Draft Order

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Mon Mar 15, 2004 9:49 am

Hello.

I have the 14th overall pick in round 1 and 2nd pick and 17th overall in round 2. Is it better to have one top pick or 1 later first round pick and early 2nd round? What is everyone's opinion on draft order?

Harlem Hangover · Post by **Harlem Hangover** » Mon Mar 15, 2004 12:05 pm

Hey Big Fish, im sure you'll get 100 different opinions from everyone who responds to you.. I think in the end, you can be successful from any draft spot if you play your cards right. Sure its nice to be able to lock up one of the top 3 players out there but they'll be plenty left for your 1st 2 picks.. After the first 5 picks or so, its a pretty wide-open draft and you may be able to get the guy you had 8th on your draftboard at you 14 slot.. Either way, it'll be alot of fun.. good luck

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Mon Mar 15, 2004 12:07 pm

Fish, if I had to choose, I'd take a top 5 pick. I think there's a clear separation of those players from the next set. The players from around 8 through 14 are fairly comparable, so my second choice would be to pick towards the end of the first round and hope to get TWO of those top 14.

By the way, I'm picking right before you in the 1st--hopefully I won't screw you over too badly

chi town here we come · Post by **chi town here we come** » Mon Mar 15, 2004 3:25 pm

big fish ,

do you know where THE TAMM bar is in downtown boston

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Mar 15, 2004 11:11 pm

Greg, I am in going to be in the Las Vegas draft, but I did not get an email telling me what league/draft position yet. Have those been sent out?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 12:39 am

Nevermind...I found it on the league forum

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 4:59 am

Originally posted by Harlem Hangover:

I think in the end, you can be successful from any draft spot if you play your cards right. Your chances of doing well diminish as you get closer to the 15th slot.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 5:21 am

The early picks have an inherent advantage simply because they get to select the players that are more standard deviations away from the average player. However, that does not mean a significant number of league winners will not come from the bottom picks. Getting A-rod only means you have a slight advantage after 1 pick, but if you take Luis Gonzalez in the 2nd round your advantage is long gone.

Also look at the injury factor. Where did Randy Johnson go in most leagues last year? Top-5 for sure. How many teams with RJ likely won their league? Very few.

There are advantages to the low picks; you get two of the top-20 players and four of the top-50. By the time it gets back to the guy with the #1 at the end of the 4th round all of the studs are off the board. Personally I feel I can win with any draft position. It’s the middle rounds that will ultimately decide this thing, plus injuries etc., not whether or not you get A-rod as your 1st guy.

M Co · Post by **M Co** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 5:48 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Harlem Hangover:

I think in the end, you can be successful from any draft spot if you play your cards right. Your chances of doing well diminish as you get closer to the 15th slot. [/QUOTE]I don't know that I personally agree with that. Two picks in the top 16-18 can sometimes be nice to. In any case, we have the position we have so no use worrying about it. The 12th spot honestly doesn't bother me.

a · Post by a » Tue Mar 16, 2004 6:34 am

That is only true if you were not prepared and drafted like crap. Last years champ drafted #13 I beleive.

Hey Gordon, which league did you end up in?

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Harlem Hangover:

I think in the end, you can be successful from any draft spot if you play your cards right. Your chances of doing well diminish as you get closer to the 15th slot. [/QUOTE]

Harlem Hangover · Post by **Harlem Hangover** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 6:40 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote: Your chances of doing well diminish as you get closer to the 15th slot. [/QB][/QUOTE]I tend to agree with you Gordo.. but the statement i made was just that you COULD BE successful from any spot, not that your chances would be better or worse

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 7:51 am

Fish, if I had to choose, I'd take a top 5 pick. I think there's a clear separation of those players from the next set. The players from around 8 through 14 are fairly comparable, so my second choice would be to pick towards the end of the first round and hope to get TWO of those top 14.

By the way, I'm picking right before you in the 1st--hopefully I won't screw you over too badly

viper · Post by **viper** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 9:03 am

Having a top 5 pick is biggest in football and basketball. I do think it gives you a small edge in baseball but with so many players active each week, the edge can be easily lost. A mid-round mistake can negate the edge. Of course, everyone makes mistakes in a draft. the team with the fewest mistakes will likely win assuming injuries even themselves out - but they never do.

Spoken by a team with the #14 pick (NY #4 - The Lou Gehrig Division). We have crossed Arod, Soriano & Pujols off off dream list.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 10:25 am

Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:

That is only true if you were not prepared and drafted like crap. Last years champ drafted #13 I beleive.I suspect the overall talent level of owners was suspect. Plus, there were only 45 owners. Anyone can get lucky in a three league format.

Top Dawg · Post by **Top Dawg** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 11:04 am

FYI - Last years WCOFB champ drafted 2nd and started with A-Rod and landed Prior in round 3. Not too bad a start at all, but he did it from post position 2, not 13. However, the guy leading most of the way picked around #13 in the same league.

Pete

Hoosier Hick · Post by **Hoosier Hick** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 12:02 pm

I really wanted to be in the top 8. There were 8 guys I would have been happy with. After Arod I think there is going to be large variations over the top 6 picks in all the leagues. I think it is hard to know who you will get if your not first or second. I've seen 8 or 9 different guys get drafted in the 2 thru 6 slots.