Number 1 Pick?

Nutty Scrats · Post by **Nutty Scrats** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 1:23 pm

Ok! I know Pujol's is the concensus number 1 pick but I am looking for anyone who wants to pipe in and convince me why Pujol's isn't the number one pick and who should be and why? I had the discussion with several people at the main event and can see both points. I like Soriano because he gives me the steals along with the hr's. Is it that detramental to your offense if you take someone else at #1 than Pujols? I flip flop back on forth on this. Thanks in advance.

Nevadaman · Post by **Nevadaman** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 1:34 pm

I took Pujols #1 in the Ultimate, but I'm starting to have concerns. I just saw a picture posted and he's lost a ton of weight and looks more like a utility infielder than a home run hitter. He has 53 Spring AB's without a home run and looks like crap. I don't know what to make of this! Was he on steroids and is now off them after signing the huge contract? I had almost convinced myself to take Reyes who I think is going to have an unbelievable year. At this point I'm just crossing my fingers and hoping for the best!

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 1:41 pm

Another reason to not like Pujols (besides the fact that he's not on any of my teams): Have you seen the Cardinals lineup lately? Pujols could easily get the Bonds IBB treatment in 2007.

If the draft were held today, and with apologies to bjoak, I would likely hold my breath and take...Jose Reyes.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 1:48 pm

Originally posted by King of Queens:

Another reason to not like Pujols (besides the fact that he's not on any of my teams): Have you seen the Cardinals lineup lately? Pujols could easily get the Bonds IBB treatment in 2007.

If the draft were held today, and with apologies to bjoak, I would likely hold my breath and take...Jose Reyes. You are a smart man. Reyes should have gone number one. Beltran is a better pick than Soriano. He will beat him in 4 out of 5 catagories and he could get more steals if runs this year. Soriano's edge was when he was a second baseman. The Mets might have 3 players who go in the top 6 picks next year.

[ March 23, 2007, 07:49 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 2:05 pm

I like Reyes.But,I would not take a two cat. player number one in the draft.Year before last he hit .273 with 7 home runs in 696 AB.I am not convinced that the power spike is real.

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 2:13 pm

Pujols is the #1 pick and deserves it. This reminds me of last year when 75% of owners made the Arod mistake at #1. Last year the big reason to take Arod was the weak St. Louis lineup. It doesn't matter. Pujols is that good! Assuming Reyes and Soriano are healthy all year, Pujols is a lock to be a top 3 player at years end. Reyes could hit easily hit .270. If he hits .270 his sbs still make him a top 15 player but not a top 3.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 2:13 pm

Originally posted by Nutty Scrat:

Ok! I know Pujol's is the concensus number 1 pick but I am looking for anyone who wants to pipe in and convince me why Pujol's isn't the number one pick and who should be and why? I had the discussion with several people at the main event and can see both points. I like Soriano because he gives me the steals along with the hr's. Is it that detramental to your offense if you take someone else at #1 than Pujols? I flip flop back on forth on this. Thanks in advance. I'll give you some of the same advice given me. If you think you want to take a guy and you like him for whatever reason, then take him. Your the one who has to live with your decision and who cares what others think. Year 1 Artie Rastalli took Beltran first and said people made fun of him for not taking Pujols. He got a big check for 100 grand though. BTW he took him for the same reasons you mention sb's along with hr's. So who cares about the guys that made fun of him. Take who you want and good luck.

Cherokee Nation · Post by **Cherokee Nation** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 2:23 pm

I have the 1st pick this Sunday, $ 250 Sat 3....

I'm seriously considering Reyes, not so much because of Pujols, but rather, because I'm starting to believe Reyes is gonna hit 25 HRs and steal 75 bases ( health providing )....

but I'm still thinking on it

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 2:28 pm

I think Pujols is a definite number one but I would rather have the 3rd or 4th pick any day of the week and take Reyes or Arod.

