13 In, two Outs

[DOUGHBOYS]

I got a note from an NFBC friend suggesting that I write a piece in which two players I would not draft per round in the first 10 rounds.
Whenever I write stuff like this, it seems to piss off some drafter who is high on the players I mentioned.
So yeah, I'll do it

This will be a 10-part series. These stupid Message Boards won't let me write extremely long posts (maybe they're not so stupid, just saving you from me)
Alright, I'm going to list the players by ADP for each round and give you my 'avoidances'. This does not necessarily mean I won't draft these players. It just means that I would not draft them at this price.
The ADP is from February 1 to date of post.

10th round-

136 J.A. Happ
137 Andrew McCutchen
138 Ender Inciarte
139 Masahiro Tanaka
140 Yadier Molina
141 Ken Giles
142 Ian Desmond
143 Buster Posey
144 Amed Rosario
145 Carlos Martinez
146 Corey Knebel
147 Rafael Devers
148 Mike Moustakas
149 Yu Darvish
150 Nick Pivetta

It'd be too easy to list Carlos Martinez, though I would have listed him without the recent injury reports. I haven't drafted Martinez since his first successful year. Since then, he has become more of a cheerleader than pitcher.
In my mind, if something doesn't come easy for Martinez, he fails.
Lately, getting on the mound and pitching has been considered tough for him.
BMW arm, KIA head.
But, that's a freebie...

We have to trust our draft picks. Beyond numbers (no matter what numbers we use) and beyond our guts (mine's bigger than yours), the number one thing in our minds when making a draft pick is T-R-U-S-T.
I simply do not trust Yu Darvish.
I do not trust him to pitch consistently well and I don't trust him to pitch a lot of games.
Without that trust, I would not take Darvish in the 10th round.
To tell the truth, I wouldn't (and haven't) taken him in the 11th or 12th round. Not even a thought.
If not thinking about a player well beyond his ADP, you don't want or trust that player at all.
I simply do not trust Darvish as far as Eddie Gaedel could throw him.

Masahiro Tanaka is different. I trust him a bit. The numbers, however, are telling me to not trust him at all.
He is on the wrong side of 30 now.
His innings over the last three seasons have gone from 199 to 178 to 156. Almost a perfect drop of 22 innings per season over the last few seasons.
Tanaka would have to pitch really well to justify 134 innings fron a 10th round selection.
He throws for a great team and at times, looks dominant.
And I wished I owned him when having those nights.
But, they're rarer now.
Betts, Benintendi, and Martinez hit .345 off Tanaka, each with multiple homers against him.
An easy bench every time the Yanks play the Red Sox.
Your 10th round pitcher should hardly ever be an 'easy bench'.
We want more. Tanaka offers less.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Continuing the series.....

NINTH ROUND

121 Jose Leclerc
122 Robinson Cano
123 Wade Davis
124 Kirby Yates
125 Kyle Hendricks
126 Yasmani Grandal
127 Edwin Encarnacion
128 Wilson Ramos
129 Rougned Odor
130 Robbie Ray
131 Tim Anderson
132 Willson Contreras
133 Chris Archer
134 David Peralta
135 Brian Dozier


I try not to draft players that drive me crazy. I may be on an island in this thinking, but I'll bypass Joey Votto (even in the 7th round) because of his walks and I'll bypass other players who drive me crazy in their own way.
Wade Davis and most any Closer in Colorado drives me wacko. Davis was suitable. Probably the best way I can describe him.
He got Saves for his owners.
And that's nice.
BUT....let's face it, the only reason he is drafted in the ninth round is because that is when other Closers start getting taken and drafters fearing a 'run' feel they can't get 'shut out' so they draft Davis.
Illustrating the 'driving me crazy', Davis had a June with an ERA of 9.31, in August, 7.71
Greg Holland had one month like those and was replaced by Davis through free agency.
And did I mention his velocity dropped a bit?
Did I mention he'll drive you crazy?
Yes, if drafting Davis in the ninth round,,,fail.

