Phat Bustards Auction Blog

[Edwards Kings]

Warning!!!! This will be a long (winded) post!

I really enjoyed meeting everyone in Vegas and had a number of people come up and say they really like the blogs. I am glad because (time permitting) I really like writing them. This is for my Auction Team and is my first NFBC team not named "Edwards Kings" or some derivation. "Phat Bustards" is my other common fantasy sports team name, one I more commonly have used in the past for football. Anyway, I decided to use it here for grins and to hopefully change my luck. And look it up. There really is such a thing as a bustard.

I love auctions. I really do. Takes longer (good), the pace lets you sit back and watch the faces and get more involved (good), more interactive (good), easier to slip in zingers (good), bid on any player you want (good), and I suck at them (bad). Still, I enjoy auctions better than snake drafts. More of an event to me.

Heavy-hitter league as they always are. Just about every guy up and down the owner list I know is a great fantasy player because of their reputations, results and the fact I have competed against so many of them in the past. Kind of like old times with Dallas, Dan, and Dave there. Real pleasure sitting next to Matt Anderson (kind enough to wear a vintage Braves cap and earned a special place in heaven for it).

Anyway, about my strategy. Not much to it this year other than try to avoid the mistakes from last year. The rules:

1) Do not price enforce unless you could really see yourself needing the player or you will end up Youkilising yourself. There is no colder feeling than going the extra buck on someone you do not want and having someone lean over and say “…he’s yours!”
2) Stick to your budget early by not being married to any one player. This is my way to recognize that for every guy that you HAVE TO HAVE, there is another, probably cheaper version that can give you the same stats. Another way to say lead with your head and not your heart.
3) Buy only guys who are guaranteed not to get hurt.

So, two out of three ain’t bad. By nature I am a risk averse player, but this year I was willing to accept some injury risk. After all, I seem to lean towards guys with relative youth and history on their side, and they get hurt anyway. Just go with the risk as long as the upside is there and the risk is not extreme.

A bit about how I budget. Like many I guess, I tend to fund offense and strangle pitching. While certainly not 50/50, decided to fund my pitching a little more than previous year’s. We have now had a couple of pitcher-dominant years, so to me it is a good time to be a bit more balanced. In the more distant past, there were a very small handful of truly dominant pitchers and a broad base of solid pitchers to help your stats. You might come in behind those that invested in the dominant pitchers (you know who you are…you always had Randy or Pedro on your team), but you could still accumulate the points necessary to be in the game. I would contend now that there are no truly dominant pitchers (apologies to those who think that Verlander/Strasburg/Kershaw are those types of pitchers). The top tier is to me wider than it ever has been. Top tier to me are those who can reasonably be expected to get 200+ innings with 200+ strikeouts with at least decent control. Because of the wider top layer, and extra buck or two in the beginning for an anchor and a few more $10 pitchers as opposed to $5 pitchers just makes sense to me.

Also, in budgeting, I budget out to $250. I keep that extra $10 in my “pocket”, hopefully to spread around a bit without having to rob from Peter to pay Paul. This did not work last year as I blew my stash early and lost what I view as a mid-auction strategic advantage. The bargains to me are in the mid-auction. It always seems that the guy you had just as highly ranked as the player you purchased goes for $3 or $4 less than what you paid. I try not to be stingy either or that $10 will be added to the last player you would normally be able to get for $1 or $2.

At the end of the day, I budgeted $175 for offense and $85 for pitching. On offense, I wanted an outfield anchor ($30), a corner anchor ($30 and probably a 1B since third basemen were getting so frequently injured in spring training meaning healthy ones would be selling at a premium), an anchor middle infielder ($25 which means don’t plan on Cano), and two catchers for $15 total. This should leave me with enough money for three other $15 players (two outfielders and a corner), a $10 middle infielder and the rest $2 to $5 roster fillers.

On pitching, I budgeted $20 for two closers (one second tier for around $15, and then spend what is left for a third tier). I wanted to spend between $60 and $65 on six starters (a $20 anchor and at least two $10 core pitchers). My last pitching spot could go to a gamble pick, minor league investment, or closer-in-waiting.

As to stats, I wanted as much heat as I could from my starters, even if it put WHIP at risk. That was pretty much my only parameter, but having more NL than AL pitchers is always nice. On batting, I expected the real power bats to go far above $30 since HR seems to be becoming scarcer and scarcer (of course, trends often have a way of reversing), so here I was looking for some decent power with good batting averages early. I did not want to dig any holes early, but speed was not of the essence as I was gambling that reasonably priced speed would be available.

