1968 Aces...Utilized, 2017 Aces...Rested

[DOUGHBOYS]

Did you have trouble keeping your best pitchers in your lineup last year?
It's no wonder.
Back in the day, the best starting pitchers got the most starts. This was a tactic used by Managers that, you know, wanted to win a lot of games.
In the year of the Pitcher, 1968, Denny McLain, Fergie Jenkins, Dean Chance, Juan Marichal, and Gaylord Perry started the most games.
Starting an average of 40 games, they averaged 24 Wins per man.

Fast forward to 2017, there has only been one pitcher in the last six years to start 35 games (David Price- 2016)
Only two pitchers even started 34 games. And they started 34 games, not because their Managers were trying to win games.
It just happened that they made their turn most of the time (Chris Archer and Kevin Gausman).
The four Aces and first round picks in this years drafts?
Chris Sale- 32 Starts
Max Scherzer- 31 Starts
Corey Kluber- 29 Starts
Clayton Kershaw- 27 Starts

Remember the opening line question to this post?
If not, go back and look.
Ready?
Only 46 Pitchers started even 30 games last year.
That is only three Pitchers per 15 fantasy teams that made even 30 Starts.
Yikes.
The numbers had crept down before this....
2014- 68 pitchers started 30 games
2015-66
2016- 62
The 46 Pitchers in 2017 was a leap. This was predominately because of the new 10-day disabled list.
The 10-day disabled list allowed Managers to rest (the object for Aces is the opposite of 1968, they were to be used then, They are to be rested now) many pitchers.
The new disabled list allowed Managers to give any pitcher a phantom injury and voila, that pitcher misses one start and comes back like Dick Nixon, tanned rested, and relaxed in 10 days to make his next start.

As NFBC fantasy players, we still tried to stream pitchers from the FAAB list.
Pickings were slimmer than ever before.
There were more and more NFBC starting lineups with six Starters and three relievers.
Even five Starters and four relievers were seen.
Almost mimicing real baseball in using relievers more often.
The streaming fear that game operators have, is becoming less of a threat with each passing year.
A Start a week is becoming more the norm.

This year, the players fought for and received more off days during the regular season.
It'll be interesting to see how Managers use these extra rest days.
There won't be as much call to pull the phantom injury bit.
For fantasy, it means even less chances of streaming since there will be less six and seven game weeks for clubs.
This year, there will be 27 weeks in the season.
Only 67 Pitchers had more than 27 Starts last year.

We are reaching the time where we could use pitchers in our lineup twice a week as we use hitters.
With relievers, it would be nice to throw them against the Rays lineup while benching them for the Yankees or Red Sox.
With Starters, if they happened to still get two Starts in a week, it would be nice to be picky with them as well.
Of course, this would be a major rule change.
And one not taken too lightly.
A rule change withing sight, but probably not one we will see this year or even next.
It'll take still a little more thinning of Starters and Managers using even more relievers. Which they will.
It makes them feel smart.
For us, it would mean more time on Friday's in juggling pitching for lineups.
We would be a little like Major League Managers in trying to find the best matchups.
It might even make us feel smart.
Ok, I went too far there......

[ToddZ]

Standard Monday for everyone and Friday for hitters are free moves

Charge $20 FAAB for any other move, any day of the week.

Max would be 50 per year, about two a week - and that's without buying a single free agent.

$20 FAAB negotiable, call it a starting point

[Edwards Kings]

So fewer starts. Shorter starts.

You do many more leagues than I do, Dan, so I would be interested, if you are willing to open your strategy mind (unlike some players who keep their strategy as secure as the formula for Coca-Cola), how is this Brave New World changing some of your drafts? Are you going for more pitchers early? Are you giving a greater premium for those guys you think will average at least six innings per start? You already mentioned perhaps a more balanced starter/reliever mix...more 7th/8th inning relievers (I remember back in the day when I had Aurelio"Señor Smoke" López on a winning team the year he had 10 vulture wins!)?

