Questions For 2017

[DOUGHBOYS]

We start the PreMature E-Draftulation League in around two weeks.
The first round seems to have the usual suspects, only in a different order.

Trout
Donaldson
Bryant
Machado
Betts
Altuve
Arenado
Kershaw
Rizzo
Scherzer
M Cabrera
Harper
Goldschmidt

Each will see the first round more than not.
But now what?
Fringe first rounders like Encarnacion and Bautista will be moving to parts unknown.
It's doubtful that they find better surroundings than those of Toronto.
Do we trust Giancarlo Stanton? Somebody will.
Is Brian Dozier a first rounder?

The players expected to take a big leap, did not.
Carlos Correa now blends in with all the other great looking shortstops.
George Springer didn't leap.
Starling Marte ran like Billy Hamilton. Unfortunately, displaying the same power.
Kyle Schwarber is an outfielder.
AJ Pollock has proven he can play with the best of them.
Worse, he's even better at not playing.
AJ stands for 'Asset Jeopardy'.

Andrew McCutchen has played his way out of the first round and maybe second.
I simply don't trust Villar or Myers to consider them as top drawer players.
Is Kyle Hendricks, Greg Maddux? Or a one-hit wonder?
Which Davis? Khris or Chris?
Catchers are like going to an opera.
The cleavage (Gary Sanchez) is nice to look at, but overall, boring.

Do we know who's better, Sano or Franco? Not really.
What do we expect from Greinke?
From Cueto? Does he stay with the Giants?
From Cespedes? Does he stay with the Mets?
What about Daniel Murphy? Can he return to the same numbers or be overdrafted for this year's?
Dallas Keuchel? Danny Salazar? Danny Duffy? Danny Thomas? Sorry, carried away by Danny's.

So many questions. And none of us have the answers.
Which makes this a top notch game.
I'll post the results of the first five rounds of the PreMature on these Boards.

[headhunters]

this is the time of year dan starts talking like a politician- no matter how many times he says stolen bases and good catchers don't matter- it just won't make it true.

[Bronx Yankees]

These early drafts are the best of the DCs. No ADP. No group-think. No consensus. Picks all over the place. Love it.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

this is the time of year dan starts talking like a politician- no matter how many times he says stolen bases and good catchers don't matter- it just won't make it true.

Nah, they matter.
Like Tight Ends in football.
Well, not really. There is no Gronk in baseball.
Nobody that really dominates the position.
Catchers matter. But I'll be damned if I know which one's will matter next year

[marknym]

looking forward to it. are there often or ever openings in this lg? not asking for this season, but maybe future season consideration.

thanks.

[DOUGHBOYS]

looking forward to it. are there often or ever openings in this lg? not asking for this season, but maybe future season consideration.

thanks.

We had a 15 for 15 retention this year.
Last year, I believe one person was replaced.
A great league.
I'll put you on the list for openings, Mark.
As well as our first premature DC that starts just a few weeks afterwards.

[marknym]

thank you Dan.

[DOUGHBOYS]

You bet, Mark.

Speaking of catchers...
The King of catchers is Buster Posey. He has been for a few years.
Taken as high as the second round in a lot of drafts last year.
If we take out his injured year, Posey has career lows in hr/rbi/avg
What do we do with that?
I believe we will punish him.
His adp will be closer to that of Lucroy, instead of being the automatic first catcher drafted. Lucroy, with almost twice as many homers as Buster.

Just a note, Posey has not hit a home run since July 16. Almost two months.

[Bronx Yankees]

I'd also add that Lucroy hitting in the middle of the Rangers' stacked lineup, and with the ability to play 1B and now also DH every now and then, seems more attractive now than he was last drafting season. Moreover, the Giants' lineup looks really bad these days. Not sure Span and Pagan are really great table-setters for Posey going into 2017. After investing heavily in starting pitching last off-season, it will be interesting to see how much the Giants are willing to spend this coming off-season on a few bats and a closer.

Mike

[Sebadiah23]

My questions for 2017 are more general, because they apply to so many players who shared the same narrative.

