Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

[DOUGHBOYS]

Each and every draft is different. There are many factors. But the main reason why each draft is different is because 15 drafters in one draft have contrasting opinions than the next, and the next, etc.
We will have many, many drafts and be amazed that one player 'dropped' or was taken higher than other drafts.
For instance, take the poll about Aaron Judge.
The last I saw, there were 11 who don't buy into a Judge repeat of 2017 and four who did.
Let's say there is one draft who have those 11 drafters and four more who think as the 11 does about Judge.
Judge could 'fall' to the second round in this draft, while in most others, he is a top eight pick.

If Judge does repeat his year or even has a better year next year, a lot of people will look at the drafters in that league as 'weak'. For some reason, if the opposite happens, drafters, or drafters in a league are not considered weak.
For another example, if taking Jonathon Villar in the second round of drafts last year, it doesn't make a draft 'weak', it is simply a drafter following adp.
Drafts never get called out for following adp, only when they don't.

The first few rounds of drafts are seemingly based on adp. They are not.
They are built on Anticipation of Continuation (AOC).
If a player has played at a high level, especially the previous year, AOC puts that player in top rounds.
It is why Judge will be drafted highly this year and why Villar was drafted highly last year.

I have been in two drafts for this coming year.
No adp.
14 of 15 first rounders were the same for both drafts.
In the first draft, JD Martinez was a first rounder, In the second draft, Martinez went 16th, while Carlos Correa moved from 17th pick into the first round.
All first rounders had a wonderful year, including Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner who were 'forgiven' for their injuries.

I will probably not roster Trea Turner this year on my probable 20-some odd teams. Turner is a magnificent player.
His speed, an asset that is hard to find in today's game.
His problem and the problem I have with Turner is that he has only played 100 games one time during his professional career.
And even that year, it was just 116 games.
For me, Turner is Tulo in that regard.
When he plays, gold.
But nobody is gold when not playing.
I penalize him for injury more harshly than other owners.
If there are 14 other drafters who think like I do when entering a draft, our draft will be perceived as 'weak' if Turner does not get hurt.

I'd love to have Turner on my team. My penalty for his injury past is more severe than as a first round player.
It could work the other way as well.
Last year, I felt that drafters punishment for Lance Lynn was too severe.
Lynn was coming back from Tommy John. I forgive that easier, when the pitcher has had a lot of experience and had more than a year since the surgery to come back.
Lynn landed on most of my teams.

Anticipation of Continuation and injury make strange bedfellows.
Last year, Madison Bumgarner was a top pitcher. He was being drafted in the first round in most Main Events.
Then, his injury presented itself and whether it was the injury or the miles per hour lost on the fastball in coming back, Bumgarner has lost first round status.
Even second round.
He was selected in the third round of both drafts.
Meanwhile, besides having 200 strike outs, Robby Ray had little in the way of AOC.
He was a pitcher that could sink or swim.
He swam.
Well.
This year, with AOC behind him, he passed Bumgarner in a draft.
Is it right?
Heck, we don't know.
We've never reall have discovered what ir 'right'.
But it sure is fun trying each year.

[2COR5:17]

Yikes Tulo- Turner comps. Scaring me off my boy!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Yikes Tulo- Turner comps. Scaring me off my boy!

Ha!
I can't scare anybody unless they took a look at me.
Comparing ANY player with Tulo is indeed, scary.
The comp is because each plays the same position and can't seem to play for long periods of time.
The difference being that Tulo's is a long playing record and Turner's career, a 45 rpm record.
Turner drafters will love having me in their drafts. If joined in my opinion by other drafters, Turner will 'fall'.
Although I believe I will be in the minority and Turner will be drafted highly.

[DOUGHBOYS]

While the subject is up, let's talk about Trea Turner.
There COULD be something wrong with every ball player. We are on the outside looking in, so we don't really know much when it comes to a players body or injury, especially going into a new season.
So, we depend on past history.
We do know that Matt Carpenter and Miguel Cabrera have chronic back problems and if we read on RotoWorld that it was occurring again, we knew the chances before drafting them.
Same with Daavid Price, Tanaka, or any Mets pitcher when it comes to arms.