[DOUGHBOYS]

I am very free with 'strategies' at this time of year. I feel that 50 round drafts with no FAAB is so much different than 30 round drafts with FAAB, that I have no problem at all.
Plus, there is the unknown-known factor. At this time of year, there are many, many unknowns.
Many, many free agents have not signed.
Some teams have unfinished starting rotations.
Some teams don't have a viable or reliable closer.
Some teams have offensive holes.
Most of these unknowns will be known for the more important 30 round drafts.

So far, I myself, have not changed my strategy much. I still look for the basic 7-2 Starter-Closer combination.
If I don't get the second Closer, I don't worry about it. There are still more than a handful of Closer jobs yet to be determined.
Going 'fishing' for a prospective Closer at a later time is alright.
However, I have seen a change of styles from many other drafters.
A lot of drafters are drafting two Aces, then focus on offense for the next 10 rounds before taking up their rotation again.
This approach is basically giving up on number two and number three Starters.
Another thing more prevalent is that relievers (formerly known as Closers in Waiting...but not now) are drafted earlier.
Andrew Miller, Chris Devinsky, Addison Reed, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, Mychal Givens.
When relievers like this were selected in the past, it was with the idea that it may work out in getting Saves.
Now, their numbers are needed to fortify dwindling Starter numbers.
The average Starter now only wins 12-13 games.
That is getting ever so close to the number of games that some quality relieving vultures can garner.
Hoyt Wilhelm and Goose Gossage would be very valuable to today's fantasy player!

For the Main Event, I expect more relievers to be an option.
There numbers are a bit more secure and odds for a chance at a Win have greatly increased.
I believe there will be many more 6 Starter- 3 Reliever combinations for starting rosters.
Maybe even 5-4 for some weeks.
The game is changing.
Two starts a week with more off days will be harder to stream than ever before.
And like I tell friends, if a two start pitcher has to be FAAB'ed, remember the reason he was available in FAAB before spending money on him.

The length of an average Start is now just over five innings.
A quality reliever throws 3-4 innings a week.
The difference between the two has never been this close in the past.
It surely effects our game.

[Edwards Kings]

Hmmmm...yes....makes sense and it is what I have been feeling as well. 2016 I made a point of drafting Betances (six starters, two closers, and Betances who in my notes I label as an "XP") mainly to protect my ERA and WHIP from less-than-ideal starters blowing up early, which had tagged me the prior couple of years, and because Betances could get 100+ K's during the year hopefully digging less of a whole in that category. I ended up dropping him later chasing Wins (a pitching category I thought I could make up some points on). It worked...kinda.

Last year I tried to get three closers...but one was Jenmar Gomez so that did not work so well during the draft...but I still think two things about today's environment...one, having the third closer may save you a few hundred FAAB money and second, we still need somewhere in the neighborhood of 80+ saves, so using the third closer, at least for a while, is what most of us need (i.e. so few 40+ save closers).

But that (three closers) is not really helping Wins and K's, which is where the XP (if you get one of the arms you mentioned) comes in. They do not dig a whole for K's (still a very few bullpen arms get 100+ K's though) and probably pick up more wins than the three to five or so you might expect from your closer. Wins are getting more stacked against us, so the K's is manageable to a certain extent especially now that we need to approach 1,400 to get the necessary category points. I think this (using the high K XP pitcher) plays into the two aces category (getting those two arms that will get you between 400 and 450 K's to anchor the category).

[Gb2715]

In my experience (although not as much as you sharks) I am always chasing some stat in the pitching categories. That to me is just part of the fun of the game. I am also always chasing a 2nd catcher and if I grab that catcher then I lost out on a good OF or SP. It's a no win situation and that what I like about this format. It keeps me "playing" the game the whole season. I am doing both 12 team and 15 team DC's right now and I'm thinking damn I would love to have this 12 team DC team in a main event! Such a difference in 3 teams and roster construction. All these different formats are what drew me to the NFBC that and I like donating my money to you pros. Soon (next year hopefully) I will be joining you guys in Vegas for the Main Event yearly.

