Edwards Bay Fox Pen NYC Tour 2018
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:09 am
Well…that was interesting.
Let me first tell you, New York really rolled out the red carpet for me. I mean, they even had a parade in my honor! All those people…still, not sure why they were all wearing green, but it was a nice if over the top gesture. I ran as fast as I could all along the parade route to let everyone know how much I appreciated it…even had a police escort running about 20 feet behind me. They lost me when I had to duck into the subway so I could make it to the draft, but they were a great group, not wanting me to leave…shouting “stop asshole!” What a bunch of jokers.
And thanks to Tom and Darik. Great management of the events, which by the way were awesome. Always good to see Tom…Tom…Marvel sucks!
And to everyone in my league, thanks for the never ending headache. Man…these guys were good. There were no slips…no “values”. Nothing got past these guys. Especially great to draft between Michael DeCavalcante and the wildman Roy Ericson. It was good to finally meet Jason Emma and as always catching up, even briefly, with Mark Srebro. Having these guys as one of the competing teams in your league always raises the challenge exponentially.
The man, the myth, the legend…Steve Jupinka. Another guy who makes attending these live events a pleasure. The first time Steve and I were in a league together was the year Steve won it all. Now it is my turn! Great talking with you, Steve.
And Glen Lowy. A true gentleman even if he is a Mets fan. So many events that it was tough to have more than a few brief conversations, but having him in the league really makes this an event like a local league full of long-time friends.
So many more like more great people in the league like Bobby Brendler, Thomas Eshenfelder, Matt Modica, Andy Saxton, Kevin Grady, Marc Perlmutter and of course the rest. Here is hoping you all finish second.
Always great to catch up with a real gentleman, Dan Semsel. Rare chance to catch up with Kent Stermon. Was very fortunate to speak quite a bit with Mike Mager. Dustin Wagner was also in the house and we got to speak, although too briefly. Great catching up with Mark Bendar, another dyed-in-the-wools Mets fan but otherwise a good friend.
And of course Mike Massotto. What a class act. I was in the peanut gallery watching his event…he knows how to put on a draft! Really top notch. Great catching up with you brother!
And I know I have not mentioned so many others like Ante Meich but to all of the New York attendees, I really had a blast because you all were as big as the city itself.
OK…now about my draft.
I did the research. I prepped many draft positions. I mocksturbated. I had statistical probabilities worked out. I was ready.
Then I went to Junior’s for breakfast. And I changed it all. Not sure Junior’s was the epiphany, but that is where I was (eating grits) where the thought took root.
The Old
I am typically the guy who waits on pitching, but last year, when by good fortune Starling Marte was scooped just before my pick and I nabbed Corey Kluber, I began to appreciate the wisdom of the anchor starter. Leaving God’s Country to head to NYC, I was sure I would grab on pitcher somewhere at the two/three turn. It would be a part of a nicely blended top-three picks, knowing with the #2 in the first round I would have either Trout or more than likely Altuve, then pick a power bat with my other wrap-around. Makes sense. Logical.
I did indeed get Altuve, who nothing more needs to be written about as he has returned first round value in the last four years which is what you would expect from a guy hitting third in that Astro line-up with decent power, great speed, and better BA. At the two/three turn I had a few weeks ago hoped Thor would be available, but then reality set in. One, the news stories of him hitting fastball speeds roughly akin to me flying through an all-you-can eat barbeque buffet was causing him to rise up to the first few picks in the 2nd round where also Strasburg was getting picked (the big four going as expected in the 1st Round) and two, drafting in NY with all those ever hopeful Mutts fans meant he would not be there for me.
Oh well. I felt sure I would have to settle for having the option of “settling” from at least three of (in my order of preference) Carrasco, DeGrom, Bumgarner, Verlander, and Severino. Not that you could not put a dimes difference on the five. It was really like a choice between honey blondes, brunettes, black, auburn, and that beautiful woman I saw on the subway who had a hair color that reminded me of BBQ sauce (three food references already…I must be hungry).
I should also have the choice of several power bats like Donaldson, Springer, or Dozier, or other bats like Bregman (going a bit early really in my opinion) or a “reach” for Benintendi, Yelich, or Abreu. This approach would leave me with two anchor bats, one anchor starter. Then the rest of the top ten rounds could flow with my approach being looking for one more starter, one closer, and maybe one catcher though I cared less about offensive roster construction and more about getting the best available regardless of position. “Value” if you will. Nothing new. Just building a core.