1. Will the additional jump in HRs for hitters that neutered the comparitive value of power hitters and fly ball pitchers (against the rest of the field) continue to wreak havoc on those player groups while propping up the "just barely" homer crew that saw doubles drop and homers rise across the league, and whatever type(s) of pitchers excel in this hitting new environment.

2. Is this new hitting environment here to stay? Will a late homer plunge signal a correction in baseball manufacturing and/or umpire strikezone judgement.

3. Will people forget all of this in a few months (or even now) and invent individual narratives about each player's career arc that led to their sudden rise in HRs or HRs allowed? I see it happening already and it's hard not to chuckle. Freddie Galvis people. Freddie F-ing Galvis, AKA, the human prospect placeholder/utility man turned beast slugger. For every exception like Posey and Marte, there are 10 guys who have hit 10 extra homers out of the blue, turning Punch and Judy middle infielders and burners into 5-cat forces, and killing the value of lower K flyball pitchers who previously excelled with control and poor contact. HR/RBI guys, like 1Bs in particular, were a train wreck as a group, as their meal ticket categories got so diluted in comparative value.

[marknym]

My questions for 2017 are more general, because they apply to so many players who shared the same narrative.

1. Will the additional jump in HRs for hitters that neutered the comparitive value of power hitters and fly ball pitchers (against the rest of the field) continue to wreak havoc on those player groups while propping up the "just barely" homer crew that saw doubles drop and homers rise across the league, and whatever type(s) of pitchers excel in this hitting new environment.

2. Is this new hitting environment here to stay? Will a late homer plunge signal a correction in baseball manufacturing and/or umpire strikezone judgement.

3. Will people forget all of this in a few months (or even now) and invent individual narratives about each player's career arc that led to their sudden rise in HRs or HRs allowed? I see it happening already and it's hard not to chuckle. Freddie Galvis people. Freddie F-ing Galvis, AKA, the human prospect placeholder/utility man turned beast slugger. For every exception like Posey and Marte, there are 10 guys who have hit 10 extra homers out of the blue, turning Punch and Judy middle infielders and burners into 5-cat forces, and killing the value of lower K flyball pitchers who previously excelled with control and poor contact. HR/RBI guys, like 1Bs in particular, were a train wreck as a group, as their meal ticket categories got so diluted in caparative value.

some great points Sebadiah -- and as for your last one, I too see this everywhere, people making references to a player's great year and ignoring the context of the MLB-wide jump in homers... lots of tweets from beat writers and even fantasy analysts saying guys are "breaking out." I saw a tweet last week from an Indians writer saying something like, 'for all of you who said Carlos Santana never hit 30hr, well...' Galvis is a great example too. Obviously some people are aware, but I'm somewhat surprised by how many seem to be oblivious. Could be something to take advantage of next year, but as you also mentioned, not something to bank of in case the trend reverses.

[marknym]

You bet, Mark.

Speaking of catchers...
The King of catchers is Buster Posey. He has been for a few years.
Taken as high as the second round in a lot of drafts last year.
If we take out his injured year, Posey has career lows in hr/rbi/avg
What do we do with that?
I believe we will punish him.
His adp will be closer to that of Lucroy, instead of being the automatic first catcher drafted. Lucroy, with almost twice as many homers as Buster.

Just a note, Posey has not hit a home run since July 16. Almost two months.

Wow. Since I don't (and usually don't) own Posey anywhere, I was not aware of that HR drought. Perhaps the dings and dents of wearing the tools of ignorance and/or a hidden injury?

[DOUGHBOYS]

My questions for 2017 are more general, because they apply to so many players who shared the same narrative.

1. Will the additional jump in HRs for hitters that neutered the comparitive value of power hitters and fly ball pitchers (against the rest of the field) continue to wreak havoc on those player groups while propping up the "just barely" homer crew that saw doubles drop and homers rise across the league, and whatever type(s) of pitchers excel in this hitting new environment.

2. Is this new hitting environment here to stay? Will a late homer plunge signal a correction in baseball manufacturing and/or umpire strikezone judgement.