[Edwards Kings]

Soon (next year hopefully) I will be joining you guys in Vegas for the Main Event yearly.

Man, once you do the events live, as much as you like it now, your enjoyment with grow exponentially.

[Gb2715]

I'm sure. Can't wait. I'm doing an auction tonight that I'm sure I'll get schooled in but it's a good time and good practice for later drafts. Good luck to all of you

[Edwards Kings]

I'm sure. Can't wait. I'm doing an auction tonight that I'm sure I'll get schooled in but it's a good time and good practice for later drafts. Good luck to all of you

Good luck. And do not sell yourself short. One thing we learned here is that there are no "experts". Sure, some of the guys do better than others, but if you are in one of these and stick with it, you have as good a shot as any.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Don't sell yourself short is right.
I don't know if I buy into this whole sharks/guppies thing.
If you are here...and 'here' means NFBC pages, it usually means you have graduated.
You've graduated from home leagues where the competition was admittedly poor.
You've graduated from the Yahoo Kid Universe of beating nine to 14 other faceless individuals, who most gave up on their teams two weeks after the season began.
In short, you want real competition, that is why you are 'here'.

There are some fellas who have had success here.
While their successes are wildly heralded, their failures are not.
One year, a fella won the Overall competition while another team he drafted had hundreds of teams ahead of it.
Not a word was spoken about the bad team.
We are allowed to be smart and stupid in this game.
However, if winning a Main Event League or an Overall competition, the smart is remembered, the stupid fades.

There was a time I believed in the whole sharks/guppies thing. If a known Champion entered a league, I might say to myself that I'll wait for the next one.
It didn't last long. I realized that there are NO experts in this game. The game evolves too much for that.
Now, I avoid drafters who take too long to make a damned pick.
The worst circumstance for me during a draft is to have a drafter use all but a minute of their clock time, then select the player I covet most.
Bastard.
Anyways...
There are folks who write well and use numbers to back up their rantings.
Believe me, because someone writes well and conceives their ideas in a pallatable form does not make one an expert.
It makes them entertaining.
Same with the spoken word fellas on Podcasts and radio/tv.
They can spout all the information they want, but when it comes to a draft, they're selecting from the same list of players that we have in front of us.

if you are 'here', you don't want to be embarrassed.
You have studied. You know that hardly a soul will drop out of league till they deem themselves out of the running for cash.
And even then, most players will stick it out.
Their may be no experts in the NFBC, but their ARE a lot of folks who put in a lot of study, spreadsheets, and the time to have a great upcoming year.
The best players in the world are 'here'.
Writing well or speaking well is secondary to the names on our lips at draft time.
Ultimately, we know that is what will separate this years supposed 'sharks and guppies'.
The study and time put into that research will determine the names on those lips.

[Gb2715]

Very good point Dan. I am doing more drafts this year as part of my prep. On of the things I most enjoy here is the competition. It's not fun if you don't have to try. I also enjoy reading all your write ups. You write really well yourself and really engage with the people your are writing for. Makes my day sometimes when I read your stuff and lol. Thanks for all that. Soon I will see you in a draft. I would love the chance to watch you do this thing we call a hobby. It's about loving the game of baseball and the numbers involved.

[Ice8412]

I really enjoy reading your stuff, it's rock solid!!

A lot of great insight, I learn something new every time I read one of your posts.

I love the NFBC as well, last year was the first time I won a 15 team league. I just kept coming back and trying to get better.

Thx for all the great posts!

John.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I really enjoy reading your stuff, it's rock solid!!

A lot of great insight, I learn something new every time I read one of your posts.

I love the NFBC as well, last year was the first time I won a 15 team league. I just kept coming back and trying to get better.

Thx for all the great posts!

John.

Thank you very much.
Much appreciated, Sir!