A fella like Turner is different. He is a 'flinger'. When young and full of vigor, the odds are good that a player will be a flinger.
A flinger flings his body everywhere, almost always has a dirty uniform.
Fans love flingers.
Fantasy players not so much.
When Turner flings in the hole to catch a ball, the fan thinks 'What a play!'
His fantasy owner thinks, 'Don't hurt yourself'.
Not all young players are flingers. Ichiro could write a book on "HOW Not To Get Hurt".
No fence crashing, very few all-out dives, mostly feet first on slides.
Ichiro has received a lot of credit through his playing years, but not enough in the art of staying healthy.
On the infield, Robinson Cano is not a flinger. Thought to be lazy by a lot of fans, Cano has kept many fantasy drafters happy through the years.

Turner missed time last year with a broken wrist (60 day dl) (no flinging involved)and a hamstring (10 day dl)
And it really aren't the injuries, by themselves, that scare me most.
It's that he hasn't proven to be in 'baseball shape'.
Baseball shape to me means that you have a few seasons of 150 games under a belt.
If risking a number one pick on any player, this almost should be a requirement in my eyes.

As far as Trea Turner, the baseball player, I think he is wonderful.
In 2014, a lot of 'experts' thought he might be the number one overall choice.
But (not to rub salt in the wounds), there was a lot of concern over an ankle injury he had endured at the time.
Turner, a long with Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton have very, very high floors for stolen bases, their ceilings, the sky.
Each will be stupidly criticized for not having a higher on base percentage.
SABRS, only going by statistics and not willing to embrace the idea that pitchers do not want to see speedsters with little power on first base and accordingly, will not 'nibble' and throw them more strikes.
SABRS have a dis-connect in pitcher/batter relationships, preferring to only follow the numbers.

In early drafts, Turner has gone in the first round, Gordon in the second, Hamilton in the third.
I feel this is correct for most drafters.
Hamilton offers little besides stolen bases.
Gordon adds more runs and better average.
Turner, if playing a full season, could surpass both these players in every category.
He has 80 stolen base potential, his power numbers could rise, and he plays in a lineup that will afford him a lot of rbi and run scoring opportunities.

Does Turner belong in the first round?
Absolutely.
Does he belong as a number three pick in the first round as he was in the earliest draft?
Again, yes.
Of all first rounders only Turner, Trout, Altuve, Goldy, Betts, and possibly Harper can give maximum benefits in all five categories if playing their best year.
Turner is that good.
If he is taken number one again, it wouldn't shock me.

As said before, it won't be me taking him that highly.
Unless I get a wild hair in a Draft Champions and want to try a new approach.
'New Apprroach' is me wanting to be like the other kids in Fantasy Camp
We take everything into account.
We can focus on the attributes of players more than faults.
In the first round, backburnering those faults is darned difficult.
I could be wrong.
Trea Turner putting up a .300.120/18/95/65 line is a distinct possibility.
Before I select him though, he has to get over flinging and prove he is in baseball shape.

[Edwards Kings]

Great as always Dan. Love the analysis of Trea Turner. But..when speaking about guys like Turner, Gordon, and Hamilton....

Each will be stupidly criticized for not having a higher on base percentage.
SABRS, only going by statistics and not willing to embrace the idea that pitchers do not want to see speedsters with little power on first base and accordingly, will not 'nibble' and throw them more strikes.

Actually I think SABRs look at OBP, but not in a vacuum. Is the OBP so low as to risk a lower spot in the batting order or even loss of a job? Turner...no. Gordon...no. Hamilton...hmmmm. But even then a SABR will look at why the OBP is low. For base stealers, it is typcially due to a low walk rate (i.e. for the top ten from 2017, only DeShields, Betts, and Pham had walk rates of better than 10% and that good eye ( ) is reflected in the OBP). But SABRS also look at contact rate. Those other seven in the top ten all had Contact Rates better than 81% except Hamilton (the Reds have been looking for a better option than him for years) and Buxton. And are they making hard contact? How about line-drives (don't typically have better than league average power, so not may fly balls) to help the old batting average.

