As to the 2017 prep and draft, first and foremost I want to congratulate Greg and Tom on another (now expected but never underappreciated) weekend. Flawless and enjoyable. I enjoyed catching up with everyone (too many to list) and missed quite a few notable in their absences (Dan, Dave in particular) Congrats to Dave Potts on the Hall of Fame induction. I think they are considering a wing for the NFBC at Cooperstown so please be prepared to sit for your bust.
And to Mike Massoto…GREAT event. I enjoyed meeting your better half and thanks to all involved for letting a deaf guy help facilitate the draft. I enjoyed getting a chance to really have a few more in-depth conversations with folks.
And the draft itself…Mark was a real gentleman and a pleasure to sit next to. More or less we seemed to be drafting off a different set of pages (mine were probably written on toilet paper), so I do not believe we ever really stole too many players from each other which was good because plenty of that occurred by other players. Thanks to Brady, KJ, Nikko and all the rest. It was certainly the cool kids table.
2017 Draft Prep – This year, I really had no clue. I always think I have a clue going in, but results have always proved I do not, but this year I really could not seem to put my finger on any sort of flow that I could turn into a workable plan. Maybe it was the power upsurge last year as I really couldn’t see real pockets of power…rather it was like there were power sources everywhere as last year everyone seem to be capable of going yard at any time. So instead, I decided to clear a little of the underbrush and let the chips fall where they may. When I say underbrush, I mean those single categories or positions that typically give me fits. Homeruns, RBI’s, Runs and Batting Average are the trees of a five by five, steals are the underbrush. ERA, WHIP, K’s and Wins are the big wood for pitching, with Saves being the specialty category. Middle Infielders, Corner Men, and Outfielders make your offense as proud as a first born son. Catchers are more like the afterbirth of Fantasy Baseball. So, I knew I was going to commit valuable draft picks early enough to:
1. Lock down some real speed but try to avoid the Judy’s who would go later in the draft due to BA challenges or positional questions. They would be kind of like taking your cousin to the prom (though that has certainly happened where I am from).
2. I was going to draft two of the top 15 closers and after that, there was just too much noise.
3. I was going to draft two of the top ten (or at least how I ranked them) catchers, accepting that three I would definitely not get (Posey, Lucroy, who I had last year and loved, and Sanchez). I guessed (right) that they would go too high even for this so-called strategy.
After that, I was going to go with best available player with no real regard to position until it became critical. That does not mean I wasn’t targeting certain players. More about that as I bore you with a pick-by-pick.
Boring Pick-by-Pick – I went straight butter on my KDS as to be honest, this year like a few in the past, I just could not see an intermediate advantage to being early, middle, or late. Each seemed to have distinct advantages. Sure, I would have liked to start out with Trout or Mookie, but given what was available in the first 30-45 picks, I just could not see how it was critical. I ended up with the seventh pick. Going in, I had to believe that Trout, Mookie, Kershaw (for everyone who got/paid for him, I hope I am wrong, but I just do not trust him this year, especially not in the first round), or Altuve. That would leave me with a pool of two or three of Bryant, Arenado, Machado (which honestly, I would hate to live off the difference between the three), Goldy, Harper and Turner. A big flaw (I guess) is I will not draft a Turner until he has seen a few more MLB pitches (yes, that means no Dansby for me). I thought the same last year for Correa. Anyway, Turner would not be picked by me, though I thought Mark might (I was wrong). I was really sweating having to choose between Harper, Bryant and Arenado. I know Harper is an ass, but I watched several AB this year in Spring Training and man was he squaring up on the ball. They will NOT be able to get the high heat by him this year, but he is such an injury risk, I was not sure I wanted him in the first round. On the flip side, he could quite easily be the #1 fantasy stud this year. Risk/Reward. As it turns out, I did not have to flip the coin. Dave Smith grabbed him with #5 (asshole
). Mark leaned over and told me I never would have gotten him anyway. Mark took Bryant, so poor me, I took Arenado. I had written earlier about what I thought of Arenado, so if this is a kick in the johnnies, I will take a few more like it. If I could just paste in either of 2015 or 2016, I would be happy. He is only 25, so there certainly is the chance there is Triple Crown upside here.