You get a lot more control in the 2nd round and are not stuck on the end for the entire draft.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 2:41 pm

Originally posted by DiamondKing:

I like Reyes.But,I would not take a two cat. player number one in the draft.Year before last he hit .273 with 7 home runs in 696 AB.I am not convinced that the power spike is real. Are you drafting your team based 2005 stats? Didn't Reyes have 19 homers and 81 RBI last year? I don't see two catagories. I see help across the board.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 3:08 pm

I would go Reyes if i was picking 1st today, i agree with shawn and cheroke .I think Reyes can hit 22 to 26 homers and go over 70 steals, he's already running like a madman this spring.I also think with a few years under his belt that he is going to be a 300 hitter.I would still have Puljos 2nd , but would rather pick 5 or 6 and get the speed with the power.IM also a big Beltran guy , picking him 7th in the main , 6th in the Ultimate and 42 bucks in the national league auction, speed and power.

fandango · Post by **fandango** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 3:44 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I would go Reyes if i was picking 1st today, i agree with shawn and cheroke .I think Reyes can hit 22 to 26 homers and go over 70 steals, he's already running like a madman this spring.I also think with a few years under his belt that he is going to be a 300 hitter.I would still have Puljos 2nd , but would rather pick 5 or 6 and get the speed with the power.IM also a big Beltran guy , picking him 7th in the main , 6th in the Ultimate and 42 bucks in the national league auction, speed and power. just hope Beltran doesnt look like he did 2 years ago.....Yuck...

And as far as Pujols not hitting homeruns in Spring Training, he never does...he is saving himself for the season..remember he has 6 monster years under his belt, he is no fly-by-night...he is an alltime great!

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:24 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by DiamondKing:

I like Reyes.But,I would not take a two cat. player number one in the draft.Year before last he hit .273 with 7 home runs in 696 AB.I am not convinced that the power spike is real. Are you drafting your team based 2005 stats? Didn't Reyes have 19 homers and 81 RBI last year? I don't see two catagories. I see help across the board. [/QUOTE]UM,We do not use last years stats either.My own opinion is last year was a power peak for Reyes.Kind of why we have a draft,we all have our own opinion.I would rather have a Furcal in the third round over Reyes number one overall.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:55 am

Beltran worries me more than most I have talked to this season. He has hit under .276 4 out of the last 5 years, and he has been under 20 stolen bases the last two. I can't get 2005 numbers out of my head. So I wouldn't even put him in the discussion. I would prefer pick 3 or 4, and take Reyes or Crawford. At #1, I'd still take Pujols. At age 27 maybe Pujols will have a breakout year.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 2:16 am

Originally posted by DiamondKing:

I like Reyes.But,I would not take a two cat. player number one in the draft.Year before last he hit .273 with 7 home runs in 696 AB.I am not convinced that the power spike is real. You call it a power spike (Shandlerism). Isn't it just maturation? Lets take a look at your guy Furcal, in his first full year, he was 23 years old, had 636 at bats and hit eight home runs. The next year he hit 15 and since then has hit 14, 12, and 15. Looking back, that first 15 homer year was not a spike but just plain old fashioned development.

Reyes is at the same stage that Furcal was at back then, it wouldn't surprise me to see his power production peak into the 20's, making him far more than a two category player.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 6:21 am

Originally posted by DiamondKing:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by DiamondKing:

I like Reyes.But,I would not take a two cat. player number one in the draft.Year before last he hit .273 with 7 home runs in 696 AB.I am not convinced that the power spike is real. Are you drafting your team based 2005 stats? Didn't Reyes have 19 homers and 81 RBI last year? I don't see two catagories. I see help across the board. [/QUOTE]UM,We do not use last years stats either.My own opinion is last year was a power peak for Reyes.Kind of why we have a draft,we all have our own opinion.I would rather have a Furcal in the third round over Reyes number one overall. [/QUOTE]I'm the last person to think that spring training means anything, but it has to be encouraging to see Reyes show the kind of power he has. I don't think he'll go on a tear but I think it is good evidence that last year was real. He already has almost 1/4 of the homers he hit all last year in only 57 at bats! Am I crazy?