Yes, the pundits work OBP like they were Billy Beane's legitimate successor, but SABRs...SABRs are too pretty and too smart just to rely on OBP.

By the way, what do you think about Turners 15% Line-drive rate from last year...hmmmm?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Do we want a lot of line drives from speedsters?
I don't think it is a necessity.
Turner, Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton hit the ball softly A LOT.
Actually, we prefer a softly hit ball by the threesome over any fly ball.

I've always been of the mind that if Gordon and Hamilton were traded for each other, it would knock 20 points off Gordon's average and add 20 points to Hamilton's.
Hamilton plays in one of the smallest parks in baseball. Fielders creep up on him, so that he is 'robbed' of more soft hits than Gordon, who plays in a vast baseball park.

I see criticisms of these three and their OBP way too much.
I guess it is a generalization that all SABRS do not look at the big picture, But I do know that a lot of them do not.
I believe that Cincinnati would be a better team if Hamilton were to hit ninth and Votto were to leadoff.
That's just me. I like putting players in a place where they can do what they do best.
For Votto, it is not run producing, but rather putting himself in a position to score.
For Hamilton, it is creating runs in a vacuum.
Broadcasters like to say that he can create runs by himself.
He can.
But those moments are farther and fewer between than what he does best...and that is to make outs.
His defense keeps him on real teams. His stolen bases keep him on fantasy teams.

Our game is year to year.
I could make the excuse for Turner that it is hard to come back from wrist surgery.
I'd be talking out my ass though. I don't know if it had anything to do with Turner's line drive rate.
Despite that line drive rate despite his on base percentage and if guaranteed full health over the next year, I would consider Turner a number one pick overall in next year's draft.
I believe he is that good.

Edit- I also believe that SABRS, not only look at OBP, I believe they carry a blanket, get down on their knees, blanket beneath them, and pray to the OBP Gods five times every day.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Let's do another one....

Right off the top, I will say that I did not own Jake Lamb last year.
At all.
Now, Torey Lovullo got names as Manager of the year in the National League.
And I suppose his selection was as good as anybody else.
We can find great and not so great things to say about each candidate.

The bone I have to pick with Lovullo is his use of Jake Lamb. In this day and age, splits are known to all.
I believe there is a gene in every manager called the lefty/righty gene.
This gene makes them feel smart. Even if the lefty facing the righty wasn't as good as the righty just replaced to not face the righty.

Jake Lamb cannot hit left handers.
Never has.
And I dare say, never will.
Lamb has never hit over .200 vs lefties. In fact, he has a .161 batting average for a career vs, lefties.
If any player in the Major Leagues should be platooned, it is Jake Lamb.
An 84% chance of making an out? And he starts?
C'mon man!

For fantasy purposes, Lamb is a tough guy to own during the season. This is the main reason I do not own him.
A three game series vs the Dodgers with Maeda/Wood/Kershaw
A three game series vs the Giants with Cueto/Moore/Bumgarner
And those are in-division teams faced a lot.
He is, truly, more suited for the daily game rather than the NFBC.

Lamb is sweet vs. righties.
Mashes them. This is where his owners must make hay.
His batting average almost doubles at .282
His chance for extra base hits and homers also multiply.

For some reason, Lovullo is like a teenage girl who has 'fallen in love' with a prisoner.
He and she thinks they can change them.
Lamb is a star.
Vs. right handed pitchers.
Against lefties, even Lovullo must concede he is not.
After all, maybe the most telling stat about Lamb is that although he has been in the same division his whole career as the Dodgers, he has never faced Clayton Kershaw.
Chalk one up for Lovullo.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Just to add something about Lamb...
Projectors love season-end totals.
It is the main ingredient in their coming year projections.
Lamb is an easy projection. He faces righties three-four times as much as lefties, so it is easy for a projector to mix those splits and come up with his yearly numbers.

We can't think that way.
We know that a player like Trea Turner may not be available to us for long stretches.
And almost as importantly and for completely different reasons, we have to realize that Lamb will not be available to our lineups for short stretches.