This, I think, would be really appropriate for this year. After last year’s homerun binge, there seems to me to be so many reasonable and available bats in the outfield, middle, and at the corners. Seems just about everyone hit 20+ HR and had nearly 70 runs and RBI’s. Recency bias maybe. Anyway, except for catcher and speed as a stat, the perverbal trees seem full of fruit, so grab what you can early. You can fill in later without sacrificing too much.
The New
As I was sitting at Junior’s masticating a piece of dead hog, a voice in my head said “open your mind to possibilities”. I looked around to see if a billboard prophet was offering me advice on profit, but no. Then I checked to see if I had taken my meds. I had. All normal...except the guy sitting next to me of course...
That leaves baseball. So I looked at my cheat sheets again. And several things jumped out. Remember those starters I would get a crack at? At the turn where I was drafting, the two-anchor pitchers strategy really jumped out. Why have one piece of cheesecake when you can have two? As always, it depends on what you give up. So I looked at the bats available at the 4/5 turn. These might be half a notch below what I was giving up, but still blue-chip. It could work. I could catch up adequately on offensive stats. And by taking two of the remaining “ace” starters, I would be denying at least one of my competitors an anchor, perhaps causing a minor disruption in their strategy.
So I went for it. Like I mentioned earlier, I had Altuve. All I needed was for at least three of those starters I mentioned to make it back to me. As luck would have it, my first choice was from my top four, and Roy “Homey” Ericson grabbed Severino. And it is not like I did not like Severino. He helped me win my league last year. It is just that of those five, he has the greatest chance of retrenching just a bit as some players do after their breakout year.
Anyway, I jumped on Carrasco (insert colorful local colloquial expression implying real fast here). He may not be Kluber, be he ain’t far behind. And in that division with no less than three teams rebuilding? Big arm (9.5+ K per nine) and one more thing I wanted to target. Great control with less than 2.5 BB per nine. You cannot predict wins, but evidence and history of superior underlying skills should give you the best chance (that is chance, no guarantees) of success. Happy me. Nailed it in the peanut gallery that is my mind!
But there was a cost. One minor slide had occurred. Available to me was Aaron Judge. And I passed. It is not that I think Judge would not be worth it there. I do think his big swing, besides causing irreparable damage to baseballs, also opens him up to generating a lot of breeze. His BA cannot help but suffer. This is picking nits or just Monday morning self-validation, but in any case, I did not think Judge was so good as to not be replaceable later.
Michael DeCavalcante could not pass on Judge. And I understand that, but he really did not want to go OF/OF with his first two picks. He noted to me that if he could have known Judge would make it back to him, HE would have taken Altuve. Oh well…Michael now has an embarrassment of riches in Trout/Judge and he grabbed Bumgarner with his second pick of the turn.
That left me with my #2 hoped for starter in DeGrom. He may not be Syndergaard, but his K per 9 and control is nearly as good. Again, great underlying skills. And both Carrasco and DeGrom had a few other things I was hoping for in my anchor(s). One, 55% or less fastball use, which means they have good confidence in their secondary pitchers and opposing batters cannot sit waiting on the heater. This is even more impressive as each has above average fastball speed (94-95 mph). And they use their sliders less than 25% of the time. I may be archaic, but I do think overuse of the slider can hurt arms (there are of course a few exceptions). And they have better than league average first pitch strike and swinging strike rate. And their ages are in that pitcher sweet spot (29-32). I feel like I basically just checked all of the wish-list boxes, times two. The peanut gallery goes wild!
At a cost. I could have had Judge or any of those other bats I mentioned, but mine was the not the only team to bear the cost. As it turned out, Roy grabbed Verlander (Roy, Michael and I grabbed a total of five pitchers at the turn) so with the Greinke concerns all of the ace starters were gone (at least according to my lists). Those teams that did not grab a pitcher in the first two rounds were (or maybe) a bit behind in the anchor starter class. Will one of the top pitchers disappoint? Absolutely. Will one of the pitchers still available be an “ace” next year? Of course. But for right now, only the high-end #2 pitchers are available (again, according to my lists).
And now I watch as 27 picks go by and all of those excellent bats I could have had are picked. When it came back to me, I grabbed some power in some very Judge-ish talent…Kris Davis. Their profiles are very similar, except I got him two rounds later. Should be steady power, but I (like I would have with Judge) have to give back some of Altuve’s BA.
