Attn: Todd

AmericanDreams · Post by **AmericanDreams** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 5:28 pm

On May 15, 2004 you wrote the following:

"Perhaps this is a bit of hyperbole, but this is pretty much the rotoplayer's search for the Holy Grail. It is a direction I am going and have two different ideas on how to get there."

What were your two ideas and how have they progressed over the past three years?

(no problem if you'd rather answer this during your next live chat)

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 6:53 pm

Which Holy Grail was I talking about? I have no secrets -- please refresh my memory and I'll update.

AmericanDreams · Post by **AmericanDreams** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 5:20 am

Thanks Todd. BP Unfiltered linked to a 3 year old discussion on the MB forums. You guys were first discussing SGP and REP, and that is what led to your comment. I was just intrigued.

www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=253

AmericanDreams · Post by **AmericanDreams** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 4:44 am

Todd did you ever get a chance to look at this?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 5:29 am

Sorry, been on the road with the First Pitch Forum tour.

We are calling that line of thinking "game theory", borrowing from the poker lingo. The principle basis is the distribution within each stat category, on the average, is NOT LINEAR. Plus there is some differing variability inherent to the predictability of each category.

Our newest writer, Gary Jennison uses these ideas to justify the typical 65/35 split we see in auction bidding. I have used it to make my dollar values more practical in terms of usefulness based on the uneven spread of the stolen bases category. We're working on adding error bars to projections as well.

All this feeds into what I call the Scrabble Theory, which I was going to use as a weekly essay but is perfect to introduce here.

Who wins a game of Scrabble?

The player who knows the most words would probably have an advantage.

What if the players had equal vocabularies -- who wins?

Probably the one with the better letters.

What if the letters were pretty much even?

Most often, the winner is the player that best takes advantage of double and triple word scores, builds off of other words, etc.

Now relating to fantasy baseball, a vocabulary is like knowing the players. Say we all know the players equally. The letters are like injuries and having our reserves get more prominent roles. Say this evens out as well. Who wins the fantasy baseball league? The player that most efficiently allocates their resources. They don't win the batting average category by .005 and fall short in power. They don't finish at the bottom of three or four players clustered real close in a particular category. This is like using the double and triple word scores and what we call game theory.

Does that make any sense?

[ March 12, 2007, 11:30 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

AmericanDreams · Post by **AmericanDreams** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 7:16 am

Makes a lot of sense. Very interesting post.

I guess you never know when your writings will surface on another website 3 years later, huh?