Free Agents and Trades

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 4:21 am

Wow that was a comprehensive reply. Is BJOAC a nom de plum for Forst?

While I find Beane to be an innovator, the stats he uses become meaningless unless the team has a core of at least a few stars or semi stars. I think Beane himself acknowledges this in a way when he signed a non-Moneyball type Chavez to big money, thinking that he was a star in his prime, albeit one without great OBP.

The A's successes of recent years were built around studs, though they were cheap beacause they came up through the system. You can pack all the VORP you want , the A's aint going nowhere with a team built around Ryan Sweeney. I have a problem with trading young talent in its prime (Haren most) for non-sure things. If you are trading a young stud, you need an absolute cant miss guy...a Kershaw, Price, Hanson, Scherzer type of guy. You can pack in all of the 22 year olds and if one doesnt blossom into a stud, your team cant be competitive.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 4:24 am

I prefer Sternberg's model in Tampa Bay...sign your young studs early and get discounts to lock them up. Longoria is locked up through 2013 for 44 mil. Also look at contracts like those signed by Reyes, Wright, Braun, Shields.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 4:26 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Reading Moneyball is like crack to Fantasy Baseball playersnever read it, never will

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:48 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Wow that was a comprehensive reply. Is BJOAC a nom de plum for Forst?

While I find Beane to be an innovator, the stats he uses become meaningless unless the team has a core of at least a few stars or semi stars. I think Beane himself acknowledges this in a way when he signed a non-Moneyball type Chavez to big money, thinking that he was a star in his prime, albeit one without great OBP.

The A's successes of recent years were built around studs, though they were cheap beacause they came up through the system. You can pack all the VORP you want , the A's aint going nowhere with a team built around Ryan Sweeney. I have a problem with trading young talent in its prime (Haren most) for non-sure things. If you are trading a young stud, you need an absolute cant miss guy...a Kershaw, Price, Hanson, Scherzer type of guy. You can pack in all of the 22 year olds and if one doesnt blossom into a stud, your team cant be competitive. Yeah, but you're saying it was a bad idea to make the trades. They were clearly not a good team this year, but did you expect them to win 104 games if they never made the trades? My argument was that they were just as good as they would have been. That's still not very good, but now they have the young players that might develop into the superstars you are talking about. They also have 40 million dollars from the deals that they didn't have before and they can spend that on established superstars.

So the satus quo would have been a 75 win team. (You can't even argue that number because they were worse the year before the trades.)

After the trades, you have a 75 win team with a lot of growth opportunity and 40 mil spending money.

Which team are you going to take? The one with or without the trades?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:58 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Schwks:

Reading Moneyball is like crack to Fantasy Baseball playersnever read it, never will [/QUOTE]GG, if you started reading this book you'd have trouble putting it down. This was truly one of the more fascinating reads. Hell, I think I'll bring it on the plane with me this week and read it again.

It's definitely a great read.

It's certainly not geared towards fantasy players or even a "must read" for fantasy players. It's just a good baseball book and the way Michael Lewis laid it all out was pure genius. Loved it.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 11:05 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Schwks:

Reading Moneyball is like crack to Fantasy Baseball playersnever read it, never will [/QUOTE]You and Joe Morgan both. You may not learn anything about on-field baseball depending on where you are at. I know a lot of people can learn something about fielding since I still hear a lot of talk about errors. You will learn something about front office politics, but anyway it is a great read and Michael Lewis is a wonderful writer and it's just a good story, which is why they are making the movie.

I think a lot of people have this misconception on how it is the bible on walking and not running around the bases and that is not at all the case. They were tiny things that the media picked up on and turned it into something that it wasn't. I think if you are going to pass judgement on it you should at least read a couple of chapters first.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 11:11 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Schwks:

Reading Moneyball is like crack to Fantasy Baseball playersnever read it, never will [/QUOTE]GG, if you started reading this book you'd have trouble putting it down. This was truly one of the more fascinating reads. Hell, I think I'll bring it on the plane with me this week and read it again.

It's definitely a great read.