How did it work out? Ehhh. You tell me.

As I mentioned, I wanted a good second tier closer and I thought I could get one for a reasonable enough price to leave enough to be in the bidding on others hoping the land one of the better third tier closers (i.e. not Veras or Marmol). I never expected that the first player I would buy would be the closer I ranked #2 behind Kimbrel. If memory serves, when Papelbon’s name was tossed, I did not even think I would engage because I was sure he would go for around $20. Bidding seem to slow, so I took the bidding up to $15 dollars, my max. It came as a real surprise to me when no one went the extra buck. Such a surprise that I began to think that I had screwed up and overvalued closers this year (i.e. that good second tier closers would be going for $3 to $5 later or something). Didn’t really pan out that way, so I am more than happy to have Papelbon on my team. And on budget.

The next player was also a surprise, though a gamble by my conservative way of thinking. When Josh Hamilton was tossed, I was sure he would be too expensive to be my anchor outfielder. And a gamble because he is susceptible to missing time to dings and bruises, has an addictive personality, just signed a stupid (for the Angels) big contract, and is moving from a hitters park to a pitchers park (though when Hamilton connects, no ballpark can hold it). Still, I am willing to gamble if the price is right as Hamilton has been and can be again an absolute monster. Like Papelbon, I was not really engaged in the bidding (at least not in my mind) until the end. I jumped in, took it to $25 and was again surprised when no one out bid me. I now have my outfield anchor and am $5 under budget and I have not yet even begun to chase bargains. I figure I am at break even if I get 500 AB from him and anything over is profit. Didn’t know it then of course, but will Wells out of the picture, the Angels will not feel obligated to give Vernon AB to justify his expense. And maybe Hamilton can DH a few games to extend his ability to play in more games. All good.

I hope I am right in that two great buys have just landed in my lap. Opinions vary.

Another player to me (actually, until the end game, I pretty much had as many or more players bought than most other teams) ended up being Roy Halladay. I had not targeted Doc due to his age and injury risk. Despite that, I had valued him at $10. He is after all Roy Halladay. I cannot recall how the bidding went, but I think I bid $10 (again, the interest in this player seem to wane), someone bid $11, and I bid $12. I won again. He is not my anchor. But if (IFIFIFIFIFIFIFIFIFIF) he is healthy, there are good stats to be had here for going just a bit over budget for the position.

On my bidding, sometimes I would wait for the going once….going twice….and jump right before sold. Sometimes I would come back with a quick extra buck, and sometimes a strong extra two bucks or three. I do not know why I do it differently though I guess most do. I am sure I think I am being clever, and that what I am doing is “strategic”. You cannot quantify “feel” really, but sometimes it just felt like the right way. It always seems to work in the auction, but then again I have never won an auction league, so how much good could it really be doing?

The next player I purchased was Dustin Pedroia. I would rather have him on my team more than any other second baseman except for maybe Cano though I really think Pedroia is just about equal. Cano has the power and has been more reliable, Pedroia has the speed with better than average power. I am not sure how long or how many AB he will get out of the third spot, but he won’t ride the bench. Here, I think the bidding ran pretty quickly up to $23. Rather than saying “$24”, I opted I believe to go the two-buck jump route. Whatever I did, I ended up with Pedroia at $25 and had my MI anchor. And on budget.

Then I kind of screwed up. Not too bad, though. Dave Clum tossed out Adam Eaton for $3. I was not sure if he really wanted to stash Eaton and hoped to slip through the first no second bid player or what. I thought it was funny for some reason and laughed as I said $4 thinking Clum or someone else would want to stash him (I didn’t) and bid more. Nope. Crickets. Doohhhh! Still, if he can come back in closer to six weeks rather than eight, he might give me some decent speed. Picture Jiminy Cricket singing “When you wish upon a star!” here. If there is really an outfielder I want out there, I could just drop him. It was just a $4 oops.

People have been rather dismissive of Edwin Encarnacion. I was at one time pretty high on him and moving to almost full time DH seems to have helped him reach potential. I had budgeted $30 for a big corner man and most of them had not yet been tossed. I had thought about waiting later for someone “better” (not many better than last year’s 42 HR!), but I took the bidding up to $25. SOLD! Again, a bit a bargain to me though only September will tell.

