The Worst luck

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Apr 28, 2005 6:43 am

As a Benitez owner not a good day, but generally injuries tend to even themselves out, at least that is what I am telling myself.

Are there any teams that have Nomar and Benitez though? If you win with those 2 injuries you have accomplished something.

Evil Empire · Post by **Evil Empire** » Thu Apr 28, 2005 7:22 am

I have Nomar and a bunch of high priced guys that might as well be injured. My pitching is keeping me interested but I have to have the worse group of offensive players in the NFBC to date. Check this out:

Victor Martinez .208 or less

Travis Hafner 0 Homeruns

Vernon Wells probably under .200 with his 0-2.

Eric Byrnes under .200 lost his job

Nomar Garciapparra

Todd Walker

To say the least, I am disgusted with all of them.

OH, I almost forgot, try watching a Red Sox game and having Belhorn on your team. He would strikeout in a game of T-BALL!

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Thu Apr 28, 2005 8:01 am

Chest,

Do you have enough bench spots for Herges, Fassero, Brower, Eyre, and Christiansen?

Kevin D · Post by **Kevin D** » Thu Apr 28, 2005 8:55 am

There's a guy in LV #1 that renamed his team "The Chad Fox Expierence." I checked his roster. He's got Benitez Also. BJ Ryan, Julio and Betencourt. Does have Zambrano (the right one) and Arod. Only a Fantasy guy could see the humor in renaming his team!!!

Cellar Dwellers · Post by **Cellar Dwellers** » Thu Apr 28, 2005 7:25 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

As a Benitez owner not a good day, but generally injuries tend to even themselves out, at least that is what I am telling myself.

Are there any teams that have Nomar and Benitez though? If you win with those 2 injuries you have accomplished something. As a fellow Benitez owner myself, I figure it this way; at least now I only have to curse him once instead of cursing him everytime he would be giving up a game winning homer this year. Just when you think your team is coming together, you get hit with a big injury like that. This game will drive ya nuts

crazytown · Post by **crazytown** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 1:50 am

I'm one of those closer only guys. So I need my offense to produce. Three of my 1st 5 picks were Gagne, Nomar, and Bonds. Also struggling and in my starting lineup are Broussard,Cuddyer,Buck, Swisher and Giambi. Maybe that's why I'm in last?

Thanks you and have a nice day.

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 2:13 am

Crazytown, I think you have figured this game out.

As for Chest's comment that injuries have a way of averaging out, I thought that was true last year when I had one injury after another and never got out of the hole. They may average out over a period of time but we are talking years and not weeks or months.

Head 2 Head · Post by **Head 2 Head** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 2:57 am

Crazytown - Thank you for keeping me out of last place - I did manage to reach #299.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 5:59 am

No matter where you are in the standings today, keep plugging. Last year on April 25th, I was in 195th (out of 195) place and managing my team SOOOO well(why yes, I think Kurt Ainsworth will have a breakout year, and yes, thank you, I think I will waive Tim Worrell, and hmmmm, I think Jason Giambi will return to form). While I never got hot enough to push any of the overall leaders, I did manage to crawl up to 3rd in my league (Las Vegas #4 last year) with two weeks to go in the season before running out of gas. In short, we all still have a chance at the bucks!

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 8:11 am

No need to worry this earlier.

MEAN REVERSION

The tendency for players or teams to revert to their long-term (projected) averages after periods of relative under- or outperformance.

kd.gray · Post by **kd.gray** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 8:23 am

quote:

---------------------------------------------

There's a guy in LV #1 that renamed his team "The Chad Fox Expierence." I checked his roster. He's got Benitez Also. BJ Ryan, Julio and Betencourt. Does have Zambrano (the right one) and Arod. Only a Fantasy guy could see the humor in renaming his team!!!

--------------------

Last year in a different league I had my first two picks of Prior and Nomar. I really could see no other choice but to rename my team Achillis' Heels.

mulberry · Post by **mulberry** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 1:07 pm

I think we should start a thread just for nydownunder...every time I feel down about my players he pops up with another math saying and makes me feel better....props dude, you are one smart mofo...can I hire you next season as a predraft consultant so you can show me how to use all this math stuff to rank the players?

mulberry · Post by **mulberry** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 1:11 pm

G.C.A. - I feel you on bellhorn, I don't catch many sox games but the ones I see, he is always k'ing. I was ready to throw my tv across the room when any of the yanks would walk him in the play-offs last year with manny and ortiz behind him....love the comment on the tee ball!

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Sat Apr 30, 2005 1:59 am

Originally posted by mulberry:

I think we should start a thread just for nydownunder...every time I feel down about my players he pops up with another math saying and makes me feel better....props dude, you are one smart mofo...can I hire you next season as a predraft consultant so you can show me how to use all this math stuff to rank the players? Thanks for the compliment Mulberry! All you need to do is read Moneyball (which I presume everyone here already has) and study for the CFA (ie Portfolfio Mgmt & Statistics).

The thought/belief in mean reversion is great as long as MLB managers feel the same way with marginal players/starters. If not, you can't buy and hold. You must start to try and time the market (lineup swaps). that's when things start unraveling and you start taking riskier bets (moves).

Evil Empire · Post by **Evil Empire** » Sat Apr 30, 2005 4:37 am

add Mota to my list...

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Sat Apr 30, 2005 7:09 am

Originally posted by nydownunder:

quote:Originally posted by mulberry:

I think we should start a thread just for nydownunder...every time I feel down about my players he pops up with another math saying and makes me feel better....props dude, you are one smart mofo...can I hire you next season as a predraft consultant so you can show me how to use all this math stuff to rank the players? Thanks for the compliment Mulberry! All you need to do is read Moneyball (which I presume everyone here already has) and study for the CFA (ie Portfolfio Mgmt & Statistics).

The thought/belief in mean reversion is great as long as MLB managers feel the same way with marginal players/starters. If not, you can't buy and hold. You must start to try and time the market (lineup swaps). that's when things start unraveling and you start taking riskier bets (moves). [/QUOTE]Moneyball is for wimps... mean reversion is a weak attempt to explain bad picks

I use a Ouija board.

Dyv

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Sat Apr 30, 2005 7:17 am

[/QUOTE]Moneyball is for wimps... mean reversion is a weak attempt to explain bad picks

I use a Ouija board.

Dyv [/QB][/quote]

Mean Reversion goes both ways and one doesn't hope for such if they have drafted a bad team. You'd prefer that your team disproves such rational.

...I'm sure you have read Moneyball 5 times already.

[ April 30, 2005, 01:22 PM: Message edited by: nydownunder ]

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sat Apr 30, 2005 9:23 am

Ouija? that is so scientific, I just pick names out of a hat...

Well, finally, Freel decides to steal a base. For my team which was supposed to be leading the league in SB (see team throop and davis in LV Leauge 6), we haven't been stealing much...

Spy