continuing with the draft day commentary ...
I go into every draft/auction expecting to win. I know I won’t actually win every league I play in, but I still expect to win when I sit down at the draft table. Same as the last three seasons in the NFBC's main event. And therein lies the problem. In three years, I haven’t won my league in the main event, and to be honest, haven’t even come close. (Am I sounding too much like Todd so far, I hope I'm not uncounsciously plagarizing him). Anywayyy ... I’ve done well in my auction leagues using the exact same projections, and the same general strategy – draft a balanced team while getting the most value I can out of each pick.
So what is up with the draft leagues? After three years, I've decided it’s more than just bad luck. Time for a change. Even though I really didn’t know how I would change, I knew it was time for a fresh approach.
For the first time this year, I decided to seek a partner for one of my teams. The infamous Quahogs and I, even though we have yet to meet in person agreed to co-finance and map out a strategy for an Ultimate Auction team that I would then acquire in LV while he drafted his own team in the NY Ultimate. “Q” has done very well in draft leagues during his time in the NFBC, while I’ve had auction success, and I think we were both hoping to gain a little insight into each others’ methods. What I discovered after a few weeks of bouncing ideas back and forth via email, was that even though we had a lot in common when it came to many individual players that we both believed good values, and thus players to target, our thought process was very different when it came to assembling a team. For me, the light bulb went on when I switched gears and starting thinking over my main draft team – I knew then how my approach would be different.
Having always approached drafts from the perspective of getting players for less than value (the auction perspective), I could never really allow myself to draft a player earlier than I thought he should go. My thinking was, “why pay full price for a player, because even if you lose a player you really want, another below-value player will slide to you?” Well, that works great in an auction where you can control your picks: when a shortage at a certain position develops you can justify “paying up” for a player, knowing that he is the best “remaining value”, and thus avoid getting stuck, uncomfortably, with dead weight at certain positions. No such luck in a draft. Once a shortage starts to develop in a draft, it can turn into a full-blown drought by the time your pick rolls around. So this year for the draft, I decided to scrap my auction mentality, and instead focus on getting players I felt good about it, even if I took them right where the consensus was, or even sooner in some cases ... on to the draft ...
I wanted a late pick, what I got was #6, one of my last choices. Why? Even though many had focused on the huge drop-off at 2b after Chase Utley, the reality was there were plenty of solid 2b value picks later in the draft. Not so at SS, this to me was the actual scarcity-position this season. I also didn’t want to chase speed with the one-dimensional players later in the draft, so getting Jimmy Rollins became my top priority. The old auction-minded me would say, too bad, you can’t take Jimmy at #6 when guys with more dollar value (Crawford, Beltran) could still be on the board. But the new me considered it, mapped out a few scenarios, and I liked what I saw. I also enjoyed the fact that it could throw the back end of the table for a loop, since it was becoming obvious that more and more people were targeting Rollins. When I called out Rollins with the 6th pick, I would have bet anyone in the room that no one else would take him this early. I think I was right, and I also got the response I expected with a smirk from one player near the end, and a full-on grimace from another. And I felt good about it.
In the second I took Abreu for his balance and what should be outstanding run production from the 3 hole for a stacked NY lineup. Next I went back to the well at SS, taking Bill Hall, putting more pressure on the already weak SS pool. Perhaps too soon, but having been liberated in the 1st round I could care less. Next I took McCann, as I did not want to have the usual holes in my lineup at C that many teams end up with. I followed that with Felix Hernandez in the 5th. A round too soon? Yeah, so what … sue me! Next up I grab a closer, Francisco Cordero, another target but I think I’m finally back to getting guys where they should go – look, I can’t go nuts for 3 hours can I? Then a couple value picks roll in – Helton in the 7th, Rolen in the 8th. Now get a couple of solid guys – Overbay and Cuddyer, and my offense is looking formidable. Round it out with under-appreciated Russell Martin in the 11th and my offense has no worries at this point.
Closers had been flying off the board, and I’m surprised that Dempster has lasted even into the 12th, as there is no one else left with a closer’s job on the board – another value, at least in this league. Six of my next nine are pitchers, and I’m quite pleased that I’ve been able to build my offense while mostly ignoring pitching, but still acquire Vazquez, Maddux, Bonser, Hudson, Hensley and Duke between the 14th and 21st rounds.
Offensive strategy in a nutshell – acquire a strong infield and strong catchers, while assembling a late-game OF of quality players with issues, and thus potential values.
Pitching strategy – get an ace and a top closer, then risk getting solid pitching values late with the understanding that offense will carry the team.
I think I accomplished my plan … now will it translate into success ??
C – McCann, R Martin
1b – Helton, Overbay
3b – Rolen, Braun
2b – Iguchi, Kennedy
Ss – Rollins, B Hall
Of – Abreu, Cuddyer, Alou, Blake, Kubel, L Gonzalez, Encarnacion
Dh – Gomes
SP – F Hernandez, J Vazquez, Maddux, Bonser, Hensley, Duke, W Miller, Owings
RP – F Cordero, Dempster, D Hermanson