Mock 3 Team

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 4:29 am

I realize that this draft was not prefect. We had two or three teams that were not drafted by same person all the way through. That said, it is not a crazy look at how a draft might go down, were it held at this juncture. The first rd is a bit off, but otherwise the picks were mostly reasonable.

I was actually going wit s strategy to see how my team would end up looking and decided to stay with it even when I was tempted to stray. The thought was that there are numerous solid #2-3 type starting pitchers who could form the basis for a solid rotation. Many would be available in rds 8-13. I also feel with NFBC requiring 9 pitchers,it is good to have one "ace" type, to build the other 6-8 sps around. So I wanted to go 1-3 with hitters and then take one of my top tier guys at 4, 3 more hitters and then a series of sps in rds 8-13. I also wanted a SS and a C in top 13 rds.

C: Doumit, Flores

1b: Davis

2b: Matsui

3b: Cantu

ss: Tulo

MI: Guzman

CI: Giambi

DH Murphy

OF: Braun, Quentin. Grandy, Crisp, Span

Sp: Webb, Shields, Scherzer, kershaw, Lilly, Ubaldo

RP: Gonzalez, Qualls, Rodney

My first three choices ended up being OF when Aramis went in 3rd right before me. Quentin is too early but that was on purpose as I wanted to ensure I got him. I took Webb over Peavy as my "stud" mainly because of Peavy's uncertainty and would not want him in 4th if he is on Pods.

My staff of Webb, Shields, Scherzer, Lilly, Kershaw, Ubaldo has some youthful upside and some stabilty. ALl have 185 K potential, which is a requirement for all of my SPs.

I hate drafting closers early. With the uncertainty over so many teams, it was tough at this juncture, but Qualls, Gonzalez, Rodney should get me middle of pack, which is all I ever want out of relievers.

I think I got solid contributors late: Crisp 16 as a lead off guy, Cantu 17 is only 28 years old and already has two big seasons under his belt, Kaz 18 should get me 20-25 steals and 100 runs from 2b, contrary to what people are saying, Giambi 19 is a risk, but cant deny 35 HR 100 rbi potential even at 38 David Murphy 20 was having breakout yr before injury and plays in great lineup, Flores at 21 has as much chance of being solid as guys taken 6 rds earlier, Guzman 22 has hit over 300 for 2 straight yrs and could be leadoff guy. Rodney has good chance of being closer in Detr

Overall, Ithink that I made some mistakes, but that I would take this team as base to go into season...no problem

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 5:31 am

This was definitely not a team I would draft come March, but I wanted to test a longheld theory. Long and short, looking at the team, solid staff, light in rbi's and AVG. Power and runs are ok. SB's are a little light, but not as much as rbi's and BA.

I was actually shocked that the offense wasn't in worse shape.

C-Wieters, Suzuki

1b-Gonzalez

2b-K Johnson

SS-Barmes

3b-Glaus

CI-Ad LaRoche

MI-F Lopez

OF-McLouth, Pence, Damon, Rivera, J Upton

U-J Rivera

P-Lincecum, CC, Billingsley, Jurrjens, Lannan, A Miller, C Wood, R Soriano

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 5:34 am

i like that team and your draft a lot. you grabbed some obvious value. funny when you listen to peoples logic on players. cantu is an example. in the other 2 mocks he is round 8-10. actually past his 2008 value. he is eligable at 1st and 3rd. one guy said to me that he has had only 2 really good years out of 4. ya- and about 50 guys drafted ahead of him in this mock have had 0 that is zero really good years. nice draft.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 5:43 am

What a long, strange, trip it's been. Here's another team from mock #3. Decent power, speed OK, a few good arms.

C Navarro, Max Ramirez

1B Texeira

2B Iwamura

SS S. Drew

3B Mark Reynolds

CI B. Wood

MI Lowrie

UT Ortiz

OF Soriano, Abreu, Burrell, Spilborghs, Bourn

SP Beckett, Dice-K, Sheets, R. Johnson, Penny, Wakefield

RP Valverde, Capps, Percival

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 5:46 am

Thanks, Headhunter. The slow drafts are actually very good practice because it allows you to break down your own thought processes. I know Braun will not be available at 11 and that I will not be able to get the value I got in a real draft.

North Cal, I looked at your draft. I assume that when you say that you wouldnt go this rte in real draft you mean CC/Lince at 1/2?