It's certainly not geared towards fantasy players or even a "must read" for fantasy players. It's just a good baseball book and the way Michael Lewis laid it all out was pure genius. Loved it. [/QUOTE]Didn't see yours when I posted. I owe you a beer. I wrote that someone should read a couple chapters before passing judgement because I figured anyone who reads that far will finish it for sure.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 11:12 am

when it comes to baseball, i'm only interested in reading/learning things that will help me compete in the NFBC.

in addition, i haven't watched any of the postseason games this year, including the world series games. no interest whatsoever. same goes for the NFL playoffs.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:32 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

when it comes to baseball, i'm only interested in reading/learning things that will help me compete in the NFBC.

in addition, i haven't watched any of the postseason games this year, including the world series games. no interest whatsoever. same goes for the NFL playoffs. Sad to say, but true for me as well.

However, I have read Moneyball for entertainment purposes. It is probably already dated now in Beane's and others philosophies.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 7:11 am

With respect to Moneyball, I have to disagree with you, Greg. I certainly agree that the A's means of player evaluation would not be relevent to fantasy baseball or the NFBC, it is applicable in a few ways.

1. Beane thought outside of the box, and figured out a different way to win, utilizing his smaller pool of resources. As a roto player, thinking outside of the box, will enable creative decisionmaking in seeking out quality and breakout years...the key ingredient in a roto win.

2. Fantasy die hards view themselves as GMs of sorts and enjoy the manuevering, speculating, trading, FA signings the way a GM does. TO me, the book portrays the ultimate fantasy setting. Yes it is a great story, but I loved it as the GM that I envison myself as more then just as a general reader.

(I will also note that it made me errantly draft Mark Teahan at 10 in 2007, so I agree that any lessons learned from it should be by analogy only)

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 7:15 am

For instance, I started evaluating starting pitching utilizing an emphasis on k/bb ratio and combining it with other factors. Now I realize that my "system" is hardly foolproof, but it has enabled me to find gems like Shields in 07 and Baker in 08. I know I am not breaking any new ground, but the book made me look for alternative ways to evaluate talent.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 7:19 am

Finally, GG, you miss out on good opportunity for evaluation by not tuning in to the playoffs and WS. Where else better to judge a player's skill set, then when he is facing the ultimate pressure game setting. Especially for young guys, I think it is great, not to mention that you are watching guys that you normally might see only a couple of times per year when they play your home team. 1/4 of all players were in the playoffs...great chance to see Hamels' change, scout D Price etc

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 8:41 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Finally, GG, you miss out on good opportunity for evaluation by not tuning in to the playoffs and WS. Where else better to judge a player's skill set, then when he is facing the ultimate pressure game setting. Especially for young guys, I think it is great, not to mention that you are watching guys that you normally might see only a couple of times per year when they play your home team. 1/4 of all players were in the playoffs...great chance to see Hamels' change, scout D Price etc Devils advocate here.

Why watch them play under pressure? I would rather have the data from the regular season which is what our contest is based on. If Longoria had gone 0 for the series, would that mean he is not good under pressure or just had a bad five games? Would it affect his adp? I doubt it.

Scouting? These are the same guys that have played all year, they're not going to bring out anything different now.

A changeup cannot be differentiated on tv. You may know that it was a changeup from the batters reaction, but on tv, 80 mph looks the same as 90 mph.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 10:11 am

Well, I agree with Doughboys points, but I think that if you are academically involved with things, they lend themselves to other areas. Without going into 30 examples of how that has happened to me, most of the baseball stuff I read/watch/study is not strictly related to fantasy, but you get a holistic view and a broader understanding of the components of fantasy play.

I guess more briefly, I am saying that you run into things to help you that you never would have thought of when you're not just using the same old resources. And a genuine appreciation is going to lead you to those things a lot better than just going around searching for a fantsasy nugget.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 10:13 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Finally, GG, you miss out on good opportunity for evaluation by not tuning in to the playoffs and WS. Where else better to judge a player's skill set, then when he is facing the ultimate pressure game setting. Especially for young guys, I think it is great, not to mention that you are watching guys that you normally might see only a couple of times per year when they play your home team. 1/4 of all players were in the playoffs...great chance to see Hamels' change, scout D Price etc Two things.

