AFL Symposium: Injury Report

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:51 am

I returned this week from sunny Arizona after attending the 14th annual Arizona Fall League Symposium. Many congratulations to Ron Shandler and Rick Wilton for putting on another superb and informative event. The fact that it was 92 degrees each day, sunny and just beautiful at every ballpark didn't hurt at all either.

I love the AFL and it was great to see more than 15 NFBC veterans there as well. First-timers included Mike O'Connor, Mike Ladd, Dave Potts, and Rick Thomas, while the old gang of Perry Van Hook, Todd Zola, Brian Feldman, Gene McCaffrey, Todd Zola, Brian Walton, Jason Grey, etc., was again on hand. Great, great stuff.

I'm going to add some highlights of the event in this thread throughout the day as time allows. I learned a lot there and I'm not afraid to share some of this with you. If you have any questions, feel free to post here. I'll gladly answer what I can and if I don't know the answer I'm sure one of the guys will jump on in. So look here for some discussion of the AFL until fall turns to winter.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:55 am

Okay, the first topic I wanted to pass on involved Rick Wilton's 2008 Injuries in Review. The facts are amazing. Here you go:

** In 2008 there were 431 players who landed on the DL, a new record for Major League Baseball.

** In 2008 there were 513 DL Moves, again a new record.

** In 2008 there was a 21.4% increase in players landing on the DL compared to 2002-2006

** In 2007 there was a 13.8% increase in players on the DL compared to 2002-2006

** The number of players on the DL from 2002-2006 before there was serious steroid testing was 355. The number of DL moves during that time was 422.

These are amazing numbers and shows you that steroid testing is having an effect. The fact that the number of home runs in 2008 were the lowest since 1993 also tells you that. Amazing, isn't it?

I'll update some individual players next, but I have to run to a meeting. Sorry.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:21 am

Okay, one more quick tid-bit from Rick Wilton: Each year he tracks starting pitchers who increased their workloads 50+ innings from the year before and how that affects their performance. In 2008, 8 out of 12 on that list were impacted from the increased workload. Here's the breakdown of this since Rick started keeping track of this statistic:

2008 - 75%

2007 - 75%

2006 - 66%

2005 - 50%

2004 - 72%

2003 - 39%

2002 - 50%

2000 - 66%

Here are the 2009 Warning Flag Candidates:

Ervin Santana: 219 IP in 2008, 150 IP in 2007

Tim Lincecum: 227 IP in 2008, 146.1 IP in 2007

Ricky Nolasco: 212.1 IP in 2008, 55 IP in 2007

Jon Lester: 210.1 IP in 2008, 153.2 IP in 2007

Zach Greinke: 202.1 IP in 2008, 122 IP in 2007

Chad Billingsley: 200.2 IP in 2008, 147 in 2007

John Danks: 195 IP in 2008, 139 IP in 2007

Greg Smith: 190.1 IP in 2008, 121 IP in 2007

Zach Duke: 185 IP in 2008, 107.1 IP in 2007

Jonathan Sanchez: 158 IP in 2008, 75.2 IP in 2007

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:27 am

Greg, Do you have the list of 12 going in to 2008?

Asumijet · Post by **Asumijet** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:05 am

When he says "impacted by the increased workload", what exactly does that mean? I assume it is negatively impacted. But I am interested in how negatively impacted.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:21 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Greg, Do you have the list of 12 going in to 2008? Ask and you shall receive:

Brian Bannister +85 IP from 2006 to 2007 (2008 totals: 5.76 ERA, 1.49 Ratio)

Matt Belisle +116.1 IP from 2006 to 2007 (2008: 7.28 ERA, 1.78 Ratio, strained right forearm in April)

Fausto Carmona +112.1 from 2006 to 2007 (2008: 5.44 ERA, 1.62 Ratio, strained hip injury)

Chad Gaudin +111 IP (2008: 4.40, 1.32, Ratio)

Scott Kazmir +62 IP (2008: 3.49, 1.26 Ratio, strained elbow, 35 days on the DL)

Dustin McGowan +58.1 IP (2008: 4.37 ERA, 1.37 Ratio, 83 days on the DL labrum surgery in July)

Adam Wainwright +127 IP (2008: 3.20 ERA, 1.18 Ratio, 75 DL days for sprained finger ligament)