In discussing with several folks, I said I did not think Starling Marte would make it back to me (9th pick of the second round), but if he did, I said I could not imagine any other player there that would be better for my team. With Arenado anchoring four categories, Marte, even though he will bat fourth in the Pirate lineup, would anchor my stolen base category, have great BA, and won’t hurt (and potentially help) other counting stats except HR. And Marte is no Judy.
Well, I got to meet Todd Whitestone (and his son) and he seemed like such a nice guy until he grabbed Marte with the 8th pick of the second round. Ok, he is still a nice guy, but that was really a stinger.
In the probable event that Marte did not make it too me, I decided to get a top tier starter, who were dropping about like you would expect (Kershaw 2nd, Scherzer 10th, Bumgarner 14th, Thor 15th, Sale 17th) with quite a few dropping in the first 20 or so picks. The last, in my mind, of the 1A starters to me was Kluber. There are certainly other starters that could easily be your anchor, but Kluber I think is in that half a cut above.
Coming back around, with a batting/power anchor and a four category starter anchor, I decided to go ahead and get a steals anchor. I reached for Dee Gordon a bit (who was normally going early in the fourth) as I did not think he would make it back to me. This is about stats construction for me and though he may not steal has much as Hamilton, Gordon has better BA and no one really pushing him for the lead off position. It was a stretch pick. If it works great, if not, well…
Win or whine, I reached another point where I made a roster construction call that honestly could go either way. It was becoming obvious that this league was valuing starting pitching very high. Between my next two picks, eleven more starters would go (bringing the total to 19 starters in the first four and a half rounds). One of my next two picks SHOULD have been one of the later first tier or top second tier starters. But I had the hots this year for both Andrew McCutchen and Matt Carpenter. At 30, I just do not buy that McCutchen’s best days are behind him. Carpenter is so rock solid and versatile (1st, 3rd, and 2nd eligibility). Problem is both were going around the middle of the 5th round. So I reached for McCutchen and I have another guy hitting third in a good offensive line up. Now I had to wait for Carpenter. If he made it to me, fine. If not, like Marte, I would have picked another starter (like Kenta Maeda). Carpenter did make it back to me and I have ANOTHER guy hitting third.
I have now developed core strength on my teams’ offense. Three guys with plus to plus-plus power, great BA, middle-of-the-order counting stats on good offensive teams, and a good base of SB. But there is a cost. The top SP are leaving the board fast. Also, nine of the top closers are gone in a closer-run. At this stage and accepting I wanted two of the top fifteen closers, I could either join the closer run, or pick another top starter. I wrote down one name…”Maeda”…if he made it back to me, I would take him. If not, I would go closer. Mark stung me a bit on this one as he grabbed him just before my pick. Maeda is going to be the best Dodger pitcher this year and it is my fault I do not have him. C’est la vie.
Consolation prize was Craig Kimbrel (always a Brave in my mind) in the sixth. Banking that that second half was an anomaly rather than a trend, I locked down what should again be a top five closer on a team that should have a lot of save opportunities.
NOW pick a starter, right. Instead, I decide to piss on the third rail and further wait on starters. I have several starters in mind that SHOULD be there (despite evidence otherwise) tenth or later, so instead I decide to give back a little of my BA buffer and take advantage of a little offense that had dropped due to the closer/starter runs. Rumblin’, stumblin’ Trumbo had slipped, maybe because of a bad spring, but the guy is only 31, and hits in Camden, though he is my first guy not batting third (fifth behind Machado and Davis though he could switch with Davis when the right arm is on the mound). He also falls into a very good pattern I am developing of taking guys with plus/plus power (above average hctx), plus flyball rates, and on good offensive teams (Gordon as the exception on all counts).
So now I am looking for three things over the next few rounds. Starters, a closer, and some speed to accent Gordon (do not want all my eggs in one basket). Though a few speed guys go before my next pick, there is only one closer I consider Top Fifteen left, so I jump on Robertson. I think he will land on a contender, so this is a way for me to just close down closers and concentrate on other needs. This should set me up fine in saves, especially if there is any rebound in control from Robertson. Guys really are not squaring up on him, so this is possible.
