Recency Bias

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Recency Bias

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:02 am

Whether we project or not.
Whether we have a 'strategy' or not.
And whether we draft players we like or players that our next on our list, we all have one thing in common.
Recency bias.
Every one of us will use last years performances to base players for this year.
Even players like Alex Reyes, who did not throw a pitch.
Some of us will totally disregard Reyes in that he is coming back from Tommy John, while some will believe he is a bargain in whatever round drafted.

Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger were not even thoughts last year.
This year, they are second round picks.
Recency bias is the cornerstone of our thought process.
It has to be that way.
Or does it?
Buster Posey is projected for anywhere from 10-20 home runs this year.
Fair.
His home runs have plummeted from 22 to 19 to 14 to 12 over the last four years.
Recency bias says he'll stay close to the '12'.
But wait.

Some catchers start 'letting it hang out' when reaching their older years.
For some reason, power numbers seem to increase.
Yadier Molina went into last year with 7 to 4 to 8 homers the previous years.
He hit 18 last year.
Who projected that?

It wouldn't surprise me if Posey hit 25 homers this year.
He has hit 20-something home runs twice in his career.
I'll bet he does it at least twice again.
Even in that wretched hitters ballpark.

Projections never go as far to predict career highs or career lows for veteran players.
Recency bias has a lot to do with that.
We look at Miguel Cabrera as broke.
We question Clayton Kershaw.
We now know what Giancarlo Stanton is capable of with a healthy year.

Does any of this help us for the upcoming year?
Not really.
Recency bias misleads as well as leads.
Judge, Bellinger, Marcell Ozuna, and Ender Inciarte had huge and career years.
Their years are firmly entrenched in our minds.
It makes them hard to pass in drafts.
Some of us will though because of Missouri/Missouri (show me twice)
Some of us will because we don't trust that particular year.
Recency bias is in our heads though.

One last thing.
As a group, we don't follow recency bias blindly.
Last year, Dee Gordon soundly thrashed Trea Turner in three of the five roto categories.
Turner beat Gordon in homers by nine and rbi by 12.
This year, Turner is a top five pick while Gordon is in the second round.
Drafters saw a lot in Turner.
If Turner was not hurt last year, they felt he could be one of the best fantasy players in baseball.
Hence, his adp is top five.
Which reminds me, I have to start writing my post for 'Biggest Fantasy Busts For 2018'. :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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