Free Agents and Trades

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Oct 25, 2008 5:29 am

We've all heard the rumor of Jake Peavy being traded to another NL team. Wherever he ends up, by leaving Petco, his WHIP and ERA will probably suffer.

Anyway, it got me thinking as to who will be most affected by moving to another team or venue. Manny and Sabathia have gotten the most ink, but fantasy-wise, wherever they end up they are going to be a first three round pick.

My nomination would be Adam Dunn. His consistency with 40 hr's has made him a 4th or 5th round pick every year. His propensity for striking out and a batting average that only Jamie Moyer would love, also is what keeps him in that 4th or 5th round area.

Enter free agency. Adam Dunn signs with the Colorado Rockies. A more spacious outfield allowing for more lucky bloops, more gappers, and of course, even more home runs. A move like this, in my estimation, puts Dunn in the second or third round.

Any scenarios out there that you would like to see or have a dramatic effect on the draft?

[ October 25, 2008, 11:44 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Sat Oct 25, 2008 6:54 am

Immediately after I pass on Holliday in the first round I'd like to see him traded to the Giants. You know, just to see how he fares.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Oct 25, 2008 7:16 am

Dough - I'm sure not I could bring myself to believe he'd hit for much better an average going from one great hitters park in CIN to another in COL.

The one that intrigues me is Ibanez possibly heading to the Cubs. I grabbed in the mock 8th or 9th round, seems like he's got uspside there.

Of coure, if bjoak is in my league he might be a 2nd or 3rd rounder knowing how easy it is to hit for AL'ers coming to the NL.

Which reminds me, Miggy finished with a pretty nice season, didn't he.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Oct 25, 2008 6:51 pm

Kevin, take a gander at stadium stats. Although Great American has ranked at or near the top in home runs the last few years, just as consistently, they are below the norm in batting average. Great power park with the friendly winds blowing out towards the alleys, but not much else.

For the Cubs, I would rather have a natural right fielder with NL experience. Going hard after Bobby Abreu would be a good move.

Would Abreu count as one of those AL'ers coming to the NL?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 5:01 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Kevin, take a gander at stadium stats. Although Great American has ranked at or near the top in home runs the last few years, just as consistently, they are below the norm in batting average. Great power park with the friendly winds blowing out towards the alleys, but not much else.

For the Cubs, I would rather have a natural right fielder with NL experience. Going hard after Bobby Abreu would be a good move.

Would Abreu count as one of those AL'ers coming to the NL?

That could help a little dough, but 245, 252 and 236 = his road average last 3 years. Seems to me his low avg is his approach to hitting more than anything. I think he could hit 270 if he wanted to, but that would probably mean a few less HRs and BBs. A different team, different coaching and philosophy might make more difference than stadium.

For Abreu, agreed I'd love to see him in RF, I just brought up Ibanez per Hendry's reported interest.

[ October 26, 2008, 11:02 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 5:18 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Dough - I'm sure not I could bring myself to believe he'd hit for much better an average going from one great hitters park in CIN to another in COL.

The one that intrigues me is Ibanez possibly heading to the Cubs. I grabbed in the mock 8th or 9th round, seems like he's got uspside there.

Of coure, if bjoak is in my league he might be a 2nd or 3rd rounder knowing how easy it is to hit for AL'ers coming to the NL.

Which reminds me, Miggy finished with a pretty nice season, didn't he. Good topic.

My exact thought to the Dunn argument here is what doughy said in the next post. There are different types of hitter's parks. That said, I think Dunn took full advantage of GAB and I'd worry more that if he is anywhere except GAB or CF, his value will take a hit unless it's, like, Texas.

I feel more negative about a lot of the potential moves. I think people might pay for CC's NL stats if he is going back to the AL, for example, since we are on the NL/AL argument.

Since Ibanez is not a pitcher trying to earn more K's, I'd say that I'd be more impressed with the slide into a better ballpark with a better supporting cast than with his league switch. But I'd still guess he ends up on someone else's team.

Yes, I think Tejada had a better year than I expected. I also think Cabrera had a good year and it looks good for him going forward, especially with his second half, but he still did not earn his keep without steals or an ungodly batting average in the early first.

Which reminds me, Haren finished with a pretty nice season, didn't he?

To get back to the spirit of this thread, I'd say that Juan Cruz might go become a really valuable closer somewhere.

[ October 26, 2008, 11:21 AM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 5:25 am

I loved Juan Cruz when he came up with the Cubs, I thought he could dominate in anything he did.

But if anyone shouldn't be a closer because of his mental make-up, put him on the poster. He's high-strung and just doesn't do well with that pressure. I've always thought eventually he'd mature, but last I saw he looks the same as ever.

I'd like to see someone give him 30 starts.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 5:31 am

I think teams would love to start Cruz, but the fear is that he won't hold up under the workload. He is kind of frail with a checkered health history.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 5:34 am

Am I giving away my location too much if I suggest Dunn would be an ideal fit for Oakland (though not fantasy-wise)?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 6:49 am

Juan Rivera playing in Texas or in a Yankee lineup would be worth a look as well.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 3:36 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

Am I giving away my location too much if I suggest Dunn would be an ideal fit for Oakland (though not fantasy-wise)? They already have Dunn, his name is Jack Cust.

[ October 26, 2008, 09:38 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 5:02 pm

Yeah, but he is like a poor man's Adam Dunn.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 5:02 pm

Maybe even a homeless person's Adam Dunn.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 5:40 pm

Chris Carter may be the young version...and cheaper.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 5:53 pm

True, true. You just won't let me have him, will you?

