There has been some remarkable consistency in the first two rounds of the first three mock drafts. I do not know if that is actually a consensus or it means too many of the same participants are in each mock draft, but 27 of the first 30 players taken are the same in each of the three drafts. Three other players were picked twice and three picked once. All six of these players were picked after the 2.10 draft spot.
As the magazines start hitting the mailboxes and magazine racks or your favorite on-line services start putting their early 2008 rankings up, it might be interesting to see how this Top 27 compares to their Top 25.
In average pick order, the first three mocks “consensus” Top 27 are:
1 Ramirez H
1 Rodriguez A
3 Reyes J
4 Pujols A
5 Wright D
6 Rollins J
7 Holliday M
8 Utley C
9 Soriano A
10 Howard R
10 Santana J
12 Crawford C
12 Sizemore G
14 Braun R
15 Cabrera M
16 Fielder P
17 Beltran C
18 Ortiz D
19 Phillips B
20 Peavy J
21 Upton BJ
22 Lee C
22 Teixeira M
24 Guerrero V
25 Berkman L
26 Suzuki I
27 Rios A
Just for fun.
First Three NFBC Mock Drafts
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Edwards Kings
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First Three NFBC Mock Drafts
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
First Three NFBC Mock Drafts
Nice job Wayne. Maybe there will be some adjustments by draft day, useful info though.
First Three NFBC Mock Drafts
Santana's stock may rise somewhat if they move him to the Yankees.
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Joe Sambito
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First Three NFBC Mock Drafts
or even more if he goes to the Sox. 
"Everyone is born right-handed, only the greatest overcome it."
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Edwards Kings
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First Three NFBC Mock Drafts
Assuming he makes not big splash in spring training this year, I expect Braun to slip to the second round. Likewise it wouldn't suprise me if Phillips moved up.
After the fourth round of the Third Mock is done, I will update for the next two rounds "consensus".
After the fourth round of the Third Mock is done, I will update for the next two rounds "consensus".
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
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Gordon Gekko
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First Three NFBC Mock Drafts
santana's adp will be 1.4 or 1.5 if he goes to the yanks or sox. braun will be a first rounder, esay
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Edwards Kings
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First Three NFBC Mock Drafts
Through the Fourth Round of the first three NFBC Mock Drafts, there was still a great deal of consistency. Of the first 60 picks in all three drafts, 53 players were taken in all three. Eight were taken twice and the range of picks for those eight were as early as 41 and as late as 59.
In addition, six players were only chosen once in the first four rounds of the first three mock drafts. The range there, as expected, was pick 52 to pick 60 with four of them picked either 58, 59, or 60.
So, the "consensus" Top 53 are:
1 Ramirez (SS)
1 Rodriguez (3B)
3 Reyes
4 Pujols
5 Wright
6 Rollins
7 Holliday
8 Utley
9 Soriano
10 Braun
11 Santana
11 Howard
13 Sizemore
13 Crawford
15 Cabrera
16 Fielder
17 Beltran
18 Rios
19 Ortiz
20 Phillips
21 Peavy
22 Upton
23 Lee (OF)
23 Teixeira
25 Guerrero
26 Berkman
27 Suzuki
28 Martin
28 Martinez
30 Granderson
30 Atkins
32 Lee (1B)
33 Roberts
34 Ramirez (OF)
35 Byrnes
36 Abreu
37 Markakis
37 Ordonez
39 Morneau
39 Hafner
41 Tulowitzki
42 Figgins
43 Jeter
44 Ramirez (3B)
45 Hart
46 Pena
47 Papelbon
48 Pierre
49 Mauer
50 Putz
51 Bedard
52 Hunter
53 Rodriguez (CL)
So, the consistency of Rounds 3 and 4 (26 out of 30) is nearly that of Rounds 1 and 2 (27 out of 30). It will be interesting to see when in this very small sample when different strategies begin to erode the consistency.
In addition, six players were only chosen once in the first four rounds of the first three mock drafts. The range there, as expected, was pick 52 to pick 60 with four of them picked either 58, 59, or 60.
So, the "consensus" Top 53 are:
1 Ramirez (SS)
1 Rodriguez (3B)
3 Reyes
4 Pujols
5 Wright
6 Rollins
7 Holliday
8 Utley
9 Soriano
10 Braun
11 Santana
11 Howard
13 Sizemore
13 Crawford
15 Cabrera
16 Fielder
17 Beltran
18 Rios
19 Ortiz
20 Phillips
21 Peavy
22 Upton
23 Lee (OF)
23 Teixeira
25 Guerrero
26 Berkman
27 Suzuki
28 Martin
28 Martinez
30 Granderson
30 Atkins
32 Lee (1B)
33 Roberts
34 Ramirez (OF)
35 Byrnes
36 Abreu
37 Markakis
37 Ordonez
39 Morneau
39 Hafner
41 Tulowitzki
42 Figgins
43 Jeter
44 Ramirez (3B)
45 Hart
46 Pena
47 Papelbon
48 Pierre
49 Mauer
50 Putz
51 Bedard
52 Hunter
53 Rodriguez (CL)
So, the consistency of Rounds 3 and 4 (26 out of 30) is nearly that of Rounds 1 and 2 (27 out of 30). It will be interesting to see when in this very small sample when different strategies begin to erode the consistency.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
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Edwards Kings
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First Three NFBC Mock Drafts
Oops!