I have Hamilton, Encarnacion, and Pedroia as my anchors for $75 which is $10 lower than I had hoped. I really think this is going well. At this point, I decided to take my pre-auction banked budget of $10 and spend it upgrading my pitching and take the money I have “saved” on my bats to upgrade there. In short, I feel loaded and I haven’t started to drink yet.

Big new contract. Big mouth saying stupid things like just wanted the biggest bucks and didn’t really care who paid him. And my next player. Zack Greinke. Most seem to have him barely in their top 15 starting pitchers. I had him ranked as my 7th. Maybe it was the combo above that turned people off, but he has been a real producer (over three of the last four years 15+ wins, usually not too many IP over 200, 210+ K’s, ground ball/power pitcher, reasonable average pitch counts, efficient). I was looking for a $20 pitcher, which is where I had Greinke placed. Took some of my banked budget, went to $22, and got him. Overpaid? Maybe a little. The big contract scares me a bit, but I love the fact he is on the Dodgers and feel they will be playing for something in September. As far as anchors go, he should do very well. Please.

I know you all want excruciating detail on all my thoughts during the auction, but it could be too much of a good thing. Let me instead just finish out my roster. To go with Greinke ($22) and Halladay ($12), I ended up purchasing various amounts of risk in Lincecum ($10), Haren ($10), and AJ Burnett ($8). Whether I was right or not in who I picked, instead of two $10 core pitchers as I initially planned, I upgraded to four core pitchers to go with my ace. There is some risk here, I know. But I also see some good upside. Haren and Halladay (again, if reasonably healthy) are not 200+ K pitchers anymore, but they have maintained decent K-potential and have spot on control. Both play on teams that should be playing for something in September. Greinke, Lincecum, and Burnett do have 200 K-potential, though Burnett would probably need to throw 220 innings to get there. Burnett is also in a contract year, so hope springs eternal that he could be traded to a contender. I finished out my pitching money with Maholm ($1), Baker ($1 and already wasted), and Perkins ($6). Perkins is iffy as a closer though I do not see anyone currently on the Minnesota staff to challenge him. Perkins will lose some save opportunities as the Twins will use him as a situational lefty as well and Burton will vulture some saves. In the reserve rounds I picked up Joe Blanton, Gavin Floyd, and future Cy Young, Frank Francisco.

In the corners, I may have gotten another bargain in Aramis Ramirez ($18). I had budgeted $15 for the position, but went the extra couple of bucks since I thought I had gotten such a deal on Encarnacion. I tossed out Trevor Plouffe for $5 and there were no other bids. This, I admit, surprised me. If he avoids the sophomore jinx, he is a good candidate for 25 home runs. Probably will be a BA drain, but I think he can hit .250 to .260.

In the middle to go with Pedroia, I picked up Cozart ($4) and Lowrie ($3). Another .250-ish hitter, Cozart could hit 15 HR and get double digit steals. And the Reds should be playing for something in September. Who knows about Lowrie? One year he will get 500 AB, and who knows. With Oakland losing some faith in Nakajima, Lowrie should get even more AB in the platoon rich A’s environment. Healthy is the only (and it is a big one) issue. A gamble. I have Stephen Drew for bench meat.

In the outfield, I have Hamilton ($25) and Eaton ($4). That should be enough, but the rules require four more. I did get Victorino ($15) who should start making up for some of the speed I have been seriously lacking in and he is no Judy. And how long will Ellsbury last? Six months, six weeks, six games, six at bats, six minutes? Who knows? Victorino should be next in line to lead off. More speed in Aoki ($16). Put up great numbers last year even after starting the season on the bench. He is not a fourth OFer anymore and he is in front of Braun and Ramirez. Nice.

I need more injured players so I spent $7 on Hart. If I can survive until he gets back, more power and decent average to claw back a little I lost to Plouffe, Cozart, and Lowrie. I got an OFer to cover up my UT spot as well. Hanging out there late was Jason Kubel. He was just about the last guy on the boards that I thought had a real shot at 20-25 HR. I still had most of my “saved” money for offense at this time, but Richard Gordon got into a bidding war with me on him. He pushed me all the way up to my winning $15 bid on Kubel. I did not want to spend that much as I still needed a catcher and two pitchers to round out my roster. Still you can’t take it out to the gift shop to spend, so you may as well spend it on the best left.

With Eaton and Hart to start the season on the DL, I picked up Duda and Mayberry in the reserve rounds. Both will play early both for the Mutts and Phils and me. Nothing to get excited about and the longer they stay in my line-up, the more I will probably regret it.