So this brings up an opportunity. I am going to track Judge versus Davis, to see just what I have given up. Yes, Judge will crank HR in bunches and my stomach will churn, but what will the total impact be in 2018? Will do the same with DeGrom and the pitcher I probably would have taken in Cole. Be good to see where I land in the comparisons.
The prior night, at an auction, I had bought Dee Gordon, but made a mistake and did not get enough supporting speed in my opinion. Elvis Andrus, due to his power spike last year, has risen in the drafts compared to where he was picked last year (I think). He never has been a “Judy” (probably good for about 10 HR or 15 in this juiced ball era), but I picked him because he has been a fairly consistent 25 SB source with a distant history of more. And great BA over the last two years. And guess what? This late bloomer will not turn 30 until late summer, so he still has a chance to reclaim his former SB glory, skills-wise. And like I have seen the Oracle Dan Kenyon write so many times, once a player owns a skill….
By the time the draft made it back to me for the 6/7 turn, I had a decent offensive base with two MI and one OFer and two great starters. I wanted to get one of the better closers (better = relatively stable job security). And a cornerman with OF eligibility I am high on was coming back to me. But NOOOOOO….
Roy snaked Castellanos the pick before me. Not the last time he would do this either. For a nice guy, he sure is mean. So I decided on a little more disruption. Michael already had a closer (Osuna) and Kimbrel, Jansen, Knebel and Chapman were gone. So I grabbed Cody Allen (did I mention I was high on Cleveland this year?). Even if Michael grabbed another closer (which I did not expect him to), I would have some choice between Diaz, Rivero, or even Giles. I was right, so I grabbed Diaz. It was a mini-run as Rivero, Giles, Davis, and Iglesias went within the next few picks. By the end of the seventh round, five teams had no closer and no team other than me had two. Maybe not the smartest move given closer turnover, but I can pretty much mark closers of the to-do list and will not be scrambling for saves for the rest of the draft. I think my timing was just right.
But I am behind on offense again. Good core, but down raw numbers. This was not a time to gamble, so I grabbed a non-sexy pick in Kyle Seager. Ignoring ADP, I had three third basemen ranked side-by-side with little difference except one was just coming into their own (Castellanos), one had his potential career-year at age 28 prior to his big FA contract (Moustakas) and a pretty steady Seager. Should be a good (25-30) power source and if his BA rebounds a bit, will not hurt me there and maybe even will rebound to help. Coming back around seemed a good time to grab a better than “do-no-harm” catcher. Sanchez, Contreras, Posey, and Perez were of course gone. I lined up two possibles from the remaining pool in Realmuto and Gattis. I had Gattis in my auction and think he is going to have a good year, but went Realmuto. I think JT will play more, have that speed so rare in catchers, and will be traded to a better park at some point this year.
Now I have the next to the last pick for the 10th round. And there sits Jeff Samardzija. Mr. Hardluck. The man whose name may not be spelled properly (at least at first crack). I really like the Giants to be the team to push the Dodgers this year. And, other than the great K per 9 and being 33, he hits all my other markers (better than 94 mph average fastball, less than 25% slider, great control which means better than average first pitch strike). The 10th round had been mainly about pitchers (10 out of 15 picks) and my choice did not make Michael happy as he had Samardzija queued up.
He picked another starter and another pattern emerged. Michael, Roy and I all had five pitchers each in the first 10 rounds. Most other teams had three or four (Robert Rowe also had five pitchers), so for the next ten rounds, most other teams would be focused on their pitching staffs.
But I am pretty happy. And that is all that counts.
This blog is getting a bit long so I will condense the rest. Coming out of the break, I was covertly asking folks if they had a choice, would they want Lamb or Moustakas. They were generally unanimous, but it was academic. Michael picked Lamb so I grabbed Moose hoping he at least approaches last year’s numbers.
Checking my team and watching the rest of the league, two things I noted. One, I only have one OFer. Second, that next tier of pitchers are dropping. Coming back around I grabbed Steven Souza (Jr. not Sr.). I do not know how the humidor will hit him, but leaving Tampa for Arizona must be a plus. I will give back some BA, but hopefully will get a few steals with decent power in return. Last year I was really high on Kenta Maeda. Or just really high. Who knows? He does throw a few too many sliders for my taste, but again I get a control pitcher with better than league average FPK% and SWK%. He plays on a good team. A little health and bullpen avoidance and this is a good pick.
