Edwards Bay Fox Pen NYC Tour 2018

[Edwards Kings]

Well…that was interesting.
Let me first tell you, New York really rolled out the red carpet for me. I mean, they even had a parade in my honor! All those people…still, not sure why they were all wearing green, but it was a nice if over the top gesture. I ran as fast as I could all along the parade route to let everyone know how much I appreciated it…even had a police escort running about 20 feet behind me. They lost me when I had to duck into the subway so I could make it to the draft, but they were a great group, not wanting me to leave…shouting “stop asshole!” What a bunch of jokers.



And thanks to Tom and Darik. Great management of the events, which by the way were awesome. Always good to see Tom…Tom…Marvel sucks!



And to everyone in my league, thanks for the never ending headache. Man…these guys were good. There were no slips…no “values”. Nothing got past these guys. Especially great to draft between Michael DeCavalcante and the wildman Roy Ericson. It was good to finally meet Jason Emma and as always catching up, even briefly, with Mark Srebro. Having these guys as one of the competing teams in your league always raises the challenge exponentially.

The man, the myth, the legend…Steve Jupinka. Another guy who makes attending these live events a pleasure. The first time Steve and I were in a league together was the year Steve won it all. Now it is my turn! Great talking with you, Steve.
And Glen Lowy. A true gentleman even if he is a Mets fan. So many events that it was tough to have more than a few brief conversations, but having him in the league really makes this an event like a local league full of long-time friends.

So many more like more great people in the league like Bobby Brendler, Thomas Eshenfelder, Matt Modica, Andy Saxton, Kevin Grady, Marc Perlmutter and of course the rest. Here is hoping you all finish second.

Always great to catch up with a real gentleman, Dan Semsel. Rare chance to catch up with Kent Stermon. Was very fortunate to speak quite a bit with Mike Mager. Dustin Wagner was also in the house and we got to speak, although too briefly. Great catching up with Mark Bendar, another dyed-in-the-wools Mets fan but otherwise a good friend.

And of course Mike Massotto. What a class act. I was in the peanut gallery watching his event…he knows how to put on a draft! Really top notch. Great catching up with you brother!

And I know I have not mentioned so many others like Ante Meich but to all of the New York attendees, I really had a blast because you all were as big as the city itself.

OK…now about my draft.

I did the research. I prepped many draft positions. I mocksturbated. I had statistical probabilities worked out. I was ready.

Then I went to Junior’s for breakfast. And I changed it all. Not sure Junior’s was the epiphany, but that is where I was (eating grits) where the thought took root.

The Old

I am typically the guy who waits on pitching, but last year, when by good fortune Starling Marte was scooped just before my pick and I nabbed Corey Kluber, I began to appreciate the wisdom of the anchor starter. Leaving God’s Country to head to NYC, I was sure I would grab on pitcher somewhere at the two/three turn. It would be a part of a nicely blended top-three picks, knowing with the #2 in the first round I would have either Trout or more than likely Altuve, then pick a power bat with my other wrap-around. Makes sense. Logical.

I did indeed get Altuve, who nothing more needs to be written about as he has returned first round value in the last four years which is what you would expect from a guy hitting third in that Astro line-up with decent power, great speed, and better BA. At the two/three turn I had a few weeks ago hoped Thor would be available, but then reality set in. One, the news stories of him hitting fastball speeds roughly akin to me flying through an all-you-can eat barbeque buffet was causing him to rise up to the first few picks in the 2nd round where also Strasburg was getting picked (the big four going as expected in the 1st Round) and two, drafting in NY with all those ever hopeful Mutts fans meant he would not be there for me.

Oh well. I felt sure I would have to settle for having the option of “settling” from at least three of (in my order of preference) Carrasco, DeGrom, Bumgarner, Verlander, and Severino. Not that you could not put a dimes difference on the five. It was really like a choice between honey blondes, brunettes, black, auburn, and that beautiful woman I saw on the subway who had a hair color that reminded me of BBQ sauce (three food references already…I must be hungry).
I should also have the choice of several power bats like Donaldson, Springer, or Dozier, or other bats like Bregman (going a bit early really in my opinion) or a “reach” for Benintendi, Yelich, or Abreu. This approach would leave me with two anchor bats, one anchor starter. Then the rest of the top ten rounds could flow with my approach being looking for one more starter, one closer, and maybe one catcher though I cared less about offensive roster construction and more about getting the best available regardless of position. “Value” if you will. Nothing new. Just building a core.

This, I think, would be really appropriate for this year. After last year’s homerun binge, there seems to me to be so many reasonable and available bats in the outfield, middle, and at the corners. Seems just about everyone hit 20+ HR and had nearly 70 runs and RBI’s. Recency bias maybe. Anyway, except for catcher and speed as a stat, the perverbal trees seem full of fruit, so grab what you can early. You can fill in later without sacrificing too much.