Another warning sign happens as one of my pitchers who I thought would be there for me later goes in McCullers. Cassavetes wisely grabs him. I can stop the starting pitching bleeding on my team now, but I make another conscious decision to still wait, no matter the consequences. One more good stolen base guy and I probably have half or more of the SB I think I will need. I grab Lorenzo Cain, another guy hitting third, but a good 25+ SB source who will not hurt my other counting stats (well, not HR too bad) and should grab back some of the BA I just gave up. Yes, giving up on starters is bad, but I like this pick even with the health risk.
More of my targeted pitching (Taillon, Moore, Paxton) goes (pitch ADP out the window as these guys are going two or three rounds early) and that is going to cost me. Still, coming back to me, two bats have slipped with everyone reaching for pitching. Both bats play and hit third. One is a little more power, one is a little more BA. Otherwise they are mirror images almost (only a year separates their age). I do not have to flip a coin because Evan Longoria has long been a favorite of mine. It makes sense as I have a Judy on my team and the extra power is welcome. Mark snaps up the other (Turner) with the next pick.
I am through ten rounds and I have great power, great speed, only one BA risk out of seven offensive players, what should be great other offensive counting stats, and great (or at least very good) closers. And one starting pitcher. Ho-hum. Time to roll the bones.
So the next two rounds I grab two risky starters. One is Matt Harvey, the other is one of the last of my targets available, Robbie Ray. Before grabbing Harvey, I had two other guys on a list of four. The others, Pineda and Velasquez, went between my two picks. If Harvey can stay healthy enough to pitch more than 160 innings, this is a good pick. If not, or if he cannot find the plate, the gamble was not worth it.
Ray is electric and like electricity, he is very dangerous. He certainly can help make up some K-deficiency, but I may sink my ERA and WHIP. With just a LITTLE more control and a LITTLE more luck in his HR/FB rate, this is gold. Otherwise I have crapped out rollin dem bones…
Ahhh….but what about catchers? By this time, six have gone, so since I am feeling SOOOOO much better about my starting pitching, I grab Matt Wieters. He should end up being a top ten catcher (for what that is worth) even if he is hitting down in the Nuts line-up. He typically carries a nice line-drive and good flyball rate, with good contact/hctx. I guess we can stop waiting for that next gear from him (like I thought was around the corner in ’12 and ’13), but a late career power surge is not out of the question.
If I rank my targets, which I had hoped to be my fifth, sixth and potentially seventh starters rather than my entire starting pitching staff after Kluber, Jharel Cotton was the top of my third tier of targets. He is just so young and will play on a very bad team. So, if you do not have enough starters, go ahead and grab another demi-closer, right? Jenmar Gomez was available to me in the fifteenth because he is really bad (at least in us number-guys) and has better talent behind him. I hope to get about ten saves from him before his is replaced. If that happens, I am good.
For my next five, I grab my second catcher (Vogt, who should bat second most days in Oakland), Napoli (with the catchers and Trumbo, my fourth BA risk, but the epitome of cheap power batting third in Texas), Starlin Castro (really should have grabbed shortstop here), Ellsbury (10 HR and 20 SB…ok), and Luis Severino (Severino and Ray…living on the edge). I then grab Gardner (basically Ellsbury’s brother from a different mother), Matt Andriese (any other division besides the AL East, I would be happier with this pick) and Wei-Yen Chen (not a “stuff” pitcher, but better than a streamer).
Then I close it out with Avisail Garcia (who else are the White Sox gonna play?), Jesse Chavez (in the Oakland lineup and can be good until he runs out of gas), Andrelton Simmons (my first shortstop, so will be looking to upgrade here if he does not continue to show the speed he had in the second half of last year), Joe Mauer (forgotten man who will not hurt you in three categories…nice back-up who bats third in a bad lineup), Shawn Kelley (could be a closer if the Nats do not trade for Robertson or when Crusty Baker finally pulls his head out of his own ass), Hyun Soo Kim (don’t really need another back-up outfielder, already dropped) and Tyler Thornburg (wanted to handcuff Kimbrel…didn’t know he was hurt…already dropped).
So there it is. I tried to look my best...or at least pretend to.
Man, am I going to be streaming starting pitching. I think my offense is way above the fold and my closers/catchers should be contributors. Kluber is great. Everyone else is iffy. See you in the FA pool!
Good luck all and as always, enjoyed seeing all of you that I saw.
