Early Drafting and Shohei Otani

[DOUGHBOYS]

I get a lot of calls, texts, and emails this time of year.
Mostly, because friends know that I have been in early drafts. They want a line as to where certain players are being drafted.
I always tell them. I'm not a big believer in ADP, so helping others with the 'correct placement' before they draft is just a nicety for me.

The player asked about most is Shohei Otani. Otani has gone in a wide variance of rounds in early drafts.
The fourth, the sixth, the eighth, and the 14th rounds.
Nobody is right and nobody is wrong here.
Otani is an unknown for us. Most of us haven't even seen film on him.
Heck, we don't even know how to spell his name.
Otani and Ohtani being published. But that stuff will sort itself out.

Otani is a gamble that fantasy baseball lovers, well, love.
The unknown magic of a player unseen or a guy like Christian Yelich. No matter how we feel about Yelich, he doesn't match the wonder of the unknown.
Especially when the unknown can hit and pitch well.
But, we don't care about that for this year.
He has already been declared a Pitcher, rendering his hitting prowess as just a novelty.

Otani will fit well in America. He has never thrown over 160 innings. That is the way American pitchers are trending.
To further complicate matters for Otani drafters is that he was hurt most of last year and only threw 25 innings.
That puts a cap on what to expect from Otani in 2018.
Personally, I feel he'll be a much better bet after a season of 150 innings at the Big League level.
True, his mystique will be gone.
But that's what happens.
We lose mystique and gain numbers.
And for us, even though we forget at this time of year, the numbers are more important.