Quick, name another hitter on the Diamonbacks last year besides Goldy, Pollock, and David Peralta.....
Admit it, you struggled.
The Diamondback offense has been gutted.
Peralta will be the best hitter on a bad team. When this happens, it's usually not good. Ask Eric Hosmer who has been 'that guy' a lot.
His running has all but disappeared. His RBI and Runs opportunities will be fewer.
Peralta had a career year last year. Sometimes, we fall into the trap of rewarding a career year with an upward arrow in the ADP.
Along with having no help from a lineup that, at best, includes Jake Lamb (career year guy), Eduardo Escobar, and Steven Souza Jr (career year guy), Peralta will be turning 32 years of age this year.
At 31, he nearly doubled his career totals in home runs. That sounds good for the accomplishment. But similar to standing in the same place and expecting another lightning strike.
Peralta really is a ground ball and line drive hitter. Not a home run hitter. He never hit more than 17 before last year.
The homers just happened to come. Call it launch angle. Call it skill. Call it luck. Just don't call on me to draft him in the ninth round.
Sequels hardly ever match the originals.
I expect this sequel to be a dud.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Continuing the series....

ROUND 8

106 Dee Gordon
107 Sean Doolittle
108 Matt Olson
109 Salvador Perez
110 Matt Chapman
111 Max Muncy
112 A.J. Pollock
113 Luis Castillo
114 Raisel Iglesias
115 Michael Brantley
116 Eloy Jimenez
117 Josh Hader
118 Aaron Hicks
119 Jose Leclerc
120 Charlie Morton

I drafted Charlie Morton everywhere last year. He helped to cash me in several leagues. A monster.
Now, he has moved up a lot of rounds. And I am no longer interested.
Like the Astros, I have moved on from Morton. He served his purpose. Was brilliant over a short period of time.
Gained velocity at an advanced age.
I don't expect the good fortune to keep shining on him and sure as heck not gonna pay more for a product that will, in most likelihood, provide less.

I love some rookies. I'll take Vladdy at the right price. There are a couple of pitchers entering the Majors that I really like selecting late in drafts.
Then, there are some rookies that I'll leave alone.
I left Acuna alone last year and it hurt me.
I also left Eloy Jimenez alone in FAAB last year and it helped me.
It seemed that my closest competitors in my FAAB leagues all bid a lot to get Jimenez, in case he was called up.
Thankfully, for me, he wasn't.
Jimenez is all that. A great natural hitter.
BUT, there are two things working against him.
One is that he has never played a full year of ball.
He tops out at 112 games played in the minors. He is good at getting hurt. An anti-skill we like to ignore, but it's there.
Good fantasy players look at the bad and the good...or great as Jimenez really can hit.
Two is probably just me.
Some teams are born under an unlucky star. That's the White Sox lately.
They were said to have just wonderful kids coming up.
Moncada, Giolito, Kopech, now Jimenez.
These kids have, thus far, NOT panned out.
Maybe they will in the future, I don't know.
But, it is just some form of team bias that won't allow me to draft a White Sox rookie. At least at this expensive price. Pass.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Continuing the series....

ROUND 7

91 Mitch Haniger
92 Felipe Vazquez
93 Travis Shaw
94 Justin Upton
95 Nelson Cruz
96 Jose Peraza
97 Miles Mikolas
98 Joey Gallo
99 David Price
100 Josh Donaldson
101 Mallex Smith
102 Victor Robles
103 Michael Conforto
104 Justin Turner
105 Wil Myers

Let me give you a stat about a seventh round player that should scare the bejeezus from you drafting him...
Over 10 years of his career, this player has averaged 93 games played per year.
He has had over 500 at bats once in his career.
Over 400 at bats, three times.
He is 35 years old this year.
He has never hit 30 home runs.
He has never stolen 10 bases.
He has never driven in or scored over 90 runs.
In fact, this is his roto line for the last two years....318/67/17/61/4
Besides the batting average, do those numbers scream seventh round draft choice to you?
At age 35, I don't expect things to turn out better. I'm clearly in the minority here as I believe he is completely misplaced in ADP.
(He wears the beard to hide his age, y'know)
It looks like I will not have one team with Justin Turner on it this year.