Maybe a mistake, but I locked up my second catcher at the 14/15 turn in Zunino and again I give back some BA. Could have gone Lucroy but his stint in Texas scared me off. Most I think rank Porcello as being lucky when he won his Cy Young, but I do not think he is as bad as his stats showed last year. A rebound candidate maybe in a tough league. Still only 29 if you can believe it.
At 16/17, I took Cozart. Another regression candidate after what I suspect was a career year. Still, LAA should be in the hunt this year and even if Cozart will not be able to take advantage of the Angels lowering the fence, I think this is a nice third infield pick. Coming back around I grabbed my third OFer, Corey Dickerson, whom I also have in my Auction league. Hitting second (I think) in Pittsburgh and I think a little overlooked. Should be at least solid and more than a little helpful to my team.
Now we get into gamble range. Speed is at a premium, so I grabbed Mallex Smith, less for myself but more to deny one of my league mates a chance to play catchup on speed. I need a first baseman and was going to grab Belt, who I feel is also undervalued, but he was poached (can an 18th round pick be a poach?) two picks before me, so coming around the corner I grabbed Morrison. 19th round is not bad, though he is another coming off his best year at age 29. A little more BA gone. Still, he may hit 4th in Minnesota.
And 20th is Hyun-Jin Ryu, a total gut-shot call. A flyer. A guess. Who knows, but I got him.
With Smith, I will round out my outfield and/or utility spot with Kepler (21st), Pence (24th), Heyward (25th…I still think he will have a positive bat one day), and Span (28th). Three more starters (Folty 22nd, Velasquez 23rd, and Tyler Anderson (27th). A back-up infielder who may hit third for a while in Lowrie (26th) at least until Oakland brings the rookie up. And a back-up corner in Valbuena (30th and I do not think Ohtani will DH as much as advertised).
So that is the 2018 version of my odd odyssey. I like my pitching and speed. Time will tell if I caught up on the power batting stats and whether I gave up too much BA in the process. Now the work really begins trying to out-manage some of the best in-season fantasy baseball managers in the game.
Good luck to all! Gonna miss you guys in Vegas! Let the games begin!
Let me first tell you, New York really rolled out the red carpet for me. I mean, they even had a parade in my honor! All those people…still, not sure why they were all wearing green, but it was a nice if over the top gesture. I ran as fast as I could all along the parade route to let everyone know how much I appreciated it…even had a police escort running about 20 feet behind me. They lost me when I had to duck into the subway so I could make it to the draft, but they were a great group, not wanting me to leave…shouting “stop asshole!” What a bunch of jokers.
And thanks to Tom and Darik. Great management of the events, which by the way were awesome. Always good to see Tom…Tom…Marvel sucks!
And to everyone in my league, thanks for the never ending headache. Man…these guys were good. There were no slips…no “values”. Nothing got past these guys. Especially great to draft between Michael DeCavalcante and the wildman Roy Ericson. It was good to finally meet Jason Emma and as always catching up, even briefly, with Mark Srebro. Having these guys as one of the competing teams in your league always raises the challenge exponentially.
The man, the myth, the legend…Steve Jupinka. Another guy who makes attending these live events a pleasure. The first time Steve and I were in a league together was the year Steve won it all. Now it is my turn! Great talking with you, Steve.
And Glen Lowy. A true gentleman even if he is a Mets fan. So many events that it was tough to have more than a few brief conversations, but having him in the league really makes this an event like a local league full of long-time friends.
So many more like more great people in the league like Bobby Brendler, Thomas Eshenfelder, Matt Modica, Andy Saxton, Kevin Grady, Marc Perlmutter and of course the rest. Here is hoping you all finish second.
Always great to catch up with a real gentleman, Dan Semsel. Rare chance to catch up with Kent Stermon. Was very fortunate to speak quite a bit with Mike Mager. Dustin Wagner was also in the house and we got to speak, although too briefly. Great catching up with Mark Bendar, another dyed-in-the-wools Mets fan but otherwise a good friend.
And of course Mike Massotto. What a class act. I was in the peanut gallery watching his event…he knows how to put on a draft! Really top notch. Great catching up with you brother!
And I know I have not mentioned so many others like Ante Meich but to all of the New York attendees, I really had a blast because you all were as big as the city itself.