The New

As I was sitting at Junior’s masticating a piece of dead hog, a voice in my head said “open your mind to possibilities”. I looked around to see if a billboard prophet was offering me advice on profit, but no. Then I checked to see if I had taken my meds. I had. All normal...except the guy sitting next to me of course...



That leaves baseball. So I looked at my cheat sheets again. And several things jumped out. Remember those starters I would get a crack at? At the turn where I was drafting, the two-anchor pitchers strategy really jumped out. Why have one piece of cheesecake when you can have two? As always, it depends on what you give up. So I looked at the bats available at the 4/5 turn. These might be half a notch below what I was giving up, but still blue-chip. It could work. I could catch up adequately on offensive stats. And by taking two of the remaining “ace” starters, I would be denying at least one of my competitors an anchor, perhaps causing a minor disruption in their strategy.

So I went for it. Like I mentioned earlier, I had Altuve. All I needed was for at least three of those starters I mentioned to make it back to me. As luck would have it, my first choice was from my top four, and Roy “Homey” Ericson grabbed Severino. And it is not like I did not like Severino. He helped me win my league last year. It is just that of those five, he has the greatest chance of retrenching just a bit as some players do after their breakout year.

Anyway, I jumped on Carrasco (insert colorful local colloquial expression implying real fast here). He may not be Kluber, be he ain’t far behind. And in that division with no less than three teams rebuilding? Big arm (9.5+ K per nine) and one more thing I wanted to target. Great control with less than 2.5 BB per nine. You cannot predict wins, but evidence and history of superior underlying skills should give you the best chance (that is chance, no guarantees) of success. Happy me. Nailed it in the peanut gallery that is my mind!

But there was a cost. One minor slide had occurred. Available to me was Aaron Judge. And I passed. It is not that I think Judge would not be worth it there. I do think his big swing, besides causing irreparable damage to baseballs, also opens him up to generating a lot of breeze. His BA cannot help but suffer. This is picking nits or just Monday morning self-validation, but in any case, I did not think Judge was so good as to not be replaceable later.

Michael DeCavalcante could not pass on Judge. And I understand that, but he really did not want to go OF/OF with his first two picks. He noted to me that if he could have known Judge would make it back to him, HE would have taken Altuve. Oh well…Michael now has an embarrassment of riches in Trout/Judge and he grabbed Bumgarner with his second pick of the turn.

That left me with my #2 hoped for starter in DeGrom. He may not be Syndergaard, but his K per 9 and control is nearly as good. Again, great underlying skills. And both Carrasco and DeGrom had a few other things I was hoping for in my anchor(s). One, 55% or less fastball use, which means they have good confidence in their secondary pitchers and opposing batters cannot sit waiting on the heater. This is even more impressive as each has above average fastball speed (94-95 mph). And they use their sliders less than 25% of the time. I may be archaic, but I do think overuse of the slider can hurt arms (there are of course a few exceptions). And they have better than league average first pitch strike and swinging strike rate. And their ages are in that pitcher sweet spot (29-32). I feel like I basically just checked all of the wish-list boxes, times two. The peanut gallery goes wild!



At a cost. I could have had Judge or any of those other bats I mentioned, but mine was the not the only team to bear the cost. As it turned out, Roy grabbed Verlander (Roy, Michael and I grabbed a total of five pitchers at the turn) so with the Greinke concerns all of the ace starters were gone (at least according to my lists). Those teams that did not grab a pitcher in the first two rounds were (or maybe) a bit behind in the anchor starter class. Will one of the top pitchers disappoint? Absolutely. Will one of the pitchers still available be an “ace” next year? Of course. But for right now, only the high-end #2 pitchers are available (again, according to my lists).

And now I watch as 27 picks go by and all of those excellent bats I could have had are picked. When it came back to me, I grabbed some power in some very Judge-ish talent…Kris Davis. Their profiles are very similar, except I got him two rounds later. Should be steady power, but I (like I would have with Judge) have to give back some of Altuve’s BA.

So this brings up an opportunity. I am going to track Judge versus Davis, to see just what I have given up. Yes, Judge will crank HR in bunches and my stomach will churn, but what will the total impact be in 2018? Will do the same with DeGrom and the pitcher I probably would have taken in Cole. Be good to see where I land in the comparisons.

The prior night, at an auction, I had bought Dee Gordon, but made a mistake and did not get enough supporting speed in my opinion. Elvis Andrus, due to his power spike last year, has risen in the drafts compared to where he was picked last year (I think). He never has been a “Judy” (probably good for about 10 HR or 15 in this juiced ball era), but I picked him because he has been a fairly consistent 25 SB source with a distant history of more. And great BA over the last two years. And guess what? This late bloomer will not turn 30 until late summer, so he still has a chance to reclaim his former SB glory, skills-wise. And like I have seen the Oracle Dan Kenyon write so many times, once a player owns a skill….