[ December 12, 2007, 07:54 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
[ December 12, 2007, 07:54 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
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Edwards Kings
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First Three NFBC Mock Drafts
Found a formula error. Here is the corrected list with average draft pick as consolation!
1 Rodriguez (3B) 1.67
1 Ramirez (SS) 1.67
3 Reyes 3.33
4 Pujols 4.33
5 Wright 5.00
6 Rollins 5.33
7 Holliday 7.67
8 Utley 9.00
9 Soriano 9.33
10 Braun 10.00
11 Howard 11.67
11 Santana 11.67
13 Sizemore 12.67
13 Crawford 12.67
15 Cabrera 14.67
16 Fielder 16.33
17 Beltran 17.00
18 Ortiz 18.33
19 Phillips 18.67
20 Peavy 20.33
21 Upton 22.33
22 Lee (OF) 23.00
22 Teixeira 23.00
24 Guerrero 23.33
25 Berkman 24.00
26 Suzuki 25.67
27 Rios 26.67
28 Martin 30.67
28 Martinez 30.67
30 Granderson 32.00
30 Atkins 32.00
32 Lee (1B) 32.33
33 Roberts 33.33
34 Ramirez (OF) 34.33
35 Byrnes 34.67
36 Abreu 37.00
37 Ordonez 37.67
37 Markakis 37.67
39 Morneau 40.00
39 Hafner 40.00
41 Tulowitzki 40.33
42 Figgins 42.67
43 Jeter 43.33
44 Ramirez (3B) 45.00
45 Hart 47.00
46 Pena 48.00
47 Papelbon 49.00
48 Pierre 49.67
49 Mauer 50.00
50 Putz 52.00
51 Bedard 53.67
52 Hunter 54.00
53 Rodriguez (CL) 55.67
1 Rodriguez (3B) 1.67
1 Ramirez (SS) 1.67
3 Reyes 3.33
4 Pujols 4.33
5 Wright 5.00
6 Rollins 5.33
7 Holliday 7.67
8 Utley 9.00
9 Soriano 9.33
10 Braun 10.00
11 Howard 11.67
11 Santana 11.67
13 Sizemore 12.67
13 Crawford 12.67
15 Cabrera 14.67
16 Fielder 16.33
17 Beltran 17.00
18 Ortiz 18.33
19 Phillips 18.67
20 Peavy 20.33
21 Upton 22.33
22 Lee (OF) 23.00
22 Teixeira 23.00
24 Guerrero 23.33
25 Berkman 24.00
26 Suzuki 25.67
27 Rios 26.67
28 Martin 30.67
28 Martinez 30.67
30 Granderson 32.00
30 Atkins 32.00
32 Lee (1B) 32.33
33 Roberts 33.33
34 Ramirez (OF) 34.33
35 Byrnes 34.67
36 Abreu 37.00
37 Ordonez 37.67
37 Markakis 37.67
39 Morneau 40.00
39 Hafner 40.00
41 Tulowitzki 40.33
42 Figgins 42.67
43 Jeter 43.33
44 Ramirez (3B) 45.00
45 Hart 47.00
46 Pena 48.00
47 Papelbon 49.00
48 Pierre 49.67
49 Mauer 50.00
50 Putz 52.00
51 Bedard 53.67
52 Hunter 54.00
53 Rodriguez (CL) 55.67
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
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Edwards Kings
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First Three NFBC Mock Drafts
Well, I am glad everyone was excited I put up the stats from the first four rounds. Since we got such a great response, I am pulling all the Edwards Industries seasonal labor off the Chia Pet Christmas production and having them concentrate on NFBC Mock Draft analysis.
In the first three Mock Drafts, of the first 90 players taken, 84 were taken in all three by the end of the 6th round. To be frank, I had expected a little more diversity to kick in.
Of the remaining 6 spots, 17 players were taken (7 twice and 10 once). Ten of this group of 17 players were pitchers and four were OF's.
