Did You Hear What HQ Said About Chisenhall?

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DOUGHBOYS
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Did You Hear What HQ Said About Chisenhall?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:52 am

So, I am in a draft today and a fella selects Lonnie Chisenhall in the 29th round.
Perfectly acceptable pick.
Then, he writes this in chat....
'OLH, HQ projections love Chisenhall'
It's as if he had to backup his pick with others.
The type a guy who would tell some other kid to meet him after school for a fight, then ask two of his friends to be there to back him up.

Soon, another fella in the draft types the at bat projections from Steamer and HQ.
The drafter agrees with the HQ projection in that they 'give' him more at bats.
WHAT?!!
First of all, if you are going to look at projections look at Mastersball. Todd's projections have more explanation and an NFBC look to them.
Second, why do we look at projections at all?

All projections, no matter how good or bad they project a player, have one thing in common.
Nobody cares about them once the season begins.
They are draft season fodder.
Something to TALK ABOUT.
NOT APPLY to your team.
In real life, do you know what projections would be?
RUMORS.
See if this sounds familiar...
Your Aunt Ruth comes to your house and says, "Do you know what your Uncle Ted said about your Mother?"
In fantasy life it is, "Do you know what Baseball Headquarters said about Lonnie Chisenhall?"
Right?

Projections are ENTERTAINMENT.
They're not to be leaned on.
It's an educated guess as to what will happen in the coming year.
A guess by somebody other than yourself.
Who is drafting and paying for the team?
Guaranteed, it is not a fella read on an internet site.

It isn't even like copying off the smartest kid in class.
The smartest kid in class does not project.
He writes down answers already known.
We don't know our answers. Nobody knows our answers.
Yet, some copy anyway.

In a sense, ADP are projections.
Instead of one writer or a gaggle of writers from a site, it is a gaggle (the plural for many fantasy players) of drafters in the NFBC.
Ah, but we don't sometimes trust that gaggle.
We don't know where that gaggle has been.
So, we trust HQ, OLH, or some other site well known enough for just initials.

You know how we tell our kids, "Do as I say, not as I do"
That, is how we should look at projections.
Read how these sites came up with their projections.
It can be very enlightening.
If just quoting projections or using them as a guide for your picks, no matter where from, the odds are, you will not have long term success in this hobby.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Bjs2025
Posts: 382
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:43 pm

Re: Did You Hear What HQ Said About Chisenhall?

Post by Bjs2025 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:53 am

What would you propose instead of projections?

DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Did You Hear What HQ Said About Chisenhall?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:29 pm

Bjs2025 wrote:What would you propose instead of projections?
Quite simply, nothing.
Projections are swell entertainment.
The problem is that even projectionists know that injuries and under or over performance will run roughshod over projections.
Laying them to rest.
Projections are an off season exercise that rarely come to fruition for the real season.
No matter the projections, we will still pick the player that suits us best.

I'm in a draft right now with a fellow that LOVES his offense.
He admits that he put off pitching to obtain this offense.
Here it is...

JD Martinez
Dee Gordon
Willson Contreras
Khris Davis
Justin Turner
Kyle Seager
Kevin Kiermaier
Justin Bour
Ian Kinsler
Eugenio Suarez
Zack Cozart

And that is just after 15 rounds.
He probably has met his 'projections' on offense.
But has he?
Let's be the fantasy devil here....

'Dee Gordon was struck in the elbow by a pitch and will miss 10-12 weeks'.

Whether this drafter knows it or not, Gordon is the lynch pin of his offense.
He has little speed and many questionable batting averages that Gordon is needed to prop up.
With one injury, this drafter is looking at a 1 in stolen bases.
His batting average loses three or four spots.
But, on paper and with his projections, he is a happy camper.

'Layering' can be an alternative method.
Losing one player like Gordon, and 10 possible standings points in a draft is not good.
Layering players like Jean Segura or Andrelton Simmons, or other players of that ilk to support Gordon would have been wiser than leaning on his hr-rbi-r projections as he seems to have done.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Bjs2025
Posts: 382
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:43 pm

Re: Did You Hear What HQ Said About Chisenhall?

Post by Bjs2025 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:11 pm

I think what you just described above with "layering" is what I mean when I say draft "enough value." I will always use projections and have had great success doing it but I know that they will most likely become only 70% ish true, I'm not naive. BUT, if i get enough players at a "discount" of what their realistic projection $ amount sits at then usually that nets me at the minimum a top third of the league team and more likely a casher.

DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Did You Hear What HQ Said About Chisenhall?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:22 pm

The best thing that can happen in a draft is when the rest of the field underplays a player that we want to overplay.
For instance, in a snake draft, in the fifth round, you are in the middle of the round really wanting both Posey and Hosmer.
You pick Posey because you were a little surprised he made it that far.
Then, in the sixth round, Hosmer makes it all the way back to you.

Drafters call this 'value'. Really, it is only self-gratification since the rest of the draft did not see Posey and Hosmer as we did.
In fact, they saw 'value' in passing on Posey and Hosmer. 'Value' is everywhere! Which is why the word is so overused.
Some say that beating ADP is 'value'. Again, that is self-gratification, since nobody knows the true outcome until September.
Sometimes we're right. Sometimes ADP is right.
I will call it a 'bargain' when I like a player and I get that player later than thought.
A bargain fits better in that it is more personal.
A dollar for a two dollar bag of Doritos would be a bargain for me, but easily passed by a workout fiend.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

headhunters
Posts: 1976
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Re: Did You Hear What HQ Said About Chisenhall?

