Sticking To My Guns...A Good or Bad Approach?

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'm a little ashamed of my Main Event draft. It doesn't look pleasing to the fantasy eye. It strayed from a lot of beliefs I have in fantasy baseball.
I went into the draft to do what everybody SAYS they will do, but what nobody ACTUALLY does. And that is to really take the highest players that we have on our draft lists.
We don't really do this. We say we do, but we don't. What happens to us is simple.
The draft begins.
Yes, once the draft begins and we see inventory start to move out of one category or position to quickly, we react.
I decided to stick by my guns for the first 10 rounds and draft strictly by my lists. I did this in the old days but got away from it because of roster construction concerns that make us veer from our lists a bit.

Anyway, here is the first 10 rounds of my draft.
WARNING- This is a draft unlike any other in the Main Event. It was not 'a plan', it was not 'a quirky method', it was just plain taking the top 10 players on my list when my turn was up with no regard for positions or runs.
My main thought being that yearly, half our rosters are 'turned over', I at least wanted the top 10 players to be my players.

First round-
I have pitching at a higher level than offense. My belief is that pitching, quality pitching, is harder to find this year than hitting.
I kds pick 12 first. I wanted quality pitching off the bat and had several pitchers ahead of hitters that were going in the first and second rounds.
I selected Madison Bumgarner.
No qualms. I knew it would be him since I had him ninth on my list and he very seldom went ahead of pick 12.

Second round-
This was my last chance to abandon my 'top of the lists' thoughts.
Chris Sale barely beat Freddie Freeman here.
I could have taken Freeman and had a 'normal' draft.
I didn't.
Now, I was all in on my top of the lists picks. Chris Sale joins Bumgarner.
And you won't believe the way my roster construction looks after the next three rounds.

Third Round-
Nelson Cruz would have been the pick here if not following my plan.
Bumgarner, Freeman, and Cruz looks more appetizing to most than this...
Bumgarner, Sale, and Gary Sanchez.
I believe in Sanchez. That he will hit more homers and get better stats than any other Catcher from the power side of things and may surprise in average.
I know it is not customary to take two pitchers and a catcher with the first three picks.
If agreed, read on, it only gets worse for you

Fourth Round-
I had Matt Carpenter high on my lists and probably would/should take him here.
But, there was a name I had higher and Carpenter and his versatility was kicked aside, hoping he would make it back to me in the next round (he didn't).
I believe Kyle Hendricks is for real and that he will be a Greg Maddox type for a long time.
Yep, four rounds and all I have are battery mates.

Fifth Round-
Carpenter is gone and Maark Trumbo is there.
Roster construction and every fantasy inclination is to roster Trumbo and apply his power to this roster.
I don't take him.
I follow my pre-destined list and laugh at myself as I click the 'Draft' button.
Five rounds and I still don't have one player behind the pitcher on the baseball field.
I select Willson Contreras.
Like pitchers, I had the top four Catchers of Sanchez, Lucroy, Contreras, and Posey high above all others.
The chasm, incredible.
Still, for those claiming value or roster construction, this is a horrible start to a draft.
I'd agree with them. If it wasn't me and my lists, I'd probably criticize as well.
It looks bad, no doubt.

Sixth Round-
I select Kyle Seager and take no time. He was clearly at the top with nobody close.
Easy.

Seventh Round-
Eric Hosmer. Another easy one. He is easily the best player on my board and Boy, was I relieved it wasn't another Pitcher or Catcher.
By the way, if another Catcher had stood out or been a top my list the rest of the draft, IA would have selected him since Contreras has OF positionality.

Eighth Round-
I was wondering if this system would spit out a Closer.
It did here.
Cody Allen was a top of my list.

Ninth Round-
Some NFBC drafters would intimate that I got 'value' with this pick since it beats ADP.
Stupid.
ADP is just stupid. But, that's a rant for another time.
I take Davis with a K. Khris Davis.
First outfielder and it's a guy that'll hit .240
Oh well.

