Real Baseball to Fantasy Baseball

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DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Real Baseball to Fantasy Baseball

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:44 am

Something really bothers me about that World Series game last night. I was raised and always had the opinion that if a game HAS to be won, you play your best players.
When Yu Darvish started the game last night, I thought that Dave Roberts had it in his mind that Clayton Kershaw could not throw or, at most, throw one inning.
It wasn't the case. Kershaw threw four innings.
WHEN YOU HAVE THE BEST, YOU THROW THE BEST!
I was rooting for the Astros, so it didn't bother me much from a rooting stance, but it seems to me that the modern day Manager tries to be a big factor in each game in showing how smart they are.
In this case, Roberts showed the opposite.

Anyway, this post is not about over-Managing. It is the fantasy repercussions of over-Managing.
And this comes from an exchange of e-mails with Mike Mager about baseball and its new treatment of pitching.
Baseball is going to continue to see less innings from starters. It is the way of the baseball world.
Owners want it, Managers want it, Starters agents want it, relievers agents want it.
The effects on us are many.
1. Quality starting pitching becomes rare(r).
2. Wins become more scarce from a known source.
3. Rookie starting pitchers will receive even less innings than before.
4. Middle relievers are more draftable.

Corey Kluber was the only pitcher in baseball to average seven innings a start last year.
Think about that.
That is only one inning more than the 'Quality Start' minimum that we scoffed at not long ago.
A Quality Start really has become quality.
Has limiting inngs for pitchers reduced injury?
The answer is no.
Several teams in the past had the same rotation throughout the year.
Last year, No team in baseball, kept the same rotation.

Five innings for a Win was a formality in the past, now, it is a high hurdle.
Starting pitchers average just a bit more than five innings each start.
For the first time in baseball history, no pitcher had even 19 Wins last year (shortened seasons excluded)
Middle relievers are divvying up the Wins that used to go to Starting Pitchers.
It may have Major League Baseball re-think the criteria for receiving a Win.

A new or Minor League arm is now something to baby.
Not having much more innings than the year before is the goal.
Again, these pamperers think it'll prevent injury and their new arm.
It is hard to conceive a rookie pitcher ever being a 'Rookie of the Year' again.

The change for us is that middle relievers will have more clout in drafts.
Yes, we can't forecast when Andrew Miller, Chris Devenski, Archie Bradley, or Delin Betances in getting Wins or Saves, but they will.
In fact, they could do what no starting pitcher can ever do in that it is possible that they total three Wins or Saves in a week.

Our fantasy game is changing because baseball is changing.
The over-Management of real players funnels down to our game.
One thing does make me smile though.
WE will continue to play our best players if available.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

benjamincarm
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Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 10:20 am

Re: Real Baseball to Fantasy Baseball

Post by benjamincarm » Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:03 am

I expect we see a big shift to a points based scoring system similar to the FanGraphs/SABR system in Ottoneu. I lobby every year to remove Ws from my oldest league to no avail. If the game is changing ours needs to as well, and not just how we draft, but how we score.

DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Real Baseball to Fantasy Baseball

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:46 am

There is one thing that we're going to meet with changing real baseball rules and fantasy baseball rules.
Resistance.
Hardly anybody likes change. Baseballers are inherently, traditionalists.
We'll hear 'It's been good for x amount of years' or 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it'.
The problem is that Wins is almost broke.
I don't know if a points system is the answer. Radical change would never do for traditionalists.
But sooner, rather than later, a change has to be coming.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Quahogs
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Re: Real Baseball to Fantasy Baseball

Post by Quahogs » Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:19 pm

If we want to take what is becoming such a random generating category and take it out the manager's(4 1/3 ip but hitting 75 pitch limit) and other pitcher's hands (relievers blowing wins) then maybe we drop WINS as a category and replace it with INNINGS PITCHED.

You still need to find that quality starter that doesn't get lit up. The 2ip 3x a week middleman suddenly has more value than before. LUCKING into wins becomes moot and weekly pitching roster creation suddenly takes on importance in that it you may need to start the Devenski / Chad Green types instead of blindly running 7 starters out there.

Kind of adds another root worthy element to the fantasy game. It's almost been idiotic how MLB grants wins anyway: Pitcher comes in after the starter can't go 5 - WIN Pitcher gives up 2 runs in the ninth but the team scores 2 to win it - WIN.

Other than tradition - why the heck not?

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KJ Duke
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Re: Real Baseball to Fantasy Baseball

Post by KJ Duke » Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:01 pm

I don't doubt pitcher usage will continue to evolve as Dan suggests. But rather than rules needing to be changed, it's the way we draft/manage need to change because relative pitcher values are changing. And that is an easier change, not subject to resistance, because it is forced upon us ... we can evolve or die (or just lose, in this instance).

If there is a rule change I hope it comes at the MLB level (what constitutes a Win) rather than the NFBC level (dump wins).

Likewise, happy to see Morton awarded the W last night rather than Devenski or whoever got that final out in the 5th. :)

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: Real Baseball to Fantasy Baseball

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:15 am

My thought is that neither Major League Baseball or the NFBC will change Wins rules.
MLB is quick to change rules concerning events that happen on the field (the Posey and Utley rule changes) and when the press screams (time of game), but when it comes to fans or fantasy players, little happens.

I doubt that the NFBC would ever change Wins either. Greg loves to compare past years with the current years statistics.
All of us, slow to invoke rule change.
I don't think that the addition of middle relievers to our rosters adds any intrigue as per strategy.
It is just something that we will have to do because baseball is trending that way, almost a necessary evil.
The Wins category, even more luck-worthy.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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