Drafting VALUE=Less Risk

[DOUGHBOYS]

Very helpful...

Encarnacion is a whacker.

Votto is a walker.

...got it!

Still laughing

[MadCow Sez]

Oh Good God, Wayne! You comment about how your supervisors don't give you time to do important shit (like draft prep when slots are announced)....and yet you still find gems like this? Can I be your apprentice?

[bjoak]

Sincerely, thanks for the post. I'm not challenging everyone, it's just that people argue when I say so much but never say what they do. I'm sure you enjoy your prep process. I'm also starting to agree with you on the podcast front. I listen to them because I love baseball and it is enjoyable to me but I get so sick of hearing the same garbage over and over again. Where you get upset when they talk about value I get upset when they talk about generalities that they cannot quantify.

Yep, I think we're talking about the same thing. When wanting to be very general, they'll use the 'value' word to make them sound smart.
I want to know specifics.

A month ago, I heard a podcast when I was jonesing for any baseball commentary.
It was said that Encarnacion had much more 'value' than Votto.
Now, I know most of you know how I feel about Votto, but what a stupid thing to say!
Encarnacion and Votto are completely different entities that are only compared because of their position.
Encarnacion is a whacker. Votto is a walker.
As such, Encarnacion will hit for more homers and rbi. Votto will hit for higher average.
Each player has his own purpose.
It is stupid to say that one has more 'value' over the other.
I may be looking for batting average, knowing that I am targeting power players later in a draft.
Votto would be the man for that job over Encarnacion (ugh).
To summarily say that Encarnacion has more 'value' than Votto, may make the podcaster sound smart, but it comes across as being very dumb.

I get what you're saying, but to me, the beauty of numbers is that I can model a draft scenario in seconds. I can put in a high average player and target power later in the draft and then reverse it an the system tells me which is the better decision. Or I can compare taking Buster Posey early and an outfielder later vs. a crap catcher and say, Ryan Braun early. I can see who looks like the most underrated player in every round (using ADP) and how everyone else ranks just by pressing enter. I can see the most underrated player at each position and where everyone else ranks. Here's a big one: I can draft Trout and understand which player I should take in the 23rd round who doesn't completely negate his, erhem, worth.

These are decisions everyone struggles with and keep in mind I am studying the hell out of everyone just like you, but by forming my thoughts into numbers rather than words I can do an extreme amount of modeling to understand the best draft scenarios and be more prepared for idiosyncrasies and eventualities when I'm in a draft round. This is why all my picks take two seconds in an online draft and I clean the shower between rounds. I know who I like, how much I like them, and I've modeled every draft scenario.

[Edwards Kings]

Oh Good God, Wayne! You comment about how your supervisors don't give you time to do important shit (like draft prep when slots are announced)....and yet you still find gems like this? Can I be your apprentice?

Glad you liked it...looking forward to catching up with you!!!