David Price.
I have never liked David Price. Never.
Do you have one of those players that you just never liked?
David Price is that player for me.
Every time he speaks in front of a microphone, I find him disingenuous and arrogant.
He's a courageous whiner.
Telling us how tough he is on one hand, while belittling the obstacle that he has to be tough about with the other.
From a fantasy perspective, my bias against Price has always made me feel he was overpriced.
It's probably the bias talking, but no matter.
The Dennis Eckersley thing put it over the top for me.
I won't have him on my team.
I would have Joey Votto on my team first.
At least in my heart, I know that Votto is a good dude. He'll drive me crazy in a fantasy way, but I know he's a good dude and I can root for him.
I could tell you that I won't draft Price because of his blow-ups or injury history, but that would be disingenuous on my part.
The truth being that Price is just never a thought during a draft of mine. A total disregard.
A lot of folks ask me, Which baseball team is your favorite?"
I always have the same response.
"My fantasy team."
I root for every player on each of my fantasy teams.
I can't root for David Price.

For all you fantasy 'experts' that have told us through the years to not let outside influences, influence draft picks.
SCREW YOU!
Part of the fun in having a fantasy team is to share the joy with the players as they succeed.
It is ok to overdraft your favorite player and not draft a player, disliked.....just don't do it often : )

[DOUGHBOYS]

Continuing the series....

ROUND 6


76 Miguel Andujar
77 Jonathan Villar
78 Jesus Aguilar
79 Madison Bumgarner
80 Aroldis Chapman
81 German Marquez
82 Brad Hand
83 Corey Seager
84 Jose Abreu
85 Eddie Rosario
86 Mike Foltynewicz
87 Scooter Gennett
88 Roberto Osuna
89 Nicholas Castellanos
90 Zack Wheeler

As Fantasy Baseball people, there are two qualities that we like in a hitter )power and speed) and it's the same for a pitcher.
Swing and miss.
We can't really control the other four categories, so we like our strike out pitchers.
Last year, it was inconceivable that Luis Castillo was being drafted as high as he was. Bad ball park, bad team, what were drafters thinking?
They were thinking with their manhood, not with their brain.
There is a certain muchismo when we draft our pitchers.
We'll bellow out a name like MAX SCHERZER, we'll almost whisper the name, Miles Mikolas.
It is why German Marquez is taken so highly this year. He proved he can strike out over 200 people. (Can we get a Tim the Tool man grunt?)
Marquez may be the first Starter drafted in the sixth round that has an ERA of almost 5 in his home ball park.
We try to forget that he pitches in the worst pitchers park in the Major League history.
His drafters will remember in-season.
A sixth round draft pick should be a pitcher that we are proud to pitch any time.
As with Castillo last year, Marquez owners will clench their butt cheeks each time Marquez throws in his home ball park.

This next player is easy for me. I haven't drafted him for years.
He is so sexy, that drafters have been over drafting him for years.
Again, it is about muchismo.
Who doesn't like seeing 105 MPH fastballs?
Aroldis Chapman leaves us wondering how Major League hitters can hit a ball thrown so hard.
We reward that by drafting Chapman high in drafts.
Since he came to the Major Leagues, we've always drafted him in the first six rounds.
Why?
Muchismo and sexiness.
Sure, Chapman strike out more batters than most Fireman and puts up good numbers too.
But get this....
Since Chapman entered Major League baseball in 2010, 51 times there have been Closers with 40 or more Saves.
None for Aroldis Chapman.
Chapman has finished in the top five of pitchers getting Saves....ZERO TIMES!
Zero.
We think of him as a top Closer.
We all do.
BUT, something happens every season that keeps him from getting a lot of Saves.
And Saves is what we craves when drafting a Closer.
Whether it's an injury or a wildness hiccup or something else, Chapman is not a horse that gallops from start to finish.
More alarmingly, and due to these hiccups, Chapman is throwing less innings.
2012- 71
2015- 66
2016- 58
2018- 51
Not only does that mean less Saves, it means less strike outs.
That hits drafters where it hurts most.
Six Closers have had 100 k's or more over the last two years.
Aroldis Chapman is not one of them.
Annually, drafters have made Chapman their guy when drafting a Closer.
Then, they were getting less Saves. Now less Saves and less strike outs.
Muchismo comes at a great cost.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Continuing the Series.....

