Presenting YOUR 100K_Team

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 19, 2007 5:43 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

How do you project a guy for that and then tell everyone not to take him? my guess is a low reliability factor. in addition, if his contact doesn't improve, howard could be hitting in the .280's (or lower

) very soon. just a matter of looking at data and seeing where it fits. very low contact hitters also have very low BA's. the floor on howard is quite low in my opinion and not worth the risk. [/QUOTE]Boy, you are quite the student of Shandler. But, look, if he really thinks the contact rate is going to hurt him, then he should project him accordingly. If Howard could be hitting .280 and Shandler projects him for .303, then Shandler should assume that either he has a very high probability of hitting better than .303 (maybe 75%) though not much better--or that he is just as likely to hit .326 as he is to hit .280. That is what a mean projection is. Beyond that, players of exceptional skill tend to be affected differently by things like contact rate than your average Joe's. At any rate, if I get *stuck* with simply a player who hits .280 with 40 homeruns, it's not the end of the world. But that's still the floor, not the most probable situation.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Mar 19, 2007 11:14 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

Boy, you are quite the student of Shandler. But, look, if he really thinks the contact rate is going to hurt him, then he should project him accordingly. If Howard could be hitting .280 and Shandler projects him for .303, then Shandler should assume that either he has a very high probability of hitting better than .303 (maybe 75%) though not much better--or that he is just as likely to hit .326 as he is to hit .280. That is what a mean projection is. Beyond that, players of exceptional skill tend to be affected differently by things like contact rate than your average Joe's. At any rate, if I get *stuck* with simply a player who hits .280 with 40 homeruns, it's not the end of the world. But that's still the floor, not the most probable situation. again, guys who can't make contact, are less likely to hit for a high batting average. i don't need shandler to tell me that. if you don't make contact, how could you possibly get a hit?

in summary, howard should be a very good player in 2007. but IMO he carries too much risk to even warrant a mid first round pick. good luck with him.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:33 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

C R.Martin (12); Pierzynski (16)

1B Delgado (4); Kotchman (21)

2B Kinsler (6); Phillips (11)

SS Drew (10); Bartlett (24)

3B Teahan (9)

OF M.Ramirez (2); Suzuki (3); Quentin (14); Victorino (15); L.Scott (18); K.Johnson (20); J.Hamilton (25)

U Thome (5)

SP J.Santana (1); B.Myers (8); A.Reyes (13); J.Shields (17); Oliver Perez (19); Nolasko (27); Carmona (29)

RP Saito (7); Coffey (22); Gregg (23); Madson (26); Bray (28); Reistma (30)Boy, I hear you about picks going much early than ADP and how I had my draft planned. Felt like I was counterpunching all day. I do not like my team, but that is how it goes sometimes.

Looks like you did a nice job of getting some batting beef in Rounds 2, 4, and 5 Mark. Makes up nicely for the opportunity cost of taking Johan in Round #1. After that, lots of young guys with upside. Looks like that was your strategy. Hope it pays off.

I like the Shields pick, though he went about that early in my league too, which surprised me a bit. Looks like you will flush out a save opportunity or two from your relievers, then use the FAAB to pump up the starters a little (like I said, I like Shields, but he may not help you much with Wins). Don't like the O. Perez pick, but that is just personal and a 19th round gamble will not kill you if it does not pay off.

Good Luck!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Mar 20, 2007 2:29 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Boy, I hear you about picks going much early than ADP and how I had my draft planned. Felt like I was counterpunching all day. I do not like my team, but that is how it goes sometimes.

Looks like you did a nice job of getting some batting beef in Rounds 2, 4, and 5 Mark. Makes up nicely for the opportunity cost of taking Johan in Round #1. After that, lots of young guys with upside. Looks like that was your strategy. Hope it pays off.

I like the Shields pick, though he went about that early in my league too, which surprised me a bit. Looks like you will flush out a save opportunity or two from your relievers, then use the FAAB to pump up the starters a little (like I said, I like Shields, but he may not help you much with Wins). Don't like the O. Perez pick, but that is just personal and a 19th round gamble will not kill you if it does not pay off.

Good Luck! Kings - Perez has a chance of winning 15+ games because of the Mets offense. If he could get his head straight he will K 200+. He has the skill, it's just mental at this point. His spring so far has been dominant. I see this kid being a great risk/reward gamble. I woulda taken him before a lot of the other "name" starters that got picked rounds before him.

Shields screams breakout this year. He is another one of my players having a nice spring. Ya his wins may be capped at 10 or 11, but his innings should be quality and they should bring some nice K's.