Our game is so hard.
When we do think we're doing the right thing and benching Lamb against two lefties, he'll pick that time to hit two homers and have five rbi vs. the righty.
Fantasy Gods enjoy a good laugh at our expense.

[headhunters]

Dear Dan, AKA Doughboys. To play "professionally" means to get paid. I began my professional career after the June 2014 draft. I played in 69 games- about 85% of the games available to play. In 2015 I played in 143- over 90% of those available. In 2016 I played 156- virtually 100% of the games available. Last year I got hurt. Never have I played 116 games in a year.

Sincerely, TREA TURNER

[DOUGHBOYS]

Thanks for calling me out on that, Mike.
I see where I made the mistake.
I looked on MILB.COM at his statistics and did not factor in his major leagues games in 2016.
It is also where I got the 116 games as a high.
He is not as pristine as you make him out to be, nor as bad as I originally thought.
He is, still, a flinger.
Flinging hasn't gotten him in trouble in the Major leagues.
Yet.
It usually catches up to everybody though.
Anybody can get hit in the wrist and anybody can pull a hamstring. At the same time, it is his ilk that predominantly gets pulled hammys.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I have been asked in an email to name 10 'flingers'.
Fair enough.

Trea Turner
Adam Eaton
Jason Kipnis
Byron Buxton
David Dahl (first hand experience at the minor league level. 'Do not draft list' this year for me.)
Yasiel Puig
Kevin Kiermeier
Chris Owings
Javier Baez
Trevor Story

Some of these players have been injured a lot. Some have not been hurt much at all.
We are a year to year concern. It has to be an issue every year.
The outfielders can be put into a sub-group of 'wallbangers'. But they would still belong in the group. Buxton, Dahl, and Kiermeier especially seem to have no sense where other outfielders are.
The same affliction that made Jacoby Ellsbury a flinger.

Once a flinger, not always a flinger.
Bryce Harper has made great strides in not being a flinger.
Now, if he could only touch first base without hurting himself...

I have a very, very short 'Do No Draft List.
Dahl is the only flinger I will not draft. BUT, I have seen Dahl play a lot of games 'live', so feel I know him better than most NFBC'ers.
He is definitely a player that would have to change his style before drafting him.
And who knows, he could change before this year, I just don't know and won't know till the season begins.

[Edwards Kings]

Do we want a lot of line drives from speedsters?

Yes. Getting on base is typically a walk or a hit after a ball is put into play. A ball is typically put in play via grounder, line drive or fly ball. I agree I do not want to see many fly balls as these speed guys typically do not have the power to hit more than the can of corn. And typically line drives have the better chance to be a hit.



The secret word for the day is "Typically"!

Hamilton plays in one of the smallest parks in baseball. Fielders creep up on him, so that he is 'robbed' of more soft hits than Gordon, who plays in a vast baseball park.

I do not know...no matter the field, I think the fielders creep up on him. Hamilton would have trouble hitting a home run out of a little league park.

Edit- I also believe that SABRS, not only look at OBP, I believe they carry a blanket, get down on their knees, blanket beneath them, and pray to the OBP Gods five times every day.

I cannot speak for other SABRs, but I do carry a blanket, I do get down on my knees, but I do not have my blanket beneath me (it would get dirty) and I have alternative reasons for haven fallen on my knees other than praying to the OBP Gods...

[DOUGHBOYS]

Best Otis...?

Amos Otis
Otis Redding
Otis, town drunk

I vote for the ladder...

[DOUGHBOYS]

41 qualified hitters had 40 walks or less.
Only 18 of those hit 20 homers or more

37 players walked 70 times or more.
Only three of those hitters had less than 20 home runs

Walks are, mostly, a threat induced statistic.
There are hitters who manipulate base on balls like Votto or Santana.
There are hitters who don't care to see a lot of pitches like Adam Jones or Yuli Gurriel.
But walks are trumpeted way too much when it is the pitcher who controls the destiny most of the time.

