2018 Busts

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DOUGHBOYS
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2018 Busts

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:59 am

There is a criteria I use for 'Fantasy Busts' of any year.
The first rule is that I have not drafted these players in any draft. (That would be hypocritical, wouldn't it?)
The second rule is that I have barely even thought about drafting these players in a draft. (As in, NEVER)
The third is that I have to come up with a player in later rounds that will give me that players numbers or better.
This is strictly my personal opinion and not meant to criticize any selections made by drafters already!

As I suggested in my last post, Trea Turner leads off.
What is the love affair with this guy?
Last year, he had 2B, SS, and OF eligibility. He loses that, he gets hurt, doesn't show power and is taken higher this year?
WHAT?
Turner is being treated like fantasy royalty, while only showing glimpses of greatness.
If I'm drafting in the first round, I want to start my draft off with a concrete base.
Turner does not offer that.
The only thing we KNOW we will get with Turner is speed.
He hits in a neutral ball park in a terrific lineup.
But still, it is a National League lineup that hinders rbi for a top of the lineup hitter.
I have already made this bet with a fellow NFBC'er....
Whit Merrifield will beat Trea Turner in three of five categories this year.
If a fifth round guy like Merrifield can even be thought of as beating top five pick in three categories, then that top five pick should not be a top five pick.

Daniel Murphy.
We have no idea when Murphy is actually going to play baseball.
We have no idea how much his surgery will effect him when he does come back.
Yet, Murphy has not dropped much in ADP.
We have gotten the pre-requisite story that Murphy is 'way ahead' of schedule in his rehab.
We just don't know what that schedule is....
Murphy has all the makings of being a bust where drafted.

James Paxton.
I get it. I get it.
When he does pitch, he looks so good.
We get so charmed by his effectiveness when pitching, we try to forget about all the times he doesn't pitch. At all.
The problem with pitchers and an accumulation of injuries is that they take a toll.
Paxton is getting to the point where not only will he miss dates because of injury, but those injuries will soon undermind performance.
Yet, we Tulo him. Thinking THIS will be his year of health.
On the bright side, there is five empty chambers when playing russian roulette.
If wanting to flirt with injury and get a pitcher that will cost less, Michael Fulmer is available later.

Shohei Ohtani.
This one is too easy.
The Pro is that he is really good.
That is why he is being drafted where he is.
The Cons are many.
The NFBC has taken away his hitting stats.
An injury took away his innings last year.
A six man rotation will take away his innings this year.
The take away is to avoid him and let another assume the cons.
There is no player I can suggest later like Ohtani. He is a one of a kind player.
The kind of player of player I would rather draft in 2019 when his innings are hopefully built, than in 2018 when not.


Aroldis Chapman.
He sure is shiny, isn't he?
Men are drawn to shiny things.
We love owning Chapman because he makes us feel empowered when blowing away hitters.
The problem is that he doesn't do what we mainly draft him to do.
He has NEVER finished top five in Saves.
Worse, he has become spotty since leaving Cincy.
Let's face it, the one thing we remember most about Chapman last year was how young Rafael Devers took him deep last year.
We are paying an extra round or two to feel good.
Is it worth it?
It hasn't been in the past.
Yet, there is Chapman in the fourth round of most drafts.
Raisel Iglesias beat Chapman in every roto category last year.
He'll probably do so again.
Chapman is a quiet bust.
But a bust nevertheless.

Xander Bogaerts.
Bogaerts is a really, really good hitter.
Oh wait.
Let me qualify that.
Xander Bogaerts is a really, really good hitter with David Ortiz hitting behind him.
Without Ortiz, Bogaerts is merely a good average hitter. A better real baseball player than fantasy player.
Even if signing JD Martinez, the impact will not be as great as having Ortiz behind Bogaerts.
Andrelton Simmons beat Bogaerts in four of five roto categories last year.
Simmons is not all that wonderful. That says a lot.

