NFBC Content Panel: Top 25 Relievers

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:09 pm

Okay, here's our last ranking from the NFBC Content Panel. Below is a composite list from our 15 members of the panel, ranking their Top 25 relievers:

1. Joe Nathan

2. Francisco Rodriguez

3. B.J. Ryan

4. Billy Wagner

5. J.J. Putz

6. Mariano Rivera

7. Huston Street

8. Francisco Cordero

9. Trevor Hoffman

10. Chad Cordero

11. Takashi Saito

12. Brad Lidge

13. Tom Gordon

14. Bobby Jenks

15. Chris Ray

16. Brian Fuentes

17. Eric Gagne

18. Jose Valverde

19. Bob Wickman

20. Todd Jones

21. Jason Isringhausen

22. Octavio Dotel

23. Salomon Torres

24. Joe Borowski

25. Adam Wainwright

Interesting points to note:

1. Joe Nathan was No. 1 on all but one list, with Francisco Rodriguez receiving the only other No. 1 vote. Rodriguez was the clear No. 2 choice, but he was ranked fourth by two NFBC members.

2. B.J. Ryan Billy Wagner, J.J. Putz and Mariano Rivera each received one No. 2 vote. Ryan ranked as low as fifth and Wagner as low as sixth. Putz ranked as low as ninth and Rivera ranked as low as 13th.

3. Huston Street was a clear-cut seventh choice, but after that it was a free-for-all. The next big dropoff occurs after Chris Ray with the 15th spot. Every reliever after No. 18 was left off at least one owners' Top 25 list.

Thoughts?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:30 pm

How is it that Wainwright - the Cards #3 starter - made the reliever list? Is he so good that he'll come in to close between starts?

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:48 pm

While I did not have him on my list. I think many believe he will be the closer if/when Issy can't go.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 1:40 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

How is it that Wainwright - the Cards #3 starter - made the reliever list? Is he so good that he'll come in to close between starts?

Think Schilling and Unit, 2001 World Series...

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:33 pm

Are people just assuming that Issy might be hurt because he is Issy or is something actually wrong with him? I'm behind on this one, though I ranked him around where he landed anyway. It seems like the Cards intend on having Wainwright start regardless.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:40 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

Are people just assuming that Issy might be hurt because he is Issy or is something actually wrong with him? I'm behind on this one, though I ranked him around where he landed anyway. It seems like the Cards intend on having Wainwright start regardless. Exactly, they've groomed him to start - unlikely they'll bounce him back and forth when it would be easier to find a fill-in closer than a quality starter. I expect him to start 30 games this yr, Izzy will close 75% of their games, and a committee will handle the rest.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 5:48 pm

As much of a problem I had with the starting pitcher rankings, I have almost no problem at all with the rankings of the relief pitchers.

A couple small things, I would personally stick Foulke ahead of Borowski for the closer spot....I mean this is Joe Borowski we're talking about.

Also, I would not put Putz over Rivera. 1 year doesn't make you an elite closer. I would much rather put more proven closers ahead of him although his numbers last year were dominant. I understand why he's there, but I personally don't like to draft closers too high unless they have shown over a few years that they are reliable. Just me.

I like Nathan as the #1, he should have been there last year. He's incredible. I remember when he came over from the Giants I argued with somebody saying he was going to be a very good closer and he said "Nathan couldn't close a gate". It's funny, we still talk about that. Of course I didn't think he was this good.

All in all, great list, on the ball.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 6:20 pm

A) Find the teams with the most pathetic offense who will win by more than 3 runs in their dreams.

B) Filter out the garbage closers of said teams.

C) Crown these guys as more valuable than the "truly" best closers that happen to be on teams with the potential to blow out other teams and therefore have less opportunities.

It still makes me laugh to see some guys who would fold like wet paper in a clutch save situation be ranked higher than proven super-stomach stars!.

"E.T." is still the best. (That's what my wife calls Mariano Rivera...I guess it's the ears/resemblance.)

~Lance

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 1:06 am

Big Dog, I understand why you like Foulke, but do you think he exhibited enough last year to not only prove he was back, but Top 25 material? He gave up better than a hit per inning, still gives up a LOT of fly balls, and he did not strike out as much as he used to (still good, just not back to the level of '03 and '04). A good spring could put him on the list, but not until then, IMHO.

I hear what you are saying about Borowski. He made my list at #25 and it was a toss up between him and Torres, whom I left off my list.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 1:11 am

BTW, I was the guy who put Rivera at 13. Back problems and 37 year old closers do not mix. Being a GB pitcher really helps as he benefits from the defense behind him, but his K rate went WAY down last year and that cannot be a good sign.

I had Hoffman, Gordon, and Rivera all ranked pretty much the same. I may be wrong, but at least I am consistent! :rolleyes:

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 2:00 am

Originally posted by Big Dog:

As much of a problem I had with the starting pitcher rankings, I have almost no problem at all with the rankings of the relief pitchers.

