Post
by Edwards Kings » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:22 pm
A little late, but here we are at mid-point. Wanted to blog earlier but the World wanted me to work. Stupid World.
If you buy into the analogy that the NFBC Main is a marathon, I get the feeling I the others have let me set the pace hoping to be gassed for the sprint at the end. Maybe yes, maybe no, but in anyway I have been fortune to lead most of the year.
By the way, a fun fact about the Battle of Marathon. We all know the legend…after the Greek victory over the Persians (and the subsequent removal of all of their rugs), Pheidippides is said to have run 26 miles straight from Marathon to Athens to deliver the news of victory. It is said that Pheidippides ran non-stop and so fast that when he eventually reached Athens and delivered the message, he collapsed to death. This is not true…for his feat (or feet) of speed and endurance Pheidippides received some ultimate gifts such as a woman who bathed regularly (this was 490 BC after all), a herd of goats who did not as part of a lucrative endorsement deal with Nike, and a lifetime free pass to NOT have to attend any Mets games.
Anyway, back to my team. I could certainly use a Pheidippides. When I left the draft, with Altuve, Andrus, Souza, and Mallex Smith, I thought I had enough speed. Andrus went on the DL, Souza went on the DL, and Smith was not playing so like a dumb ass I cut him in order to have enough healthy players (early on, both my catchers were also on the DL). Well now I am last in my league and damn near last overall in speed. In six years as a full time player, Altuve has had one year of 56 steals, and the other five years from 30 to 38. Pretty stable and having just turned 28, there should be no age related decline. As we all know, speed doesn’t slump…snicker…so I expect Altuve to have a monster second half as going into this week he had only 12 steals for my team. He also had 24 HR in the last two years but only seven going into this week. That should have turned around or I will regret making him my second round pick even though the BA, runs scored and RBI’s are tracking pretty close to historical.
Andrus, whom you think you could count on for a couple of dozen SB, is back but as far as I can tell he has only attempted ONE SB ALL YEAR (and was caught). I guess a fractured elbow really impacted his running game….speed does not slump….and his OBP is right in line with his career average. I am not sure when we will know, but there is definitely something wrong here. I honestly was not expecting a repeat of the 2017 career year, but damn!
By position coming into this week, my catchers are great (Realmuto is trying his best to be the Marlins bonus baby and batting about .300) and Zunino (one of my many Mendoza’s and batting about .190). They have averaged about 12 HR each with 30 runs and 35 RBI’s, give or take. For catcher, especially if Realmuto lands well and Zunino can get his average even up to the Mendoza line, I will consider this “good”. Zunino is on a 10-day DL vacation, so maybe the rest will help.
On the corners, steady Kyle Seager, and “Remember me?” Mike Moustakas, anchor my CM and are giving me about what I expected as far as counting stats (both will end up somewhere around 30 HR with 100 RBI and 80 runs scored). Moustakas is has a good batting average every other year and this evidently ain’t his year. Seager is tracking to the worst BA of his career. He is not taking any walks, but when he makes contact he seems to be hitting the ball hard and in bad luck (26% hit rate). Maybe another second half performer.
First base has been a swamp for me with Logan Morrison manning the position for most of the year (I had Matt Adams for a while, but used him mainly in the UT role). The position has given me below average power and other counting stats and another below .200 BA. Right now on my roster I have four guys who claim position eligibility at 1B….Morrison, Duda, Chris Davis and Brad Miller hoping someone will give signs of getting hot though I would view “tepid” as an improvement.
In the middle, with Altuve and Andrus I am feeling pretty good especially if they can steal some bags to get me a few more point in SB (not too may available at the league level) at the overall level….even 10 more SB could be as many as 70.0 points, but I admit there are not better options out there and having two guys who so much value is placed on their ability to steal puts me in a bit of a Catch-22.
As an after though, I drafted Jed Lowrie in the 26th round, mainly because it was projected to hit third in a bad line-up. I did not think he would stick at in the three hole, but he has. I did not use him until Andrus got hurt, but he has still given me redemption like value (.289 BA, 13 HR, 52 RBI and 34 runs scored). My original third MI was Cozart, who went down about the time Andrus came back so Lowrie has really be gold. I did not expect Cozart to repeat his contract/career year stats and I was way too right. Getting hurt may have been the best thing he has done for my team, sad as that is to say. Jurickson Profar has been a $21 FA revelation…he can help here (qualifies at SS, is three games away from qualifying at 2B, but also OF, 3B and if he gets seven more games at 1B, will qualify everywhere except catcher). I have had to use him mainly in the OF, but he is certainly been good with counting stats (even some SB!) though his BA is less than .250 for me.