3. Will people forget all of this in a few months (or even now) and invent individual narratives about each player's career arc that led to their sudden rise in HRs or HRs allowed? I see it happening already and it's hard not to chuckle. Freddie Galvis people. Freddie F-ing Galvis, AKA, the human prospect placeholder/utility man turned beast slugger. For every exception like Posey and Marte, there are 10 guys who have hit 10 extra homers out of the blue, turning Punch and Judy middle infielders and burners into 5-cat forces, and killing the value of lower K flyball pitchers who previously excelled with control and poor contact. HR/RBI guys, like 1Bs in particular, were a train wreck as a group, as their meal ticket categories got so diluted in caparative value.

There are easy answers (in some minds) as to why this is happening.

1. Baseballs are juiced
2. Players are juiced
3. Hitters are 'going for' the home run

There may be a little truth in all that. I don't know.
The other night, I was watching a kid just up from the minors facing Jose Fernandez. The kid hit a shot for a single against him.
I'm old school.
I was a little shocked that this kid, who had been facing mostly podunk pitchers, could turn around a Fernandez offering so quickly in his Major League career.
I have to train myself not to be so old school.
These kids see nothing but 90+ pitches now, even in the lowest of minor league levels.
I have to tell myself that these younger hitters are not facing pitchers that throw harder now, that they are only facing pitchers that are more fine, more refined, and have an idea in where the ball should be thrown to a hitter.
Perhaps, this is why Kyle Hendricks is having the year he is having and why Jered Weaver isn't getting blown up as much as folks estimated.
Instead of being ordinary, they are now different.
A broadcaster 'wows' that a pitcher is throwing 98, but the hitter's, even young hitter's, are hitting them.
And they're hitting them far in some cases.
THAT is what broadcaster's should be 'wowing'.

One more point...
Some owners of Manny Machado are a bit miffed that he quit running this year.
Don't blame Machado. Blame the Orioles and Buck Showalter.
The Orioles lead the world in home runs. Machado being a big part of that.
Buck Showalter's philosophy is why attempt steals and make outs on the bases, when our game is the long ball?
A reasonable approach.
And while it is reasonable in a baseball sense, it does make their speed statistics, well, pathetic.
The Orioles have six triples.
Six.
The fewest triples hit by any team in history, was 11 by the 1998 Orioles.
That 'record' will be smashed.
This year, 23 players have at least six triples.


In 1957, when few were stealing bases, the Washington Senators stole 13 bases as a team.
The Orioles have 17 stolen bases.
As most know, Machado stole 20 himself last year.
Every team but the Cardinals, have at least twice as many as Baltimore.
It is clearly a directive that players wait on first base till advanced.
This year, 31 players have at least 17 stolen bases.

That said, the Orioles are 32 homers from tying the record for most home runs by a team in baseball.
In a time where it seems everybody is hitting home runs, they are doing it more.
And eliminating the speed element of the game in the process.

[Sebadiah23]

This is no easy answer and every statistical analysis, in the end, is a large collection of anecdotes. Did the St. Louis Cardinals homerun totals rise from 105 in '14, to 137 in '15, to a whopping 207+ in 2016, due just to the baseball change, or roster/emphasis changes as well. Regarding Weaver let me first say this- some parks are immune even if you add 10 feet to every flyball, including SF, Atlanta, LAA, and Miami. It's the 'tweener parks and bandboxes that are seeing the biggest jumps.

Regarding pitching styles less effected, there are three components at least that come into play- 1) strikeouts, 2) limiting runners on base before homers, 3) inducing groundballs.

Back to Weaver and his forgiving park. Weaver has none of these going for him, and despite an 11-11 record, has a 5.25 ERA with increased walks and 35 HR against. Likely the worst pitcher in baseball.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Correct, there is no easy analysis. We all know that Weaver would not even be pitching in the Major Leagues were it not for his contract...
And as soon as I typed that, I thought about Mike Pelfrey in how he was signed for no apparent reason.

It looks as though hitters have caught up to pitchers. Just a few short years ago, we were saying that pitching was ahead of hitters.
But, even that is hard to substantiate. Averages are falling, homers are rising.
I don't know if that means hitters have caught up. I really don't.
For every stat one can pull from one side, there is another that can diffuse it.

Sometimes we just have to say, "I don't know".