OK…now about my draft.
I did the research. I prepped many draft positions. I mocksturbated. I had statistical probabilities worked out. I was ready.
Then I went to Junior’s for breakfast. And I changed it all. Not sure Junior’s was the epiphany, but that is where I was (eating grits) where the thought took root.
The Old
I am typically the guy who waits on pitching, but last year, when by good fortune Starling Marte was scooped just before my pick and I nabbed Corey Kluber, I began to appreciate the wisdom of the anchor starter. Leaving God’s Country to head to NYC, I was sure I would grab on pitcher somewhere at the two/three turn. It would be a part of a nicely blended top-three picks, knowing with the #2 in the first round I would have either Trout or more than likely Altuve, then pick a power bat with my other wrap-around. Makes sense. Logical.
I did indeed get Altuve, who nothing more needs to be written about as he has returned first round value in the last four years which is what you would expect from a guy hitting third in that Astro line-up with decent power, great speed, and better BA. At the two/three turn I had a few weeks ago hoped Thor would be available, but then reality set in. One, the news stories of him hitting fastball speeds roughly akin to me flying through an all-you-can eat barbeque buffet was causing him to rise up to the first few picks in the 2nd round where also Strasburg was getting picked (the big four going as expected in the 1st Round) and two, drafting in NY with all those ever hopeful Mutts fans meant he would not be there for me.
Oh well. I felt sure I would have to settle for having the option of “settling” from at least three of (in my order of preference) Carrasco, DeGrom, Bumgarner, Verlander, and Severino. Not that you could not put a dimes difference on the five. It was really like a choice between honey blondes, brunettes, black, auburn, and that beautiful woman I saw on the subway who had a hair color that reminded me of BBQ sauce (three food references already…I must be hungry).
I should also have the choice of several power bats like Donaldson, Springer, or Dozier, or other bats like Bregman (going a bit early really in my opinion) or a “reach” for Benintendi, Yelich, or Abreu. This approach would leave me with two anchor bats, one anchor starter. Then the rest of the top ten rounds could flow with my approach being looking for one more starter, one closer, and maybe one catcher though I cared less about offensive roster construction and more about getting the best available regardless of position. “Value” if you will. Nothing new. Just building a core.
This, I think, would be really appropriate for this year. After last year’s homerun binge, there seems to me to be so many reasonable and available bats in the outfield, middle, and at the corners. Seems just about everyone hit 20+ HR and had nearly 70 runs and RBI’s. Recency bias maybe. Anyway, except for catcher and speed as a stat, the perverbal trees seem full of fruit, so grab what you can early. You can fill in later without sacrificing too much.
The New
As I was sitting at Junior’s masticating a piece of dead hog, a voice in my head said “open your mind to possibilities”. I looked around to see if a billboard prophet was offering me advice on profit, but no. Then I checked to see if I had taken my meds. I had. All normal...except the guy sitting next to me of course...
That leaves baseball. So I looked at my cheat sheets again. And several things jumped out. Remember those starters I would get a crack at? At the turn where I was drafting, the two-anchor pitchers strategy really jumped out. Why have one piece of cheesecake when you can have two? As always, it depends on what you give up. So I looked at the bats available at the 4/5 turn. These might be half a notch below what I was giving up, but still blue-chip. It could work. I could catch up adequately on offensive stats. And by taking two of the remaining “ace” starters, I would be denying at least one of my competitors an anchor, perhaps causing a minor disruption in their strategy.
So I went for it. Like I mentioned earlier, I had Altuve. All I needed was for at least three of those starters I mentioned to make it back to me. As luck would have it, my first choice was from my top four, and Roy “Homey” Ericson grabbed Severino. And it is not like I did not like Severino. He helped me win my league last year. It is just that of those five, he has the greatest chance of retrenching just a bit as some players do after their breakout year.
Anyway, I jumped on Carrasco (insert colorful local colloquial expression implying real fast here). He may not be Kluber, be he ain’t far behind. And in that division with no less than three teams rebuilding? Big arm (9.5+ K per nine) and one more thing I wanted to target. Great control with less than 2.5 BB per nine. You cannot predict wins, but evidence and history of superior underlying skills should give you the best chance (that is chance, no guarantees) of success. Happy me. Nailed it in the peanut gallery that is my mind!