Tenth Round-
You're probably thinking a middle infielder here.
I was !
But, this was the last round in which I was sticking to my list guns.
Tops on my list was one more pitcher.
Tanner Roark.

So, get this...

C- Sanchez
C- Contreras
1B- Hosmer
3B- Seager
OF- KDavis

SP- Bumgarner
SP- Sale
SP- Hendricks
SP- Roark
CL- Co Allen

It goes against almost everything I believe in, in terms of roster construction and the esthetics of a Main Event team.
But, they are 'my' players and that means a lot as well.
It'll be interesting in that I have always had an offensive tilted team.
Not this year

[Bronx Yankees]

Interesting, Dan. I can't endorse the approach, but am curious to see what you did with your team after releasing yourself from the shackles of your list. If you don't mind saying, how did you fill out your team? Did you feel like you were able to round out your team? Most importantly, do you like your team (irrespective of how it may look to others, which really is irrelevant)?

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Interesting, Dan. I can't endorse the approach, but am curious to see what you did with your team after releasing yourself from the shackles of your list. If you don't mind saying, how did you fill out your team? Did you feel like you were able to round out your team? Most importantly, do you like your team (irrespective of how it may look to others, which really is irrelevant)?

Mike

Mike, I wouldn't suggest this approach for anybody else.
After the draft, I bowed my head and and just thought over and over, "What an ugly team, what an ugly team."
And it is, if looking at it through mine and your traditional eyes.
In the end, and after a couple of days of accepting this roster, it's grown on me a bit.
I have no illusions. There is a lot of work to do.

One thing I have found out is how we trick ourselves.
A roster that has blah blah catchers and blah blah blah five six and seven starters is more acceptable than having blah blah infielders and blah blah blah outfielders.
This, in spite of infielders and outfielders being the cheapest and easiest to FAAB during the season.
We tend accept weak catching because weak catching is prevalent in fantasy baseball.
We also accept weak or prospective Starters from 3-7 because of our offensive persuasions.
I'm not saying one or the other is right or wrong, they both could be. We simply don't know.

'Interesting' is the comment I've gotten from everybody.
In fantasy, 'Interesting' means 'I'm glad it's you and not me' when describing a team.
It was tough to stick to my guns.
Especially with Contreras in round five. THAT was the point in which I knew that I had sold myself on the approach.
Rounds 6-10 are 'normal' to the fantasy eye.
The top five, even though they are top five round picks clearly do not belong together as a group for most fantasy eyes.
Hell, not even mine!
It should be riveting to see what happens as the season progresses.

I'll post rounds 10-30 in a later post.

[knuckleheads]

I'll post rounds 10-30 in a later post.

I hope you named this team "Balls". That's what it took and that's what it showed, especially if you had taken the third catcher (which would have been dumb as balls).

Setting aside quibbling over the ranking of 1 or 2 of your players, I'd say you have a solid start to your team and I'm looking forward to seeing how you balanced it out.

I've long since abandoned taking catchers early, however, that is probably because I give them less of a bump for position scarcity than dogma. I love the starting pitching.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Will post the rest of the team and thoughts tomorrow.
I give myself a C+ in filling it out.
At the same time, I've never given myself even a 'B' for any draft.
Tough grader.

[Ando]

Thanks for sharing, Dan. Takes quite a bit of discipline to do what you did. Good luck with this squad & looking forward to see how you filled this out + updates on its progress.

[Edwards Kings]

Great stuff Dan. Funny how I kind of went the opposite way with my ME team (though not really a plan on my part)...will be interesting to see how the two teams compare/contrast as the year goes on.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Ok, let's pick up the rest of this draft...

After round 10, I took stock of what I had done. I knew that roster construction, in and of itself, was now completely out of the picture. The goal, now, was to pick up 'pieces'. These pieces would be offensive players with either power or speed. By now, the players with both were long gone or were BJ Upton types (why is it that on;y celebs want name changes).

