The REAL Dyv team

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:25 pm

Sorry, I told you I rushed out of Vegas ... I had Jacque Jones instead of Richard Hidalgo.

That should help my batting avg. and stolen bases with minimal impact on my power... I knew something didn't seem quite right.

Also the 2b/ss I couldn't remember was Ty Wiggington

Anyone with new projections? NYdownunder or KJ or anyone?

C: Olivo, Todd Greene

1b: Delgado

2b: Jimenez

3b: Lowell

SS: C. Guillen

1/3: Blake

2/S: Wiggington ( or Biggio)

OF: Abreu, Sheffield, Luis Gonzalez, Jacque Jones, Berkman

DH: Bonds

(weight add 30% Ibanez for Berkman's absence and 15% Vinny Castilla for Bond's (first) absence)

SP: Prior, Halladay, Garcia, Marquis, Orlando Hernandez, Dave Williams

RP: Guardado, Takatsu, Ayala

Bench: Wily Mo Pena, (Biggio), (Vinny Castilla), Runelvys Hernandez, (Ibanez), Wily Tavarez, Brandon League

Thanks - sorry for the screw up.

Dave

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:27 pm

Originally posted by Dyv:

Sorry, I told you I rushed out of Vegas ... I had Jacque Jones instead of Richard Hidalgo.

That should help my batting avg. and stolen bases with minimal impact on my power... I knew something didn't seem quite right.

Also the 2b/ss I couldn't remember was Ty Wiggington

Anyone with new projections? NYdownunder or KJ or anyone?

C: Olivo, Todd Greene

1b: Delgado

2b: Jimenez

3b: Lowell

SS: C. Guillen

1/3: Blake

2/S: Wiggington ( or Biggio)

OF: Abreu, Sheffield, Luis Gonzalez, Jacque Jones, Berkman

DH: Bonds

(weight add 30% Ibanez for Berkman's absence and 15% Vinny Castilla for Bond's (first) absence)

SP: Prior, Halladay, Garcia, Marquis, Orlando Hernandez, Dave Williams

RP: Guardado, Takatsu, Ayala

Bench: Wily Mo Pena, (Biggio), (Vinny Castilla), Runelvys Hernandez, (Ibanez), Wily Tavarez, Brandon League

Thanks - sorry for the screw up.

Dave lol, I'll revise. Adding Wigginton probably hurts you.

Revised, you drop from #32 down to #39 overall and lose 3.5 lge points.

[ March 21, 2005, 08:35 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:28 pm

Probably, leave at Biggio then - he'll be 2b by end of April

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:36 pm

Originally posted by Dyv:

Probably, leave at Biggio then - he'll be 2b by end of April

Both were downgrades on my numbers, Jones for Hidalgo, and Wiggi for Biggio; keep Biggio in there and cut the loss in half.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:39 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Dyv:

Probably, leave at Biggio then - he'll be 2b by end of April

Both were downgrades on my numbers, Jones for Hidalgo, and Wiggi for Biggio; keep Biggio in there and cut the loss in half. [/QUOTE]Really? I had Jacque producing a couple more runs, 1 less HR, 2 less RBI's, 10 more SB and hitting 20 points higher. Biggio clearly gets the start in front of Wiggington anyway

Thanks Kevin

Dyv

Head 2 Head · Post by **Head 2 Head** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:50 pm

Dave - Looks like about seven first five round guys. Where did Bonds fall to? I have Abrue #5, Sheff #19 (3/6 chi 4). Two top 20 plus Bonds sounds like a great start. Our only overlap is Jimenez, which I took in the 13th (too early), but Love Dunn and think that D'A will take second on some of those 3,000 pitches Dunn will see. When they throw low and away breaking balls - I expect D'A to improve his SB%. He may even score a few times via Dunn HR.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:58 pm

Originally posted by Dyv:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Dyv:

Probably, leave at Biggio then - he'll be 2b by end of April

Both were downgrades on my numbers, Jones for Hidalgo, and Wiggi for Biggio; keep Biggio in there and cut the loss in half. [/QUOTE]Really? I had Jacque producing a couple more runs, 1 less HR, 2 less RBI's, 10 more SB and hitting 20 points higher. Biggio clearly gets the start in front of Wiggington anyway

Thanks Kevin

Dyv [/QUOTE]Hidalgo 265 31-5 78-80

J Jones 275 20-11 73-70

Caveat - I project every player myself, so any other ranking is likely to be different.