But there was a cost. One minor slide had occurred. Available to me was Aaron Judge. And I passed. It is not that I think Judge would not be worth it there. I do think his big swing, besides causing irreparable damage to baseballs, also opens him up to generating a lot of breeze. His BA cannot help but suffer. This is picking nits or just Monday morning self-validation, but in any case, I did not think Judge was so good as to not be replaceable later.
Michael DeCavalcante could not pass on Judge. And I understand that, but he really did not want to go OF/OF with his first two picks. He noted to me that if he could have known Judge would make it back to him, HE would have taken Altuve. Oh well…Michael now has an embarrassment of riches in Trout/Judge and he grabbed Bumgarner with his second pick of the turn.
That left me with my #2 hoped for starter in DeGrom. He may not be Syndergaard, but his K per 9 and control is nearly as good. Again, great underlying skills. And both Carrasco and DeGrom had a few other things I was hoping for in my anchor(s). One, 55% or less fastball use, which means they have good confidence in their secondary pitchers and opposing batters cannot sit waiting on the heater. This is even more impressive as each has above average fastball speed (94-95 mph). And they use their sliders less than 25% of the time. I may be archaic, but I do think overuse of the slider can hurt arms (there are of course a few exceptions). And they have better than league average first pitch strike and swinging strike rate. And their ages are in that pitcher sweet spot (29-32). I feel like I basically just checked all of the wish-list boxes, times two. The peanut gallery goes wild!
At a cost. I could have had Judge or any of those other bats I mentioned, but mine was the not the only team to bear the cost. As it turned out, Roy grabbed Verlander (Roy, Michael and I grabbed a total of five pitchers at the turn) so with the Greinke concerns all of the ace starters were gone (at least according to my lists). Those teams that did not grab a pitcher in the first two rounds were (or maybe) a bit behind in the anchor starter class. Will one of the top pitchers disappoint? Absolutely. Will one of the pitchers still available be an “ace” next year? Of course. But for right now, only the high-end #2 pitchers are available (again, according to my lists).
And now I watch as 27 picks go by and all of those excellent bats I could have had are picked. When it came back to me, I grabbed some power in some very Judge-ish talent…Kris Davis. Their profiles are very similar, except I got him two rounds later. Should be steady power, but I (like I would have with Judge) have to give back some of Altuve’s BA.
So this brings up an opportunity. I am going to track Judge versus Davis, to see just what I have given up. Yes, Judge will crank HR in bunches and my stomach will churn, but what will the total impact be in 2018? Will do the same with DeGrom and the pitcher I probably would have taken in Cole. Be good to see where I land in the comparisons.
The prior night, at an auction, I had bought Dee Gordon, but made a mistake and did not get enough supporting speed in my opinion. Elvis Andrus, due to his power spike last year, has risen in the drafts compared to where he was picked last year (I think). He never has been a “Judy” (probably good for about 10 HR or 15 in this juiced ball era), but I picked him because he has been a fairly consistent 25 SB source with a distant history of more. And great BA over the last two years. And guess what? This late bloomer will not turn 30 until late summer, so he still has a chance to reclaim his former SB glory, skills-wise. And like I have seen the Oracle Dan Kenyon write so many times, once a player owns a skill….
By the time the draft made it back to me for the 6/7 turn, I had a decent offensive base with two MI and one OFer and two great starters. I wanted to get one of the better closers (better = relatively stable job security). And a cornerman with OF eligibility I am high on was coming back to me. But NOOOOOO….
Roy snaked Castellanos the pick before me. Not the last time he would do this either. For a nice guy, he sure is mean. So I decided on a little more disruption. Michael already had a closer (Osuna) and Kimbrel, Jansen, Knebel and Chapman were gone. So I grabbed Cody Allen (did I mention I was high on Cleveland this year?). Even if Michael grabbed another closer (which I did not expect him to), I would have some choice between Diaz, Rivero, or even Giles. I was right, so I grabbed Diaz. It was a mini-run as Rivero, Giles, Davis, and Iglesias went within the next few picks. By the end of the seventh round, five teams had no closer and no team other than me had two. Maybe not the smartest move given closer turnover, but I can pretty much mark closers of the to-do list and will not be scrambling for saves for the rest of the draft. I think my timing was just right.