Post by headhunters » Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:14 pm

a great man said- "price is what you pay- value is what you get". in a draft or auction you are always paying a price. at the end of the year you will find out your value is . carry on.

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: Did You Hear What HQ Said About Chisenhall?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:28 pm

headhunters wrote:a great man said- "price is what you pay- value is what you get". in a draft or auction you are always paying a price. at the end of the year you will find out your value is . carry on.
xactly!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Bjs2025
Posts: 382
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:43 pm

Re: Did You Hear What HQ Said About Chisenhall?

Post by Bjs2025 » Tue Feb 20, 2018 6:51 am

headhunters wrote:a great man said- "price is what you pay- value is what you get". in a draft or auction you are always paying a price. at the end of the year you will find out your value is . carry on.
That is true but without any kind of roadmap or guide...a "Projection," for instance...how exactly do you have any feeling at all what you have? If you don't use projections do you draft Giancarlo Stanton and believe he could either hit 45 HR or suddenly be a slap hitting base stealer? Its preposterous to throw out using projections as a guide to draft with but if you do so please join any league I'm ever in. Using them doesn't mean the user believe steadfastly that EXACT projection will come true for each and every player but...usually about 70% of projections will which is a great way to accrue perceived "value."

DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Did You Hear What HQ Said About Chisenhall?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:36 am

Bjs2025 wrote:
headhunters wrote:a great man said- "price is what you pay- value is what you get". in a draft or auction you are always paying a price. at the end of the year you will find out your value is . carry on.
That is true but without any kind of roadmap or guide...a "Projection," for instance...how exactly do you have any feeling at all what you have? If you don't use projections do you draft Giancarlo Stanton and believe he could either hit 45 HR or suddenly be a slap hitting base stealer? Its preposterous to throw out using projections as a guide to draft with but if you do so please join any league I'm ever in. Using them doesn't mean the user believe steadfastly that EXACT projection will come true for each and every player but...usually about 70% of projections will which is a great way to accrue perceived "value."
Puhleese!
When at an auction or snake draft, projections don't have to be used.
In your mind, (not on paper or computer) you should have a feeling or even numbers in what each player is capable of doing.
For Stanton, this would be 45-65 homers, 100-130 rbi, etc.
Why do projectionists feel the need to PINPOINT these numbers, then be wrong on them almost all the time?
We're playing at the highest level. You should know every player and their capabilities just by looking at their names.

The things that are NOT in a projection are a lot more pertinent.
Like Stanton's change of team.
Like Stanton's chance of injury.
Where Stanton is drafted in a snake.
How much to pay in an auction.
Those are all projections made in your mind.
Why do we need made-up numbers on paper or a computer?

Let's take a player.
Trea Turner is my weapon of choice this year.
Turner is young.
He may play the whole season without getting hurt.
If so, he'll probably put up nice numbers.
I don't think those numbers will be good enough to match where he is taken in drafts, but good numbers.
I'll give him .280/100/12/70/60
Those numbers are printed, but they are of no use to me.
In my mind, Turner won't play a full season. To me, he plays shortstop like Tulo, diving for balls that don't need dove for, throwing off balance needlessly, etc.
I KNOW that Turner is capable of very good numbers, but I'm not a slave to them because I also KNOW I won't be drafting him.

I show up to every draft with a list of players.
No numbers.
Strike each name off the list as called.
Keeping an eye on the team drafted. Looking at the names of the team, we should be able to know exactly what categories are lacking and which are flourishing.
Looking at numbers 'assigned' to them only garbles things up, may mislead me, or worse, may make me artificially chase a category.

If projections work for you. Great.
But, you'll find later that they're really not needed.
You really will :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Did You Hear What HQ Said About Chisenhall?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:42 am

One more thing...
Those numbers or projections only have 'value' to those that assign them.
Yet, 'value' is proclaimed by many.
I heard a guy on radio say that he got 'value' by drafting Buster Posey in the fourth round.
This is only by his own reckoning.
In a 10, 12, or 15 team draft, he drafted Posey too early.
BUT, if his projections have Posey as a player who returns second round numbers, he did, indeed, get some kind of'value' in his own mind.
In this case, every drafter in the league received 'value' in that the drafter was happy with his 'value' and the other drafers saw 'value' in a player being drafted too early.
'Value' is everywhere and nowhere at the same time.
Stupid and ultra misused in our hobby..
Last edited by DOUGHBOYS on Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Did You Hear What HQ Said About Chisenhall?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:13 am

(In my best 'Columbo')....Uhh, one more thing :D

When going to a casino, we do not have paper or computer to help us with odds.
If we were to use projections as to whether to 'hit' or 'stand' on 15 in blackjack, wouldn't that be the place to use those
'projections'?
The odds and 'feel' are up to us.
We have a general sense of the odds before making our decision.
It's the same feeling with the drafting of each player.
We have a sense of each player and how they'll effect our categories.
When a player we covet does comes to us at a bargain price, we're as ecstatic as having a '20' with the dealer showing a 'six'.
We love the situation.
Both situations, however, only make us feel good. We like our chances. There is no 'value'.
Value is only received if we're right about that player as the season progresses and if the dealer, indeed, busts.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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