ROUND 5

61 Mike Clevinger
62 George Springer
63 Gleyber Torres
64 Zack Greinke
65 Lorenzo Cain
66 Joey Votto
67 Jack Flaherty
68 Daniel Murphy
69 Matt Carpenter
70 David Dahl
71 Yasiel Puig
72 Jose Berrios
73 Kenley Jansen
74 Marcell Ozuna
75 Miguel Andujar

A note- No, it is not gonna be Joey Votto. Although I've railed about Votto being mis priced in the past, he is more appropriately priced this year. Not enough for me, but I can understand others taking him this year.

The Summer of 2012 was very special for our community. Our City Council (led by my brother, who was Mayor at the time) lured a minor league baseball team to play in our town. The Rookie Rockies were standouts and would make the playoffs in their first year.
For me, the Summer started turning a little Hellish.
David Dahl, the Rookie Rockies top draft pick lived up to his hype. His batting average, right around the .400 area. As Scorekeeper, almost everybody in the City reminded me that Dahl hitting .400 would be quite an achievement. I received their message outwardly, while inwardly thinking that I would score keep fairly. I also knew that hitting .400 in rookie ball while wonderful, was not earth shattering baseball news. At least not as much as the locals built it up to be.
Dahl would falter at the end of the year and finish with 'only' a .379 batting average.
I loved that Summer. There were two players in the league that year that had 'Major Leagues' written all over them.
Dahl and Corey Seager.
Dahl is a great hitter. A great athlete. Even had a great Walk up song in 'Sweet Home Alabama'.
BUT, Dahl is made of glass.
He even missed a few games playing at the rookie level and has missed games at each step since.
I love the kid. He oozes talent. If guaranteed he would play every game short of some rest, I would draft Dahl in the second round.
I would.
But he doesn't come with a guarantee.
He comes with an injury history that makes even a fifth round choice, a drastic reach.
Dahl has only played even 100 games in a season once.
Once.
Dahl has played seven seasons of pro ball.
He has averaged how many games played with the parent Rockies last year, 77. Not even half a season.
With young players like Dahl, I let him prove that he can play a full season before risking a fifth round choice on him.
The talent is through the roof. The Injury risk, through the roof. Your decision.

I'm on an island on this one. I know that. But here goes.
Flat out, I don't think Yasiel Puig is a very good baseball player.
What he is, is a wonderful athlete.
Wonderful athletes don't always make the best of baseball players.
Many coaches drooled at the thought of helping Puig become better.
I really haven't seen the improvement.
And because he is playing in a new place and in a City he has embraced, and in a contract year, I don't think any of it matters much.
Puig is going to be Puig.
What Puig DOES have going for him, is that he is a better fantasy baseball player than real player.
Even at that, is he THAT good?
Here are his roto stats over his six years of play. (Yes, he has been in the Majors SIX years!)
.279/61/18/56/10
Those are not fifth round numbers. And now, he is going higher than ever before.
The price of his move to Cincinnati is already priced in.
It is too high of a price.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Continuing the Series....

ROUND 4

46 Clayton Kershaw
47 J.T. Realmuto
48 Xander Bogaerts
49 Patrick Corbin
50 Edwin Diaz
51 Carlos Correa
52 Eugenio Suarez
53 Gary Sanchez
54 James Paxton
55 Jameson Taillon
56 Ozzie Albies
57 Tommy Pham
58 Stephen Strasburg
59 Blake Treinen
60 Jean Segura


I won my Main Event league last year and Ozzie Albies was a large reason why.
Albies had an outstanding first half of the year. Led baseball in Runs. Seemed as if he was on base or rounding the bases with a home run in just about every game.
The second half of the season, he became a flailer. A flailer is a hitter that swings and hopes. Like Chris Davis or Yoan Moncada.
There could be several reasons why Albies became a flailer. It could be over confidence that he could hit anything, or it could be that pitchers caught up with him. I don't care.
All I know is that the fourth round is too high of a price to find out why.
Albies is going to be a really good hitter. I just have reservations that it'll be this year.
He is a prime candidate for a sophomore slump year.