Edit-
Just a quick note on the Orioles lack of triples.
I got an email that suggested that Baltimore plays in a ball park that is not triple friendly.
That may be so.
At the the sime time, the Orioles only have two triples all year, while visiting other teams parks.
It is clear that not 'going for the extra base' is a part of the Orioles directive.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Wasn't it just last year that folks were saying the hitter's don't have a chance with the 'new strike zone'?

[jvetter]

Regarding Weaver let me first say this- some parks are immune even if you add 10 feet to every flyball, including SF, Atlanta, LAA, and Miami. It's the 'tweener parks and bandboxes that are seeing the biggest jumps.

Regarding pitching styles less effected, there are three components at least that come into play- 1) strikeouts, 2) limiting runners on base before homers, 3) inducing groundballs.

Back to Weaver and his forgiving park. Weaver has none of these going for him, and despite an 11-11 record, has a 5.25 ERA with increased walks and 35 HR against. Likely the worst pitcher in baseball.

According to ESPN: HR/G

Turner Field 2015: 1.40 HR/G
Turner Field 2016: 1.59 HR/G
AT&T Park 2015: 1.35 HR/G
AT&T Park 2016: 1.55 HR/G
Angel Stadium 2015: 2.02 HR/G
Angel Stadium 2016: 2.45 HR/G
Marlins Park 2015: 1.37 HR/G
Marlins Park 2016: 1.48 HR/G

Obviously this is significantly effected by personnel changes too and ballpark changes (Marlins Park). Interestingly, the only stadiums that are down home runs per game from last year (to date) are Minute Maid Park (-0.28), Wrigley Field (-0.12), and Camden Yards (-0.06).

[Sebadiah23]

My bad, I was looking at team totals across three years- their very, very poor HR performance on the road must be noise.

[Bronx Yankees]

There are easy answers (in some minds) as to why this is happening.
1. Baseballs are juiced
2. Players are juiced
3. Hitters are 'going for' the home run

I do not know if baseballs are juiced.

I hope less players are juiced now than in prior years, but do not know.

I think #3 is dead-on.

Like life, in baseball things come in waves. Right now, players - and, in some cases, teams - are eschewing bunting, stealing, hitting singles away from the shift, etc., all in pursuit of home runs. When growing up, most players in a lineup would choke-up on their bat with two strikes and try to get a single. Strikeouts were bad. Now, it seems like hitters, including weak ones, are swinging for the fences on every at bat, against every pitcher, and in virtually every situation. Strikeouts are accepted like never before. Players are given virtually an entire side of the field due to a shift and they couldn't hit in a single in the opposite direction if their lives depended on it. Yet, if a pitcher is throwing 95, they are all about trying to hit a home run.

I think pitching is going through a similar, but different, trend. It used to be all (or most) starting pitchers had multiple pitches. They would vary speeds, go inside and outside, up and down. Someone throwing 95 was unique. Now, it seems like most starters under 25 are throwing well above 90 and many are above 95. Yet, does that make them better pitchers? Seems like we have a lot of hard-throwing mediocre pitchers in the league. A number lack control, accuracy and secondary pitchers, but dammit, they can hit 95 whenever they want. They are matched up against hitters with poor contact rates, who can't hit to the opposite field, strikeout a lot, but dammit, if they make contact, there's a good chance the ball is leaving the yard.

In this era, or phase, it is kind of nice seeing a guy like Kyle Hendricks, who rarely gets above the high-80s, leading all of baseball in ERA. The guy knows how to pitch. He mixes speeds, location, pitches. He has great control. He knows what he wants to do with each batter. Also, as an added bonus, he's ready to throw when he gets the ball back from the catcher and the defense (and fans) are not falling asleep between pitches. I'm guessing Greg Maddux would have monster strikeout rates in this era; he'd make most hitters look plain silly.

Just my take. Hitters are much better at squaring up 95, but are they "better" hitters than in prior years? Not so sure. Perhaps they are better at certain things but not others.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Just info...
26 players have hit 30 home runs. Many more will also reach that number.
Of the current 26 players, only four are hitting .300 (Machado, Cabtrera, Betts, Ortiz)
Only four are running enough to have double digit steals (Dozier, Frazier, Odor, Betts)
This is why it is a good bet(ts) that we'll see Mookie drafted in the top five.
Here is another Mookie Lookie....
Only three hitters in baseball have more extra base hits than Betts. (Dozier, Arenado, Ortiz).

