NFBC Random Slot Generator BLOWS

[Chest Rockwell]

To me, this ends the conversation:

"anyone should be able to draft and win from any spot"

"We all trust the NFBC with our money yet some people don't trust them with a random draft spot generator that barely has any impact (if any at all) on the final results... Really?"

I dont think it is a matter of trust. If there is an issue I would bet it is unintentional. I highly, highly doubt there is an issue. The good news is it is not that difficult when things settle down to evaluate if there was an issue. If you look at the raw data and see questionable trends you dig deeper. If you don't you just wasted 30 minutes of someone's time. I am not in the camp of there is an issue here. I am in the camp of it is easy to disprove there is an issue and God forbid you find one deal with it openly and honestly and get it fixed.

[KJ Duke]

I don't mistrust the NFBC in any way, but I do think they use a flawed random generator algorithm.

From my days of working with slot machine manufacturers, I know that true random generators are not as simplistic as the online random-gen sites or "randomizer" excel formulas. Those who develop random algos and complicated pay tables for slots (that need to pass regulatory scrutiny over hundreds of thousands or millions of reps) are highly paid/sought-after engineers and mathematicians.

A good random generator should not result in predictable patterns, and year after year I've seen such patterns with nfbc/nffc and all of their competitors in football. If you get a particular draft slot/ KDS assignment number, I believe you are more than even odds to get that same number again that season. That's my observance from having many teams each season for more than a decade on multiple operator sites, and from talking to others that play in a lot of leagues. For anyone that drafts only a couple teams each season, I doubt they'd notice. I don't know how or why, perhaps your player ID number biases a flaw/pattern in the number generator.

None of the operators I've talked to want to address it either because it's convenient as is for them, or maybe they just don't believe me. Again, I don't think there's any intentional bias here, but I do believe it's a flawed system and would much rather see names drawn randomly from a hat or ping ball machine, or whatever, as these methods would not be impacted by flawed computer code and instead rely on the integrity of the operator (which I trust more than their computer code).

[Fourslot40]

I'm not passing judgment either way. I'm a big fan of all things NFBC and there are never trust issues with me. I really don't mind where I draft from because we all can formulate a draft plan from any spot in the order.

However, If we are looking a examples of a possible flaw, I do know that I received the 14th spot in a main which was my 14th spot in my KDS queue. In a room full of veteran players, I would think those looking for a top 5 pick might soon thereafter in the queue switch to the back end of the KDS list.... or there are some who would target the back area initially. I was surprised at 14 of 14, but certainly not disappointed because as I mentioned, there is a plan from any spot. Maybe it was a fluke, I don't know.

[Baseball Furies]

I don't mistrust the NFBC in any way, but I do think they use a flawed random generator algorithm.

From my days of working with slot machine manufacturers, I know that true random generators are not as simplistic as the online random-gen sites or "randomizer" excel formulas. Those who develop random algos and complicated pay tables for slots (that need to pass regulatory scrutiny over hundreds of thousands or millions of reps) are highly paid/sought-after engineers and mathematicians.

A good random generator should not result in predictable patterns, and year after year I've seen such patterns with nfbc/nffc and all of their competitors in football. If you get a particular draft slot/ KDS assignment number, I believe you are more than even odds to get that same number again that season. That's my observance from having many teams each season for more than a decade on multiple operator sites, and from talking to others that play in a lot of leagues. For anyone that drafts only a couple teams each season, I doubt they'd notice. I don't know how or why, perhaps your player ID number biases a flaw/pattern in the number generator.

None of the operators I've talked to want to address it either because it's convenient as is for them, or maybe they just don't believe me. Again, I don't think there's any intentional bias here, but I do believe it's a flawed system and would much rather see names drawn randomly from a hat or ping ball machine, or whatever, as these methods would not be impacted by flawed computer code and instead rely on the integrity of the operator (which I trust more than their computer code).