But I am behind on offense again. Good core, but down raw numbers. This was not a time to gamble, so I grabbed a non-sexy pick in Kyle Seager. Ignoring ADP, I had three third basemen ranked side-by-side with little difference except one was just coming into their own (Castellanos), one had his potential career-year at age 28 prior to his big FA contract (Moustakas) and a pretty steady Seager. Should be a good (25-30) power source and if his BA rebounds a bit, will not hurt me there and maybe even will rebound to help. Coming back around seemed a good time to grab a better than “do-no-harm” catcher. Sanchez, Contreras, Posey, and Perez were of course gone. I lined up two possibles from the remaining pool in Realmuto and Gattis. I had Gattis in my auction and think he is going to have a good year, but went Realmuto. I think JT will play more, have that speed so rare in catchers, and will be traded to a better park at some point this year.
Now I have the next to the last pick for the 10th round. And there sits Jeff Samardzija. Mr. Hardluck. The man whose name may not be spelled properly (at least at first crack). I really like the Giants to be the team to push the Dodgers this year. And, other than the great K per 9 and being 33, he hits all my other markers (better than 94 mph average fastball, less than 25% slider, great control which means better than average first pitch strike). The 10th round had been mainly about pitchers (10 out of 15 picks) and my choice did not make Michael happy as he had Samardzija queued up.
He picked another starter and another pattern emerged. Michael, Roy and I all had five pitchers each in the first 10 rounds. Most other teams had three or four (Robert Rowe also had five pitchers), so for the next ten rounds, most other teams would be focused on their pitching staffs.
But I am pretty happy. And that is all that counts.
This blog is getting a bit long so I will condense the rest. Coming out of the break, I was covertly asking folks if they had a choice, would they want Lamb or Moustakas. They were generally unanimous, but it was academic. Michael picked Lamb so I grabbed Moose hoping he at least approaches last year’s numbers.
Checking my team and watching the rest of the league, two things I noted. One, I only have one OFer. Second, that next tier of pitchers are dropping. Coming back around I grabbed Steven Souza (Jr. not Sr.). I do not know how the humidor will hit him, but leaving Tampa for Arizona must be a plus. I will give back some BA, but hopefully will get a few steals with decent power in return. Last year I was really high on Kenta Maeda. Or just really high. Who knows? He does throw a few too many sliders for my taste, but again I get a control pitcher with better than league average FPK% and SWK%. He plays on a good team. A little health and bullpen avoidance and this is a good pick.
Maybe a mistake, but I locked up my second catcher at the 14/15 turn in Zunino and again I give back some BA. Could have gone Lucroy but his stint in Texas scared me off. Most I think rank Porcello as being lucky when he won his Cy Young, but I do not think he is as bad as his stats showed last year. A rebound candidate maybe in a tough league. Still only 29 if you can believe it.
At 16/17, I took Cozart. Another regression candidate after what I suspect was a career year. Still, LAA should be in the hunt this year and even if Cozart will not be able to take advantage of the Angels lowering the fence, I think this is a nice third infield pick. Coming back around I grabbed my third OFer, Corey Dickerson, whom I also have in my Auction league. Hitting second (I think) in Pittsburgh and I think a little overlooked. Should be at least solid and more than a little helpful to my team.
Now we get into gamble range. Speed is at a premium, so I grabbed Mallex Smith, less for myself but more to deny one of my league mates a chance to play catchup on speed. I need a first baseman and was going to grab Belt, who I feel is also undervalued, but he was poached (can an 18th round pick be a poach?) two picks before me, so coming around the corner I grabbed Morrison. 19th round is not bad, though he is another coming off his best year at age 29. A little more BA gone. Still, he may hit 4th in Minnesota.
And 20th is Hyun-Jin Ryu, a total gut-shot call. A flyer. A guess. Who knows, but I got him.
With Smith, I will round out my outfield and/or utility spot with Kepler (21st), Pence (24th), Heyward (25th…I still think he will have a positive bat one day), and Span (28th). Three more starters (Folty 22nd, Velasquez 23rd, and Tyler Anderson (27th). A back-up infielder who may hit third for a while in Lowrie (26th) at least until Oakland brings the rookie up. And a back-up corner in Valbuena (30th and I do not think Ohtani will DH as much as advertised).
So that is the 2018 version of my odd odyssey. I like my pitching and speed. Time will tell if I caught up on the power batting stats and whether I gave up too much BA in the process. Now the work really begins trying to out-manage some of the best in-season fantasy baseball managers in the game.
Good luck to all! Gonna miss you guys in Vegas! Let the games begin!