A couple small things, I would personally stick Foulke ahead of Borowski for the closer spot....I mean this is Joe Borowski we're talking about.

Also, I would not put Putz over Rivera. 1 year doesn't make you an elite closer. I would much rather put more proven closers ahead of him although his numbers last year were dominant. I understand why he's there, but I personally don't like to draft closers too high unless they have shown over a few years that they are reliable. Just me.

I like Nathan as the #1, he should have been there last year. He's incredible. I remember when he came over from the Giants I argued with somebody saying he was going to be a very good closer and he said "Nathan couldn't close a gate". It's funny, we still talk about that. Of course I didn't think he was this good.

All in all, great list, on the ball.

Big dog sure does have a much better track record in debates with "former" associates or league mates than he does here. HMMMM

Makes me wonder if Big Dog was the guy in high school who cleaned up with the ladies on vacations, girls from other schools, summer camp etc but had a little bit of a hard time with the ladies from his own school.... Just got Chest thinking... We all knew that guy- nice to see him rearing his head again. Notice you did not comment on my repost of the Patterson thread Doggy?

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 2:45 am

Big Dog , i think the top 5 is right on.Rivera is 37 years old and doesnt get the strike outs he once did,55 K'S in 75 innings.Plus with that Yankee offense this year ,should have plenty of blowouts.I wouldnt take Rivera 6th , at 37 and that bad back , i would go with someone else.

As far as Putz, are you kidding me 114 strike outs to 13 walks is just sick.Thats an 8to 1 ratio, nobody better than that.

Foulke hasnt done anything since the 2004 world seris, he's now 34.Borowski is coming off a 36 save season, and his 64 K'S in 69 INNINGS was a good sign.Borowski is 35 , but proved he can still get the job done.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 2:59 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

....the guy in high school who cleaned up with the ladies on vacations, girls from other schools, summer camp etc but had a little bit of a hard time with the ladies from his own school.... Just got Chest thinking... We all knew that guy- nice to see him rearing his head again. LMAO!

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 3:44 am

Also, I would not put Putz over Rivera. 1 year doesn't make you an elite closer. I would much rather put more proven closers ahead of him although his numbers last year were dominant. Big Dog, is there a reason you feel this way about closers but not starting pitchers? You are certainly high on Jered Weaver, all 120 or so innings of him.

With respect to Putz, normally I am wary of such a spike in a metric such as K-rate, but with JJ there is a tangible reason. Last season, he added a split to his normal fastball/slider combo. We all know velocity isn't everything. His slider was good, but not devastating in the mold of Lidge/Gagne or K-Rod's bender. The split has the same velocity as his slider, but a different break to it so he was better able to keep hitters off balance, missed more bats and induced more grounders when they did get a piece of the ball. He's for real.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 5:34 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: Also, I would not put Putz over Rivera. 1 year doesn't make you an elite closer. I would much rather put more proven closers ahead of him although his numbers last year were dominant. Big Dog, is there a reason you feel this way about closers but not starting pitchers? You are certainly high on Jered Weaver, all 120 or so innings of him.

With respect to Putz, normally I am wary of such a spike in a metric such as K-rate, but with JJ there is a tangible reason. Last season, he added a split to his normal fastball/slider combo. We all know velocity isn't everything. His slider was good, but not devastating in the mold of Lidge/Gagne or K-Rod's bender. The split has the same velocity as his slider, but a different break to it so he was better able to keep hitters off balance, missed more bats and induced more grounders when they did get a piece of the ball. He's for real. [/QUOTE]Exactly we owned the guy last year in the main event- nothing not to like about him. Top 5 closer in my book.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 6:21 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Big Dog, I understand why you like Foulke, but do you think he exhibited enough last year to not only prove he was back, but Top 25 material? He gave up better than a hit per inning, still gives up a LOT of fly balls, and he did not strike out as much as he used to (still good, just not back to the level of '03 and '04). A good spring could put him on the list, but not until then, IMHO.

I hear what you are saying about Borowski. He made my list at #25 and it was a toss up between him and Torres, whom I left off my list. Part of my reasoning for liking Foulke is that he has been pretty dominant in the past, and I think his lapse the past couple of years can be attributed to injuries. I think in September he really came alive and I attribute that to better health. I don't think he necessarily "proved" that he was back in just one month, I think he's finally healthy, and on a new team with a fresh start, I think he'll thrive, but I wouldn't exactly bet my house on it.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 6:22 am

In the Mag II League I took them both (Putz and Rivera). I don't know why. I wanted Putz but wasn't able to force myself to take Putz over Rivera so I just took them both! Haha. May work out, may not. We shall see.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 6:47 am

The concern with Foulke is velocity as like Trevor Hoffman, he is so reliant on a change. If a guy that throws 92 or 93 loses a couple mph, he can still be effective. But Foulke's "heater" used to sit 88-90, with his change about 80. Recently, his fastball has dropped to the mid 80s, narrowing the speed differential so batters can sit on the change and still catch up to the fastball. He has not been nearly as effective at keeping hitters off balance.