Great stuff as always, KJ. Could not agree more. And for all of the naysayers who are few and far between on this, let's all keep in mind that things do change and SHOULD change once in a while. I get that some of us have become soft and comfy getting their drafts spots five full days in advance, but you'll have a hard time, making the argument on here that:

A. You can't win from drafting from any spot at anytime regardless of when you know your spot
B. You need to receive that spot days in advance to feel comfortable and secure going in to a particular draft
C. The old adage of the "best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry" isn't in full effect going into any of these Main
Events with the added variable of Murphy's Law to go along with process anyway
D. The entertainment value of the excitement, strategy, suspense, anticipation, and energy of having your spot pulled
live would be less enjoyable than that of getting it in a system-generated email while you wait home alone in your
parents' basement
E. Mostly you're just being a big pussy if you're saying you can't compete or won't compete because spots are going to be
drawn live as opposed to days in advance, or better yet due to the inconvenience of having to move your shit around to a
different spot at the table other than where you had originally put it down! Are fucking kidding me with that shit, Juprinka?!!
I know 20 lb. cats that aren't as big of pussies as you are! Tell you what, I'll carry your shit around for you
next year until you know where you'll be sitting, and then bring it all over to you with a fruity umbrella drink to boot!

Anything that will help to innovate and make the game better especially the live events and the live event experience should be considered and pursued for next year. And now is the time, not once the football season starts. Let's not forget there was a time that a lot of how we go about the live events now has been changed over the years, and all for the better. Maybe it wasn't perceived or even liked that way at first, but we couldn't think of going back to the old ways ever again once we all got used to the changes.

[Greg Ambrosius]

I don't mistrust the NFBC in any way, but I do think they use a flawed random generator algorithm.

From my days of working with slot machine manufacturers, I know that true random generators are not as simplistic as the online random-gen sites or "randomizer" excel formulas. Those who develop random algos and complicated pay tables for slots (that need to pass regulatory scrutiny over hundreds of thousands or millions of reps) are highly paid/sought-after engineers and mathematicians.

A good random generator should not result in predictable patterns, and year after year I've seen such patterns with nfbc/nffc and all of their competitors in football. If you get a particular draft slot/ KDS assignment number, I believe you are more than even odds to get that same number again that season. That's my observance from having many teams each season for more than a decade on multiple operator sites, and from talking to others that play in a lot of leagues. For anyone that drafts only a couple teams each season, I doubt they'd notice. I don't know how or why, perhaps your player ID number biases a flaw/pattern in the number generator.

None of the operators I've talked to want to address it either because it's convenient as is for them, or maybe they just don't believe me. Again, I don't think there's any intentional bias here, but I do believe it's a flawed system and would much rather see names drawn randomly from a hat or ping ball machine, or whatever, as these methods would not be impacted by flawed computer code and instead rely on the integrity of the operator (which I trust more than their computer code).

You're a smarter man than me, but any consistencies on what you're seeing would have to be the same code and we now have two different companies using two different codes over the last year. This is the first year of the SportsHub random draft spot analyzer after several years of using the STATS code. We will certainly look over the code here as much as needed to make sure it is as random as possible and coded correctly, but again this year really can't be compared to past years because the companies running these "lottery" processes are different.

We all want the best random analyzer and I'm not sure why we don't already have it. We'll look at code and re-look at code and re-look again. We show you the final random selections on your team site right now and then show you what pick you got from KDS after that. We are being as transparent as can be. Like John said, he was surprised he got the 14th pick when it was 14th on his KDS list. But he can easily go to his League Home page now and see that the other 13 owners randomly selected ahead of him also had 14 near the bottom of their lists and he was randomly selected after them. It explains how you got 14. I'm not sure any other high-stakes site is as transparent as we are.

We want everyone to get the draft spots they want, but that's not always possible, even with better code. Sometimes the random gods don't favor you over other owners. But hopefully your skill wins out. Good luck all and thanks for the smart posts here.

[Greg Ambrosius]

And just my two cents: Picking draft spots on the spot is ideal for certain private leagues where all of the owners agree to it. We do that in the NFFC Platinum League where the entry fee is $20,000 per team. It's very cool, but that format isn't for every league.

Heck, we bid for draft spots using FAAB in the NFBC Platinum League and that is a very cool process. Every unique idea can be implemented in private leagues when all of the owners agree to it. The Iron Balls process works in New York for the Ultimate League and it could work in other private leagues as well.

But you're not going to get every owner in the Main Event to agree to it and I wouldn't even propose it. Of course people want to prepare for these draft spots and we've whittled that preparation from 7 days to 5 days over the years. Just because you want your Main Event draft spot in advance doesn't mean you're being unmanly. Quite the contrary, you're likely being very smart. There's a lot of money on the line and the majority of the owners want that time to prepare for that spot.