Hidalgo hitting in the 5 spot for Texas leads to better run prodcn than Jones in Min's 6 slot, even after assuming Hidalgo misses 3 wks of the season vs 1 for Jones.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 3:14 pm

Originally posted by Head 2 Head:

Dave - Looks like about seven first five round guys. Where did Bonds fall to? I have Abrue #5, Sheff #19 (3/6 chi 4). Two top 20 plus Bonds sounds like a great start. Our only overlap is Jimenez, which I took in the 13th (too early), but Love Dunn and think that D'A will take second on some of those 3,000 pitches Dunn will see. When they throw low and away breaking balls - I expect D'A to improve his SB%. He may even score a few times via Dunn HR. I took Bonds in the 2nd round - 25th Overall. IT was other talent that fell to me. If I could do it all over again I would have pushed on Bonds a bit. I got Sheffield at #36

Dave

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 3:42 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

I project every player myself, so any other ranking is likely to be different. duke - for whatever reason my numbers didn't like your players. care to post the projections for your players?

Head 2 Head · Post by **Head 2 Head** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 2:36 am

Duke - My Hidalgo & J.Jones numbers look alot like yours You have 14 r&bi more for Hidalgo, I have 15. We both have +6 SB for Jones and I am giving Jones 13 points in BA vs 10 by you. The real difference is HR where you have Hidalgo by 11 (31-20) and I have only 4 (26-22). I do my own numbers and end up about 40 runs 35 rbis short on the dozen(ish) hitters per team. However as Dave projects, I can see J.Jones hitting 20 points higher but the 10 extra steals is a reach (IMO)unless Hidalgo doesn't run at all.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 3:53 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

I project every player myself, so any other ranking is likely to be different. duke - for whatever reason my numbers didn't like your players. care to post the projections for your players? [/QUOTE]Sure - I could use a dose of criticism this morning.

Avg R Rbi Hr Sb

0.289 1093 1104 299 117

Johnny Estrada 0.290 49 59 8 0

Matt LeCroy 0.280 33 52 13 0

Paul Konerko 0.285 93 106 33 1

Corey Koskie 0.275 67 75 24 9

Garrett Atkins 0.310 76 91 16 2

Placido Polanco 0.305 75 65 13 8

Carlos Guillen 0.300 90 64 19 12

Khalil Greene 0.280 74 74 20 6

Carl Crawford 0.300 100 57 14 57

Carlos Lee 0.300 100 94 27 12

Andruw Jones 0.280 97 108 34 6

Pat Burrell 0.280 85 102 32 2

Dustan Mohr 0.290 80 76 23 1

Josh Phelps 0.260 74 81 23 1

Era Whip IP K W Sv

3.606 1.219 1323 1204 95 83

Jason Schmidt 2.90 1.05 204 215 19 0

Oliver Perez 3.25 1.20 189 221 13 0

Freddy Garcia 3.95 1.24 211 174 16 0

Bronson Arroyo 4.15 1.25 195 152 15 0

Esteban Loizia 3.90 1.32 186 138 11 0

Bruce Chen 4.00 1.30 148 119 10 0

Eric Gagne 2.40 1.00 65 87 6 35

Mike Adams 3.30 1.27 65 51 2 30

Greg Aquino 3.90 1.35 60 47 3 18

[ March 22, 2005, 10:01 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 3:59 am

Originally posted by Head 2 Head:

Duke - My Hidalgo & J.Jones numbers look alot like yours You have 14 r&bi more for Hidalgo, I have 15. We both have +6 SB for Jones and I am giving Jones 13 points in BA vs 10 by you. The real difference is HR where you have Hidalgo by 11 (31-20) and I have only 4 (26-22). I do my own numbers and end up about 40 runs 35 rbis short on the dozen(ish) hitters per team. However as Dave projects, I can see J.Jones hitting 20 points higher but the 10 extra steals is a reach (IMO)unless Hidalgo doesn't run at all. My proj for Hidalgo HR's is based on 1 hr per 16 ab, about the mid-point of the last couple seasons, (1/19) and his peak season in 2000 (1/12). I think he's due for a good year which should be even better playing in Texas. ... but your numbers do sound very much in the ballpark with what I'm thinking.

[ March 22, 2005, 10:05 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 5:06 am

Duke - quick hits (without looking at my numbers)...

lecroy BA LOWER

guillen ALL STATS LOWER

greene NO CHANCE FOR 20 HR

burrell (WILDCARD. MY STATS ARE 10% LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD.)

morh WON'T GET ENOUGH PT TO JUSTIFY THOSE STATS

schmidt - with bonds hurt...no chance for 19 wins

perez - my stats are lower due to his health

garcia - don't like in that ballpark. high whip may be on the horizon

loizia - he was undraftable for me. whip/era WILL be higher. proably a lot higher

chen - my nubers are lower due to no certainity about the # of starts

Adams 30 saves and aquino 18 saves. those are probably the absolute best case scenerios you are banking on. everything has to go right for that to happen. i'd guess maybe a 24/12 split is more to my liking.

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:07 am

Mohr has just over 1,000 lifetime ABs and hit 29 homeruns. It will be a cold day in you know where before he hits 23 homeruns in a single season.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:32 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Duke - quick hits (without looking at my numbers)...

lecroy BA LOWER

guillen ALL STATS LOWER

greene NO CHANCE FOR 20 HR

burrell (WILDCARD. MY STATS ARE 10% LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD.)

morh WON'T GET ENOUGH PT TO JUSTIFY THOSE STATS

schmidt - with bonds hurt...no chance for 19 wins

perez - my stats are lower due to his health

garcia - don't like in that ballpark. high whip may be on the horizon

loizia - he was undraftable for me. whip/era WILL be higher. proably a lot higher

chen - my nubers are lower due to no certainity about the # of starts

Adams 30 saves and aquino 18 saves. those are probably the absolute best case scenerios you are banking on. everything has to go right for that to happen. i'd guess maybe a 24/12 split is more to my liking. Thx for the input. If Schmidt is healthy I think he does 19 w 1/2 a season of Bonds. F Garcia - if he keeps the ball on the ground, which I recall he does, and with a better defense this yr, he may surprise you. Sox stadium plays as a high ERA just bec of HRs. Loiaza - I get the '03 version or I cut him, Chen looking like the starter, Adams and Aquino, agreed, but with 3 closers I can always sit one to bulk up K/Ws.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:34 am

Originally posted by Plymouth:

Mohr has just over 1,000 lifetime ABs and hit 29 homeruns. It will be a cold day in you know where before he hits 23 homeruns in a single season. All I can say is ... Welcome to Coors field. If he gets 480 ABs I think he'll be close to 23, getting ABs is the real question.

Goggles Pisano · Post by **Goggles Pisano** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:27 pm

Anyone who projects Burrell to hit anywhere near .280 is smoking crack from 2002. Face it guys, he is not that good.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:46 pm

Originally posted by Goggles Pisano:

Anyone who projects Burrell to hit anywhere near .280 is smoking crack from 2002. Face it guys, he is not that good. Let's see, he's 28 years old, he's hitting .452 this Spring, and he was hitting .276 before the break last year before spiraling after a wrist injury. And... hey, where's my crack pipe!

Evil Empire · Post by **Evil Empire** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 2:59 am

Never mind that spring crap. We all know it means nothing. That being said .280 is best case scenario.