One more note...
I actually commend Dee Gordon for NOT getting more walks.
I believe that Gordon has figured out that pitchers, mostly, do not want to walk him.
Effectively, he has taken the walk out of the equation by hitting a lot of first pitches and early-in-the-count pitches.
Gordon finished second to last in the league to Gurriel in least pitches seen per plate appearance.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Man, I love talking baseball.
If anybody wants to bring up a subject, wind me up and I'll run with it...

[Bronx Yankees]

Man, I love talking baseball.
If anybody wants to bring up a subject, wind me up and I'll run with it...

OK, I’ll bite (love talking baseball too). Let’s stay away from fantasy and just talk baseball.

1. You are given $1,000 to bet on who will win the 2018 World Series. Odds are the same for every team, but you’re not allowed to bet on any of the 2017 playoff teams. Who are you betting on? (You can put it all on one team or split the bet among a few teams.)

2. Team that will increase its win total the most in 2018?

3. Team that will suffer the biggest decline in win total in 2018?

Mike

[Edwards Kings]

Man, I love talking baseball.
If anybody wants to bring up a subject, wind me up and I'll run with it...

OK, I’ll bite (love talking baseball too). Let’s stay away from fantasy and just talk baseball.

1. You are given $1,000 to bet on who will win the 2018 World Series. Odds are the same for every team, but you’re not allowed to bet on any of the 2017 playoff teams. Who are you betting on? (You can put it all on one team or split the bet among a few teams.)

2. Team that will increase its win total the most in 2018?

3. Team that will suffer the biggest decline in win total in 2018?

Mike

1. Atlanta of course. Though I would look at San Francisco too if they have an active offseason.

2. Atlanta of course. Pittsburgh as an alternative.

3. Miami.

[Edwards Kings]

Best Otis...?

Amos Otis
Otis Redding
Otis, town drunk

I vote for the ladder...

And the ladder appreciates it....

[DOUGHBOYS]

Man, I love talking baseball.
If anybody wants to bring up a subject, wind me up and I'll run with it...

OK, I’ll bite (love talking baseball too). Let’s stay away from fantasy and just talk baseball.

1. You are given $1,000 to bet on who will win the 2018 World Series. Odds are the same for every team, but you’re not allowed to bet on any of the 2017 playoff teams. Who are you betting on? (You can put it all on one team or split the bet among a few teams.)

2. Team that will increase its win total the most in 2018?

3. Team that will suffer the biggest decline in win total in 2018?

Mike

Good ones!

1. St Louis Cardinals-
Great organization.
They have a lot of pieces (especially in the outfield).
A lot of interesting young starters.
Their team will be one of the most intriguing teams to follow during the off season.

2. Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners.
I really like the Phils and Braves next year.
I don't know if they'll have enough firepower to surpass the Nationals, but I think it could be a race to the end.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers were so Jeckyll and Hyde this year. or is that Heckyl and Jeckyl, I don't know.
Dave Roberts loves to over manage.
When your bullpen comes through as the Dodgers bullpen did last year, he looks brilliant.
When they don't he will not look the same.
One more time, how can you start Yu Darvish when Clayton Kershaw is ready to pitch?
THAT will be the main question that comes from the playoffs.

Are these the most boring General Manager meetings in history?
Serious yawn.

[Bronx Yankees]

Man, I love talking baseball.
If anybody wants to bring up a subject, wind me up and I'll run with it...

OK, I’ll bite (love talking baseball too). Let’s stay away from fantasy and just talk baseball.

1. You are given $1,000 to bet on who will win the 2018 World Series. Odds are the same for every team, but you’re not allowed to bet on any of the 2017 playoff teams. Who are you betting on? (You can put it all on one team or split the bet among a few teams.)