By the time the draft made it back to me for the 6/7 turn, I had a decent offensive base with two MI and one OFer and two great starters. I wanted to get one of the better closers (better = relatively stable job security). And a cornerman with OF eligibility I am high on was coming back to me. But NOOOOOO….

Roy snaked Castellanos the pick before me. Not the last time he would do this either. For a nice guy, he sure is mean. So I decided on a little more disruption. Michael already had a closer (Osuna) and Kimbrel, Jansen, Knebel and Chapman were gone. So I grabbed Cody Allen (did I mention I was high on Cleveland this year?). Even if Michael grabbed another closer (which I did not expect him to), I would have some choice between Diaz, Rivero, or even Giles. I was right, so I grabbed Diaz. It was a mini-run as Rivero, Giles, Davis, and Iglesias went within the next few picks. By the end of the seventh round, five teams had no closer and no team other than me had two. Maybe not the smartest move given closer turnover, but I can pretty much mark closers of the to-do list and will not be scrambling for saves for the rest of the draft. I think my timing was just right.



But I am behind on offense again. Good core, but down raw numbers. This was not a time to gamble, so I grabbed a non-sexy pick in Kyle Seager. Ignoring ADP, I had three third basemen ranked side-by-side with little difference except one was just coming into their own (Castellanos), one had his potential career-year at age 28 prior to his big FA contract (Moustakas) and a pretty steady Seager. Should be a good (25-30) power source and if his BA rebounds a bit, will not hurt me there and maybe even will rebound to help. Coming back around seemed a good time to grab a better than “do-no-harm” catcher. Sanchez, Contreras, Posey, and Perez were of course gone. I lined up two possibles from the remaining pool in Realmuto and Gattis. I had Gattis in my auction and think he is going to have a good year, but went Realmuto. I think JT will play more, have that speed so rare in catchers, and will be traded to a better park at some point this year.

Now I have the next to the last pick for the 10th round. And there sits Jeff Samardzija. Mr. Hardluck. The man whose name may not be spelled properly (at least at first crack). I really like the Giants to be the team to push the Dodgers this year. And, other than the great K per 9 and being 33, he hits all my other markers (better than 94 mph average fastball, less than 25% slider, great control which means better than average first pitch strike). The 10th round had been mainly about pitchers (10 out of 15 picks) and my choice did not make Michael happy as he had Samardzija queued up.



He picked another starter and another pattern emerged. Michael, Roy and I all had five pitchers each in the first 10 rounds. Most other teams had three or four (Robert Rowe also had five pitchers), so for the next ten rounds, most other teams would be focused on their pitching staffs.

But I am pretty happy. And that is all that counts.

This blog is getting a bit long so I will condense the rest. Coming out of the break, I was covertly asking folks if they had a choice, would they want Lamb or Moustakas. They were generally unanimous, but it was academic. Michael picked Lamb so I grabbed Moose hoping he at least approaches last year’s numbers.

Checking my team and watching the rest of the league, two things I noted. One, I only have one OFer. Second, that next tier of pitchers are dropping. Coming back around I grabbed Steven Souza (Jr. not Sr.). I do not know how the humidor will hit him, but leaving Tampa for Arizona must be a plus. I will give back some BA, but hopefully will get a few steals with decent power in return. Last year I was really high on Kenta Maeda. Or just really high. Who knows? He does throw a few too many sliders for my taste, but again I get a control pitcher with better than league average FPK% and SWK%. He plays on a good team. A little health and bullpen avoidance and this is a good pick.

Maybe a mistake, but I locked up my second catcher at the 14/15 turn in Zunino and again I give back some BA. Could have gone Lucroy but his stint in Texas scared me off. Most I think rank Porcello as being lucky when he won his Cy Young, but I do not think he is as bad as his stats showed last year. A rebound candidate maybe in a tough league. Still only 29 if you can believe it.

At 16/17, I took Cozart. Another regression candidate after what I suspect was a career year. Still, LAA should be in the hunt this year and even if Cozart will not be able to take advantage of the Angels lowering the fence, I think this is a nice third infield pick. Coming back around I grabbed my third OFer, Corey Dickerson, whom I also have in my Auction league. Hitting second (I think) in Pittsburgh and I think a little overlooked. Should be at least solid and more than a little helpful to my team.

Now we get into gamble range. Speed is at a premium, so I grabbed Mallex Smith, less for myself but more to deny one of my league mates a chance to play catchup on speed. I need a first baseman and was going to grab Belt, who I feel is also undervalued, but he was poached (can an 18th round pick be a poach?) two picks before me, so coming around the corner I grabbed Morrison. 19th round is not bad, though he is another coming off his best year at age 29. A little more BA gone. Still, he may hit 4th in Minnesota.

