't need all that money in September. The rosters grow and predicting who will do well over just a months time is a lot harder than riding a player now with the ability to drop him for under performance.

This post is a little boring for the NFBC vets. For the new guys, keep fighting the fight. Nobody gets it right all the time and sometimes we're just attaching our saddle bags to a horse and hoping for a long ride.
Hope this helped.

[Edwards Kings]

There was a post today that stated a catcher was picked up even though the bidder hadn't a need at catcher. If the catcher is a good enough hitter (Flores, in this case), having three catchers is all good.
However, he also stated that one reason was to possibly block another team in need of a catcher.
At this time of year, we really don't know who our true competition is. At the end of the year, he may need the team he blocked the catcher from getting to pass a team that he is in direct competition with in rbi or home runs, we don't know. Blocking a team for the sake of blocking a team at this time of year is meritless.

Good post, as always Dan! But there is an error in your logic you may want to consider.

Your contention is that blocking a position for a team now is meritless because at the end of the year, it may be advantageous to have the blocked team get stats that will pass a team in direct competition. It is a supposition on one potential scenario, of course, and I understand that. But by being supposition, the converse could be true as well. What if one of the teams in need of a catcher this week is the team that WOULD have been in direct competition in the first place rather than the one needing to be used to pass? We just do not know.

And your further point is well taken. We still have 20 periods of stats to accumulate. Why should the team that needs the catcher be allowed access to the better option (potentially) for 20 periods if it can be avoided with only a reasonable expenditure of resources? In this case especially since Ramos has a torn ACL and Flores is more than a 15-day DL replacement.

Just the flip side of the coin.

[DOUGHBOYS]

A fair and logical response, Wayne!

At this time of year, I do not consider blocking as strategical. It's not strategical till later when categories of need show themselves to a better degree. Right now, we don't even know who the contenders will be, although some teams are laying good ground work.
It is merely blocking because of wanting a third catcher more than the blockee wanted a second catcher, or at the least, THAT second catcher.

I'll just add my new thread to this reply since I'm here....

Speaking of NFBC decisions, here's a little story that you may find interesting. All of you know the competitiveness of Gekko. How he'll mislead or tout or anything to get a perceived edge, right?
In 2007, Gekko, Shawn, and I were in the top five teams coming down the stretch. No brag, just fact.
We kept in touch either on the Boards or e-mails. I remember asking Mark, after faab, what his lineup would be either the last week of the season or next to the last week of the season, I don't remember which.
He responded, 'Wouldn't you like to know!'
That response had me chuckling for weeks after the season. Hell, it still makes me laugh.
And true to his word, he did not post his REAL' lineup till deadline time.
Did it matter?
No.
But in some way, Mark felt he had something that I wished I had so he didn't give it to me.


I was asked by John Pausma, who by the way is the current leader of our event, if I could post the first round from the Pre-Mature Draft that takes place immediately after the current season ends.
Here it is:

1. Kemp
2. Tulo
3. Ellsbury
4. Pujols
5. AdGonzalez
6. Braun
7. Granderson
8. Cabrera
9. Upton
10. Bautista
11. Fielder
12. Votto
13. Cano
14. Longoria
15. Kershaw

As you can see, this draft is more predicated on how players finished last year. Before the hype machines begin. Granderson was poo-poo'ed during the off season as regressing to being mean. So, he dropped in subsequent drafts.
Cabrera would rise later after the Prince signing and the knowing of 3b eligibility.
Everytthing else is a little displaced but the same group of characters.
Yu Darvish was taken way later (15th round) since there were no guaranties that he was even coming to America.
Brett Lawrie had shown enough to be drafted in the fourth round.
Unfortunately for some, injuries occur during the playoffs and Ryan Howard was taken in the second round.
If any other questions about the draft, just ask, I'll be glad to answer.....


38 homers-103 rbi

37 homers- 99 rbi

38 homers- 120 rbi

This isn't to wax nostalgia over former Pujols numbers. Well, kinda.
These are the numbers of Adam Dunn, Pujols, and Prince Fielder before being traded to the American League.
It's a tough transition, FOR ANYBODY.
I stayed away from Pujols this year. Change for any first round pick is usually not for the good. Same with Fielder. We fall into the trap of putting stats on 'auto'. Forgetting that these players are going through drastic changes and that the past is merely just that, the past.

Regression to the mean is not a rule. Regression is mean.....now THAT is a rule.
For Dunn, that regression lasted all year last year. This year he has rebounded to 'the usual' Dunn numbers.
For Pujols and Fielder, we don't know. So far, Fielder has adjusted a little better than Pujols. Still, Tigers and Angels fans are feeling what White Sox fans felt last year.
A little gypped.

[OaktownSteve]

I've been playing roto for as long as anybody pretty much besides the guys who invented it. I ran my first league in 1985. But this is the first year I've ever been in a FAAB league and man is it brutal. I screwed up FAAB so bad that I was embarrassed. I bid $121 dollars for a guy that was useless. Nobody else bid for him and I cut him two weeks later. I was so mad at myself I couldn't even log on to the site for two days. When I analyzed it in the days since the first thought I had was that I couldn't believe I had even bothered to go after this guy. Some how the process had short circuited my logic center. Second I couldn't believe that I hadn't understood how to arrive at least a reasonable bid. I realized that emotion had just totally taken me over because my team came out very cold and I was in last and the uncertainty of FAAB was driving me gooney. There is something maddening about not being sure you'll get your guy when you have a problem that needs fixing. I'm ok now. I'm out of the cellar. I'm up to 10th and hopefully rising (despite J. Upton FAIL and Ellsbury injury). And I'm getting some feel for FAAB. Live and learn and I guess for all my experience I'm still a rookie after all.

[Raskol]

Unfortunately for some, injuries occur during the playoffs and Ryan Howard was taken in the second round.
If any other questions about the draft, just ask, I'll be glad to answer.....

I have a question.....why in hell did I draft Ellsbury, Howard, Crawford and Dan Hudson?!?

[DOUGHBOYS]

It was those Pranking Padres.
Jealous that nobody thinks of them in a fantasy way, they've become pranksters.
They knew those players would get hurt and rearranged your draft list so that you would get stuck with all of them.
Yesterday, they put icy/hot in Strasburg's jock.....
Then rubberized Lawrie's helmet.....
They put a picture of Cole Hamels on a wall to make Bryce Harper swing a bat at it....
They put flubber in Pujols bat....

They're Padres, but they are really some Madre-------s!

[Edwards Kings]

I LOVE this blurb on Strasburg. From RotoWorld:

Stephen Strasburg was bothered by stray Hot Stuff in his groin during Tuesday's loss to the Padres. Hot Stuff is an analgesic ointment like Icy-Hot that is often used as a muscle-loosener. But it can cause quite a bit of pain when applied to ... more sensitive skin. "I can’t really tell you what the problem was, but some Hot Stuff got misplaced," manager Davey Johnson said. "It was on his shoulder and evidently – I don’t know how it got to where it got, but it was uncomfortable, to say the least." Strasburg allowed four runs in four innings.

Addition to the warm-up routine notes for Strasburg:

15. Apply Icy-Hot to necessary areas.
16. Wash hands thoroughly with soap and hot water.
17. Obtain fresh, clean towel and dry hands completely.
18. Then and only then...scratch balls.
19. Repeat steps 16 & 17 (not optional).