Speaking of OF, other than 1B, this has been my biggest challenge. I have pieced together a few quality AB but it is certainly not a strength. Kris Davis has been good, but I should have drafted Judge. With Souza down, I have used the kitchen sink method for #2 OFer (Profar mainly, but Span, Adams, Heredia, and Gordon too). Souza is hopefully back so maybe this can be more than a placeholder position. Corey Dickerson has been my #3 and early was hot, hit up in the line-up and produced. Lately, the power and production have gone MIA and he is hitting further down in the lineup. I thought this would be Max Kepler’s year to shine. Unless he really turns it around, it is not. Fifth OFer has been a little of everyone starting with Pence, then Profar, Hanson, Frazier, and Heredia. Now it appears Heyward has learned to hit better (over a .300 average over the last couple of weeks) and can be seen batting second for the Cubbies most days (even seeing some lefties). The power is not there, but he is putting up at least a few usable stats. I also took an $11 flyer on Jackie Bradley Jr. Another guy who has hit better over the last couple of weeks. He could play for me this weekend against the weak KC pitching staff.
Not sure how this will play out, but with Arcia sent down and the Brewers showing little love to Perez or Villar, I also picked up Brad Miller ($3). If they give him a few more starts at SS (he needs four, but Saladino is off the DL and will probably get most starts there), Miller could be another supersub for me with regular AB as he already qualifies at 2B and 1B. He is in the lineup for me this week with good results. Overall, I can challenge in RBI’s and HR. I have been slowly moving up in Runs, but there is a gulf waiting for me between 9.0 and 10.0 points. More guys will have to hit further up in their lineups to really make some traction there. I am pretty much swimming against the tide in SB and my target of a team .270 BA is a thing of the past. My team would collectively have to get pretty hot but maybe I can generate four or five more league points there (in a half week, I have already moved up one place…yippee!).
Pitching has been what has allowed me to pace the field, but injuries (Velasquez and now Suter) are piling up. I have gotten Carrasco back (tonight), so that helps, but coming into this week I have gotten steady starts and stats from Carrasco (15), Degrom (17), Porcello (17), Velasquez (12…thinking he may be back from the 10 days next week), old “Give ‘Em Hell for Five” Foltynewicz (14) and Maeda (10). I blogged earlier about the fill-ins, but having six guys with double digit starts is great.
On the closers, Diaz is out of control. I had F-Rod in 2008 and this feels like that. The difference between now and 2008 is I actually have another closer in Allen. Between the two, I am generally keeping up with others in my league using three or more closers. If the goal is to get at least 80% of available points in this category in the overall, I am exceeding that.
Besides Saves, my good fortune has given me good pitching points. Going into this week I had 64.0 available points and a top ten staff for the overall. Tonight I have like four starts so this will tell me if I retain my lofty positon. I am having great luck with K’s (10.1 K Rate), ERA 12.0 points, and WHIP 14.0 points.
So pitching is going to keep me in the game. My bats need to produce more to keep me at the top, but given the competition in this league, it would surprise me very much if any team from my league finishes in a Main Event Overall money position. There are 34 leagues in the Main Event. All things being equal (they are not), most leagues #1 will appear in the top 34. Coming into this week, Andre Bourcier and Richie Czuprynski was the top in the overall in 54th place (1st in my league, though in a virtual tie with Andre and Richie, I was in 65th). Roy Ericson (III) in 74th was the only other in my league in the top 100. Gonna be tight, but I have exactly half my money left (behind only stingy Roy and basically with the sae amount as Marc Perlmutter), so I have the bucks to invest. I have not won any $100+ bids and only placed very few. I have had five winning bids of between $31 and $33 as my highest amounts paid to the FAAB drain. I am typically cheap but honestly I haven’t been fired up by too many available players. Most of the teams are down to $300 or less, so $100 bids may become even scarcer. Except for Roy, who is perched up on his FA money like a dragon waiting for dwarves….
Anyway….light reading. Good luck.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