And 20th is Hyun-Jin Ryu, a total gut-shot call. A flyer. A guess. Who knows, but I got him.

With Smith, I will round out my outfield and/or utility spot with Kepler (21st), Pence (24th), Heyward (25th…I still think he will have a positive bat one day), and Span (28th). Three more starters (Folty 22nd, Velasquez 23rd, and Tyler Anderson (27th). A back-up infielder who may hit third for a while in Lowrie (26th) at least until Oakland brings the rookie up. And a back-up corner in Valbuena (30th and I do not think Ohtani will DH as much as advertised).

So that is the 2018 version of my odd odyssey. I like my pitching and speed. Time will tell if I caught up on the power batting stats and whether I gave up too much BA in the process. Now the work really begins trying to out-manage some of the best in-season fantasy baseball managers in the game.

Good luck to all! Gonna miss you guys in Vegas! Let the games begin!

[Wolfpac]

As always an enjoyable read! Good luck Wayne.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Looks good, Wayne.

A small rant for you....
Shandler never defines 'skills'.
I believe that Jason Heyward's best 'skill', above his defense, is to top hand a ground ball to the right side.
Joey Gallo's chief skill, missing pitches.
BUT, the big rub is when do a players skills manifest themselves again?
Ellsbury hit over 30 homers one year. Mauer had a great power year.
First, they don't OWN those skills. They RENTED them!
Shandler's statement covers his arse if ever a guy repeats a year from the past.
Nothing more, nothing less.
We play a year to year league. Can Shandler tell us if Mark Trumbo will repeat his power numbers THIS year?
Nope, only that Trumbo is capable of those numbers.
We already knew that!
So, what help does that statement offer us?
I'll tell you how much....
ZERO NADA ZILCH and every other word that means NOTHING.

By the way, I read the comic strip 'Frank and Ernest' today.
Maybe somebody else has seen it.
It had dogs playing baseball. The catcher goes out to the pitcher and says, "Just throw strikes, this guy is looking for a walk."
When looking at the batter in the caption, he has a leash in his mouth.
Awesome
I will forever think of Joey Votto with a leash in his pocket about to walk that dog.

Glad you had a great time with those New York'ers, Wayne.
I'll sure miss you in Vegas!
Now, a lot of them come West and cause a ruckus there.
Those New York'ers do know how to have a good time.

[Edwards Kings]

As always an enjoyable read! Good luck Wayne.

Glad you like it and good luck to you, too!

[slopshot]

Nice write up Wayne, enjoyed the read and your thoughts. Good luck this year

[Edwards Kings]

A small rant for you....

Good! I was hoping you would!

Shandler never defines 'skills'.

Sure he does.

Is he always right? No, no one is, but in some of your examples, you are talking results. Actually Shandler early in Heyward's career constantly mentioned his groundball tendencies and how these would cap his results over his career. Skills did not equal early results.

Mauer too on his career year if I recall Shanlder questioned it. Maybe not. Anyway, what the crystal ball does not tell us very well is how long do you have to display the skill to actually "own" it. For example hitting one flyball does not give you flyball tendencies as a skill.

Can Shandler tell us if Mark Trumbo will repeat his power numbers THIS year?
Nope, only that Trumbo is capable of those numbers.

Correct and that is all he has ever done. But while others are just comparing three year averages, Shandler (and a few others like Todd) do a little more breakdown as to why they believe certain players have or don't have a skill.

It has never been for absolutes but rather for an edge. Compare two players based on some of the metrics underlying a certain skill and it is up to you to decide who is at the greater risk of falling short or has the greater chance to succeed.

By the way, I read the comic strip 'Frank and Ernest' today.
Maybe somebody else has seen it.
It had dogs playing baseball. The catcher goes out to the pitcher and says, "Just throw strikes, this guy is looking for a walk."
When looking at the batter in the caption, he has a leash in his mouth.
Awesome
I will forever think of Joey Votto with a leash in his pocket about to walk that dog.

That is hilarious!

Good luck in Vegas Dan! Watch out for those Dorito Groupies!

[Edwards Kings]

Nice write up Wayne, enjoyed the read and your thoughts. Good luck this year

Thanks and good luck to you too!

[Doctor Who]

Loved the read again Wayne! Def wish we could have talked more this weekend as was a wild run around town for me making it a blur. If only you were 20 again so you could have gone to the MTM party afterwards!

[Bigperl]

It was great to meet you, Wayne, before our draft started on Saturday. I wish we could have talked longer (and after the draft too). Looking forward to your in-season analysis of your team and more...and I hope you are as high on Albies as I am, though I may have reached a bit in grabbing him in our draft as early as I did!

Good luck in what will certainly be a very competitive league!