2. Team that will increase its win total the most in 2018?

3. Team that will suffer the biggest decline in win total in 2018?

Mike

1. Atlanta of course. Though I would look at San Francisco too if they have an active offseason.

2. Atlanta of course. Pittsburgh as an alternative.

3. Miami.

Interesting, Wayne. I’ll let Dan weigh-in before commenting at length (it is his forum after all ) but I totally disagree re San Francisco. I think lots of teams (including but not limited to the Braves) are way closer than the Giants. Other than “payroll capability,” I think the Giants are one of the weakest positioned teams right now. MadBum has been great but will he get back to his old form post-injury? Cueto seems overpaid and looked bad last year. Moore sucks. Samardzija? Blah. Melancon - looking like a real bad contract for a non-dominant closer. The position players are old and/or unexciting. Posey? Getting older and power declining. Belt? Always hurt or not living up to hype. Panik? Blah. Crawford? Great glove/OK bat. Third base? Sandoval? Really? Outfield you got Span (worst defensive OF last year), Pence (old, declining), and a bunch of mediocre young guys. Few, if any, impact prospects. They got money to spend, but, man, do they got work to do! Sorry, just my two cents.

Mike

[Bronx Yankees]

Man, I love talking baseball.
If anybody wants to bring up a subject, wind me up and I'll run with it...

OK, I’ll bite (love talking baseball too). Let’s stay away from fantasy and just talk baseball.

1. You are given $1,000 to bet on who will win the 2018 World Series. Odds are the same for every team, but you’re not allowed to bet on any of the 2017 playoff teams. Who are you betting on? (You can put it all on one team or split the bet among a few teams.)

2. Team that will increase its win total the most in 2018?

3. Team that will suffer the biggest decline in win total in 2018?

Mike

Good ones!

1. St Louis Cardinals-
Great organization.
They have a lot of pieces (especially in the outfield).
A lot of interesting young starters.
Their team will be one of the most intriguing teams to follow during the off season.

2. Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners.
I really like the Phils and Braves next year.
I don't know if they'll have enough firepower to surpass the Nationals, but I think it could be a race to the end.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers were so Jeckyll and Hyde this year. or is that Heckyl and Jeckyl, I don't know.
Dave Roberts loves to over manage.
When your bullpen comes through as the Dodgers bullpen did last year, he looks brilliant.
When they don't he will not look the same.
One more time, how can you start Yu Darvish when Clayton Kershaw is ready to pitch?
THAT will be the main question that comes from the playoffs.

Are these the most boring General Manager meetings in history?
Serious yawn.

1. Cardinals. Totally agree. Was/is my first choice as well. Kind of like Brewers as a dark horse.

2. Phillies was my choice. Agree that Braves and Mariners could be considerations here. If Garrett Richards is healthy and they add Moose, I easily could see the Angels in the playoffs. Hate the Giants these days (see my reply to Wayne), although their win total was really bad last year so, yeah, a healthy MadBum could lead to some improvement, but they got a lot of work to do long-term.

3. I’d go D’Backs here. JD Martinez out, Tomas in. Greinke declines. Other question marks in rotation, pen and lineup. A radical choice, perhaps, but I think a lot went right last season and see more downside and little to no upside.

Mike

[Bronx Yankees]

I’d also add the Orioles as a team likely to decline, especially if they bail on Britton and Machado (although that might be the right move long-term if they’re not going to re-sign them). Never going to win if you only shop for starting pitching at the dollar store.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

I believe the Diamondbacks have a better bullpen than the Dodgers next year if they can find an anchor for it.

The Giants are going to make moves up the wazoo. Posey, Crawford, Span, and Panik will keep their jobs.
I believe the other starters will be traded, let go, or reserves.
They will be an interesting off-season team to follow as well.

Edit- Just saw your note....
Agree about BAL.
Who throws for them next year?
Yuck

[Edwards Kings]

I hear you Mike. But if there ever was a team prime for come back, I think it is SF. Yes...much OF help is needed. I like Panik and Crawford better than you. Posey is more than a pretty face with little more around him. Belt is Dan's love child...but I really liked his power profile last year.

Where does Arroyo fit in? Maybe he is the 3B option. So then you are upgrading the OF in the offseason. I still like that pitching staff...totally underperformed (results) last year.

Just throwing dice here...

[Edwards Kings]

I believe the Diamondbacks have a better bullpen than the Dodgers next year if they can find an anchor for it.

Bradley.