Kevin Slowey +61.1 IP (2008: 3.99 ERA, 1.54 Ratio, strained right biceps muscle 25 DL days)

Tom Gorzelanny +140 IP (2008: 6.66 ERA, 1.80 Ratio, 25 DL days)

Braden Looper +101.1 IP (2008: 4.16 ERA, 1.31 Ratio)

Rick Vanden Hurk +122.1 IP (7.71 ERA, 2.14 Ratio, upper arm injury while in the minors)

Edwin Jackson +51.2 IP (2008: 4.42 ERA, 1.50 Ratio)

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:29 am

Originally posted by Asumijet:

When he says "impacted by the increased workload", what exactly does that mean? I assume it is negatively impacted. But I am interested in how negatively impacted. He's looking at any pitcher who threw 50+ innings from the previous year and seeing if he improved his stats or landed on the DL as a result. I don't remember exactly what he said, but from the list above I believe he is saying that Looper, Slowey, Kazmir and Jackson were not negatively affected but that the others were. And I agree.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 7:31 am

This stat is meaningless unless compared with the whole population of starters...what is the overall injury rate, and what is the rate of SP's who have significant downslides. I find it a bit hard to take a study that includes Matt Belisle seriously.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 7:40 am

Great info, Greg, and I would argue it is by no means meaningless.

What I find interesting is that the list of names on the 2008 list heading into 2009, is much sexier than the 2007 headed into 2008 list.

If nothing else, when I go to pick one of those names they'll be a definite cause for pause.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:19 am

Greg, did Rick have any opinions on MLB's top workhorses, Zambrano and Sabathia?

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:24 am

Great info, Greg, and I would argue it is by no means meaningless.

Would you argue the stat meaningful if the oerall pitching population had a similar injury and/or drop off rate?

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:42 am

Of the 12, here are my thoughts:

Bannister: is a guy with below avg stuff who is prone to issuing massive amts of BBs. As I recall, his BABIP from 06 hinted at 07 crash

Belisle: Career mid reliever who had one medium good year

Carmona: I guess he could be a guy who fit under the wear out theory

Gaudin: In 07 had whip of 1.5, had a 3:2 K/BB ratio, losing record, and era in mid 4s.

Kaz: Had pretty god year

McGowan: Already was inj prone

Wainwright: was actually having great 08 year when got finer inj, which seems to bear no relation to excessive innings

Slowey: Great step forward

Gorzelanny: was injured in 07 foreshadowing inj filled 08

Looper: anything you get from a retread like that is bonus

E Jackson: Cant fault his 08

So to me you basically have 2 maybe 3 guys who could be considered victims of the 50 + inning rule. THis is statistically insignificant

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:03 am

Well, certainly the Verducci Effect, which states that young pitchers with an increase of 30 innings are more likely to get injured to an extent that is statistically significant, has been proven multiple times.

[ November 06, 2008, 03:04 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:37 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Greg, did Rick have any opinions on MLB's top workhorses, Zambrano and Sabathia? Somebody asked about Zambrano and he felt he is already way overused. Since 2003, he's pitched:

2003 - 214 IP

2004 - 209.2

2005 - 223.1

2006 - 214

2007 - 216.1

2008 - 188.2

He felt you're seeing the effects already. He didn't talk about Sabathia.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:45 am

The top prospect in the AFL is C Matt Wieters, who one scout for the St. Louis Cardinals said is a "Hall of Famer." He also said Wieters is "Joe Mauer with more power." He is going to be named as Fantasy Sports Magazine's Minor League Player of the Year and Baseball America already named him as their Minor League Player of the Year.

Physically, this guy already looks like a big-time player. He's a 6'5", switch-hitting catcher who could make the jump from Double-A to the majors next year. At worst, the Orioles send him to Triple-A for a month or two before trading Ramon Hernandez. But when you see this guy in person, you will be amazed that he's a catcher. He's very impressive.

I didn't see Tommy Hanson of the Braves, but he appears to easily be the second best prospect in the AFL. The Braves wouldn't include him in a trade for Peavy, so that tells you something about his skills set. He was 2-0 during his first three starts in the AFL with a 0.00 ERA in 8.2 IP with one hit, 14 strikeouts and three walks. Wow.

