'IT'S JUST 3 MEASLY OUTS!!!'

[DOUGHBOYS]

On April 23, RotoWorld and Brandon Belt owners got what they've wished for. Aubrey Huff out of the lineup. RotoWorld has long trumpeted Belt's abilities over Huff, even though Huff has done little with past chances.
Belt is RotoWorld's proverbial backup quarterback.
Since April 23, Belt has had many starts, but could only muster 10 hits and the empty fantasy line of .256/1/0/3/0.
Now that Huff is back, RotoWorld can go back to it's cheerleading mode, not mentioning that Belt has once again failed given a lot of playing time.
RotoWorld goes strangely quiet when Belt does get playing time...
Expect more of their cheerleading ways once he hits the bench....again.

Lost in all the injuries this year, are the players still standing.
David Freese is one of the few 3b not to go down. So is Alex Rodriguez.
Carlos Beltran is having a Matt Kemp type of start.
Josh Hamilton hit four homers and has been the pillar of health.
JJ Putz is healthy, Rivera is not.
Joe Mauer is still catching.
Jake Peavy is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Maybe this is the year that the 'injury prone' have the last laugh.
If anything proves this is a topsy turvy year.......

Save Leaders in the American League-

Chris Perez-11
Fernando Rodney- 9
Brandon League- 8
Jimmy Johnson- 8
Joe Nathan- 7

Raise your hand if any of these 'ace' closers were in your top 10.
Will the Closer entertainment of this year change the way we draft next year?
Probably not.
It is the last category most of us think about on Draft Day, yet the only category that constantly warrants triple digit bids on faab.
A little ironic in that we cheat saves on Draft Day, yet coffers are emptied in chasing them afterwards.
A true test will come this week.
Janssen and Thayer have lousy peripherals and each will most likely only keep the jobs a few weeks at best.
Still, they have the job....I think.
How much would we pay per save? $25? $40?
We bid thinking that, 'IT'S 3 OUTS! WHO CAN'T GET THREE OUTS? '
Cordero, Cashner, Sale, Thornton, Santiago, Lidge, Bell, Cishek, Walden, and Marmol to name a few....

Until the recent demotion of Carlos Marmol, the National League Central was the last division in baseball not to be affected by the dreaded Closer Turnover. Even so, Ryan Madson was lost to Cincy during spring training...

St Louis- Motte
Milwaukee- Axford
Houston- Myers
Pittsburgh- Hanrahan
Cincinnati- Marshall
Chicago- Marmol

Although Cubs fans only saw the present and were relieved to see Marmol removed from the role. The best thing that can happen for the Cubs is a one month resurgence so that he can be shipped to a team that has a need for an experienced closer......Even though 'experienced closers' have been as bad as the new closers.

What about the Closers that are still standing...or wobbling....
Valverde, Putz, Balfour, Marshall, Francisco, Axford, Hanrahan, HRodriguez, are all only one or two bad performances from losing jobs themselves. Any time they enter a game, a mass finger crossing follows.

12 Closers in baseball have at least seven saves.
Taking that into account, with an ERA under 3.00 and WHIP around 1.0....

Here are your 'Dominant Closers'

Fernando Rodney- 9 saves, 0.77 ERA, 0.57 WHIP
Brett Myers- 8 saves, 0.84 ERA, 0.64 WHIP
Jim Johnson- 8 saves, 0.00 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
Brandon League- 8 saves, 2,25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Jonathon Papelbon- 9 saves, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Jonathon Broxton- 7 saves, 1.54 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

[ToddZ]

To be fair, since relieving full time, Janssen's peripherals are and have historically been quite good.

K/9 - 9.5 (last 2 years, 8.6, 8.3)
BB/9 - 0.8 (last 2 years, 2.3, 2.8)

He sits around 91 mph so he is not thought of as "dominant" in the announcer-speak connotation.

But a K-rate over 8 puts him at minimum, near dominant in a fantasy sense.

[DOUGHBOYS]

That is very fair. If just looking at that, he seems like a plausible closer.

Janssen in the last 2+ years has given up 48 earned runs.
31 of those 48 earned runs came in just 12 appearances.
And most of those appearances were under lower pressure situations...
If looking for consistency in a Closer....Well, never mind...
The Closer position itself is a model of inconsistency, so what the Hell am I talking about?!
Carry on...

[ToddZ]

All I was pointing out was his peripherals.

Now, for MOST players, we don't care when they get their stats, a 2.50 ERA in a "non-pressure" situation counts as much as a 2.50 ERA in a so-called pressure situation.

That said, closers are different as the currency is saves and it is fair to question whether Jannsen can handle the 9th inning.

These may appear to be contradictory, but my anecdotal contention on the whole GUILE aspect of closing (or friend Ron Shandler talks about TOG, Talent, Opportunity, Guile) is that a whole bunch of "can't handle the pressure" closers were just victims of a poorly timed sample size blip and they happened to have a random rough outing right out of the gate.

That said, I also believe that part of the trick of closing is the ability to harness the adrenaline rush that one must feel in these pressure situations, either by not being influenced at all (Mo Rivera?) or being able to channel it into slightly elevated skills, while keeping it in control (just about everyone else).

I also contend that this is why some closers struggle in non-save situations, they do not get the same adrenaline rush, leading to better skills.

[DOUGHBOYS]

It also calls attention to the statistic itself.
Managers and closers know that in a 6-2 game, the closer does not receive a Save.
Do they feel just as secure going into the bottom of the ninth with a 5-2 lead?
Yes, they do.
But, it is then that the stat comes into play and the decision becomes automatic to call in his closer.

Last night, Kyle Lohse pulled a hamstring running bases in the fifth inning. He came out to pitch the fifth inning, then retired for the evening. The Win was at stake for Lohse. Would he have come out if it were any other inning?
We don't know for sure. But, we have an inkling.

Fantasy baseball folks make no bones about being stat dependent. Most Major League personnel deny it.
But, those stats loom large in the decisions that Managers and players make.

Using a closer in a non-save situation is in some realm, on the same level as a player who has signed a huge contract.
There is no adrenaline. There is no carrot under the nose.
A player may be even guilty of thinking, 'Why should I?'
The money is in the bank. There is no Save to be had.
And the minute that 'Why should I' enters the mind.....failure follows close behind.

[ToddZ]

This is why, if I were a manager/GM, I would PAY for the tickets so every ballplayer have their parents, their SO and their high school/college buddies in the stands.

It was a rather cheesy HBO movie from the early 90's, Joe Mantegna played an American trying to revive his coaching career by leading the Russian team into the Olympics. During an exhibition game, he had all their Mom's stand up while the player was at bat, and of course since it was a movie, they all got a hit

[DOUGHBOYS]

'Hi, Mrs Janssen?
You don't know me, but my name is Todd Zola.
Look, I bid $100 on your son with my faab this past week and I have a proposition for you.

What's that? Oh, don't worry about faab, it's a fantasy baseball term.

Anyway, I'd like to pay for your airfare to Toronto with my frequent flier miles. Once there I strongly urge you to see your son pitch every night during that long home stand.
You'd be doing me AND your boy a big favor.

You will?
Oh, thank you, Mrs Janssen. You've made us both very happy!
Good bye.


There are Janssen peripherals.....And there are Zola peripherals!

[ToddZ]

Whatever it takes, nothing else seems to be working for me this season.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Whatever it takes, nothing else seems to be working for me this season.

Buck up, Todd, it's just a season.
Some have more rhyme, than reason.