~It’s been a few years since I’ve read Moneyball, but if I remember right, one of the ideas was to not use such a small sample size(World Series) to evaluate players. It’s one of the reasons I give relatively minor weight to spring training stats the first couple weeks of March.

~I’m a little surprised to read that some do not watch the playoffs and World Series. I guess I just assumed that we are all fans of the game. I know that there is money on the line and money to be won in the NFBC, but I couldn’t imagine investing the time and money that it takes to play this game without being a fan. (And, if it is only about the money for some….I would think it’s a long term bad ROI for most)

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:11 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Finally, GG, you miss out on good opportunity for evaluation by not tuning in to the playoffs and WS. Where else better to judge a player's skill set, then when he is facing the ultimate pressure game setting. Especially for young guys, I think it is great, not to mention that you are watching guys that you normally might see only a couple of times per year when they play your home team. 1/4 of all players were in the playoffs...great chance to see Hamels' change, scout D Price etc i know everything i need to know about player evaluation from the regular season. postseason doesn't tell me anything. too small a sample size.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:13 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

I guess more briefly, I am saying that you run into things to help you that you never would have thought of when you're not just using the same old resources. And a genuine appreciation is going to lead you to those things a lot better than just going around searching for a fantsasy nugget. by watching postseason games???? by reading moneyball???? i don't think so.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:18 am

Originally posted by rucrew2:

~I’m a little surprised to read that some do not watch the playoffs and World Series. I guess I just assumed that we are all fans of the game. I know that there is money on the line and money to be won in the NFBC, but I couldn’t imagine investing the time and money that it takes to play this game without being a fan. (And, if it is only about the money for some….I would think it’s a long term bad ROI for most) a 'fan' of what exactly? there are no team loyalties anymore. we live in a world of free agency. go where the money is. me being a baseball 'fan' ended years ago.

if i didn't play fantasy baseball, i'd have zero interest in mlb baseball. zero.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 12:03 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

I guess more briefly, I am saying that you run into things to help you that you never would have thought of when you're not just using the same old resources. And a genuine appreciation is going to lead you to those things a lot better than just going around searching for a fantsasy nugget. by watching postseason games???? by reading moneyball???? i don't think so. [/QUOTE]Read Moneyball before you make assumptions about it and I'd assume you've seen a post season game at some point in your life so I'll let that point stand valid. No, I was saying that I read, watch, study things about all aspects of the game as a fan and that leads to knowledge that you don't get by just hunting down fantasy info.

But as long as you bring those two up, Moneyball enlightened me to a lot of things in the game I had no idea about in 2002 and was one of the things that got me interested in digging deeper into stats. I had no idea who Voros McCracken was before then, for example, and his work revolutionized the way most of us view pitching stats, so there you go.

As for the playoffs, I agree with the small sample thing, but you can learn things just as you can by watching any game. If you require an example, I learned that BJ's elbow was affecting him during the season by seeing him in the postseason.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 12:59 pm

I am a fantasy fan, more than a baseball or sports fan. Personally, two reasons.

One, go back in your time capsules to the days of Willie, Mickey, and the Duke. I lived and died Willie Mays and the Giants, transistor radio at school, feighned being sick for a whole week in October of '62 just to listen to the World Series. Anyway, I was a teenager when Mays was traded. I didn't care why. I just cared that they had traded Willie Mays, the greatest player who ever lived...I haven't followed another team since.

Two, I have never bought into playoffs in any sport. They play all season for what again? To narrow the field? It is all a money making sham by owners to get more games and more fannies in the seats, as everyone knows. The guy who follows a team has a better chance of seeing their team be a champion. For the fellow that doesen't follow a team, however, the interest decreases, its now become a smaller tournament of games and the hottest, not always being the best, team wins. Were the Giants the best team in football last year? Going into the playoffs, only Giant fans (and damn few of them)would have said yes. Four games later they are "the best".

Playoffs, rising costs for the spectator,free agency, players who play, for the most part, for love of money and self and not team values. I know I am being very pessimistic, but lets face it, all pro sports are run with money being the 1-10 objective. Joe Fan is not even close.