So while the drop in velocity might be due to injury, it could also be the result of some high IP totals for a reliever, going back to his White Sox days.

Foulke has also had some personal issues to deal with the past couple of seasons, a messy divorce at the heart of it. This may have taken him away from his routine, cut into conditioning, etc.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 8:57 am

Originally posted by Big Dog:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Big Dog, I understand why you like Foulke, but do you think he exhibited enough last year to not only prove he was back, but Top 25 material? He gave up better than a hit per inning, still gives up a LOT of fly balls, and he did not strike out as much as he used to (still good, just not back to the level of '03 and '04). A good spring could put him on the list, but not until then, IMHO.

Having observed Foulke with the White Sox for years, his effectiveness is due to good control of his 90mph fastball, then a great change. problem, when last I saw him with the Red Sox, he was topping out at mid to low 80mph. his change doesn't do much if he can't throw harder. If he regains his fastball I think he'll be fine. If not? I can still crush and 80mph straight fastball and I'm almost 48. The change of speed wouldn't bother me at those speeds.

I hear what you are saying about Borowski. He made my list at #25 and it was a toss up between him and Torres, whom I left off my list. Part of my reasoning for liking Foulke is that he has been pretty dominant in the past, and I think his lapse the past couple of years can be attributed to injuries. I think in September he really came alive and I attribute that to better health. I don't think he necessarily "proved" that he was back in just one month, I think he's finally healthy, and on a new team with a fresh start, I think he'll thrive, but I wouldn't exactly bet my house on it. [/QUOTE]

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 9:20 am

[Having observed Foulke with the White Sox for years, his effectiveness is due to good control of his 90mph fastball, then a great change. problem, when last I saw him with the Red Sox, he was topping out at mid to low 80mph. his change doesn't do much if he can't throw harder. If he regains his fastball I think he'll be fine. If not? I can still crush and 80mph straight fastball and I'm almost 48. The change of speed wouldn't bother me at those speeds.] Sorry double screw up. I didn't see Todd had already addressed the speed issue then screwed up on the reply.

[ February 01, 2007, 03:24 PM: Message edited by: Vander ]

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 9:37 am

Personally, I was on the Putz bandwagon as well. I may be overstating, but I had him 2nd with FRod 3rd. FRod has been great, but showed some weakness last year before settling down.

The rest of the list looks close enough to mine, but I have Wainright projected to replace Izzy. Izzy just has too many health ??? for me

Spy

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 9:52 am

I think this was actually one of the better lists.

I had Putz #3 behind Nathan and KRod, as I think he is the real deal and a closer with those strikeout numbers is a big plus. I also did not have Ryan rated as high as others (#5 on my list behind Billy Wagner).

With Izzy's health issues and thus the uncertainty of whether Wainwright will be in the rotation or closing, I had neither of them on my list, preferring to list two guys who at least for now look like they will begin the season as the closer on their respective clubs - Dempster and Weathers. Yes, I know they don't pitch as well as others on the list, but they ARE the closers for now and thus have value.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Feb 02, 2007 6:03 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

The concern with Foulke is velocity as like Trevor Hoffman, he is so reliant on a change. If a guy that throws 92 or 93 loses a couple mph, he can still be effective. But Foulke's "heater" used to sit 88-90, with his change about 80. Recently, his fastball has dropped to the mid 80s, narrowing the speed differential so batters can sit on the change and still catch up to the fastball. He has not been nearly as effective at keeping hitters off balance.

So while the drop in velocity might be due to injury, it could also be the result of some high IP totals for a reliever, going back to his White Sox days.

Foulke has also had some personal issues to deal with the past couple of seasons, a messy divorce at the heart of it. This may have taken him away from his routine, cut into conditioning, etc. ToddZ, great information. I can't argue with it one bit. I realize his fastball isn't the same as it once was. I still think he can be effective just not quite as good, and I don't consider Borowski to be much competition although they'll make it seem that way during spring training.

I think with Foulke (granted I don't have much to back this up) will come back and have a good season. Maybe it's just a hunch. I really think this is a fresh start for him. If he was still in Boston, I think it would be tough for him. There's less pressure in Cleveland as they didn't really have a decent closer last year.

You are right about one thing, if he doesn't get his velocity back up he's gonna run into some trouble. I just see Foulke as a good pitcher. He knows how to pitch. And guys like that can get it done with less stuff. Just my opinion. I respect yours greatly. Excellent post.