I remember getting a note from Bryan Vogel during Stephen Strasburg's rookie year that Strasburg would be the first pitcher to be drafted as the number one pick in the NFBC.
He had good reason for the prediction. Strasburg was throwing easy 100 MPH gas and made professional hitters look silly.
There is just one test that we can never measure rookies by.....Time.
In time, Strasburg has become a pampered pitcher. He was benched when WAS made the playoffs in fear of putting too many innings on his precious arm.
Since then, Strasburg has taken the lead in pampering himself.
Oh, he still has great stuff. The stuff of a Max Scherzer, the fluff of a Kardasian.
Strasburg hasn't had 30 Starts in five years.
The fourth round is not a large enough penalty for his inconsistency.
And now, we do have to worry about his stuff a bit because his ERA and WHIP were the highest of his career last year.
He is on the wrong side of 30 as well.
So much to worry about.
Unless we just avoid.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Continuing the Series....

ROUND 3

31 Kris Bryant
32 Juan Soto
33 Trevor Bauer
34 Luis Severino
35 Anthony Rizzo
36 Carlos Carrasco
37 Starling Marte
38 Walker Buehler
39 Rhys Hoskins
40 Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
41 Adalberto Mondesi
42 Noah Syndergaard
43 Anthony Rendon
44 Khris Davis
45 Cody Bellinger

This one is a tough round. Truth be told, I would draft all these players (but one), but there are two players here that are over priced in the third round.
Khris Davis will hit .247 this coming year.
I say that because Davis has hit .247 four years in a row.
He needs to hit .247 one more year, so that his lifetime batting average of .248 will change to .247 as well after next year.
Funny fact....Five years ago, writers would belittle Davis for his .247 batting average.
Now, the average batting average for Major League Baseball?......248!
For fantasy, Davis is an ok option in the third round.
I won't take him there, but you can and be secure with his normal stats.
I won't because I abhor the idea of having a U player weigh me down so early in a draft.
I made an exception for David Ortiz because he was more of a monster than Davis.
Davis also possesses skills readily available in later rounds.
He is a bit of a Medusa for drafters. The homers are enticing. Even bankable. Just like his average.
But if I put this item back on the shelf, I can find one more cheaply priced and more maneuverable in my lineup later.

There are a lot of sexy picks this round...Soto, Guerrero, Mondesi, Buehler, Syndergaard, etc.
Take them if you like them.
There is one name in the third round here that I cannot draft.
Anthony Rendon.
There are two people in the NFBC that know exactly why I can't select Rendon.
They're probably chuckling while reading this.
I am not going to tell the story here.
Let's just say that I've gotten to know about Rendon's...eh...character... first hand and he has become one of those players that I cannot root for.
Fantasy baseball-wise, he is very worthy of being a third rounder.
For me, it is just a case of knowing too much about the guy. And they're not the right things.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Continuing the Series....

ROUND 2


16 Aaron Judge
17 Manny Machado
18 Trevor Story
19 Paul Goldschmidt
20 Bryce Harper
21 Freddie Freeman
22 Justin Verlander
23 Giancarlo Stanton
24 Corey Kluber
25 Aaron Nola
26 Gerrit Cole
27 Charlie Blackmon
28 Andrew Benintendi
29 Whit Merrifield
30 Blake Snell

This is the best second round we've had in years. We have two superstars (at least that's what everybody calls them because they make a lot of money...But if true Superstars, why aren't they in the first round?) in Machado and Harper.
The leading base stealer from last year. The two best 1B in Goldy and Freeman.
The Cy Young pitcher forom last year in Snell, the previous one in Kluber, and another previous one in Verlander.
The second round is stacked.
I have drafted over 20 teams and have selected most of these players.
In fact, I have selected 14 of 15 of these players in various drafts. Admittedly, some were drafted in the third round.