At catcher, I picked up McCann for $7. If he is able to come back in early May, this is a good buy. I really think his issues last year were related to the maladies he just had fixed. And he is playing for a contract. He used to be one of the first three catchers taken and I think he still has that kind of value. In the Braves line-up, he will not be relied on anymore high in the order, but I think by the time he is warmed up he will be batting sixth. The last of my money went to Saltalamacchia ($6). This happened just after Kubel and left me with $2 for two players. As Dan Kenyon so correctly noted, I am an AB guy. But here I think the AB against LHers that Ross takes rather than Saltalamacchia will help him (me) during the season. Maybe, just maybe he can get his BA all the way up to .250 to go with about 20 bombs over 375 AB. Hanigan was picked up in the reserves to play until I get someone better or McCann comes back.

Some power…Hamilton, Encarnacion, Ramirez, and Kubel. Some speed…Victorino, Aoki, Eaton (when healthy), and Pedroia. Some BA risk and some good BA’s. Some upside…Cozart, Lowrie, Plouffe. Some risk…Hamilton and McCann.

Some power arms…Greinke, Lincecum, and Papelbon. Some risk…Halladay, Haren, and Perkins.

Seems kind of balanced to me.

[BK METS]

Nice blog and an interesting cast of players.. I personally dont like many of the guys you picked (Hamilton/Greinke/Papelbon) but no one can argue the price.. they were definitely worth it, at the price you got them.. Hamilton went over $30 in 2 of my auctions including the ultimate.

As far as the rest of the team, I think you balanced out pretty well. A lot of upside and bounce back candidates. Good luck!

[76erfan]

long winded? yes but a real enjoyable read.

you got a good blend of power and speed. If Lince and halladay give you anything...your pitching will be better than expected.

its got a chance i would say if things break right. I agree with what you said .......its ok if auctions are long....they are simply the best format in my opinion.

Glad you enjoyed and best of luck this season!

Andy

[Glenneration X]

Great write up Wayne. You really brought what's great about the auction experience to life.

It was a pleasure seeing you out in Sin City again. Good luck this year in this league and all the others you're taking part in.

[gpchurchill]

great read. love your hitting. like greinke, papelbon and perkins. rolling the dice with the rest of your staff. gamble gamble. that's what faab is for

[MadCow Sez]

Always enjoy reading your perspectives...looking forward to the season. My tactic in that league was get 4 big OF bats and fill the offense with 5-10 players and a handful of cheapies. I swapped an OF to make Reyes a part of my roster. Like the team I ended with but worry about the house of cards scenario. Drop-off if Upton, CarGo, or Cutch goes down is Joyce or Snider. Not exactly intimidating.

[Ando]

Nice post, Wayne. I enjoyed spending 5 hours with you. This was my first auction and I felt like the fish out of water all night. I was the meat of the Lindy and Wayne sandwich. But you gotta take the training wheels off sometime!

At least you didn't have to live throught the pain of drafting Jason Motte for $15 - cringed when I did it and cringed even more the next morning.

Best of luck to you in this and all your leagues.

[Edwards Kings]

Strategy. Strategy by its very nature means options. What are the strategic (or even tactical) advantages to multiple scenarios? Sounds so very Sun Tzu or von Clausewitz. However strategy also assumes you have remaining options. I used most of mine during the auction when I drafted a DL team of players I do not want to release and risk either having to utilized FA budget to get them back or worse yet losing them to my league mates.

Five players on my roster will not help me for weeks. Corey Hart, Brian McCann, Adam Eaton, Stephen Drew, and Frank Francisco. OK, I guess I could release Francisco because I doubt his release would cause any heavy breathing in the league. If there was a “must have” player out there, maybe I would. But for now I actually rate him a bit higher than most or to be more accurate, I do not have faith that Booby Parnell can hold the closer job for the Mets. I figure it is worth waiting a bit to see if Francisco can throw pain free this week.

FAAB Week 1 – In any regard, that leaves me going into this first period FAAB period with limited flexibility. I have Scott Baker that I tossed a $1 gamble on that basically has already evaporated, at least for a while. And I have John Mayberry who may still get significant AB until Delmon Young comes back, though conventional wisdom has it that he will be on the wrong side of a platoon with Laynce Nix. In short, I want more consistent AB and I want another pitching option to go with my two healthy reserves, Joe Blanton and Gavin Floyd.