Marc

[Edwards Kings]

Loved the read again Wayne! Def wish we could have talked more this weekend as was a wild run around town for me making it a blur. If only you were 20 again so you could have gone to the MTM party afterwards!

Me too both (more time to talk and 20 again as long as I can have my same bank account)! I look forward to your blog.

[Edwards Kings]

It was great to meet you, Wayne, before our draft started on Saturday. I wish we could have talked longer (and after the draft too). Looking forward to your in-season analysis of your team and more...and I hope you are as high on Albies as I am, though I may have reached a bit in grabbing him in our draft as early as I did!

Good luck in what will certainly be a very competitive league!

Marc

Enjoyed meeting you too, Marc. And there is nothing holding Albies back but youth. He flew through the minors but he already is showing all the right signs. He hits the ball pretty hard for someone 5'8". He sees the ball pretty well and that I think will only improve. He makes good contact already (he is only 21) so look for his OBP to improve and average too. With a little more coaching, I see easily 25+ SB regularly with good power (say 15-20 with that lucky year getting 25). These things should keep him hitting up in the line-up for a long time. This year I think he can get close to these numbers and maybe even a BA that won't hurt much.

[Bronx Yankees]

Wayne, great write up as always. Looks like you have a nice, competitive team going for you. I really enjoyed chatting with you as well. Glad you found the Big Apple so welcoming - the NYC live events really do get better year after year! Best of luck with your team - I look forward to reading your future installments!

Mike

[Baseball Furies]

"Class Act"? You're too kind, my friend. Take this as a huge compliment from a fine Southern gentleman who is the epitome of class. I appreciated the gesture of the nice cigar which I will smoke in your honor out in Vegas this weekend at the MTM Vegas party while out on the balcony of the suite overlooking the Vegas strip and the famous Bellagio Fountains. You will be missed out there. Wish you could have joined us for the post-draft festivities after the MTM Ultimate so we could have had some more time to hang out, but I do understand age and conditioning are not in your favor at this point in your career. Good luck this year, my brother!

[Edwards Kings]

Wayne, great write up as always. Looks like you have a nice, competitive team going for you. I really enjoyed chatting with you as well. Glad you found the Big Apple so welcoming - the NYC live events really do get better year after year! Best of luck with your team - I look forward to reading your future installments!

Mike

Thanks Mike. Enjoyed our conversations and every time I go to NYC, I fall in love with it a little more.

[Edwards Kings]

"Class Act"? You're too kind, my friend. Take this as a huge compliment from a fine Southern gentleman who is the epitome of class. I appreciated the gesture of the nice cigar which I will smoke in your honor out in Vegas this weekend at the MTM Vegas party while out on the balcony of the suite overlooking the Vegas strip and the famous Bellagio Fountains. You will be missed out there. Wish you could have joined us for the post-draft festivities after the MTM Ultimate so we could have had some more time to hang out, but I do understand age and conditioning are not in your favor at this point in your career. Good luck this year, my brother!

Age = Fine Wine (or if my team tanks, whine)
Condition = It is a poor farmer who does not build a shed over his best tool.

I really do wish I had the testosterone to hang with you guys, but by the time I cashed it in all I wanted was my "Hello Kitty" jammies and a pillow. I wish I was out in Vegas too but I hope you enjoy the stogie.

Have a BLAST!

[mdecav]

It was great seated next to you in the Main...

We met only briefly in Vegas in 2015 but you remembered my name when you posted about your time in Vegas and who you met - that stood out in my mind.

Hope you make it back to NYC next year...

[MadCow Sez]

Always a pleasure, my friend. I'll miss seeing you in Vegas. Need someone to remind me when I need to pick another 3B

[Edwards Kings]

It was great seated next to you in the Main...

We met only briefly in Vegas in 2015 but you remembered my name when you posted about your time in Vegas and who you met - that stood out in my mind.

Hope you make it back to NYC next year...

The pleasure was truly all mine, Michael. We were drafting off the same notes (sorry again about Samardizja!). There is hardly a player on your team that I would not love to have on mine. I have got a feeling I will be chasing your team all year!

[Edwards Kings]

Always a pleasure, my friend. I'll miss seeing you in Vegas. Need someone to remind me when I need to pick another 3B

As always, it was great seeing a Springfield Isotopes legend such as yourself. And it was really nice to be introduced to your cousins. I hope they did not feel we were all crazy (we are, but we hide it well most days).

Good luck in Vegas!

[Edwards Kings]

"Steven Souza has a strained right shoulder and will undergo an MRI on Thursday.

Souza injured the shoulder while trying to make a diving catch in the fourth inning of Wednesday night's Cactus League game and looked to be in considerable pain as he left the field with a trainer. It would be a significant loss for the Diamondbacks if Souza were to miss time, as he was expected to hit in the middle of the lineup and help replace the offense supplied last year by J.D. Martinez. We should know more about the severity of the injury by Thursday afternoon."