We're not trying to make the show better, we're trying to make the contest better. Giving owners time to prepare for their Main Event spots makes the most sense and won't change anytime soon.

[Gekko]

here we go (AGAIN)...

so far, seven "random" pulls out of the hat this year.

when i was selected out of the hat in each of the 7 leagues: Choice Order: 4, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 14

really?

hopefully my "luck" starts to improve for the remainder of the draft season; however this is beginning to get mind-numbing how "unlucky" the NFBC random slot generator has been (at least to me)

[Deadheadz]

here we go (AGAIN)...

so far, seven "random" pulls out of the hat this year.

when i was selected out of the hat in each of the 7 leagues: Choice Order: 4, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 14

really?

hopefully my "luck" starts to improve for the remainder of the draft season; however this is beginning to get mind-numbing how "unlucky" the NFBC random slot generator has been (at least to me)

KDS “winners” all read The Secret and you did not. Mystery solved.

[KJ Duke]

here we go (AGAIN)...

so far, seven "random" pulls out of the hat this year.

when i was selected out of the hat in each of the 7 leagues: Choice Order: 4, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 14

really?

hopefully my "luck" starts to improve for the remainder of the draft season; however this is beginning to get mind-numbing how "unlucky" the NFBC random slot generator has been (at least to me)

I've done two cutlines.

I drew #4 in the first one.
Second one? #4.

Same non-random generator as every year. For any spot you get, you're more likely to get that spot again in the same year. I've seen for 10+ years.

Manual picks should be happening for high-value leagues like the Main and higher.

If you don't believe me hire a statistics grad student intern and have him run a study on KDS preference allocation doled out by the system. I am highly confident the system will be shown as statistically not random.

[Money]

Greg, Tom and Derik it's time to take notice. The integrity of the game is at stake.

[mdecav]

here we go (AGAIN)...

so far, seven "random" pulls out of the hat this year.

when i was selected out of the hat in each of the 7 leagues: Choice Order: 4, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 14

really?

hopefully my "luck" starts to improve for the remainder of the draft season; however this is beginning to get mind-numbing how "unlucky" the NFBC random slot generator has been (at least to me)

Looks random to me. My five picks have been 1, 2, 6, 13, and 14.

[Gb2715]

No idea what this means but here’s mine from this year.
12 7 6 8 6 3 5 5 11 9 6 10 5 6 5

[Gekko]

This is getting a bit over my head, but here is MIT blurb about “random number generation:

https://engineering.mit.edu/engage/ask ... om-number/


“You can program a machine to generate what can be called “random” numbers, but the machine is always at the mercy of its programming. “On a completely deterministic machine you can’t generate anything you could really call a random sequence of numbers,” says Ward, “because the machine is following the same algorithm to generate them. Typically, that means it starts with a common ‘seed’ number and then follows a pattern.” The results may be sufficiently complex to make the pattern difficult to identify, but because it is ruled by a carefully defined and consistently repeated algorithm, the numbers it produces are not truly random.”

“If you go to an online poker site, for example, and you know the algorithm and seed, you can write a program that will predict the cards that are going to be dealt.”

[mdecav]

If you were to flip a quarter seven times, and six times you got heads and once you got tails, would you consider that to be a fair coin? A binomial probability would say that happens about 5% of the time.

Because that’s basically what’s happened to you: 6 times you were lower than 8th, and once you were higher.

[Gekko]

If you were to flip a quarter seven times, and six times you got heads and once you got tails, would you consider that to be a fair coin? A binomial probability would say that happens about 5% of the time.

Because that’s basically what’s happened to you: 6 times you were lower than 8th, and once you were higher.