In the 11th round, I took Jackie Bradley Jr. I do not think his 26 homers were a fluke last year. At the same time, if somebody offered me his last years stats over this years, I would do it in a heartbeat. I don't believe that he'll get the same rbi and runs without David Ortiz in the middle of the lineup.

12th round came down to two Tigers. Castellanos or JD Martinez. I like Castellanos and he is roster ready over Martinez. A small problem was that it would tie up my corner spot early on an already offensive-needy team. I rolled the dice with JD Martinez and gave myself an assertion that at least later in the year, offensive help would be on the way.

In the 13th round, I over drafted a player who is a personal like.
Brandon Drury,
I believe that he will bring back 7/8 round hitting stats this year while eligible at three positions.
I hope so. This team needs that.

Speed is lacking considerably and I have to address it here in the 14th round and later in the draft. It is so easy to say, "I'll just find speed or Saves on FAAB", however, finding speed and Saves, then being the highest bidder is a lot tougher than that sentence implies.
Anyway, I like the Braves lineup and Ender Inciarte at the top.

In the 15th round, there are only four Closers left. All crappy. We know we need two and a half Closers during the year to get double digit points in league standings in most cases. I count crappy Closers as a 'half Closer' till they prove me wrong.

Half the draft is over.
It is still one ugly looking team. I won't realize till two days afterwards that I have to look at this team from a different perspective. But will explain that in a later post.

In round 16, I went back to taking the highest player on my list and it was a player who fit in with what I was trying to accomplish with a P-P-C-P-C recovery in rounds one through five.
A middle infielder who can hit. Brandon Crawford. I pick him, then have instant regret.
Crawford is the pick for a 'normal' team, not this one.
I should have taken a player with power or speed. Crawford offers neither.
I was glad that he hit fifth in the lineup, but I really should have looked elsewhere.

In the 17th round, I took a player that I have been drafting all year in Draft Championships.
A player who I consider was a total miss by adp this year.
Mitch Haniger.
I believe Haniger will be a top 10 rounds pick next year. And, he has power and speed.
I'm hoping my belief in him is correct.

18th round, I go back to the pitching well and take Folty.
Folty is a work in progress. He reminds me a lot of Jeff Samardzduh when he use to get batters out.

19th round. This one was tough. I tried not to pick 'pieces' that will end up in the minor leagues. This player has a four game window and if he doesn't perform in those four games, he'll, no doubt, be sent packing.
On the other hand, if succeeding, he could put a cherry on my starting staff.
Tyler Glasnow is the pick. My staff can absorb the rough peripherals if failing and the K's will be appreciated.
However, the chance of failure is high, make no bones about it.

20th round and I decided to finish my starting seven.
Lance Lynn.
As with Glasnow, a fail rate is high with Lynn. However, his failure rate comes with health and not under performance.
At least that is the hope.
Lynn was a 10th rounder before Tommy John, I'll take 12/13 round stats in a full season in a heartbeat.

Now, I had a talk with myself and decided to get power or speed pieces the rest of the draft.
Amazing isn't it?
In past years, there was very little power this late in the draft. Now, it abounds and at every position.

In the 21st round, I drafted speed in Travis Jankowski

In the 22nd round, it was speed again with Andrew Toles

The 23rd round was Tyler Anderson before the draft turned to the Jhoulys Chacin's of our world.

24th round was Ryan Schimpf. Schimpf has an uppercut swing that lends itself to home runs and hit for higher average in the minor leagues. His swing is what I wish Jonathon Scoop's swing should look like. Schoop has all that power, wasted on a downward or sometimes even swing plane.

In the 25th round I selected Mitch Moreland. Possibly becoming the only team with two 'Mitch's on it.
Moreland is that guy that will play when the Red Sox have good match-ups vs. right handers.