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 5:59 am

Yes, you are correct. I wouldn't go Tim/CC. Which in effect, effected my entire draft:P

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 6:53 am

I know that this is not proper etiquette in this venue, but I think that you can have a successful season with the strategy of going SP early, if it is carried out well. I do not know whether teams that have won their leagues and/or nationally have ever won anything or come close, but I think if you draft smart and make good pick ups (same as in traditional strategy) it can be done.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:02 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

I know that this is not proper etiquette in this venue, but I think that you can have a successful season with the strategy of going SP early, if it is carried out well. I do not know whether teams that have won their leagues and/or nationally have ever won anything or come close, but I think if you draft smart and make good pick ups (same as in traditional strategy) it can be done. Mighty Men, I believe (and someone correct me if I'm wrong), went Santana/Peavy with 1-2 last year and won the league he was in. However, IIRC, he was lucky/informed enough to draft McClouth and Quentin with late picks, which made a huge difference.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:11 am

Yes but in order to win, REGARDLESS of your draft strategy, there have to be a late round flier or two that pan out AND a stud free agent pick up or two. My point is that even if you draft traditionally, i order to win, you will need some cheap studs.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:32 am

you got it

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:56 am

Hey guys - it was an interesting draft - the 23rds meant that we forced some positional picks at the end - but here is my team from the 13 slot. I liked this offense a lot actually and Tavarez was a nice SB boost late. As for the rotation - I was having some fun with my all Latino rotation - but aside from D Cab - who probably shouldn't be drafted this high(if at all) I like the fact that they will rack up the K's. Bullpen is set with two top closers both taken later (9th and 11th rd). Feel like I could have spent the next seven rds collecting closers in waiting and up and comers to help the ERA and Whip for this staff.:

C - Mike Napoli, Ramon Hernandez

1B- Carlos Pena

2B- Ian Kinsler

SS- Orlando Cabrera

3B- Evan Longoria

MI- Edgar Renteria

CI- Pablo Sandoval

OF- Nick Markakis, Vlad Guerrero,Chris B Young

Nick Swisher, Willy Tavarez

UT- Kendry Morales

SP- E Volquez, F Liriano, M Parra, J Cueto,

D Cabrera and Gio Gonzalez

RP- F Cordero, B Jenks, Ryan Tucker

[ January 05, 2009, 02:17 PM: Message edited by: Ryan Carey ]

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 8:17 am

Team has some nice upside Ryan. Im not trying to bash, but why is Swisher still getting top half of the draft love when he has now been unstartable for 2 years? Your SP has a good amt of upside and K's and your closers are solid. Renteria and O Cab are the two fall back ss options I try to avoid since their upside is downright boring (and probably in the past) C Young has me puzzled, but Im leaning toward the theory that he just has too many holes that have been figured out. Tavares was great pick but as was pointed out he will probably be gone in first ten rounds now that he has signed.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 8:26 am

Can't disagree with Young or Swisher as both picks were associated with an automatic GAG reflex.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 8:34 am

Ryan, It's funny, I use my home 12 team league as a gauge...when a guy starts being benched and/or dropped in that league, it is time to start considering whether I want to own him in NFBC. FOr instance, Andruw was dropped in 2006 and rode a bench all 07...so there was no way I was taking him in 08. Simialarly, Swish was benched and then dropped in 07, so when 08 rolled around and the pundits started predicting a turn around in 08, I was very dubious even though Chi ballpark is advantageous.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 9:26 am

Yeah - I think he will get the automatic Yankee bounce - just like Tex, CC and Aj will as well. But I also think he will bounce back somewhat at least average wise - and the Yanks will be slotting him in the 6-7-8 range in that lineup - so the pressure will be off him somewhat I think. The at-bats should be there for him though to produce.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 9:42 am

As you and I know, from reading the Post/News and listening to FAN, Swish is going to be skewered by the NY media. What is going to happen to that guy, who couldnt produce in Oak or Chi, when Mike Lupica starts screaming for his benching on a team built to win yesterday? I will not touch him in the draft unless it is at an uber discount.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 11:32 am

Schwks ,i like your team a lot.I like your strategy with your pitching paying for one stud then getting pitchers with strike out upside.All those pichers you drafted i like a lot.

Shields

Scherzer

Kershaw

Lilly

Ubaldo

Your outfield is strong

Braun

Granderson

Quenton

and like how you scooped up Span.

Cantu and Crisp agree great value for the 16th 17th round.

Would have liked one stud closer but you cant have everything.Still Qualls and Gonzalez could be ok and Rodney in the 20th round is worth the gamble.

Too bad this wasnt a money league.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:24 pm

All the talk of Swisher made me think of a couple of things.