Again, if you really like these players, DRAFT 'EM!
I am just one voice.
One voice among millions in our hobby.
It is what sets us apart from other hobbies.
The upside down airplane stamp is known to be valuable to stamp collectors.
They KNOW that.
We don't who will be valuable
We think we do, but we don't.
I wouldn't think about taking Trea Turner till the end of the second round in drafts.
Does that mean anything, really?
To me, it means that most will disagree with me and that I will not have Trea Turner on any of my teams this year.
I can live with that.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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NorCalAtlFan
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Re: 2018 Busts

Post by NorCalAtlFan » Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:27 pm

no gary sanchez? for shame

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: 2018 Busts

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:36 pm

NorCalAtlFan wrote:no gary sanchez? for shame
Or Ronald Acuna! :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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NorCalAtlFan
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Re: 2018 Busts

Post by NorCalAtlFan » Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:37 pm

not even YOU would dare call him a bust...............

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: 2018 Busts

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:48 pm

NorCalAtlFan wrote:not even YOU would dare call him a bust...............
Oh, I could. :D

To tell the truth, the variance in rounds is what holds me back.
There is a lot of talent there, but he could have the problems of initial playing time and getting used to the Major Leagues.
A sixth or seventh round pick attaches a high price to pay for a player with those penalties.
Too high in my mind.
But if getting him later, expectations could be met with more ease of mind.
Like Ohtani, I can't wait to draft him in 2019!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Bjs2025
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Re: 2018 Busts

Post by Bjs2025 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:51 pm

There is one player not mentioned here that is the most overdrafted and over paid player year in and year out but to each individual draft he will go for double what he is worth. He trumps every player on this list and contributes heavily to ONE category. Someone else can name him because I loathe him so.

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: 2018 Busts

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:59 pm

Billy Hamilton?
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Bjs2025
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Re: 2018 Busts

Post by Bjs2025 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:05 pm

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Billy Hamilton?
Don't say it too loud

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: 2018 Busts

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:53 pm

Bjs2025 wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote:Billy Hamilton?
Don't say it too loud
Tough one.
Dave Kingman was a one category for years till the RBI started matching his homer output late in his career.
Players like this are easy to like and easy to hate.
For me, Hamilton is a challenge.
I drafted him a couple of times last year. Finished second and fourth in those leagues.
I believe (and we can say this about ANY fantasy player) that if surrounded with the right players, he can pay huge dividends.

Hamilton and Gordon are two of the most misused players drafted in DC Leagues.
I'll see them drafted by a team, then that team adds no other speed.
As if they're set, merely by drafting one of these two.
They are a waste of a pick when drafting them for speed, only to get one point in your standings because they had no help.
I've also seen it the other way, when Gordon and Hamilton are even drafted together.
While this drafter is building 15 points in one category, other drafters are kicking his ass in the other nine categories.

One category players have a charm to them.
Some of it is the Chapmanesque thing about watching a player dominate.
Hamilton dominates the bases as Chapman dominates bad hitters.
The problem is that Hamilton doesn't get on base enough to help the other categories, or even ultra dominate his one category by stealing 100 bases.
His ball park also goes against him.
If going to ATT&T or Miami, or Coors, I believe his batting average and times on base could improve enough to get 100 bases.
In the smaller confines of Cincy though, he is what he is.
A one trick pony.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

mbendar16
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Re: 2018 Busts

Post by mbendar16 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:25 pm

I have Billy Hamilton for the 1st time in a recent auction. Why you ask? He was the cheapest of any auction at $16. I was able to focus the rest of the auction primarily on power, with players like Wil myers, Ryan Braun, Xander Bogaerts (hopefully single digit steals aren't part of the bust Dan) :mrgreen: to chip in with double digit steals to support him. Just like a draft, roster construction key in an auction as well. Hamilton was taken early enough where I was able to adjust on the fly to a player I wasn't expecting on my team.

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: 2018 Busts

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:32 pm

mbendar16 wrote:I have Billy Hamilton for the 1st time in a recent auction. Why you ask? He was the cheapest of any auction at $16. I was able to focus the rest of the auction primarily on power, with players like Wil myers, Ryan Braun, Xander Bogaerts (hopefully single digit steals aren't part of the bust Dan) :mrgreen: to chip in with double digit steals to support him. Just like a draft, roster construction key in an auction as well. Hamilton was taken early enough where I was able to adjust on the fly to a player I wasn't expecting on my team.
This is how Hamilton can be used as a piece.
He eases the minds of drafters for one category.
Perfect.

If drafting Hamilton in either an auction or a draft, pay up a little bit for catchers.
Having Hamilton and two late catchers is almost sure to sink a batting average.
The gains made in one category, lost in another.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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