Well damn....

[Glenneration X]

Great read as always Wayne. And I like your team a lot. You did a great job there which will be very needed in this ridiculous shark tank of a league that I've already advised my accountant to anticipate using solely for tax write off purposes.

It was great seeing you as well and glad you enjoyed drafting in the Big City this year. I love the NYC drafts and catching up with those who I see there year after year. A great group of people. Still, you'll be missed in Vegas Bud.

[Edwards Kings]

Most of the Vegas drafts are over and I hope everyone had fun. Greg and Tom will likely fill that second over-flow online league (Breaking 500 teams...congrats!). I was telling my wife about it. I barely got three words into my set-up before I got the “NO!”



Oh well. I can make do with what I have. It certainly takes a strong constitution to do a high stakes draft or auction early because then you get to sit back and see who on your team will get hurt before opening day.

“Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told Zach Buchanan of The Athletic Arizona that Steven Souza (pectoral) will likely be out until mid-May. Buchanan asked Lovullo if it was possible that Souza could return in May, and Lovullo added the mid-May. While not ideal, it's still somewhat of a best-case scenario for the outfielder, as he looked to be in significant pain after coming up lame while diving for a ball on Wednesday. Once back, he should hit in the middle of the Arizona lineup, and he should produce enough to be worth drafting in all formats.”

Lays out for a ball in spring-training and costs himself a quarter of the season. Smooth move, Exlax! He must have been a prodigy when he was a kid.



I can replace his relative power or his speed from my existing reserves. Probably not both. And probably not through the FA pool (which I had hoped to avoid in the first week) either.

“An MRI taken Thursday on Jeff Samardzija's right shoulder showed a strained pectoral muscle. That's a better diagnosis than what some were fearing, but Samardzija will open the season on the disabled list and could miss a good chunk of April. "He’ll go a week without throwing the ball and then crank it up," manager Bruce Bochy said late Thursday night. This will be the first career DL stint for the 33-year-old right-hander. Derek Holland appears to be the likely fill-in.”

I would say I now wish Michael had gotten Samardzija, but he has MadBum, so that would just be piling on. Both Souza and Samardzija have strained pectoral muscles, so I get to have an internal team race to see who I get back first.

“Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald calls it "highly likely" that J.T. Realmuto will begin the 2018 season on the 10-day disabled list. Realmuto has publicly maintained confidence that he would be ready in time for Opening Day, but that's looking less likely by the day. If he's unable to go Tomas Telis would likely serve as the team's starting catcher.”

If this was “the” year for the Marlins, my guess is he would play opening day. This isn’t “the” year so probably DL to start. I am really starting to hate the 10-day DL rule.

Three of my projected 23 starters so far. Time for more libations to Jobu.



Looks like I get to play in the first FA pool after all.

One fun thing about having only a couple of teams is the time I have for endless dissection. And I see one key weakness in my current team. I have too many of my power bats hitting out of the 5 and 6 slots. That means RBI will be a big struggle to me as even a good 5 and 6 hitter will not have as many ducks on the pond as the 3 and 4. This hurt me last year too. And we are not talking much difference, but it adds up. Last year I did really well in three offensive categories (SB, R, and BA). In RBI, 40 more over the course of 26 weeks could have really improved my chances (given my other team strengths) to have a money finish in the Overall (peaked at 3rd, finished at 18th). And I will probably need some BA help on this year’s team as team as well if I am to break the 0.270 barrier over the course of the season.

Last year, what was to be my teams weakness (SP) ended up being the thing that let me win my league. Proves the old adage that I would rather be lucky than good. I rode three starters (#1 SP pick Kluber, #3 Ray, and #5 Severino) to leading my league in K’s and WHIP, with a second place finish in ERA. Those three positions were stable (though at times populated by the likes of Jesse Chavez, Jaimie Garcia, and Jason Hammel) gave me nearly 750 k’s (almost half my total), over 50 wins (MLB did not have a 20 game winner, but I did), a collective ERA around 3.000 and WHIP just over 1.000. For most of my pitching counting and average stats, these three made my team.

This year, do I have the tools to replicate? Given the 10-day curse, I do not expect 35 starts out of any of my pitchers, so mix-and-match will again play a role. Certainly, if healthy (horseshoes, four-leaf clover, knocking on wood) Carrasco and DeGrom have the ability to give me 2/3 of what I had last year. But who else could step in?

One could be Samardizja though it is not a good sign that his five-year string of 32 or 33 starts/200+IP per year has ended. His strike-out numbers reached 2013-2014 vintage last year and at 33 should not be over the hill. So if I can replace him for four or five starts with someone resembling at least a quality starter, then maybe this position will be my third “ace”.