ALL-IN JD · Post by **ALL-IN JD** » Tue Mar 20, 2007 2:46 am

GG, love Shields as well, think is going to have a very solid season, but have to humbly disagree about Perez. The guy can destroy your pitching numbers singlehandedly. I would never risk putting him in my lineup. He may get some wins and some k's but that ERA and WHIP could be real scary. I think his ship has sailed, IMO.

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:07 am

Hey Mark

Good meeting the infamous 1 in NY Like Kotchman and phillips was a nice value pick Decent team with Johan at #1 Spend early and wisely to fill gaps 1 more starter would be nice if Oliver becomes too erratic I had 6th pick in NY#7 Rate and Rip

1b Konerko 3

2b Kinsler 9

3b A-Rod 1

SS Hanley 2

MI J Lopez/JJ Hardy

CI Lowell

DH Thome 4

C Martin

C Olivo

OF Young 6

OF Duffy

OF Kearns

OF Monroe

OF Sosa/WMo Pena/Stewart

SP Felix 7

SP Kazmir 8

SP Zito 10

SP A Reyes 16

SP Westbrook

SP Lowry

SP/RP Villanueva

Cl BJ Ryan 5

Cl Gagne 11

Cl Weathers 18

RP Julio

RP H Owens

RP Orvella

Marty

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:09 am

Originally posted by fireballs:

GG, love Shields as well, think is going to have a very solid season, but have to humbly disagree about Perez. The guy can destroy your pitching numbers singlehandedly. I would never risk putting him in my lineup. He may get some wins and some k's but that ERA and WHIP could be real scary. I think his ship has sailed, IMO. Perez is certainly a risk. But where I diagree with you assessment is that...

1. He's ONLY 25 years old. A lot of good pitchers had bad seasons when they were pitching in the bigs at the age of 23 and 24!!!

2. He's showed that he can be dominate over the course of a season...meaning he owns the skills.

3. I haven't heard anything about him being hurt, so I believe the issue is mental.

4. He picked up his game the tail end of last season, and he's been dominate this spring training.

All in all, perez justified a 19th round pick with his enormous upside. If he doesn't pan out I'll drop his ass...just like 40% of the owners are going to do with their 19th round selection.

ALL-IN JD · Post by **ALL-IN JD** » Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:10 am

Marty, like your offense alot but I think you are going to have issues with BA. I dont like Zito at all but like King Felix, Kazmir and Reyes quite a bit. The bottom half of your rotation might cause some sleepless nights but thats what they have FAAB for.

ALL-IN JD · Post by **ALL-IN JD** » Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:12 am

I hear ya GG but over the course of his young career he has been alot more bad than good. Even while he picked it up over the tail end of last year, his k's were down. That being said, you do have the ultimate recourse, as you said. Just drop his ass! More importantly, lets root for 14 wins for Jamie Shields with solid numbers across the board!

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Mar 20, 2007 4:16 am

Not bad, Mark...not bad.

Can't wait for April Fools Day!

~Lance

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:19 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

How do you project a guy for that and then tell everyone not to take him? my guess is a low reliability factor. in addition, if his contact doesn't improve, howard could be hitting in the .280's (or lower

) very soon. just a matter of looking at data and seeing where it fits. very low contact hitters also have very low BA's. the floor on howard is quite low in my opinion and not worth the risk. [/QUOTE]Boy, you are quite the student of Shandler. But, look, if he really thinks the contact rate is going to hurt him, then he should project him accordingly. If Howard could be hitting .280 and Shandler projects him for .303, then Shandler should assume that either he has a very high probability of hitting better than .303 (maybe 75%) though not much better--or that he is just as likely to hit .326 as he is to hit .280. That is what a mean projection is. Beyond that, players of exceptional skill tend to be affected differently by things like contact rate than your average Joe's. At any rate, if I get *stuck* with simply a player who hits .280 with 40 homeruns, it's not the end of the world. But that's still the floor, not the most probable situation. [/QUOTE]Very true BJoak - Just when the league figured out you can't pitch to Howard, he got BETTER. Hit .355 in the 2nd half with numbers that are unimaginable. Everybody thinks that Pujols is the best and there can't be any better. The fact that Howard is hitting for a high average is no accident. He was hitting in the high averages in the minors as well and I'm looking for him to have a another monster year this year as well. It seems like it's the "popular" opinion to think Howard will regress, that's only because we haven't seen someone like Howard in awhile save Barry Bonds. You might see him overtake Pujols as the best fantasy baseball player today. He is THAT good.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:32 am

Hi,

I like Howard allot, I don't think that even if he has another monster season though you can simply say he is the best fantasy player. A big part of being the best is the least risk. Look at Pujolis, he just has much more track record of success - note the last 3 years of batting .330!! If Ryan does 3-4 years of 50-60 HR and bats +320, then you could have an argument, but for now, I think Pujolis is pretty safe

Spy