The 26th round was Danny Espinoza. I benched him this week against questionable Oakland pitching. I think it may take him awhile to get started and move up the lineup. But I think there is real talent hidden here.

27th round. I fell in love with this guy during Spring Training. He's a PITA (PAIN IN THE ASS) to other teams and I like players who are PITA's
Adam Frazier.
I don't know when or where he will play right now, but I know he'll play a lot and at different positions later.
He's a keeper, no matter the draft spot.

28th round. My draft is over. Ia have nobody on my lists that I really feel can help me RIGHT NOW.
So, I look for players that could help later.
I take Daniel Hudson.
The lefty in Pittsburgh, Watson, looks like he has not taken to Closing. As a set-up guy, he was dynamite.
There is a good chance they exchange roles....umm cinnamon rolls...focus, Dan. Finish this post.

29th round- I take a shot on a minor league phenom. He can play 1B flawlessly and can execute all three OF spots with trust.
And he can hit.
Cody Bellinger. It's a roster chance. I already have JD Martinez and players that I do not want to play each week, which is why I have five offensive spots on my bench. But, if Bellinger gets the call, he'll play. And he should hit pretty darned well.

Last round and I took BJ Upton who has already been dropped for Tim Beckham.
I don't care if he signs with Detroit and plays with his brother. He sucked with his brother before.
He has sucked for a long time.
Without injury, he has gone from a third round choice to a 30th round choice without health or age concerns.
Not many players can say that.
Shandler said once a player displays a skill, he owns it.
Upton's chief skill being suckage.

So, there you have it.
I know all the maxims. That Catchers and Pitchers get hurt more than position players.
That Catchers get less at bats.
That a pitcher driven draft has not won the Overall.
And I know that my team in maxing out on power and speed later faces an uphill climb with batting average.

I know all those things. It'll be a tough team to Manage in that there will be a lot of offensive moving parts.
If health becomes a concern early, it could torpedo any chances at all.
But, it's my team and I'll stand by it.
After all, the base of the team comes from the top of my draft list.
If it fails, it won't take long to find the fella responsible.

[knuckleheads]

It was not 'a plan', it was not 'a quirky method', it was just plain taking the top 10 players on my list when my turn was up with no regard for positions or runs.

I don't know, Doughy, this seems like a pretty quirky method to me. I think you said it all when you said, 'After round 10...the players with both (speed and power) were long gone or were BJ Upton types.

The challenge for this team will be to accumulate the necessary counting stats without murdering batting average. And with that, runs scored seems a weak spot regardless.

I particularly liked your rounds 11-14 selections. I think you would expect 800 Ks out of your first four starters, so rather than go with Allen +1Closer, I'd have liked to see you lock up 3 options at closer (then again, maybe Hudson will work out).

I still say bravo for taking a bold path. Maybe it will prove to be successful.

[DOUGHBOYS]

It was not 'a plan', it was not 'a quirky method', it was just plain taking the top 10 players on my list when my turn was up with no regard for positions or runs.

I don't know, Doughy, this seems like a pretty quirky method to me. I think you said it all when you said, 'After round 10...the players with both (speed and power) were long gone or were BJ Upton types.

The challenge for this team will be to accumulate the necessary counting stats without murdering batting average. And with that, runs scored seems a weak spot regardless.

I particularly liked your rounds 11-14 selections. I think you would expect 800 Ks out of your first four starters, so rather than go with Allen +1Closer, I'd have liked to see you lock up 3 options at closer (then again, maybe Hudson will work out).

I still say bravo for taking a bold path. Maybe it will prove to be successful.

We plain don't know.
At this time last year, Jonathon Villar was a late rounder only. Trea Turner, a mere minor leaguer.
We plain don't know what this season will bring.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'm bringing this thread back to update what happened with this team and league....

