Anticipation of Continuation

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DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Anticipation of Continuation

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:25 pm

Anticipation of Continuation (AOC)

From year to year, the first few rounds of drafts share a lot of the same names. It is due to AOC.
AOC has us drafting the player who had a good year last year.
The player who has had a good career and stalled last year.
The minor league player who has put up good numbers.

AOC is also responsible for making us slow to punish players who previously put up good numbers. We anticipate that if healthy, he will resume putting up good numbers.
It took us years to punish Troy Tulowitzki and a fellow like Miguel Cabrera will probably follow the same path.
It's because we KNOW the numbers they put up when healthy, we don't really know how hurt or really anything about their injury.

AOC will drive Aaron Judge to be selected in first rounds of drafts this year. The totals are like shiny objects.
OVER 50 HOMERS.
We can dismiss the over 200 strike outs and the long slumps.
We anticipate, that at worse, he will have a similar year to this year.
THIS, this is where AOC has its largest problem.
It is only one year.
One year is not much of a continuation.
Last year, Jonathon Villar was taken in the second round of most high stakes drafts.
AOC, the predominant factor.
Forgotten, were his previous blah years.
AOC knows better.
But, it didn't.
This year, Villar fell to the 17th round of the PreMature League draft.
A harsh punishment. But not near as harsh as the punishment that Villar owners received from him this year.
AOC is now working off last year and the previous blah Villar years.
AOC's verdict is that Villar was a one hit wonder.

Another second rounder was stopped by AOC drafters.
Madison Bumgarner crashed his tricycle.
Bumgarner had never suffered an injury. It was one of the better points in drafting Bumgarner.
As well as performance, we bank on health when it comes to AOC as well.
We know the traps of drafting an Adam Eaton, a Byron Buxton, or a Kevin Kiermeier. These outfielders are wall busters who put their bodies before their drafters. (Thanks Bryce Harper for seeing the light)
AOC punishes these outfielders in that we are not surprised if these players do get hurt.
So, we knock them down a peg or two on our draft lists.
But, AOC does not allow for a Bumgarner injury.
It is plain misfortune.

I flat out laugh at the thought of AOC working for week to week football or daily fantasy sports.
I love the little green arrows up or red arrows down for a player who has had a good or bad week.
Just stupid.
Just because Orleans Darkwa has a good game one week, does not make him any better of a play for the next week.
AOC doesn't work like that.
The 'continuation' period is longer than one game.
We need results for weeks, months, a year, the more the better.
Any pickup after a game's worth of results is simply premature eFAABulation.

AOC has Mike Trout and Jose Altuve at the top of most draft lists.
We cannot fathom failure.
Any injury would be unfortunate, not chronic.
AOC has Matt Harvey and Steven Matz at the back of drafts.
We anticipate that they will not finish a year. And if they do, the likelihood of them being good for that year has long odds too.
We think that some are driven by ADP in putting Trout and Altuve one, two in drafts.
The real driving source is Anticipation of Continuation.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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