Below are the 84 players common to all three the ADP (columns are Last Name, MD1, MD2, MD3, and ADP):
MD MD MD MD
LN 1 2 3 ADP
Rodriguez (3B) 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.67
Ramirez (SS) 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.67
Reyes 1.02 1.03 1.05 3.33
Pujols 1.04 1.05 1.04 4.33
Wright 1.05 1.04 1.06 5.00
Rollins 1.07 1.06 1.03 5.33
Holliday 1.08 1.08 1.07 7.67
Utley 1.11 1.07 1.09 9.00
Soriano 1.09 1.09 1.10 9.33
Braun 1.06 2.01 1.08 10.00
Santana 1.10 1.13 1.12 11.67
Howard 1.12 1.10 1.13 11.67
Crawford 1.15 1.12 1.11 12.67
Sizemore 1.13 1.11 1.14 12.67
Cabrera 1.14 1.14 2.01 14.67
Fielder 2.04 1.15 1.15 16.33
Beltran 2.01 2.03 2.02 17.00
Ortiz 2.02 2.04 2.04 18.33
Phillips 2.03 2.05 2.03 18.67
Peavy 2.07 2.02 2.07 20.33
Upton 2.05 2.11 2.06 22.33
Teixeira 2.11 2.08 2.05 23.00
Lee (OF) 2.09 2.06 2.09 23.00
Guerrero 2.08 2.07 2.10 23.33
Berkman 2.06 2.09 2.12 24.00
Suzuki 2.10 2.14 2.08 25.67
Rios 2.12 2.10 2.13 26.67
Martinez 2.15 2.13 3.04 30.67
Martin 2.14 2.12 3.06 30.67
Atkins 3.07 3.03 2.11 32.00
Granderson 2.13 3.01 3.07 32.00
Lee (1B) 3.08 2.15 2.14 32.33
Roberts 3.04 3.05 3.01 33.33
Ramirez (OF) 3.01 3.07 3.05 34.33
Byrnes 3.03 3.08 3.03 34.67
Abreu 3.05 3.06 3.10 37.00
Ordonez 3.12 3.09 3.02 37.67
Markakis 3.13 3.02 3.08 37.67
Hafner 4.04 3.11 2.15 40.00
Morneau 3.02 3.12 4.01 40.00
Tulowitzki 3.14 3.04 3.13 40.33
Figgins 3.10 3.14 3.14 42.67
Jeter 3.06 4.04 3.15 43.33
Ramirez (3B) 4.09 3.10 3.11 45.00
Hart 4.01 4.08 3.12 47.00
Pena 3.09 4.07 4.08 48.00
Papelbon 4.06 4.01 4.05 49.00
Pierre 4.02 4.09 4.03 49.67
Mauer 4.08 4.13 3.09 50.00
Putz 3.15 4.10 4.11 52.00
Bedard 4.05 4.12 4.09 53.67
McCann 3.11 4.11 5.04 53.67
Hunter 4.10 4.15 4.02 54.00
Nathan 4.03 4.02 5.07 54.00
Young (OF) 4.11 3.15 5.03 54.67
Rodriguez (CL) 4.14 4.06 4.12 55.67
Dunn 5.01 4.14 4.04 56.33
Pence 4.07 4.05 5.10 57.33
Webb 4.12 5.07 4.06 58.33
Kinsler 5.13 4.03 4.13 59.67
Beckett 5.05 5.03 4.07 60.00
Guillen 5.14 3.13 5.05 60.67
Sabathia 5.07 5.02 4.10 61.33
Haren 5.03 5.04 4.14 62.00
Lackey 4.13 5.10 5.02 63.33
Jones (3B) 5.08 5.08 4.15 65.33
Cano 5.10 5.06 5.06 67.33
Hamels 5.02 5.12 5.08 67.33
Victorino 5.11 5.01 5.12 68.00
Furcal 4.15 5.09 6.04 69.33
Saito 5.06 6.02 5.13 72.00
Kazmir 6.05 5.15 5.11 75.33
Gonzalez 6.15 6.07 5.01 77.67
Sheffield 6.10 5.14 5.14 77.67
Zambrano 5.09 6.04 6.11 78.00
Valverde 6.07 5.13 6.06 78.67
Wells 6.06 6.08 5.15 79.67
Weeks 6.08 6.06 6.01 80.00
Konerko 6.03 6.03 6.09 80.00
Tejada 5.15 6.10 6.15 83.33
Young (SS) 6.11 6.13 6.02 83.67
Hawpe 6.09 6.12 6.05 83.67
[ December 18, 2007, 01:03 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
In the first three Mock Drafts, of the first 90 players taken, 84 were taken in all three by the end of the 6th round. To be frank, I had expected a little more diversity to kick in.
Of the remaining 6 spots, 17 players were taken (7 twice and 10 once). Ten of this group of 17 players were pitchers and four were OF's.