We chide players for not sealing more bases this year.
We may not be looking at it the right way.
Last year, there were four 20-20 players. Pollock, Braun, Goldschmidt, Machado.
This year, we already have eight. Twice as many as last year. Betts, Goldscmidt, Myers, Altuve, Harper, Upton Jr., Trout, Desmond.
Harper and Goldschmidt were consensus number one, two, or three picks.
They went 20/20 and will drop this year.
Because they haven't done what most others are doing. Hitting more home runs.
Go figure

Edit- By the way, an incredible 92 hitters already have 20 home runs.
Last year, 64.

[Sebadiah23]

FYI- that is not my quote above. Is there evidence for strikeouts being up? I've been avoiding mentioning new stats like exit velocity because of the lack of history. Doubles are down because the ball isn't hitting the fence- it's going over. We would need to see a 12% rise in K rate or swing velocity, or something to justify "going for more homeruns". Not saying it's wrong, but need info.

[Sebadiah23]

I don't know if I totally buy this, but I found a confirmation-biased anecdote regarding my example "home run enhanced" player Freddie Galvis ( http://www.phillyvoice.com/freddy-galvi ... -hr-derby/ that for all we know could be PR to mask steroid use, but is otherwise somewhat compelling. So I'm posting this in fairness, as it goes against my original premise- but like New Orleans DA Jim Garrison, I merely seek the truth.

Swing changes, drug-added or not, are a real thing (Ben Zobrist, Justin Turner ), but I always hesitate to use anecdotes to prove a widespread outbreak.


"Garrison: "I never realized Freddie was so dangerous to the Establishment. Is that why?")"

"X: Well, that's the real question, isn't it? Why? The 'How' and the 'Who' is just scenery for the public. Oswald, Ruby, Cuba, the Mafia, keeps 'em guessing like some kind of parlor game. Prevents 'em from asking the most important question: Why? Why Is Galvis hitting homers? Who benefited? Who has the power to cover it up? Who?...

The organizing principle of any society, Mr. Garrison, is for ticket sales. The authority of the state over its people resides in its entertainment powers. And Selig wanted to end the Steroid Era in his second term. He wanted to call off the moon race in favor of cooperation with the Soviets. He signed a treaty with the Soviets to ban nuclear testing. He refused to invade Cuba in 1962 and he set out to withdraw from Vietnam. But all of that ended on the 22nd of November, 1963. As early as 1961, they knew Kennedy was not going to war in Southeast Asia. Like Caesar, he is surrounded by enemies and something's underway, but it has no face. Yet everybody in the loop knows...

Everything is cellularized. No one has said, 'Freddie Galvis must hit homers.' There's been no vote. Nothing's on paper. There's no one to blame. It's as old as the crucifixion. A military firing squad: five bullets, one blank. No one's guilty, because everyone in the power structure who knows anything has a plausible deniability. There are no compromising connections except at the most secret point. But what's paramount is that it must succeed. No matter how many die, no matter how much it costs, the perpetrators must be on the winning side and never subject to prosecution for anything by anyone. That is a coup d'état...."

[fwicker]

What would happen if baseball records were relative? I.E. home runs wouldn't be a simple count but a standard deviation from the mean? How would that affect Bonds, Ruth, etc?

[Yah Mule]

What would happen if baseball records were relative? I.E. home runs wouldn't be a simple count but a standard deviation from the mean? How would that affect Bonds, Ruth, etc?

I'm not a mathematician, but I think Ruth's 1920 season, when he outhomered every team in MLB except Philadelphia, would blow the curve to pieces.

[Deadheadz]

There are easy answers (in some minds) as to why this is happening.
1. Baseballs are juiced
2. Players are juiced
3. Hitters are 'going for' the home run

I do not know if baseballs are juiced.

I hope less players are juiced now than in prior years, but do not know.

I think #3 is dead-on.
Mike

Have to agree with you on #3
Juiced balls wouldn't explain the rise in strikeouts and dip in BA among many power hitters. But #3 explains both.

.