I ended up giving more thought to the pitching really than I did the batting. Maybe because there was more “strategy” available to me. There were three ways I could go. First, get into the Detroit closer lottery. Second, a starting pitcher with some upside based on past skills shown. Third, stream a starter based on a potentially favorable start this week. I did what I normally do. To some extent, all three are represented in declining order of impact.

Detroit needs a closer and they do not seem to be calling old friend Valverde. In house right now, there seem to be two or three choices and Leyland doesn’t seem to be really showing his hand, which probably means committee unless someone really steps up. If they do, this could be a very valuable player because Detroit can be expected to win quite a few games this year. The two seemingly at the top of the list are Joaquin Benoit and Phil Coke with maybe Octavio Dotel thrown into the mix. I lean towards Benoit as he is a righty (Coke is a lefty) and most closers are righty’s. He doesn’t have any real split issues (Coke has trouble with right handed batters), better velocity and better control than Coke. He has been a great set-up guy for a while and not all set-up guys make closers, so he will have to prove himself. I did not go all in with him. I placed what I thought was a reasonable bid $89 on Benoit and actually did not think I would win. Last year if any wind blew that might indicate who would close for a playoff contender (and even some perceived weaker teams), bids in excess of $100, $200, $300 and up could be placed. I guess I guessed right. I won Benoit with a second place bid of $79. I wanted a third closer coming out of the auction but didn’t get one. Now I may have at least part of a closer committee and did not break the bank to get him. If he can secure the position, this is a big win as opposed to a spot contributor.

I had as fall backs two players who had contributed in the past, Jhoulys Chacin and Ivan Nova as my two second choices. Both were picked up for $1, so someone saw at least some worthwhile gamble there. I had three pitchers after them that seem to offer some streaming upside, then a few others that would have offer little more than Baker.

On the offensive side to replace Mayberry, I saw five players available that had at least some short time value as they will probably get most of the AB at their position, in some cases only while their teams wait for the real full-timers to get off the DL. The one I went for and got for a $31 bid (runner up bid was $25) was Brett Wallace. Houston, despite last nights’ win, promises to be horrible this year. They won, but look at their #2 through #4 hitters last night…something like twelve AB and something like 10 strike-outs. And Wallace right now is hitting second. He probably would not be there nor would he be there long if Houston had other options. As it is, of my choices, he was about the only one hitting up in the lineup. I need to play him and hopefully he will take advantage of his current position in the batting order until Hart comes back. Two of the other four players (Getz $27 and Pollock $19) were picked up and neither of my conditional bids would have beaten those. As it is, there are two others out there that I have already identified as potential help if Wallace does not pan out plus there were a couple of drops that may have short-term value. I could be streaming this position if I can do so cheaply until Hart comes back.

Week 1 Roster – I only have fourteen healthy offensive players, so no real challenge here. Surprisingly with the exception of Hanigan as my second catcher and the aforementioned Wallace as my UT, I am pretty much OK with my bats.

On pitching, seven spots are pretty set. Greinke, Halladay, Lincecum, Haren, and Burnett (two starts) to go with closers Papelbon and Perkins are set. My remaining two choices are some combination of either Maholm (a lefty going against PHI), Blanton (road start against CIN), Floyd (home start against KC), and Benoit. I will probably go with Benoit for one slot to try and vulture a few saves as long as I can. The last will probably not be Blanton, though I think he is the superior pitcher to the other two. Pitching in Cincy is no picnic. The last spot (Maholm/Floyd) will be a game time decision.

Thanks to all who said they enjoyed the blog discussing the auction itself. Good luck all! The delicious grind begins....

[mlbbug]

Truly interesting blog to read! I think you have some good SP talent on your bench in Blanton and Floyd. Both ,I tihnk, are undervalued by the market(as shown by being available in reserve draft) but are better skilled SP's than most people think. I honestly feel they can give you 150K+ k's each. Blanton's issue is gopheritis; if he can learn to keep the ball in the park there is great upside there. Floyd also gets a bad rap playing in a hitter's park but also has more potential for upside. And Perkins is more skilled than most guys think he is and has little competition in that pen(Jared Burton?).Don't particularly care for Josh Hamilton though....we may have seen his best already. Hope he pans out for you. Good luck this year and look forward to reading more of your great stuff.As an NFBC auction rookie I try to absorb everything I can from more experienced players.

[Edwards Kings]

As an NFBC auction rookie I try to absorb everything I can from more experienced players.

Thanks! I am glad you enjoy the read. But please look at my track record before taking too much to heart. I believe I can even make some of the by-product of Lindy's farm at least SOUND logical!