Bobby J · Post by **Bobby J** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 6:51 am

I still think Pujols has to go number #1, the thing that would concern me with Reyes, if he is trying to hit more homers, doesn't it change his swing and he will now have more of an upward cut, decreasing BA w/more fly balls and less times on base. I am sure he beat out more than his share of grounders that would normally be an out for someone with less speed. That being said, i am in the same boat with most and pick 3-6 and let someone fall to me and being in better position for round 2. Would you rather have a line for Reyes of .270/100/25/70/45 or .290/130/15/55/70

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 7:11 am

Originally posted by Bobby J:

I still think Pujols has to go number #1, the thing that would concern me with Reyes, if he is trying to hit more homers, doesn't it change his swing and he will now have more of an upward cut, decreasing BA w/more fly balls and less times on base. I am sure he beat out more than his share of grounders that would normally be an out for someone with less speed. That being said, i am in the same boat with most and pick 3-6 and let someone fall to me and being in better position for round 2. Would you rather have a line for Reyes of .270/100/25/70/45 or .290/130/15/55/70 I guess you don't see improvement in him. I'll take a .300+, 130 runs, 20+ Hrs, 70 RBI, and 60+ steals to the banks. If he steal 80+, he will be putting up Ricky Henderson type numbers with a better batting average. The wise guys would take him number one for sure next year.

[ May 01, 2007, 10:23 AM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

It Takes A Geek · Post by **It Takes A Geek** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 7:19 am

if you think Pujols is now underweight and unlikely to reach prior levels, that;s one thing. I haven't seen him in person myself so I don't have any good way to gauge that. Most likely, Pujols will substantially outperform Reyes in 4 categories, and Reyes will substantially outperform Pujols in the precious commodity of SBs. So isn't the key question how much do you value SBs ? And what do you do with the likelihood that Pujols will steal a few himself -- not a ton, but if you are valuing steals they are probably worth more than reyes' hrs. The thing is that reyes get so many sbs, and plays ss. His steals alone may mean you don't have to pick more speed. My personal guess is Pujols is worth more if you are trying to win your league (across the board stats), but reyes might be worth more if you are trying to win 100k because you can get the power elsewhere and the steals count more when you are racking up points among 360 teams than when the maximum points in the category is only 15. Of course, I am talking off the top of my head without running any numbers and can only hope I am not, in effect, wearing a mu-mu.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 7:38 am

Originally posted by It Takes A Geek:

if you think Pujols is now underweight and unlikely to reach prior levels, that;s one thing. I haven't seen him in person myself so I don't have any good way to gauge that. Most likely, Pujols will substantially outperform Reyes in 4 categories, and Reyes will substantially outperform Pujols in the precious commodity of SBs. So isn't the key question how much do you value SBs ? And what do you do with the likelihood that Pujols will steal a few himself -- not a ton, but if you are valuing steals they are probably worth more than reyes' hrs. The thing is that reyes get so many sbs, and plays ss. His steals alone may mean you don't have to pick more speed. My personal guess is Pujols is worth more if you are trying to win your league (across the board stats), but reyes might be worth more if you are trying to win 100k because you can get the power elsewhere and the steals count more when you are racking up points among 360 teams than when the maximum points in the category is only 15. Of course, I am talking off the top of my head without running any numbers and can only hope I am not, in effect, wearing a mu-mu. In fact, Pujols does not substantially outperform Reyes in four categories. Reyes had more runs than Pujols. It is a lot easier to find power later than speed so the justification for taking Reyes one is certainly there.

A question I have for the numbers guys out there is this...Is it a lot better having Pujols with 535 ab's hitting .331 than Reyes with 647 ab's hitting .300? On the surface it seems that Pujols numbers would be much better but maybe the extra ab's from Reyes may even it out a bit.