Max Scherzer is done already, but he had four solid outings in his tuneup for the Diamondbacks. He went 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in 24 innings, allowing 16 hits and five walks with 24 strikeouts.

Other interesting prospects included:

Florida 1B Logan Morrison

St. Louis 3B Brett Wallace

White Sox SS Gordon Beckham

Texas 1B Justin Smoak

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 1:08 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Great info, Greg, and I would argue it is by no means meaningless.

Would you argue the stat meaningful if the oerall pitching population had a similar injury and/or drop off rate? I like the concept of the idea. I buy into it. Additionally I have seen it before from Rick over the past years and I think it carries some weight. I don't have the '04, '05, or '06 lists but I have seen them and it is meaningful, atleast to me. Rick could back this up with specifics alot better than I can.

But the names on this year's list are so intriguing.

I do agree that it was pretty easy to call Bannister or Belisle to fall off, but how many people out there are expecting a significant fall off of Lincecum, Lester, Nolasco, Billingsley etc.? I am thoroughly intrigued.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 4:51 am

Joe, Agreed 2006's drop off guys included 4 middlin or unproven guys with little performance success: Bannister, Belisle, Gaudin, Vandenhurk, whose future success was pretty cloudy anyway. All probably went undrafted in roto or very late.

5 guys either met or exceeded expectations:

Kaz, Slowey, Wainwirght, E Jack and Looper

One guy who finished 07 hurt: Gorzelanny

Two guys who might have fit into Rick's formula:

Carmona and McGowan

Pretty insignificant numerically. But I agree that this year's guys include substantial number who will be drafted near top of SP. I guess you keep it in mind, but do you think you get a discount for these guys?

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 5:59 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Joe, Agreed 2006's drop off guys included 4 middlin or unproven guys with little performance success: Bannister, Belisle, Gaudin, Vandenhurk, whose future success was pretty cloudy anyway. All probably went undrafted in roto or very late.

5 guys either met or exceeded expectations:

Kaz, Slowey, Wainwirght, E Jack and Looper

One guy who finished 07 hurt: Gorzelanny

Two guys who might have fit into Rick's formula:

Carmona and McGowan

Pretty insignificant numerically. But I agree that this year's guys include substantial number who will be drafted near top of SP. I guess you keep it in mind, but do you think you get a discount for these guys? No discount on these guys, what it probably means... is that I pause on them and then they are taken by someone else, and I build my staff elsewhere. However, I would caution about dismissing it as meaningless. Empirically the reasoning is sound to me.

Liquidhippo · Post by **Liquidhippo** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 6:00 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Greg, Do you have the list of 12 going in to 2008? Ask and you shall receive:

Brian Bannister +85 IP from 2006 to 2007 (2008 totals: 5.76 ERA, 1.49 Ratio)

Matt Belisle +116.1 IP from 2006 to 2007 (2008: 7.28 ERA, 1.78 Ratio, strained right forearm in April)

Fausto Carmona +112.1 from 2006 to 2007 (2008: 5.44 ERA, 1.62 Ratio, strained hip injury)

Chad Gaudin +111 IP (2008: 4.40, 1.32, Ratio)

Scott Kazmir +62 IP (2008: 3.49, 1.26 Ratio, strained elbow, 35 days on the DL)

Dustin McGowan +58.1 IP (2008: 4.37 ERA, 1.37 Ratio, 83 days on the DL labrum surgery in July)

Adam Wainwright +127 IP (2008: 3.20 ERA, 1.18 Ratio, 75 DL days for sprained finger ligament)

Kevin Slowey +61.1 IP (2008: 3.99 ERA, 1.54 Ratio, strained right biceps muscle 25 DL days)

Tom Gorzelanny +140 IP (2008: 6.66 ERA, 1.80 Ratio, 25 DL days)

Braden Looper +101.1 IP (2008: 4.16 ERA, 1.31 Ratio)

Rick Vanden Hurk +122.1 IP (7.71 ERA, 2.14 Ratio, upper arm injury while in the minors)

Edwin Jackson +51.2 IP (2008: 4.42 ERA, 1.50 Ratio) [/QUOTE]Unless I'm misremembering(possible), Sabathia was touted as a workload risk at a First Pitch Forum in 2008. Perhaps I just took the 50+ IP concept and applied it.