Last year when Swisher was traded from Oakland to the ChiSox, Crazy Like a Fox posted some outlandish numbers, one of which was that Swisher would score 120 runs if he got to hit second. He could have played 324 games hitting second and wouldn't have scored them. I don't know whether CLAF fell for the comeback theory in that once you're good, you'll be good again or the ballpark factor of moving from Oakland to Chicago. We'll have to ask CLAF.

The second thing was how the media ran with how big and strong Swisher had gotten chopping wood at a farm before spring training.

Seriously, my first thought was that the wood wasn't moving. The LAST thing Swisher needed to improve on was power. If a switch-hitter hits under .200 on one side of the plate (Swisher "hit" .197 vs lefties), does he still really count as a switch-hitter? Really, with the holes in his swing from both sides of the plate on any pitch with a bend in it, Swisher would have been a lot better off playing wiffle ball before spring training.

This may sound like Swisher bashing but it really isn't. A lot of athletes would rather show off their "guns" and be a physical specimen than work on what is really needed. I've heard that Swisher is a great teammate and has the drive to succeed. He could. Priorities would be the first step.

[ January 05, 2009, 06:26 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 12:52 am

If I could give Swisher one bit of advice it would be this:

Prior to the pitcher delivering his pitch, don't look to the brim of your helmet or to the heavens or where ever you seem to look, try and look out to the mound for the pitcher's release point so that you can quickly identify spin and what pitch is coming.

Just ask Pedro Cerano, "Look, I good to you. I stick up for you. You no help me now, I say, fu** you, Joboo. I do it myself."

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:25 am

if swisher was "a great team guy" ozzie wouldn't have been so down on him. he may be a great teammate- but he is not a great team guy. i do think jeter will correct that- unless swish moves to the a rod side of the dugout.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:32 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

if swisher was "a great team guy" ozzie wouldn't have been so down on him. he may be a great teammate- but he is not a great team guy. i do think jeter will correct that- unless swish moves to the a rod side of the dugout. Yeah, Ozzie is a great judge of charachter.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 3:02 am

he is in my opinion. he is a goof; i agree, but he has been around some great managers. he was with the braves- i doubt they hire him if they think he is a bad actor. also- don't know if team player and character are synonomous. ray lewis can play for my football team any day- but in society he is not a character guy. same with john elway by the way.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 3:11 am

Thanks Eddie...the strategy was borrowed from a previous successful participant in NFBC, and is not my own.

I looked at Swish's #s from last year. I was surprised that they were better then I remembered. The runs, rbis and HRs were all acceptable. But to support a 219 average and what seem like month long droughts in even getting a base hit, I think he needs like 45 HR.

Those droughts are precisely what will kill him in NY. Because when he goes through one of them, he will be crucified across the back pages. Girardi, with his job on the line given the monster payroll, will be forced to have little patience with his rally-killing ways and bench him. Remember, now that Tex is in the fold, the Yanks have surplus of OF/DH types: Damon, Matsui, Nady. Swish's defense is not good enough to keep him in center in the face of subpar offense.

My line on Swish: 248 19 65 with under 450 ABs.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 3:21 am

Here's my team out of the #3 spot...

When I picked Kouzmanoff I forgot we needed a starting roster in round 23 so instead of another catcher I have Kouz.

C - J. Baker

1B - A. Pujols

2B - B. Roberts

3B - C. Jones / K. Kouzmanoff

SS - R. Theriot

CI - J. Loney / K. Kouzmanoff

MI - J. Hairston

OF - C. Lee, J. Dye, J. Pierre, M. Cameron, R. Winn

UT - J. Thome

P - D. Haren, R. Oswalt, F. Hernandez, M. Garza, B. Fuentes, A. Harang, H. Kuroda, C. Buchholz, A. Galarraga

Very happy with the way the draft progressed... yes, I only have one closer but I believe I got a very good one later than he should have been available, and the closer turnover being what it is, I will easily be able to find saves on the waiver wire. The one thing I would change would be to target catchers earlier... it seems I was always 1 round too late when I targeted a catcher.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 3:40 am

Chipper, Thome and even Albert Pujols and the elbow are more risk than I would want to take into the season. With Jones and Thome it is no longer a question of if they will get injured but now when and for how long - the headaches that they can bring you in season just aren't worth it to draft them both.

Also - Pierre to me is not a guy that I want to be counting on as a starter - if I could grab him as a reserve - I might consider it.

I like your pitching more than your lineup - with the exception of King Felix - but I admit that has more to do with him burning me now two years in a row. But - you know going in the W's are going to be hard to come by.