JEagle · Post by **JEagle** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 8:09 am

let's remember that Reyes is still a kid and may only get better..he may be just scratching the surface...he also plays on a team with a far superior lineup..

slopshot · Post by **slopshot** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 8:14 am

i had the fist pick in chicago 3 and took Albert with the fist pick and still ended up with excellent speed with pierre in the 5th and lugo in the 6th phillips inthe 8th and podsednik in the 13th. good power with A.ramirez in 2nd atkins in the 3rd and thome in the 4th

Nutty Scrats · Post by **Nutty Scrats** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 8:16 am

From the Fantasy Sports Magazine projections:

---Pujols--- Reyes--- Soriano

Ave - .329 - .289 - .283

HR --- 45 ---- 16 --- 32

RBI --- 129 --- 79 -- 88

Steals -- 10 -- 62 --- 38

I quess the question would be to get 16 hr's with 62 steals is good and you can probably make up your hr and rbi deficit later in the draft but can you think that you can make up the SB deficit down the road? Soriano sort of gives you the best of all worlds. Maybe a more balance attack across the boards. Some things that make you go hmmmmmmmmm? LOL

baggler · Post by **baggler** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 9:31 am

It's hard to say who's right and who's wrong.... what's important to someone is not important to others....I do believe however that it much easier to make up the power numbers than making up sb's early in the draft....that being said I would have Soriano,Reyes,A-Rod,Pujols in that order

IMO if you can draft some decent average guys with 15-30 steals early you can take on some boppers later with poor average but if you take some decent average guys with power and limited sb's and are looking for sb's later your hurting yourself..

If you got the power and draft a sb guy later your looking at a guy with .270-5-80 -60-30..you hurt yourself in 3/4 cats...when picking up a bopper a little later your looking at .270-25-90-90-5..your hurting yourself in only 2 cats

I wasn't up in the draft but had the same dilemma.. My co-owner and I were in NY League 6... pick 8 who passed on Howard and drafted Guerrero just for that reason... it was real tough..real tough...We just thought it was easier to make up the 20hr's 20rbi's and 20 runs elsewhere elsewhere than the 15-20 sb's and we felt we had a better selection of 1b's later in the draft than of's

We'll probably live to regret it and Howard will outperform Vlad by 25 hr's 30 rbi's and 20 runs's and our other picks will fail to pickup those categories..I'll let everyone know later this year how it worked and if it truly made a difference

I think also that there are many owners out there who believe in the position scarcity theory and sb theory..maybe not as much as they think they do but it will be very prominent in their drafting and philosophy...

With players in the draft available such as Soriano,Reyes,ARod,Crawford,Utley,Sizemore,Holliday,Guerrero,Beltran,Wright,Rollins,H.Ramirez,Jeter,V.Wells,D.Lee,C.Lee...they are top thirty picks for one reason 5 tool potential..

With players in the draft available such as Pujols,Howard,Hafner,Tex,Ortiz,Berkman,Manny,Konerko,Mourneau,Konerko,A.Jones,Dye..they are top thirty picks because of there sure 40-110-120 numbers..power power power

To each their own....great discussion guys

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 11:46 am

Originally posted by Nutty Scrat:

From the Fantasy Sports Magazine projections:

---Pujols--- Reyes--- Soriano

Ave - .329 - .289 - .283

HR --- 45 ---- 16 --- 32

RBI --- 129 --- 79 -- 88

Steals -- 10 -- 62 --- 38

I quess the question would be to get 16 hr's with 62 steals is good and you can probably make up your hr and rbi deficit later in the draft but can you think that you can make up the SB deficit down the road? Soriano sort of gives you the best of all worlds. Maybe a more balance attack across the boards. Some things that make you go hmmmmmmmmm? LOL Greg would be a rich man if he give us the results before the season. If he was in the ball park on half of these numbers, he would be happy. And again Betran has more value than Soriano as an outfielder. By your numbers, Betran will hit for a higher average, more homers, and more RBI. He will be in the range in runs. The only question is the steals. Next year, Soriano might not be in the top 5 outfielders picked.

[ May 01, 2007, 10:27 AM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]