Sabathia:

2006 - 192.2 IP

2007 - 241.0 IP (plus a bunch in the playoffs)

2007 - 3.21 ERA 1.14 WHIP

2008 - 2.70 ERA 1.10 WHIP

Made sense at the time(pre draft 2008), but avoiding CC didn't work out so well.

Liquidhippo · Post by **Liquidhippo** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 6:10 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Okay, one more quick tid-bit from Rick Wilton: Each year he tracks starting pitchers who increased their workloads 50+ innings from the year before and how that affects their performance. In 2008, 8 out of 12 on that list were impacted from the increased workload. Here's the breakdown of this since Rick started keeping track of this statistic:

2008 - 75%

2007 - 75%

2006 - 66%

2005 - 50%

2004 - 72%

2003 - 39%

2002 - 50%

2000 - 66%

Here are the 2009 Warning Flag Candidates:

Ervin Santana: 219 IP in 2008, 150 IP in 2007

Tim Lincecum: 227 IP in 2008, 146.1 IP in 2007

Ricky Nolasco: 212.1 IP in 2008, 55 IP in 2007

Jon Lester: 210.1 IP in 2008, 153.2 IP in 2007

Zach Greinke: 202.1 IP in 2008, 122 IP in 2007

Chad Billingsley: 200.2 IP in 2008, 147 in 2007

John Danks: 195 IP in 2008, 139 IP in 2007

Greg Smith: 190.1 IP in 2008, 121 IP in 2007

Zach Duke: 185 IP in 2008, 107.1 IP in 2007

Jonathan Sanchez: 158 IP in 2008, 75.2 IP in 2007 Lincecum pitched 31 Innings in AAA in 2007, does that count? If so, Lincecum should be taken off the list as it puts him just under a 50 IP increase. If we DON'T consider minor league innings pitched, then Cole Hamels needs to be added to the 2008 risk list(132.1 IP in 2006, 183.1 IP in 2007)

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 1:52 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Here are the 2009 Warning Flag Candidates:

Tim Lincecum: 227 IP in 2008, 146.1 IP in 2007

some winner in each league will burn a 2nd or 3rd round pick on this!!! 227 innings?!?!?!?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 2:05 pm

I pause on them and then they are taken by someone elseIf the key to winning fantasy baseball could be summed up in 12 words, these are the ones. It's all about who you don't take.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 3:31 pm

Originally posted by Liquidhippo:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Okay, one more quick tid-bit from Rick Wilton: Each year he tracks starting pitchers who increased their workloads 50+ innings from the year before and how that affects their performance. In 2008, 8 out of 12 on that list were impacted from the increased workload. Here's the breakdown of this since Rick started keeping track of this statistic:

2008 - 75%

2007 - 75%

2006 - 66%

2005 - 50%

2004 - 72%

2003 - 39%

2002 - 50%

2000 - 66%

Here are the 2009 Warning Flag Candidates:

Ervin Santana: 219 IP in 2008, 150 IP in 2007

Tim Lincecum: 227 IP in 2008, 146.1 IP in 2007

Ricky Nolasco: 212.1 IP in 2008, 55 IP in 2007

Jon Lester: 210.1 IP in 2008, 153.2 IP in 2007

Zach Greinke: 202.1 IP in 2008, 122 IP in 2007

Chad Billingsley: 200.2 IP in 2008, 147 in 2007

John Danks: 195 IP in 2008, 139 IP in 2007

Greg Smith: 190.1 IP in 2008, 121 IP in 2007

Zach Duke: 185 IP in 2008, 107.1 IP in 2007

Jonathan Sanchez: 158 IP in 2008, 75.2 IP in 2007 Lincecum pitched 31 Innings in AAA in 2007, does that count? If so, Lincecum should be taken off the list as it puts him just under a 50 IP increase. If we DON'T consider minor league innings pitched, then Cole Hamels needs to be added to the 2008 risk list(132.1 IP in 2006, 183.1 IP in 2007) [/QUOTE]My risk list is simple, and I think as good as Wilton's or BP's ...

Is the guy injured nearly every year or was he injured last year? If so, I think he's more likely to be injured next year. I took the two most overworked pitchers in baseball last year, Sabathia and Zambrano. Sabathia led or was close to leading the lge again in IP, while Zambrano probably had a higher IP total than the average starter.