I will throw the dice and bet Maeda can be the guy. It seems imports from other professional leagues take at least a year to get used to MLB and he was pretty good his first year. Some injuries last year, but he still struck out better than a hitter per inning and had great control (better than a 3:1 K to BB ratio. This year’s LAD version of Alex Wood perhaps? I think Maeda’s success out of the bullpen, however, makes Walker Buehler a bigger threat to Maeda than any other Dodger starter, given all have good health.

Two other guys, both in the powerhouse NL East, in Foltynewicz and Velasquez, have pretty big arms, but lack confidence in their secondary pitches (i.e. threw the fastball more than 60% of the time last year) but both could be maturing. It is control holding them back. If (that is the BIG if) they find the zip code of strike zone, and use their secondary pitches more (Folty the slider/CB and Velasquez the change-up and CB), both could exceed expectations.

Ryu could help, and may be Samardzija’s injury replacement, which may be perfect for him as you know you will not get a full season of starts out of him due to his relative fragility and 5th starter status (not wishing bad, but one has to wonder how much longer 38 year old Rich Hill will bring the gas). If 1) healthy, and 2) has a little luck against lefty’s, which is where his biggest long-ball challenge is, his is a sneaky pick. Probably not my #3 best starter, but his skills say he is not chopped kimchi either.

Porcello is the guy on my team that scares me the most. Except for his incredible 2016, he has always given up too many hits. A workhorse, if I get the 4.50 ERA 1.40 WHIP Porcello over 180+ IP, he hurts. I get the rarer 3.50 ERA 1.30 WHIP Porcello, we alrighty then.



His rebound would be if he could learn to pitch in Fenway again. He was horrible there last year, though actually had better home over road stats in 2015 and 2016. Strangely enough, over his three years in Boston, has actually had pretty good success against the Yankees. You never know.

Anyway. Sunday morning ramble.

[Edwards Kings]

So I picked up two teams in New York. In the Main, I picked up JT Realmuto and Mike Zunino. Nice. In the Auction, Sal Perez and Gattis.

One for four...

[Edwards Kings]

So I like to think I have learned a few things in life, and that I am still learning:

1) Gluten Free Bread "Tastes like the real thing" or "Tastes Great!" is a lie.



2) When walking in a crowd, never slip-stream a Vegan.



3) 2018 will NOT be known as the "Year of the Catcher".

I started out thinking JT Realmuto and Mike Zunino might contribute to my team. And they might. One day. As of today, however, I am pinning my hopes and dreams on Manny Pina and Drew Butera. I picked up Butera in the last, ever memorable FA period for $5 (poor runner-up bid of $5) having been outbid for other offensive notables such as Jason Castro and Francisco Cervelli. But then again a lot of us are in the same boat.

Hunter Strickland could have a high profile job for a while as Melancon just can't seem to get healthy, but I do not have that much faith in him. That did not keep me from bidding on him. I bid $105 for what will probably be a rental-closer, but was, as expected, not even close. He went in our league for $387 (Miss Congeniality bid was $334). Again, he could be awesome, but I did not want to spend a third of my FA budget on a closer. That is just me. Cheap.



Well, ok, maybe I am for sale, but definitely not cheaply.

Anyway, my team has the 10-day DL blues. Realmuto, Zunino, Samardzija, Souza. Other things are now evident. One, Mallex Smith will not see may LHP this year and given Tampa has faced an almost exclusive diet of left-handers early, bench spot #5 has been a lump. Oh...I remembered one more thing I learned...

4) The impact of the humidor was overplayed in the off season (diplomatic way to say it).



The non-diplomatic way to say it. I have had two pitchers (ok, maybe not the strongest match-ups with "Wake me when it is May" Anderson and "Is it time for my Injury?" Ryu) get tagged there. No humidor help for me.

Still, after four days, I did get four wins out of seven starts (one win, Carrasco's, was lucky) and three saves to go with 46 K's. Nothing special about my bats other than nice BA. So with the weird days off (I mean, off Fridays or Sundays?), bad weather, the first four days just felt like a bad, bland breakfast.



So the first four days should be treated as a mulligan. Now starts the "real" season and I am crawling with excitement!

[Edwards Kings]

For your players in the northeast, what a frustrating three and a half weeks. The weather has just sucked so trying to get the starts and at-bats has been a nightmare. So Gates was wrong…winter is not coming….it has never left!



At this stage of the season, I had hoped to have about 1,050 at bats, but the weather and injuries to some full-timers, I only have 942. That is about a player and a half worth of AB over this early part of the seaon. Part of it is on my as having lost both of my starting catchers to injury, and having none but numb nuts to replace them, once I read/thought that Realmuto and Zunino would be back, I put them in, even if I had to eat a few days with no AB out of the position. That is the half player. The other missing AB is the weather. Did I mention the weather sucks?