So, I'll start with the one player I have not drafted.
Corey Kluber.
I drafted Kluber a lot last year. I felt that he was ok, but did not deliver the punch I was looking for from a number one pitcher.
Now, I feel the market did not punish him enough for having a Klublah year.
I would draft any of the pitchers listed ahead of him and maybe a couple more, in later rounds.
I believe we have seen the best of Kluber.
Plus, Cleveland was Kluber's worst enemy during the Hot Stove League.
They lost key components of their bullpen and their lineup looks shabby.
Kluber will leave games, where he pitched well enough to Win, but won't receive the W.

I have an NFBC friend who absolutely LOVES Blake Snell.
And I don't blame him. Snell was wonderful last year. Masterful even.
I've drafted him this year, but it was only when he fell to the third round.
I want my second rounder to be good enough to be a first rounder the following year.
Snell does not have that smell of first round about him.
He's a darned good pitcher. He could prove me wrong.
But I think it is more likely that he is drafted in the third round next year, not the first or second.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Concluding the Series....

ROUND 1

1 Mike Trout
2 Mookie Betts
3 Jose Ramirez
4 Max Scherzer
5 J.D. Martinez
6 Christian Yelich
7 Nolan Arenado
8 Ronald Acuna
9 Trea Turner
10 Jacob deGrom
11 Jose Altuve
12 Alex Bregman
13 Chris Sale
14 Javier Baez
15 Francisco Lindor

Quietly, Chris Sale did something last year that no other pitcher in baseball has done. For the sixth straight year, he finished in the top five in voting for the Cy Young award without winning. Sale has been a monster fantasy player. In fantasy, he is like the voting for the Cy Young, we never give him his due as the top pitcher, but pitches like one every year.
I have drafted Sale liberally over those years. I didn't care that the naysayers said his delivery would end up with injury. All I knew is that Sale made hitters look futile.
I believe both streaks end this year. Both his top five Cy Young top five's and me selecting him in drafts.
The signs are there.
Sale broke last year.
Before pitching some shorter stint appearances in the playoff run for the Red Sox, he threw just five August innings.
Only 12 in September.
In Sale's last 11 Starts in 2018, his ERA was a ghastly (for him), 4.09
He went on the dl twice for shoulder and elbow problems.
In fantasy, we have to know when to say goodbye to a good thing.
So, I'll say goodbye to the Stork. I don't think he'll be delivering this year.

This is a freebie....
I don't think Trea Turner belongs in the first round. If you've read my Stiff, you already know that.
I just wanted to let you know that I haven't forgotten him

What can you say about a roto line of .270/110/39/105/34 ?
It's awesome.
Totally, first round worthy.
Only....it should have been even better.
You see, that batting average was well over .300, then Jose Ramirez hit only .245 in August and followed that up with a .174 in September.
He was even worse in the playoffs for Cleveland going 0-11 in his at bats.
Something is wrong in Cleveland.
Their front office, seemingly, wants to tank the year, even though they are favorites to win their division.
Francisco Lindor is hurt and the front office is bringing in no help for a dismal looking lineup.
Would it kill them to sign Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez for a million each and make the lineup look decent while letting their players know, they're trying to win?
Anyway....
Ramirez drew 106 walks last year.
He drew more walks in August and September when sucking, then he did in April and May when clobbering the ball.
I believe that he will not see as many great pitches to hit this year, as he did last year.
With no protection in the lineup (Goodbye Edwin) (Hello...Nobody), pitchers can be a lot more careful with him this year.
Ramirez deserves to be a first rounder for the numbers he put up last year. He does.
But as fantasy players, we don't get last years stats. We get this year's.
And I don't think that Ramirez puts up first round stats again this year.

Thanks for the listen. A few of you have emailed me in disagreeing with me.
Good!
If we all agreed, we wouldn't have this hobby of ours!

[blazer68]

well thought out and interesting as usual boss

[DOUGHBOYS]

Thanks Kenny. Much appreciated!