I don't think Carter is ready yet. The A's have money to spend and they have said they will try to get a hitter and specified not necessarily a right-handed hitter so I figure maybe they want him. He won't be cheap, but he should be somewhat undervalued due to negative perceptions and a low batting average (that is made up for in OBP), the exact kinds of things the A's don't worry about. He can also play adequately in the outfield, while if no one works out at first, he can play there and be replaced by one of the better young outfielders to shore up the defense. That is why I suggested it was a good fit.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 6:00 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

True, true. You just won't let me have him, will you?

I don't think Carter is ready yet. The A's have money to spend and they have said they will try to get a hitter and specified not necessarily a right-handed hitter so I figure maybe they want him. He won't be cheap, but he should be somewhat undervalued due to negative perceptions and a low batting average (that is made up for in OBP), the exact kinds of things the A's don't worry about. He can also play adequately in the outfield, while if no one works out at first, he can play there and be replaced by one of the better young outfielders to shore up the defense. That is why I suggested it was a good fit.

Alright, I give.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 6:08 pm

Of course, it probably wouldn't kill them to get a third basemen with some offensive ability. That'd be the best fit. Hanrahan is great on defense but he doesn't even offer Ellis-level offense. And Chavez, I don't know what is going on with that dude. They should take him out back and shoot him like a racehorse with a leg injury.

Anyone know what third basemen are available? I don't know why the free agent list has to be a huge secret until 20 articles come out about it thirty seconds after the World Series every year.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 6:20 pm

Not much there. Blake, Crede, but if we want to make it a whole team of power hitting, striking out, and obp machines maybe they can sign Russell Branyan

Chavez contract in regards to playing time is rivaling that of Rusty Greer and Carl Pavano. Pavano, by the way, is another free agent this year. Somebody will give him millions. :rolleyes:

[ October 27, 2008, 12:22 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 6:54 pm

You are forgetting about Three True Outcomes monster Jason Giambi, who actually has been linked to the A's in offseason rumors. I'm sure the A's would like nothing better than a roster full of those guys, but the problem is that they usually can't field at all. Dunn is kind of like an honorary exception in that mediocrity is the high water mark for that group. Odd coincidence that they don't put the ball in play *and* can't field balls that are in play.

Maybe the A's could load up on those guys and then grow the grass a foot high, which will only help their team since the other team will basically never field. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:52 am

Reading Moneyball is like crack to Fantasy Baseball players, but Beane better get something out of one of these trades that produces. He traded Harden, Haren, Blanton(Beane had to be beating his dog watching Blanton pitch last night) and Swisher. So far the guys he has gotten in return have not performed: Gio and Carlos Gonzales etc Also reading that book makes it seem likely that if at all possible the A's will try to get Giambi back to fill the "lone high priced slugger" role previously filled by Frank THomas, Mike Piazza, Mike Sweeney

Cowboy Joe · Post by **Cowboy Joe** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 12:44 pm

Would anyone do a Duchscherer for Atkins deal?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:27 pm

Originally posted by Schwks:

Reading Moneyball is like crack to Fantasy Baseball players, but Beane better get something out of one of these trades that produces. He traded Harden, Haren, Blanton(Beane had to be beating his dog watching Blanton pitch last night) and Swisher. So far the guys he has gotten in return have not performed: Gio and Carlos Gonzales etc Also reading that book makes it seem likely that if at all possible the A's will try to get Giambi back to fill the "lone high priced slugger" role previously filled by Frank THomas, Mike Piazza, Mike Sweeney Obviously, Haren has a lot of value, but the A's got back six minor leaguers, four of which are now major leaguers (Eveland was sort of like an honorary minor leaguer b/c he sucked before). That already is a huge return. While you expect to see a real stud come out of the deal, by all-encompassing stats like VORP or PRC, Eveland and Smith combined were already worth more than Haren this year. That is before you account for price and years controlled or the fact that most of these guys are 22 and still have six years to grow. You can call it a win now. It will be a much bigger win seven years from now.

The Swisher deal, same thing. Ryan Sweeney was worth more than Swisher all by himself in 2008. The De Los Santos injury and bad start for Gio make this deal look iffy, but at the same time, no one expected it to be a win for the A's in year one, so they can't complain.

I was not a fan of the Harden trade, but Gallagher is going to be a good pitcher and while Harden will probably be worth more next year if he only makes half his starts, when you think about the years they will control the pitchers and injury issues, it makes sense over the next five years and should be a long term win.

Yeah, Country Joe Blanton was addition by subtraction and since he seemed to step it up in the playoffs this year, he worked out for the Phils too. I'm sure the A's don't begrudge another team getting some good starts from a guy at an important time, considering they couldn't use him in the playoffs themselves.

If you put all the players back, the A's would have had a team of about the same quality this past year and no one expected to get that much out of them in the first year so it's already hard to say they were bad trades. Let's see what happens when we get to the years where they were really supposed to matter.

[ October 27, 2008, 08:37 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:39 pm

Originally posted by Cowboy Joe:

Would anyone do a Duchscherer for Atkins deal? I'm not sure the A's have enough pitching depth to make that work or that the Rox are willing to take on that much injury risk.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:08 pm

Agreed. The Rox still smart from the names of Hampton and Neagle. They would rather have five or six prospects...or Chone Figgins and a couple of prospects.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 4:21 am

figgens is going to the white sox- and i hope teams look at those colorado splits before they trade for the "stud" hitters on the rockies.