First, I have never received so many "Interesting" or "Interesting Draft" as a reply to my draft.
As we all know, "Interesting" or "Interesting Draft" are fantasy code words for "Wow, your draft sucked!" or "Good luck with that draft, I'm glad it's not mine!"

I know this draft didn't look good. As a matter of fact, we cannot draft only pitchers and catchers with the first five picks and have a draft look pleasing to us.
We are trained to look for anchors. Pitchers and catchers are not 'anchors' for a fantasy baseball team.
Trout, Altuve, and even Rizzo, or Blackmon later could be conceived as anchors.
I knew I had a team that looked bad to the fantasy eye.
BUT, I liked the pieces I had.
I felt that if injury did not strike that this team could surprise a lot of folks. Maybe even me.

The season started out badly. I expected my pitching to keep me near the top of the standings on that roto side.
Wrong!
Gary Sanchez tore a muscle.
Then, Madison Bumgarner had his tricycle accident.
I was buried in the standings.
Chris Sale and Mitch Haniger were the only two players that were playing above expectations.
Then Haniger went down.
My home runs were dependent on Khris Davis and Ryan Schimpf.
And when depending on Ryan Schimpf, something is most definitely wrong.
My team was 10th, 11th, 12th place and falling.
Injuries make us do stupid things and I am certainly no exception to that rule.
I loved Cody Bellinger, but he became a luxury on a roster that needed playing bodies.
So, I dropped Bellinger for Trey Mancini.
The next week, with my roster more healed from injury, I tried to get Bellinger back, but was second in the bidding.

My team floundered.
My pitching, bolstered by Sale and Lance Lynn was average. My hitting was dismal.
I wondered if I had really screwed things up.
Especially when Bellinger started mashing like Babe Ruth.
April was a lost month. I hoped that things would turn around after that wretched month.
On April 23, I bought Andrew Triggs and Jason Vargas.
The next week, Marwin Gonzalez.
I hoped for better.

Hosmer and Seager started to hit. Sanchez came back from injury and started to hit.
JD Martinez was back in the Tigers lineup and he was contributing.
I could see my team starting to look better and had hope as I got back to the middle of the pack in the standings.
I picked up Tommy Pham and dropped him later.
He wasn't hitting that well at the time and thought St Louis would do what they always did with Tommy Pham.
They didn't send him down.
And when dropped, he started hitting.
Egg on my face.
Bellinger and Pham. Two of the feel good stories of fantasy baseball for 2017.
And I dropped them.
What an idiot!

The good thing is that I dropped Pham for Andrelton Simmons.
And a funny thing happened.
My team caught fire.
Sale, Vargas, and Lynn were throwing great.
Rodney and Allen were getting Saves.
And my team started to kill it on offense.
JD Martinez was streaking. Hosmer and Seager were hitting well.
Sanchez and Contreras were hot.
So was Marwin Gonzalez.
My team moved up to fourth and fifth.
At the time, the leader in our league was the Overall leader.
I felt like I may be playing for second place.

My team was in next to last place in stolen bases before picking up Simmons. He helped move me up a few notches.
A timely pick up of Ben Revere did the same thing.
But I was still on the outside and looking in at a cash finish.
My team needed a good pick up or another hot streak.
In early August, I picked up Edwin Jackson. He gave me some much needed Wins.

It was in Early August that our league started changing as well.
Long Dong managed by William Forrester who had the Overall lead earlier in the year, began dropping in league points.
He had gome 'All in' as far as FAAB was concerned and was out of money with only single digit dollars to cover double digit weeks.
Red Mule had the best pitching in the league, but couldn't find an answer for hitting.
Don Diego was a well balanced team, managed by Mike Matyja and was about to take over first place from Long Dong.
And my team was hovering around fourth or fifth.
Until it got hot.
JD Martinez, Sanchez, Khris Davis, Contrearas, Mancini, and new pick up Rhys Hoskins seemingly hit home runs every day.
RBI started coming in by the bunches.
In week 24, my team hit 26 homers and had 75 rbi,
An average of four homers a day and 10 rbi.
The rbi zoomed me to the top of that category and it never looked back.
The homers put me near the top there and I zoomed to second in our league.