And injuries. We all have them to one degree or another. Besides my catchers, I had Elvis for a little while, then he took that pitch to his arm. See you in June. I have the surprising (and soon to cool) Jed Lowrie to replace him, but lost is a little more speed I don’t have. I have also been without the services of Steven Souza all year. More missing speed and full-time AB. I had hoped for a little but hopefully solid production from Pence. I got half (i.e. the little, not the solid) until he hurt his thumb. So, this has been an exercise of in-season management.

On catchers, I got both Realmuto and Zunino back. This is good because replacements Butera and Pina were pretty much worthless. On the corners, Moustakas has been one of my offensive anchors and Kyle Seager has not. But my real trouble is first base. Man, could any player be colder than Logan Morrison? I think it is hard to win this league without production from first, so I am constantly going to be on the prowl for an upgrade.

Up the middle was pretty solid until Andrus got hurt even if between him and Altuve they have only given me one stolen base. Cozart started out hot, but has regressed quite a bit recently. So really this whole part of my team has been relying on Lowrie.

Not really doing great in the OF either. Kris Davis, Kepler and Chris Dickerson have been solid, but I have used Pence, Heyward, Span and Profar for the other spots. Need Steven Souza to come back swinging.All-in-all, I am sucking fumes on runs and SB (114 and 5 respectively). Yet here I am whining when I am in second place in my league and 30th overall! Why? Because even if my HR/RBI/BA is decent (35/147/.272), unless I solidify my offense a bit, my middling batting points will be dropping off the cliff.



I was going to track how Kris Davis was comparing to Aaron Judge. After this period of time:
Davis: 89 AB with a .270 BA, 11 R, 6 HR, 19 RBI, O SB
Judge: 74 AB with a .324 BA, 18 R, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 2 SB

Clearly Judge is outpointing Davis early.

Anyway I am being propped up by pitching, which has been good for much of the league. Five teams already have 190+ K’s. Six teams already have 13 wins. Seven teams have ERA’s under 3.50. Six teams have WHIPs under 1.20. And luckily I am leading my league in the (very) early going in pitching points and fourth overall (behind Lindy, Dan Kenyon, and Chris Plouffe…good company). Strange anomaly here in the early going. There are only two teams in the top 30 of pitching points overall from those who drafted in New York. Me and the Matt Modica/Andy Saxon team…who is in my league and in first place right now.

I drafted to have good pitching, so I am happy it is working out. Allen and Diaz have between them 11 saves (not bad, but Allen has not had any for a while) and between them they have given up only one earned run and striking out 28 in 19.1 IP.

My team has generated 30 GS (fifteen wins) with me using six starters for 25 of them (Carrasco, DeGrom, Porcello, Velasquez, Ryu, and Tyler Anderson). All except Velasquez and Anderson have ERA’s 2.60 or less and WHIPs of 1.03 or less. And Velasquez (one bad start, 3.80 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) really hasn’t been bad. Also had good starts from Foltynewicz (2), Maeda (2), and Wainwright (1). All except Wainwright are still on my team and Samardzija is back (though I am not sure when I will start using him). Samardzija was my third starter taken and his first start back was not bad, but the four walks in five IP were not characteristic of his pin-point control, so with a tough Washington start up next, I may watch him a bit.

FAAB – My wish list was pretty short. Try to find a first baseman who can hit. Get a back-up shortstop. Get an outfielder who will play, hopefully up in the batting order. Get another source of potential saves.

Nothing to it. If there is nothing to it, the inevitable is….



On the first baseman, I got Mitch Moreland for $3. Could be solid, but you just do not know when he will play.

On the back-up shortstop, I got Wilmer Difo for $3, my second choice to Eduardo Escobar, who went for much more than I was willing to pay. With Rendon down, Difo will play, but hits so far down in the line-up that his value takes a ding.

One the outfielder, I got Adam Frazier for $31 with a $6 runner up bid. He hits up and SHOULD play, but lost two week end starts to Sean Rodriguez.

For the potential saves, I picked up erstwhile Darren O’Day for a buck. Brach has been “OK” at best and got lite up by Cleveland yesterday, so you never know.

Week 5 - My real choices are few including whether or not to start Logan Morrison. Minnesota has four games against the (weak-ass ) Yankees in NY, so if he can make it anywhere, he should make it there.

I also need to decide between Difo and Frazier at UT. Both should play, but if Rodriquez gets another start over Frazier, this decision will be made easier.

On pitching, weather permitting I have multiple two start pitchers this week (Carrasco, Porcello, Velasquez, Foltynewicz, Maeda) mostly with what should be favorable opponents. DeGrom will take one other spot. Tyler Anderson is pitching in Miami and Samardzija is home against the Nationals. But I liked Ryu this year and so far he has been golden outside of the five walks in his first start, so I will go with him in San Francisco.

Just a little light reading.