In the meantime, fantasy sports is the greatest. I can use Ichiro's selfishness to my benefit, Milton Bradley can act like an ass and hurt himself and I'll know he wouldn't be on my team. Control is in your hands, and not the local GM who, unless you're in Chicago, LA, Boston, or New York, is plotting to save the owners money, while trying to put a viable product on the field.

Count me as one who would rather hear that I am full of **** from a fellow fantasy owner in Vegas over where a player should be drafted, then listen to endless sound bytes from players who say how important the fan is.

That reminds me, it seems before any player steps on a pro field, they are thoroughly versed on how to answer every question from the press. Blecchh! I know its not racially correct now, but my favorite radio commercial when I was a kid was Willie exclaiming, "I gets all my groceries at Luckys!" It'd never happen now for obvious reasons, but dammit, that was Willie, the real Willie.

I'll stop.

I had intended this to be a few lines but apparently felt more deeply than I thought....I'll put away the soapbox. Thanks for listening.

Maybe you were right, KJ, wnen you said that I should start a blog.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 1:25 pm

I actually think baseball does a nice job of teaching players how to be professional in front of the press. I mean honesty is good and all, but is anyone interested in seeing an American basketball player trash talk his teammate in broken English? What's that? You are? Well, anyway I'm not. And I like the players to look a little more wholesome than Dennis Rodman. I just don't like the trashiness. Football is kind of the same. I do like how McNabb looks like a typical football thug and then gets in front of the mic and speaks in poetic eloquence about the game.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 2:18 pm

I don't like the trash talk either. I would like the players to say what is on their mind instead of what they are programmed to say. So very few athletes do this with multi-million dollar revenue on the line.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 12:05 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Read Moneyball before you make assumptions about it and I'd assume you've seen a post season game at some point in your life so I'll let that point stand valid. No, I was saying that I read, watch, study things about all aspects of the game as a fan and that leads to knowledge that you don't get by just hunting down fantasy info.

But as long as you bring those two up, Moneyball enlightened me to a lot of things in the game I had no idea about in 2002 and was one of the things that got me interested in digging deeper into stats. I had no idea who Voros McCracken was before then, for example, and his work revolutionized the way most of us view pitching stats, so there you go.

As for the playoffs, I agree with the small sample thing, but you can learn things just as you can by watching any game. If you require an example, I learned that BJ's elbow was affecting him during the season by seeing him in the postseason. hey - if something works for you, by all means continue. i don't know who Voros McCracken is and I likely never will.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:15 am

Honestly...great postings all of them. While I am a huge Mets fan and have been since I first remember baseball, I can easily see how pro sports, as the business end has clamored for increasing profits, players are bought, sold and traded (I think I cried for a week when TOm TErrific was traded) it does become ridiculously hard to stay loyal to ones' team. How do you stay a Yankee(or Mets) fan when they routinely stack their team with ridiculous amount of high price talent that seemingly unevens the playing field? How do you stay a Marlins, Pitts, A's fan when they routinely sell off their high price talent? And those factors have basically driven me away from the other three majors...but baseball somehow keeps my interst...is it because it represents more then just a game...summer nights, time with pop, the smells of the stadium, studying the endless boxscores, Im not sure.

I also agree with Bjoac that all information is helpful in some way.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:14 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Read Moneyball before you make assumptions about it and I'd assume you've seen a post season game at some point in your life so I'll let that point stand valid. No, I was saying that I read, watch, study things about all aspects of the game as a fan and that leads to knowledge that you don't get by just hunting down fantasy info.

But as long as you bring those two up, Moneyball enlightened me to a lot of things in the game I had no idea about in 2002 and was one of the things that got me interested in digging deeper into stats. I had no idea who Voros McCracken was before then, for example, and his work revolutionized the way most of us view pitching stats, so there you go.

As for the playoffs, I agree with the small sample thing, but you can learn things just as you can by watching any game. If you require an example, I learned that BJ's elbow was affecting him during the season by seeing him in the postseason. hey - if something works for you, by all means continue. i don't know who Voros McCracken is and I likely never will. [/QUOTE]I'm sure you don't, but that is like saying you don't know anything about the blues, but you are an expert on rock and roll. Both those things may be true but everything you know about rock would be different if it weren't for the blues.

You likely employ old Voros's theories every time you look at a pitcher's line whether you know it or not.