Hi Mike - I’m addition to the ones listed above, please see the first post in the thread about last year’s “random” hat pulls:
Draft Champions Express #208 ; Choice Order: 3
Draft Champions Express #261 ; Choice Order: 6
Main Event #644 ; Choice Order: 7
Draft Champions Express #409 ; Choice Order: 7
Draft Champions - 2 Hour #162 ; Choice Order: 7
Main Event #462 ; Choice Order: 8
Draft Champions - 4 Hour #34 ; Choice Order: 8
Draft Champions - 2 Hour #94 ; Choice Order: 9
Draft Champions Express #625 ; Choice Order: 10
Draft Champions Express #599 ; Choice Order: 12
Draft Champions Express #603 ; Choice Order: 13
Auction Championship #438 ; Choice Order: 14
Draft Champions Express #76 ; Choice Order: 14

[DOUGHBOYS]

I guess I have a right to complain. Or do I?
I'll kds 1,2,8,7,6,5,4,3,9,10,11,12,13,14,15 and haven't received 1 or 2 yet in double digit drafts.
Each draft, the odds are 86 percent against me to get one of the two top picks.
Top choice received so far being '6'.
All in all, it's just not a big deal to me.


That said, if the NFBC wants to pay for a truly random generator of a KDS, I know a cute little girl in Florida who does a wonderful job of it.

[Gekko]

Greg - Can you ask IT if the process of choosing owners is truly random for KDS selection? If their answer is “yes”, can they describe how they validated their claim.

I don’t have any expertise in this area; however my results appear skewed a bit, and KJ (who I respect) also expresses some longer term concerns. Has an independent 3rd party validated the process as random? If so, could the results be published?

[Gekko]

I guess I have a right to complain. Or do I?
I'll kds 1,2,8,7,6,5,4,3,9,10,11,12,13,14,15 and haven't received 1 or 2 yet in double digit drafts.

Since you and I both “change” our KDS prior to the lock, I wonder if we get shuffled to the back of the pack for purposes of pulling names and folks who go straight butter are first in line

[mdecav]

If you were to flip a quarter seven times, and six times you got heads and once you got tails, would you consider that to be a fair coin? A binomial probability would say that happens about 5% of the time.

Because that’s basically what’s happened to you: 6 times you were lower than 8th, and once you were higher.

Hi Mike - I’m addition to the ones listed above, please see the first post in the thread about last year’s “random” hat pulls:
Draft Champions Express #208 ; Choice Order: 3
Draft Champions Express #261 ; Choice Order: 6
Main Event #644 ; Choice Order: 7
Draft Champions Express #409 ; Choice Order: 7
Draft Champions - 2 Hour #162 ; Choice Order: 7
Main Event #462 ; Choice Order: 8
Draft Champions - 4 Hour #34 ; Choice Order: 8
Draft Champions - 2 Hour #94 ; Choice Order: 9
Draft Champions Express #625 ; Choice Order: 10
Draft Champions Express #599 ; Choice Order: 12
Draft Champions Express #603 ; Choice Order: 13
Auction Championship #438 ; Choice Order: 14
Draft Champions Express #76 ; Choice Order: 14

So you didn’t pull 1, 2, 4, 5, 11, and 15. This is random. You’re putting too much emphasis on the low numbers because you “value” them higher than the high numbers.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I just chalk it up to bad luck.

Complaints could be lodged that the randomizer is not really random and to use ping pong balls, which would lead to the weight of each ping pong ball being truly the same, which would lead to picking numbers out of a hat, which would lead to is each paper truly the same size in the hat.

Bad luck, the common denominator. Simply not believing that bad luck leads to the criticism of the means of bad luck.

I've sat at a poker table and received bad hand after bad hand.
Blaming the dealer or cards themselves is a thought, but I know in my heart it is just the cards dealt.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg - Can you ask IT if the process of choosing owners is truly random for KDS selection? If their answer is “yes”, can they describe how they validated their claim.

I don’t have any expertise in this area; however my results appear skewed a bit, and KJ (who I respect) also expresses some longer term concerns. Has an independent 3rd party validated the process as random? If so, could the results be published?

Sure, I'll ask for it all. As you can see on your League Home page, we are trying to be as transparent as possible with the draft selection process. We are showing who was randomly picked first through 15th and what draft spot they received. What I want next is the preferred draft spot they received so that I can anonymously list all of the KDS preferences people are posting and what the average draft spot preference was for each league. I have gotten requests from some writers who want this KDS information so that they can show where our top players want to draft from.

But it's also important to show the average draft spot preference received. I did this for football a few years ago when so many owners wanted to move to the back of the draft order and in most cases it was 3.0 or lower. If 12 owners on average get their third preference that's a good system. And hopefully that's the case here. While you aren't randomly getting picked early, you have received your 3rd preference, 9th, 10th, 10th, 10th and 11th. Not ideal, but not the worst.

