Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation
Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:02 pm
Each and every draft is different. There are many factors. But the main reason why each draft is different is because 15 drafters in one draft have contrasting opinions than the next, and the next, etc.
We will have many, many drafts and be amazed that one player 'dropped' or was taken higher than other drafts.
For instance, take the poll about Aaron Judge.
The last I saw, there were 11 who don't buy into a Judge repeat of 2017 and four who did.
Let's say there is one draft who have those 11 drafters and four more who think as the 11 does about Judge.
Judge could 'fall' to the second round in this draft, while in most others, he is a top eight pick.
If Judge does repeat his year or even has a better year next year, a lot of people will look at the drafters in that league as 'weak'. For some reason, if the opposite happens, drafters, or drafters in a league are not considered weak.
For another example, if taking Jonathon Villar in the second round of drafts last year, it doesn't make a draft 'weak', it is simply a drafter following adp.
Drafts never get called out for following adp, only when they don't.
The first few rounds of drafts are seemingly based on adp. They are not.
They are built on Anticipation of Continuation (AOC).
If a player has played at a high level, especially the previous year, AOC puts that player in top rounds.
It is why Judge will be drafted highly this year and why Villar was drafted highly last year.
I have been in two drafts for this coming year.
No adp.
14 of 15 first rounders were the same for both drafts.
In the first draft, JD Martinez was a first rounder, In the second draft, Martinez went 16th, while Carlos Correa moved from 17th pick into the first round.
All first rounders had a wonderful year, including Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner who were 'forgiven' for their injuries.
I will probably not roster Trea Turner this year on my probable 20-some odd teams. Turner is a magnificent player.
His speed, an asset that is hard to find in today's game.
His problem and the problem I have with Turner is that he has only played 100 games one time during his professional career.
And even that year, it was just 116 games.
For me, Turner is Tulo in that regard.
When he plays, gold.
But nobody is gold when not playing.
I penalize him for injury more harshly than other owners.
If there are 14 other drafters who think like I do when entering a draft, our draft will be perceived as 'weak' if Turner does not get hurt.
I'd love to have Turner on my team. My penalty for his injury past is more severe than as a first round player.
It could work the other way as well.
Last year, I felt that drafters punishment for Lance Lynn was too severe.
Lynn was coming back from Tommy John. I forgive that easier, when the pitcher has had a lot of experience and had more than a year since the surgery to come back.
Lynn landed on most of my teams.
Anticipation of Continuation and injury make strange bedfellows.
Last year, Madison Bumgarner was a top pitcher. He was being drafted in the first round in most Main Events.
Then, his injury presented itself and whether it was the injury or the miles per hour lost on the fastball in coming back, Bumgarner has lost first round status.
Even second round.
He was selected in the third round of both drafts.
Meanwhile, besides having 200 strike outs, Robby Ray had little in the way of AOC.
He was a pitcher that could sink or swim.
He swam.
Well.
This year, with AOC behind him, he passed Bumgarner in a draft.
Is it right?
Heck, we don't know.
We've never reall have discovered what ir 'right'.
But it sure is fun trying each year.
We will have many, many drafts and be amazed that one player 'dropped' or was taken higher than other drafts.
For instance, take the poll about Aaron Judge.
The last I saw, there were 11 who don't buy into a Judge repeat of 2017 and four who did.
Let's say there is one draft who have those 11 drafters and four more who think as the 11 does about Judge.
Judge could 'fall' to the second round in this draft, while in most others, he is a top eight pick.
If Judge does repeat his year or even has a better year next year, a lot of people will look at the drafters in that league as 'weak'. For some reason, if the opposite happens, drafters, or drafters in a league are not considered weak.
For another example, if taking Jonathon Villar in the second round of drafts last year, it doesn't make a draft 'weak', it is simply a drafter following adp.
Drafts never get called out for following adp, only when they don't.
The first few rounds of drafts are seemingly based on adp. They are not.
They are built on Anticipation of Continuation (AOC).
If a player has played at a high level, especially the previous year, AOC puts that player in top rounds.
It is why Judge will be drafted highly this year and why Villar was drafted highly last year.
I have been in two drafts for this coming year.
No adp.
14 of 15 first rounders were the same for both drafts.
In the first draft, JD Martinez was a first rounder, In the second draft, Martinez went 16th, while Carlos Correa moved from 17th pick into the first round.
All first rounders had a wonderful year, including Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner who were 'forgiven' for their injuries.
I will probably not roster Trea Turner this year on my probable 20-some odd teams. Turner is a magnificent player.
His speed, an asset that is hard to find in today's game.
His problem and the problem I have with Turner is that he has only played 100 games one time during his professional career.
And even that year, it was just 116 games.
For me, Turner is Tulo in that regard.
When he plays, gold.
But nobody is gold when not playing.
I penalize him for injury more harshly than other owners.
If there are 14 other drafters who think like I do when entering a draft, our draft will be perceived as 'weak' if Turner does not get hurt.
I'd love to have Turner on my team. My penalty for his injury past is more severe than as a first round player.
It could work the other way as well.
Last year, I felt that drafters punishment for Lance Lynn was too severe.
Lynn was coming back from Tommy John. I forgive that easier, when the pitcher has had a lot of experience and had more than a year since the surgery to come back.
Lynn landed on most of my teams.
Anticipation of Continuation and injury make strange bedfellows.
Last year, Madison Bumgarner was a top pitcher. He was being drafted in the first round in most Main Events.
Then, his injury presented itself and whether it was the injury or the miles per hour lost on the fastball in coming back, Bumgarner has lost first round status.
Even second round.
He was selected in the third round of both drafts.
Meanwhile, besides having 200 strike outs, Robby Ray had little in the way of AOC.
He was a pitcher that could sink or swim.
He swam.
Well.
This year, with AOC behind him, he passed Bumgarner in a draft.
Is it right?
Heck, we don't know.
We've never reall have discovered what ir 'right'.
But it sure is fun trying each year.