Below are the 84 players common to all three the ADP (columns are Last Name, MD1, MD2, MD3, and ADP):
MD MD MD MD
LN 1 2 3 ADP
Rodriguez (3B) 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.67
Ramirez (SS) 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.67
Reyes 1.02 1.03 1.05 3.33
Pujols 1.04 1.05 1.04 4.33
Wright 1.05 1.04 1.06 5.00
Rollins 1.07 1.06 1.03 5.33
Holliday 1.08 1.08 1.07 7.67
Utley 1.11 1.07 1.09 9.00
Soriano 1.09 1.09 1.10 9.33
Braun 1.06 2.01 1.08 10.00
Santana 1.10 1.13 1.12 11.67
Howard 1.12 1.10 1.13 11.67
Crawford 1.15 1.12 1.11 12.67
Sizemore 1.13 1.11 1.14 12.67
Cabrera 1.14 1.14 2.01 14.67
Fielder 2.04 1.15 1.15 16.33
Beltran 2.01 2.03 2.02 17.00
Ortiz 2.02 2.04 2.04 18.33
Phillips 2.03 2.05 2.03 18.67
Peavy 2.07 2.02 2.07 20.33
Upton 2.05 2.11 2.06 22.33
Teixeira 2.11 2.08 2.05 23.00
Lee (OF) 2.09 2.06 2.09 23.00
Guerrero 2.08 2.07 2.10 23.33
Berkman 2.06 2.09 2.12 24.00
Suzuki 2.10 2.14 2.08 25.67
Rios 2.12 2.10 2.13 26.67
Martinez 2.15 2.13 3.04 30.67
Martin 2.14 2.12 3.06 30.67
Atkins 3.07 3.03 2.11 32.00
Granderson 2.13 3.01 3.07 32.00
Lee (1B) 3.08 2.15 2.14 32.33
Roberts 3.04 3.05 3.01 33.33
Ramirez (OF) 3.01 3.07 3.05 34.33
Byrnes 3.03 3.08 3.03 34.67
Abreu 3.05 3.06 3.10 37.00
Ordonez 3.12 3.09 3.02 37.67
Markakis 3.13 3.02 3.08 37.67
Hafner 4.04 3.11 2.15 40.00
Morneau 3.02 3.12 4.01 40.00
Tulowitzki 3.14 3.04 3.13 40.33
Figgins 3.10 3.14 3.14 42.67
Jeter 3.06 4.04 3.15 43.33
Ramirez (3B) 4.09 3.10 3.11 45.00
Hart 4.01 4.08 3.12 47.00
Pena 3.09 4.07 4.08 48.00
Papelbon 4.06 4.01 4.05 49.00
Pierre 4.02 4.09 4.03 49.67
Mauer 4.08 4.13 3.09 50.00
Putz 3.15 4.10 4.11 52.00
Bedard 4.05 4.12 4.09 53.67
McCann 3.11 4.11 5.04 53.67
Hunter 4.10 4.15 4.02 54.00
Nathan 4.03 4.02 5.07 54.00
Young (OF) 4.11 3.15 5.03 54.67
Rodriguez (CL) 4.14 4.06 4.12 55.67
Dunn 5.01 4.14 4.04 56.33
Pence 4.07 4.05 5.10 57.33
Webb 4.12 5.07 4.06 58.33
Kinsler 5.13 4.03 4.13 59.67
Beckett 5.05 5.03 4.07 60.00
Guillen 5.14 3.13 5.05 60.67
Sabathia 5.07 5.02 4.10 61.33
Haren 5.03 5.04 4.14 62.00
Lackey 4.13 5.10 5.02 63.33
Jones (3B) 5.08 5.08 4.15 65.33
Cano 5.10 5.06 5.06 67.33
Hamels 5.02 5.12 5.08 67.33
Victorino 5.11 5.01 5.12 68.00
Furcal 4.15 5.09 6.04 69.33
Saito 5.06 6.02 5.13 72.00
Kazmir 6.05 5.15 5.11 75.33
Gonzalez 6.15 6.07 5.01 77.67
Sheffield 6.10 5.14 5.14 77.67
Zambrano 5.09 6.04 6.11 78.00
Valverde 6.07 5.13 6.06 78.67
Wells 6.06 6.08 5.15 79.67
Weeks 6.08 6.06 6.01 80.00
Konerko 6.03 6.03 6.09 80.00
Tejada 5.15 6.10 6.15 83.33
Young (SS) 6.11 6.13 6.02 83.67
Hawpe 6.09 6.12 6.05 83.67
[ December 18, 2007, 01:03 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
First Three NFBC Mock Drafts
Great stuff Wayne now that football is finally over for me I can concentrate on baseball. Thanks for the info.
"Fortis fortuna adiuvat"- "Fortune favors the brave"