The cash disadvantage was too much for Long Dong. He dropped out of contention.
Red Mule tried every week to make purchases to improve both his hitting and Saves deficiencies, but it was too little too late.
It was between Don Diego and my team.
Don Diego had a substantial lead, but not one that couldn't be caught.
My team continued its hitting binge, but my pitching was spotty at best.
But, in the 25th week, I got six Wins and five Saves.
With two weeks to go, I had finally tasted first place for a day.
Sure, it was only by half a point and only for one day. But, at least I knew it was a possibility.

There was only one category in which I could gain multiple points.
Saves.
Earlier in the year, I benched Rodney.
He had just gotten blown up and the Diamondbacks were going on a road trip to American League parks.
Result?
Four Saves on my bench.
Believe me, I thought about that as I sized up my needs to win the league.
I had FAAB'ed Dyson and Minor. Dyson had provided some Saves, but I was afraid to use him.
Minor was a shot in the dark. A hope.
Don Diego was two behind me in Saves, but was cornered by Wins and Strikeouts.
He had to maintain or pass somebody in those categories.
I had the freedom to throw all four of my Closers.
Rodney did not pitch that final week.
As I was afraid of, Dyson got bombed.
Cody Allen got one Save.
Mike Minor got four.
It was just enough to push me past two teams and tie another.

I believe I was only in first place for five days during the whole year,
But there I was at the end of the year. On top by a mere half point.
I believe that Don Diego had the slightly better team.
And Red Mule who finished third bettered my draft day top heavy pitching staff by far.
But, I was lucky enough to finish first, 123.5 to 123

My team finished second Overall in RBI.
Can you imagine?
A team that started out with three pitchers and two catchers.
A team that dropped both Cody Bellinger and Tommy Phan.
A team that struggled for the first part of the season with offense.
That team could finish second to every team in RBI?
Fascinating.

This team showed me a lot.
It showed me that a team does not have to look good on draft day.
It showed that in fantasy baseball, pieces are sometimes better than the sum total of their parts.
Roster construction is overrated.
We lose half our rosters due to injury and underperformance anyway, why do we need roster construction on opening day?
We don't.
FAAB, although she is a bitch to deal with, is a friend.
It fills half our roster.
We give way too much credence to original rosters.
This team showed me that.
It also showed me to keep grinding.
Just keep grinding.
We can overcome mistakes.
I've listed more than a few here in this post.
The reward?
Nothing like it.

[JohnP]

Wow. Nice work! Congrats. Thanks for posting in April and again now. I will admit I was one of those that read your initial post in April and said "that team has no chance"....I mean....."good luck". I'm also a fellow Pham dropper.

[Edwards Kings]

Well done Dan! Proves what a great in-season manager you are.

[mbendar16]

Congrats Dan on your title. The closest league of all of the Main Events. Pretty impressive to drop bellinger and pham and overcome to win.

[Navel Lint]

Wow. Nice work! Congrats. Thanks for posting in April and again now. I will admit I was one of those that read your initial post in April and said "that team has no chance".....................

Me too.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Hey, I know it looked ugly too!

We need luck as well as skill.
Rodney, though he had his moments, kept his job all year. I didn't have to faab expensive relief.
JD Martinez was taken in the 12th round because of a lingering foot injury at the time.
Except Bumgarner, my top 15 picks all stayed relatively healthy and were rostered till late in the season.

Luck is so necessary. I believe that skill still edges out luck in our NFBC game. But the retention rate and playing against most of the same folks each year, makes luck a little bit of a larger percentage each year.
I believe that in season long fantasy football with its high attrition rates that luck has overtaken skill as THE component to win.
Thanks for the congrats, Fellas! I know that lady luck smiled on me a lot