We'll see if we can get this extra data, but I guarantee the random optimizer doesn't know your name from any other name. They are all mixed together and spit out 1 to 15 with no care of if you're a Hall of Famer or not. But sure, we'll look again and make sure we are doing it right and if we can add even more transparency with the draft spot preference received. Unfortunately, in each draft someone gets pulled first and someone gets pulled last. That's just the fact. It happens no matter what format you use.

[Greg Ambrosius]

No idea what this means but here’s mine from this year.
12 7 6 8 6 3 5 5 11 9 6 10 5 6 5

It means you were randomly selected in the top half 10 out of 15 times. Those who have been randomly selected in the bottom half 10 out of 15 times are made at you. Don't take it personally because you had nothing to do with it -- nor did I -- but that's what it means.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg, Tom and Derik it's time to take notice. The integrity of the game is at stake.

After seeing this I immediately threw myself out of the window of the tallest building in Iola. Fortunately, no building in Iola is taller than one floor and we got 10 inches of snow last night so I landed right where I started. I'm freezing, but I'll live.

So some high-profile owners have received unfavorable random spots and you are saying we are rigging this AGAINST them? We are favoring newer owners or less high-profile owners? Help me understand how we're rigging this to the benefit of who, again?

We have no problem looking at every aspect of draft selections, but to compare the last year of draft spots to the last 10 years makes no sense because we have used different random selection processes between Fanball, STATS and now SportsHub Technologies. Each league is a new 1 in 12 or 1 in 15 shot at your favored picks. Some win that random selection and some lose. But sure, we'll always double check every aspect of the software and do all we can to make it the best it can be.

[Greg Ambrosius]

here we go (AGAIN)...

so far, seven "random" pulls out of the hat this year.

when i was selected out of the hat in each of the 7 leagues: Choice Order: 4, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 14

really?

hopefully my "luck" starts to improve for the remainder of the draft season; however this is beginning to get mind-numbing how "unlucky" the NFBC random slot generator has been (at least to me)

I've done two cutlines.

I drew #4 in the first one.
Second one? #4.

Same non-random generator as every year. For any spot you get, you're more likely to get that spot again in the same year. I've seen for 10+ years.

Manual picks should be happening for high-value leagues like the Main and higher.

If you don't believe me hire a statistics grad student intern and have him run a study on KDS preference allocation doled out by the system. I am highly confident the system will be shown as statistically not random.

I would say two leagues is a small sample size for conclusions like this. Here is what Gaetan Lavoie has gotten in the NFBC Cutline Championship so far as his random selections:

3, 4, 6, 9, 8, 9, 4, 10, 3, 6.

Should he be complaining that in 10 tries he didn't get a single 1 or 2? Or does he complain that only 4 of 10 were in the top half? Or does this show that randomly he landed all over the board?

I get it. Folks want us to check the randomizer and sure we will AGAIN. It's random and it doesn't care what your name is. It just spits out 10 names, 12 names, 15 names and then runs the KDS to give you an even better spot. But we'll keep analyzing the data and being as transparent as possible. That's what we'll do.

[Money]

Greg, Tom and Derik it's time to take notice. The integrity of the game is at stake.

After seeing this I immediately threw myself out of the window of the tallest building in Iola. Fortunately, no building in Iola is taller than one floor and we got 10 inches of snow last night so I landed right where I started. I'm freezing, but I'll live.

So some high-profile owners have received unfavorable random spots and you are saying we are rigging this AGAINST them? We are favoring newer owners or less high-profile owners? Help me understand how we're rigging this to the benefit of who, again?

We have no problem looking at every aspect of draft selections, but to compare the last year of draft spots to the last 10 years makes no sense because we have used different random selection processes between Fanball, STATS and now SportsHub Technologies. Each league is a new 1 in 12 or 1 in 15 shot at your favored picks. Some win that random selection and some lose. But sure, we'll always double check every aspect of the software and do all we can to make it the best it can be.

I have never stated or ever thought that you were rigging the process. What KJ has stated makes a lot of sense. It simply needs to be looked at. The good lord only knows how you attribute to me what you do. Good Luck.